Conquer Club

Leading indicators

\\OFF-TOPIC// conversations about everything that has nothing to do with Conquer Club.

Moderator: Community Team

Forum rules
Please read the Community Guidelines before posting.

Re: Leading indicators

Postby jusplay4fun on Fri Mar 18, 2022 12:57 am

HitRed wrote:Some Saudi oil may be priced in Chinese Yuan. Not the end of the world but a crack in the dominance of the US dollar. BTW, the Congress is cracking the dollar too. Passed another 1.5 Trillion. Inflation calling.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-dolla ... p_catchall


I have been warning of the dangers of inflation for a while, as has Duk, in this and another thread. Both threads, this and the one with the posted link below, basically speak to very similar issues:
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=236960&start=100

In the meantime, stupid progressive liberals advocate even more deficit spending, which is a main driving force (cause) in our current inflation in the US Economy.

As predicted, and signaled by the Fed, the interest rates are beginning to rise. The Fed is finally taking MONETARY action(s) via the Prime interest rate to slow inflation.

Also:
Fed Takes First Step Toward End of Pandemic Measures
The Federal Reserve is dealing with high inflation at a time when millions of workers remain on the job market’s sidelines. Wednesday’s announcement that it will slow bond purchases is a step toward more normal monetary policy.

Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, laid out a plan to slow the asset-buying program as the economy continued to heal from pandemic disruptions and inflation remained sharply elevated

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/03/business/economy/fed-taper-bond-buying.html
JP4Fun

Image
User avatar
Captain jusplay4fun
 
Posts: 8027
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2013 8:21 pm
Location: Virginia

Re: Leading indicators

Postby HitRed on Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:24 am

Saudis are sure not happy.

---

BTW, bought 2k of silver today.
User avatar
Captain HitRed
 
Posts: 5135
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2015 12:16 pm

Re: Leading indicators

Postby mookiemcgee on Mon Mar 21, 2022 3:15 pm

HitRed wrote:Saudis are sure not happy.

---

BTW, bought 2k of silver today.


You own any rare earth or nickle? I've been scooping up some potash stocks this past month
Dukasaur wrote: That was the night I broke into St. Mike's Cathedral and shat on the Archibishop's desk
User avatar
Colonel mookiemcgee
 
Posts: 5682
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2013 2:33 pm
Location: Northern CA

Re: Leading indicators

Postby HitRed on Mon Mar 21, 2022 3:55 pm

I did look up Russian exports and fertilizer was on the list. I didn't look into the stocks though. Look at those 52 week lows.

https://miningfeeds.com/potash-mining-r ... f-america/
User avatar
Captain HitRed
 
Posts: 5135
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2015 12:16 pm

Re: Leading indicators

Postby mookiemcgee on Mon Mar 21, 2022 3:59 pm

HitRed wrote:I did look up Russian exports and fertilizer was on the list. I didn't look into the stocks though. Look at those 52 week lows.

https://miningfeeds.com/potash-mining-r ... f-america/


Mosaic is the main one I've been accumulating, some stock, some options. I used to own alot of a candian one but I guess it went private a few years back.
Dukasaur wrote: That was the night I broke into St. Mike's Cathedral and shat on the Archibishop's desk
User avatar
Colonel mookiemcgee
 
Posts: 5682
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2013 2:33 pm
Location: Northern CA

Re: Leading indicators

Postby HitRed on Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:13 pm

I would have guessed it was all the Russian invasion but Potash was already at a 13 year high in January.

https://investingnews.com/potash-outlook-2022/
User avatar
Captain HitRed
 
Posts: 5135
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2015 12:16 pm

Re: Leading indicators

Postby JdeV 100 on Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:53 pm

Easy Mookie, belatedly thanks for your reply about the PayPal crypto. In future I'll take your advice, since idk what they did. It turned a very slight profit and the transfer back to cash was clear and seemed inexpensive so maybe they front-load their cut - coulda been worse.
Captain JdeV 100
 
Posts: 134
Joined: Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:43 pm

Re: Leading indicators

Postby mookiemcgee on Mon Mar 21, 2022 5:37 pm

JdeV 100 wrote:Easy Mookie, belatedly thanks for your reply about the PayPal crypto. In future I'll take your advice, since idk what they did. It turned a very slight profit and the transfer back to cash was clear and seemed inexpensive so maybe they front-load their cut - coulda been worse.


Yeah I mean I haven't used paypal, but my understanding is that on their 'price listing' page they show a real up to the minute price for things like BTC, but when you click through to actually 'buy now' the price you purchase at is slightly inflated (say 1% or so) so you basically always overpay. The basic version of Coinbase does pretty much the same thing.

Keeping coins on a proper exchange isn't ideal, but for small amounts it's fine and at least you can put in buy/sell orders based on actual price (if you use coinbase, use coinbase pro... it's exactly the same account login info but with WAY lower trade fees... .6% vs 2% and allows for limit orders so they don't screw you on exchange rates)

Basically what their goal is on paypal is to seem like its 'low fees' but they are making a killing on the phony exchange rates. Kinda like 20 years ago when you would exchange money to foreign currency at the airport. Low fees are what they advertise, but you end up way worse because of shit exchange rates
Dukasaur wrote: That was the night I broke into St. Mike's Cathedral and shat on the Archibishop's desk
User avatar
Colonel mookiemcgee
 
Posts: 5682
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2013 2:33 pm
Location: Northern CA

Re: Leading indicators

Postby mookiemcgee on Mon Mar 21, 2022 5:41 pm

HitRed wrote:I would have guessed it was all the Russian invasion but Potash was already at a 13 year high in January.

https://investingnews.com/potash-outlook-2022/


Yeah price of potash has outpaced price action for companies that deal in it so far... presumably due to increase transport/production costs?
Dukasaur wrote: That was the night I broke into St. Mike's Cathedral and shat on the Archibishop's desk
User avatar
Colonel mookiemcgee
 
Posts: 5682
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2013 2:33 pm
Location: Northern CA

Re: Leading indicators

Postby mookiemcgee on Mon Mar 21, 2022 5:56 pm

Not too often you see the Fed speaking this clearly and plainly...I do think the market has baked alot of this in already, but it's a little jarring when he comes right out and says it

J. Pow wrote:inflation is much too high


We are gonna finish the year with 1.5% increase in interest rates or more in 2022 :shock:



https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/03/21/pow ... dress.html
Dukasaur wrote: That was the night I broke into St. Mike's Cathedral and shat on the Archibishop's desk
User avatar
Colonel mookiemcgee
 
Posts: 5682
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2013 2:33 pm
Location: Northern CA

Re: Leading indicators

Postby jusplay4fun on Mon Mar 21, 2022 6:54 pm

mookiemcgee wrote:Not too often you see the Fed speaking this clearly and plainly...I do think the market has baked alot of this in already, but it's a little jarring when he comes right out and says it

J. Pow wrote:inflation is much too high


We are gonna finish the year with 1.5% increase in interest rates or more in 2022 :shock:



https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/03/21/pow ... dress.html


Strategic Goals of the Fed:

Strategic Goals
The Board has six primary strategic goals with interrelated and mutually reinforcing elements:

conduct monetary policy that promotes the achievement of the Federal Reserve's statutory objectives of maximum employment and stable prices
and 5 more goals,....


https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/gpra/2011-mission-values-and-goals-of-the-board-of-governors.htm

Just in case you do not know, stable prices does not include significant inflation, as we in the USA are experiencing NOW.
JP4Fun

Image
User avatar
Captain jusplay4fun
 
Posts: 8027
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2013 8:21 pm
Location: Virginia

Re: Leading indicators

Postby mookiemcgee on Mon Mar 21, 2022 7:07 pm

jusplay4fun wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:Not too often you see the Fed speaking this clearly and plainly...I do think the market has baked alot of this in already, but it's a little jarring when he comes right out and says it

J. Pow wrote:inflation is much too high


We are gonna finish the year with 1.5% increase in interest rates or more in 2022 :shock:



https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/03/21/pow ... dress.html


Strategic Goals of the Fed:

Strategic Goals
The Board has six primary strategic goals with interrelated and mutually reinforcing elements:

conduct monetary policy that promotes the achievement of the Federal Reserve's statutory objectives of maximum employment and stable prices
and 5 more goals,....


https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/gpra/2011-mission-values-and-goals-of-the-board-of-governors.htm

Just in case you do not know, stable prices does not include significant inflation, as we in the USA are experiencing NOW.


Inflation = prices go up over time ... I mean that is the definition of the word, so yes stable prices = non-inflationinary environment... by definition.

Thanks Trump, for spending four years building an inflation bomb. Thanks Trump for spending more in 4 years than every other republican administration in history. Thanks Trump for driving away cheap labor and making it harder for US business to compete globally. Thanks Trump for creating tarrifs to drive up the costs of goods to consumers (globally) and causing massive shock to the supply chain which was then amplified by the pandemic.

and Thank J.Pow for admitting to the problem. They say that is the first step to recovery...
Dukasaur wrote: That was the night I broke into St. Mike's Cathedral and shat on the Archibishop's desk
User avatar
Colonel mookiemcgee
 
Posts: 5682
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2013 2:33 pm
Location: Northern CA

Re: Leading indicators

Postby HitRed on Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:22 am

China's inflation rate is just below 1% currently. So this is a dollar issue.

Consumer inflation came in at 0.9% in February, unchanged from January’s figure.
User avatar
Captain HitRed
 
Posts: 5135
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2015 12:16 pm

Re: Leading indicators

Postby HitRed on Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:08 pm

Starts slow then rolls!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUi8Th1bTEs

—-

The current monetary regime began to "crumble" when the G7 countries seized Russia's foreign exchange reserves following its invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
User avatar
Captain HitRed
 
Posts: 5135
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2015 12:16 pm

Re: Leading indicators

Postby jusplay4fun on Wed Mar 23, 2022 2:24 am

Basically the USA has been printing money and giving it away to states, individuals, and criminal "shysters" who defraud the Government. Such is deficit spending. And the Crazy Liberals want to give away MORE MONEY for our children and grandchildren have to pay THE HUGE interest payment. Forget paying off the Debt itself.

Net interest payments on the debt are estimated to total $393.5 billion this fiscal year, or 8.7% of all federal outlays. (The government projects it will pay out a total of $593.1 billion in interest in fiscal 2019, which ends Sept. 30, but that includes interest credited to Social Security and other government trust funds.)


And with the Fed raising interest rate on the Prime, where will the amount go? UP..! of course.

also, same source:
The nation’s debt is now bigger than its gross domestic product, which was an estimated $21.06 trillion in the first quarter of 2019. Debt as a share of GDP grew throughout the 1980s and early 1990s, then leveled off before rising steeply during and after the 2008 financial crisis. The overall debt load has just about equaled or exceeded GDP since late 2012, which had not previously been the case since the end of World War II.


A good read here, with good graphs; source:
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/24/facts-about-the-national-debt/#:~:text=Net%20interest%20payments%20on%20the,fiscal%202019%2C%20which%20ends%20Sept.

This post could have easily been put in the thread about Inflation being worse that indicated, or whatever title Duk used.
JP4Fun

Image
User avatar
Captain jusplay4fun
 
Posts: 8027
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2013 8:21 pm
Location: Virginia

Re: Leading indicators

Postby mookiemcgee on Sat Mar 26, 2022 1:53 am

Dukasaur wrote: That was the night I broke into St. Mike's Cathedral and shat on the Archibishop's desk
User avatar
Colonel mookiemcgee
 
Posts: 5682
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2013 2:33 pm
Location: Northern CA

Re: Leading indicators

Postby HitRed on Sat Mar 26, 2022 2:08 am

mookiemcgee wrote:https://goldiraguide.org/china-gold-reserves-1900-tonnes-14000-tonnes-30000-tonnes/


+1
User avatar
Captain HitRed
 
Posts: 5135
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2015 12:16 pm

Previous

Return to Acceptable Content

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users