Votanic wrote:Dukasaur wrote:Votanic wrote:Duk, you still haven't explained your opposition to Ukraine in NATO.
How do I adequately answer this without typing out an encyclopaedia that I don't have time for?
First, the expansion of Nato was always a mistake. With the fall of the Soviet Union, Nato should have gone into hibernation. Its central goal had been achieved. Soviet power was broken. Russia was essentially friendly, although not exactly in love with us. By poking the bear and recruiting her former cubs, we turned a potential friend back into an enemy.
Having the ability to ally with others and defend onself is a mistake, because Russia is harmless?? ...and this is especially true for those adorable Russian 'cub' countries, so unfairly separated from their loving 'Mother'. If only that blasted wall and rusty curtain hadn't come down... Though presumably, if 'friendly', 'harmless' Russia respected other sovreign countries, they wouldn't try to stop them from joining any clubs they wanted to... maybe they would even
You're American, right? You recognize this phrase?
"peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nationsāentangling alliances with none."
A military alliance is not a bridge club. It's not people coming together for a night of harmless entertainment. A military alliance always implies a mutual enemy that one expects to eventually have a war with.
The system of European alliances is generally agreed to have turned the brush fire of the Balkan Wars into the worldwide conflagration that was World War One.
Signing on to a military alliance is basically a Letter of Intent to eventually wage war, even if the time line is only a distant future.
Votanic wrote:Dukasaur wrote:Remember that there was a while where Russia was a democratic nation. Nato is not blameless in the rise of ultranationalists and Putin. Our (and I say 'our' for convenience, although of course John Major and George Bush and Francois Mitterand etc. didn't exactly call up you or me to ask our opinion) pushing into Russia's back yard helped elect Putin and solidify his power, in the same way that the Allies' continued humiliations of interwar Germany helped bring about the rise of Hitler.
What? Russia was minimally democratic for like 10 years or so (only relative to the USSR). Just long enough for the oligarchs to consolidate their wealth and power.
And that, largely, is the original sin that we are complicit in. The Russian oligarchy was a product of a corrupt transition from communism to capitalism. It was engineered by Jeremy Sachs of Goldman Sachs, largely following the model already trialed in Hungary and Poland. It didn't need to be that way. A communist economy can be transformed into a market economy without creating a new feudalism.
But I digress...
Votanic wrote:Also it's not Russia's back yard. That yard is another country....
Again, you're American, right? Remember when Cuba decided to enter a military alliance with another country and you all shit your collective pants? As I recall, it was quite the crisis, and now that the seals of secrecy have been broken we know that we were even closer to WWIII than anyone knew at the time.
As above, a military alliance is not a bridge club, it's a Letter of Intent to eventually wage war. America felt very threatened by the Russians taking over a nation on their doorstep, just as the Russians felt very threatened by Nato's expansion into Poland, Hungary, etc.
Votanic wrote:Dukasaur wrote:Second, Ukraine's longest border is with Russia, and until 2014 they had a healthy economic relationship. 30% of Ukraine's exports went to, and 35% of Ukraine's imports came from Russia. Preserving that relationship should have been seen as an indisputable high priority. As Bastiat said, "when goods don't cross borders, armies will." Especially when your neighbours are big and powerful, preserving commerce is important.
Until 2014? Gee what happened then? I mean besides the invasion beginning in Crimea!
I know the question is rhetorical, but I'll answer it anyway.
A pro-Russian government in Kiev was overthrown and replaced by a pro-Western government in Kiev.
There's been reams written arguing about which was more corrupt, which was more a violation of the people's will, which was more servile to a foreign power. I'm not going down that path. It's a bunch of pots calling a bunch of kettles black. The pre-Maidan and post-Maidan regimes were both very corrupt, they both engaged in anti-democratic manipulation and subterfuge, and they were both very much in bed with foreign interests. Only difference was which foreign interest they were in bed with.
But following along with our previous example, it was very much like the Communist takeover of Cuba. The people of Ukraine might have thought it was about their economic prospects, just as the people in Cuba might have. But to the fellow in the Kremlin, it was a knife pointed at his throat, just as the Cuban revolution was seen by the fellow in the White House.
Votanic wrote:Dukasaur wrote:But it wasn't a foregone conclusion that things would get to this state. Russia had a lot more to gain from free trade and friendship with Ukraine than from invading it. Pursuing a path of military and political neutrality while vigorously expanding international trade was their best bet.
Free trade and friendship is still Russia's best bet...
At present, problematic at best.
Votanic wrote:but all those Vodka-soused Russians just want to squander it all for a kinky, jingoist floorshow with Putin all done up in Stalin/Hitler/Czar drag or whatever. Most Russians hate democracy and love being bullies. It's a cultural thing. Were Czarism and the Soviet Union cause or effect? Let's just say it was a positive feedback loop.
To a limited extent, I will agree with you.
Russia has for a long time been an expansionist, imperialist power, and that does create its own momentum. Much of Putin's power comes from a nostalgia for the days when the whole world feared the Soviet Union. Even many people who hated the Communists are sometimes nostalgic about Soviet power. So that is an element to consider.
But it's not the only element. There are people in England nostalgic about the days of Empire, but you don't see anyone standing up in Parliament and demanding an invasion of India. All things being equal, people will tend to support peace and prosperity over war and sacrifice. If we hadn't fed the paranoia of the Russian nationalists, they would have gradually dwindled.
Damn, had more to say but I'm out of time.