Russian Election

[Baron Von PWN]

Some pretty interesting preliminary results from the Russian parliamentary election. The party of Power (United Russia) has so far only received about 49% of the vote. This is pretty surprising as last time they had received 64% .

What this means is there could be more opposition parliamentarians than United Russia parliamentarians. The opposition is pretty factitious being, communists, Radical Nationalists, and social democrats so it is unlikely they will be able to mount an effective challenge. What is interesting is that it shows a pretty major dissatisfaction with united Russia, and perhaps suggests Putin may have more trouble than was expected for his re-election.

The results are still preliminary but United Russia may not get its majority this time which would be quite something indeed. Maybe Russian democracy isn't as dead as once thought.

[BigBallinStalin]

Remember how Ron Paul ranked high in those initial straw polls?


Give the Russian state media some time to work on the minds of the public, and we'll have Putin back in no time. Russia needs a Strong Hand anyway.

[Army of GOD]

Does it not matter who wins because Putin will still be the head guy anyway?

[Baron Von PWN]

Remember how Ron Paul ranked high in those initial straw polls?


Give the Russian state media some time to work on the minds of the public, and we'll have Putin back in no time. Russia needs a Strong Hand anyway.

These aren't straw polls but rather official Russian Parliamentary results. However as more polls have been reporting in United Russia has achieved 50%. I agree with you that is the probable outcome. However this loss at the polls, and I do consider it a loss considering the considerable tools available to United Russia, is quite extraordinary. Combine that with Putin being booed at a public sporting event a few weeks back and there is some potential for some interesting developments.

Regardless I am quite impressed United Russia suffered such a loss despite all the biases in its favour. Russia thinks it needs a strong hand, because it has always had a system which requires strong hands. Though I'm fairly certain you are just repeating a favourite Russian trope.

[Baron Von PWN]

Does it not matter who wins because Putin will still be the head guy anyway?

Sort-of. The Russian president has extraordinary powers, but without Duma support his hands can be tied to a certain extent. He would be forced to rule by decree which is bad optics and could stir up more problems. It would also prevent him from being able to alter the constitution.

Also Putin could theoretically lose the election. Though this is highly unlikely as the other candidates are a variety of crazy and threatening contenders tend to find themselves facing a surprising amount of legal troubles. However if discontent with Putin is indeed on the rise as recent events may suggest you might actually get to see Putin sweat a bit in the election, or who knows even face a viable opponent.

[Pope Joan]

These aren't straw polls but rather official Russian Parliamentary results. However as more polls have been reporting in United Russia has achieved 50%. I agree with you that is the probable outcome. However this loss at the polls, and I do consider it a loss considering the considerable tools available to United Russia, is quite extraordinary.

The poll was a joke Places like Chechnya got 95% turn out with 99.5% for United Russia, the party of swindlers and thieves. Look at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6lyKyyZcOk
where two journalists got into a gang of Putin's falcons and showed all the world what is actually going on. For those struggling with Russian, they were a team of about 10 "voters", who were paid 1000 roubles to vote in 7 different places throwing in 10 ballot boxes at every place. That would be 7000 votes for United Russia. 100 teams like this that voted undetected would give 1% to Putin, and this would cost Gazprom just 1,000,000 roubles!!

Here is another resource with voting by regions:
http://www.gazeta.ru/maps/elections2011/russia.shtml
You can see that Putin got 47% of the vote in Moscow, which is probably about right.
Moscow gets the lion share of the oil money and should naturally have the biggest support
for Putin. Now look at the regions. Many give 30-40% to Putin which is also about right.
Then you have a group where support of Putin is well above 47%: from slightly unbelievable 55% in Astrakhan to fantastic 99.5% in Chechnya. Clearly, the elections in these regions were manipulated to a different extent

I guess that observers from leading democracies like Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Zimbabwe will find these elections fair and the rest of the world can safely conclude that United Russian won and stole just about 10% of the votes Long LIve Vputin!!

[Pope Joan]

Also Putin could theoretically lose the election. Though this is highly unlikely as the other candidates are a variety of crazy and threatening contenders tend to find themselves facing a surprising amount of legal troubles. However if discontent with Putin is indeed on the rise as recent events may suggest you might actually get to see Putin sweat a bit in the election, or who knows even face a viable opponent.

Impossible! With United Russia polling about 40% fairly (see my previous poll), and Putin's much better level of support than his party, and ability to manipulate the results in a number of regions,
it is more likely that Putin is abducted by aliens than he would not win the presidential poll in the first round...

[BigBallinStalin]

Remember how Ron Paul ranked high in those initial straw polls?


Give the Russian state media some time to work on the minds of the public, and we'll have Putin back in no time. Russia needs a Strong Hand anyway.

These aren't straw polls but rather official Russian Parliamentary results. However as more polls have been reporting in United Russia has achieved 50%. I agree with you that is the probable outcome. However this loss at the polls, and I do consider it a loss considering the considerable tools available to United Russia, is quite extraordinary. Combine that with Putin being booed at a public sporting event a few weeks back and there is some potential for some interesting developments.

Regardless I am quite impressed United Russia suffered such a loss despite all the biases in its favour. Russia thinks it needs a strong hand, because it has always had a system which requires strong hands. Though I'm fairly certain you are just repeating a favourite Russian trope.

Oh yeah, I'm repeating it! It feels so good!

That's a good point about the straw polls != parliamentary results. I was assuming that parliamentary results merely reflect voter preferences, but do not ultimately determine the Presidential Winrar.

Do Russian political parties vote on the president? Why do the proportions matter for Putin's chances of "re-election"?

[Baron Von PWN]

These aren't straw polls but rather official Russian Parliamentary results. However as more polls have been reporting in United Russia has achieved 50%. I agree with you that is the probable outcome. However this loss at the polls, and I do consider it a loss considering the considerable tools available to United Russia, is quite extraordinary.

The poll was a joke Places like Chechnya got 95% turn out with 99.5% for United Russia, the party of swindlers and thieves. Look at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6lyKyyZcOk
where two journalists got into a gang of Putin's falcons and showed all the world what is actually going on. For those struggling with Russian, they were a team of about 10 "voters", who were paid 1000 roubles to vote in 7 different places throwing in 10 ballot boxes at every place. That would be 7000 votes for United Russia. 100 teams like this that voted undetected would give 1% to Putin, and this would cost Gazprom just 1,000,000 roubles!!

Here is another resource with voting by regions:
http://www.gazeta.ru/maps/elections2011/russia.shtml
You can see that Putin got 47% of the vote in Moscow, which is probably about right.
Moscow gets the lion share of the oil money and should naturally have the biggest support
for Putin. Now look at the regions. Many give 30-40% to Putin which is also about right.
Then you have a group where support of Putin is well above 47%: from slightly unbelievable 55% in Astrakhan to fantastic 99.5% in Chechnya. Clearly, the elections in these regions were manipulated to a different extent

I guess that observers from leading democracies like Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Zimbabwe will find these elections fair and the rest of the world can safely conclude that United Russian won and stole just about 10% of the votes Long LIve Vputin!!

1. It wasn't a poll, it was an election. Yes, there was a large amount of fraud in the election. That is why it is stunning that even with all that fraud United Russia only received a slim majority. I don't believe I have said anywhere the election was free and fair. What I was commenting on was the surprising results considering the election was not free and fair.

[Baron Von PWN]

Also Putin could theoretically lose the election. Though this is highly unlikely as the other candidates are a variety of crazy and threatening contenders tend to find themselves facing a surprising amount of legal troubles. However if discontent with Putin is indeed on the rise as recent events may suggest you might actually get to see Putin sweat a bit in the election, or who knows even face a viable opponent.

Impossible! With United Russia polling about 40% fairly (see my previous poll), and Putin's much better level of support than his party, and ability to manipulate the results in a number of regions,
it is more likely that Putin is abducted by aliens than he would not win the presidential poll in the first round...

I agree, this is the likely outcome. However if the discontent with United Russia and Putin grows. He may have a much harder time of swindling the Russian public this time.

[Dako]

Russian elections are a great joke. I can tell you fur sure.

[Baron Von PWN]

Remember how Ron Paul ranked high in those initial straw polls?


Give the Russian state media some time to work on the minds of the public, and we'll have Putin back in no time. Russia needs a Strong Hand anyway.

These aren't straw polls but rather official Russian Parliamentary results. However as more polls have been reporting in United Russia has achieved 50%. I agree with you that is the probable outcome. However this loss at the polls, and I do consider it a loss considering the considerable tools available to United Russia, is quite extraordinary. Combine that with Putin being booed at a public sporting event a few weeks back and there is some potential for some interesting developments.

Regardless I am quite impressed United Russia suffered such a loss despite all the biases in its favour. Russia thinks it needs a strong hand, because it has always had a system which requires strong hands. Though I'm fairly certain you are just repeating a favourite Russian trope.

Oh yeah, I'm repeating it! It feels so good!

That's a good point about the straw polls != parliamentary results. I was assuming that parliamentary results merely reflect voter preferences, but do not ultimately determine the Presidential Winrar.

Do Russian political parties vote on the president? Why do the proportions matter for Putin's chances of "re-election"?

There is a separate election for the president, but United Russia is basically Putin's party, and exist solely to make Putin's life easier. That it fared so poorly suggests Putin might not have the breezy "re-election" expected. I fully expect Putin to achieve his "re-election" but maybe there will be some sort of effective opposition this time, instead of Putin wining 38% to second places 8%, it will be a closer thing.

The most important thing about all this is that it pretty soundly shakes the mythos of Putin being support by a large majority of Russians. This may spur further protests and stir up discontent. Another October revolution for Russia perhaps? who knows. As a Russia watcher these events have got me all a tizzy.

[Baron Von PWN]

Russian elections are a great joke. I can tell you fur sure.

A joke yes, but this time on who is laughing?

[Dako]

Russian elections are a great joke. I can tell you fur sure.

A joke yes, but this time on who is laughing?

I think every Russian citizen. I can at least vouch for my friends and acquaintances. There are so many regulations broken by United Russia during the elections that it is obvious something fishy will happen and Russian government will stay in Putin's hands. Or at least that is what I believe in.

[Baron Von PWN]

Russian elections are a great joke. I can tell you fur sure.

A joke yes, but this time on who is laughing?

I think every Russian citizen. I can at least vouch for my friends and acquaintances. There are so many regulations broken by United Russia during the elections that it is obvious something fishy will happen and Russian government will stay in Putin's hands. Or at least that is what I believe in.

yeah probably. Do you think this is likely to stir up some kind of protest movement?

[Dako]

No. Maybe a minor one but nothing close to a revolution. They have military power behind them and there will be no revolution for the next 5 years I am sure. People here know how to suck everything up, we are used to hard times. We will continue to struggle, laugh at that and find a way to earn money for a decent living.

But I am sure that common people will stop talking much about politics because it is obvious UR cheat a lot. And if you say it out loud, well, we will be back to Stalin regime I think.

[Baron Von PWN]

This is interesting. A video playlist of United Russia elections violations. Over three hours of video! http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL71CFAF81D61AFB83

[Frito Bandito]

I would imagine that any group trying to "occupy Moscow" would have to deal with more than a little pepper spray!!

[Baron Von PWN]

I would imagine that any group trying to "occupy Moscow" would have to deal with more than a little pepper spray!!

Russian police tend to simply get their hands dirty, and physically remove protesters. Though yes such a group would not last past the first few hours.

[thegreekdog]

Does Russia have a volunteer military? I ask because (and bear with me here), I'm wondering whether a volunteer military or mandatory military would be more suitable to repressing its people.

[Baron Von PWN]

Does Russia have a volunteer military? I ask because (and bear with me here), I'm wondering whether a volunteer military or mandatory military would be more suitable to repressing its people.

It has a hybrid. It's been a stated goal to move towards a professional military since the 90's. At the moment I think it is about 60 - 40. With the Majority being conscripts. Hard to say, probably the volunteer army would be more effective. Conscripts don't really want to be there period, so would be presumably less loyal.

[Pope Joan]

1. It wasn't a poll, it was an election. Yes, there was a large amount of fraud in the election. That is why it is stunning that even with all that fraud United Russia only received a slim majority. I don't believe I have said anywhere the election was free and fair. What I was commenting on was the surprising results considering the election was not free and fair.

Elections is a poll. Are you confusing it with an opinion poll? Learn the language first before trying to correct other people

Overall majority in a fully proportional system is hardly "slim". Tell this to someone in Israel or Belgium! Off course, if you compare with the previous duma or leading democracies like Kazakhstan, it is slim...

Browse through the map in gazeta.ru. You will see many regions with UnRu polling around 35% and I have little doubt that the elections there were fair. At the end of they day, the opposition is hardly appealing as well: the scepter of Communism Zyuganov, and two former KGB projects Zhirinovsky and Mironov...

[Dako]

Yeah. The problem that all the candidates are not appealing at all.

We had small meeting riots yesterday, around 500 were arrested in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Scary times. I am not sure that we will have revolution now, but on the presidents elections ti will be an utter disaster.

[Baron Von PWN]

1. It wasn't a poll, it was an election. Yes, there was a large amount of fraud in the election. That is why it is stunning that even with all that fraud United Russia only received a slim majority. I don't believe I have said anywhere the election was free and fair. What I was commenting on was the surprising results considering the election was not free and fair.

Elections is a poll. Are you confusing it with an opinion poll? Learn the language first before trying to correct other people

Overall majority in a fully proportional system is hardly "slim". Tell this to someone in Israel or Belgium! Off course, if you compare with the previous duma or leading democracies like Kazakhstan, it is slim...

Browse through the map in gazeta.ru. You will see many regions with UnRu polling around 35% and I have little doubt that the elections there were fair. At the end of they day, the opposition is hardly appealing as well: the scepter of Communism Zyuganov, and two former KGB projects Zhirinovsky and Mironov...

With regards to poll. This may just be a difference in use of language, in Canadian English when referring to an election a "poll" is not used except for a specific location, like "the polling station on Somerset" . It is usually used for things like opinion polls or surveys. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

When a party sheds 14% of the vote share despite having a massive amount of election fraud inflating its numbers and wins only a slim majority that is quite significant. It makes no sense to compare Russia to Belgium or Israel, for one its system of proportional representation has a high exclusion rate (7%), its elections are not fair, aside from large amounts of official collusion in favour of UnRu the media is largely in their pocket. Unappealing opposition is also somewhat the fault of the Kremlin, anyone who does not make UnRu look good tends to run into large amounts of legal troubles.

UnRu probably would have received something closer to 35% if it were not for the massive amounts of fraud.

[Qwert]

well i dont understand how US democratic elections,only alove 2 party to be in elections,and all other dont have any right. When you wote you have only 2 option, in all other democratic countries you have 10-15-20 parties to wote,and only in america,its restricted to two party. Why in america dont have more then 2 parties in elections?