3 - 1

Blumoki · Post by **Blumoki** » Mon May 19, 2008 3:22 pm

Has anybody got any stats on 3 armies attacking 1 army?

I don't think in the last month i have managed to kill a 1 when I have a 3..... I'm not whinging just wondering if any of you geeks have file full of this info.

ParadiceCity9 · Post by **ParadiceCity9** » Mon May 19, 2008 3:26 pm

about 75% win rate (though I think that's probably false...)

About 57% of the time you will win without losing one.

Blumoki · Post by **Blumoki** » Mon May 19, 2008 3:30 pm

ParadiceCity9 wrote:about 75% win rate (though I think that's probably false...)

About 57% of the time you will win without losing one.

thanks for the reply, I think your making it up though

ParadiceCity9 · Post by **ParadiceCity9** » Mon May 19, 2008 3:31 pm

http://gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds

see for yourself (:

oggiss · Post by **oggiss** » Mon May 19, 2008 3:33 pm

I win 2 vs 1 easier than 3 vs 1, strange ^^

ParadiceCity9 · Post by **ParadiceCity9** » Mon May 19, 2008 3:33 pm

my opponents tend to win 3 on 2's easier than 5 on 1's

stranger...

Thezzaruz · Post by **Thezzaruz** » Mon May 19, 2008 3:34 pm

65.97% attacking wins
34.03% defending wins

That's the odds.

ParadiceCity9 · Post by **ParadiceCity9** » Mon May 19, 2008 3:35 pm

Thezzaruz wrote:65.97% attacking wins
34.03% defending wins

That's the odds.

false

Thezzaruz · Post by **Thezzaruz** » Mon May 19, 2008 3:40 pm

ParadiceCity9 wrote:false

Would you care to back that up???

The1exile · Post by **The1exile** » Mon May 19, 2008 3:42 pm

oddly, he already did, and his own site agrees with ya.

Thezzaruz · Post by **Thezzaruz** » Mon May 19, 2008 3:43 pm

Actually... Had to re-read the first post.

For a single 3 v1 roll the odds I put are the correct ones.

For the chance of 3 armies winning v 1 then the 75% you posted are correct...

Cheers

Thezzaruz · Post by **Thezzaruz** » Mon May 19, 2008 3:44 pm

The1exile wrote:oddly, he already did, and his own site agrees with ya.

Yea but now I agree with him... Confusing ain't it.

oVo · Post by **oVo** » Mon May 19, 2008 4:56 pm

When you attack 3v1, does the attacker actually roll 3 dice,
(since he can only lose 1 army) or is it 2 dice versus 1 die?

edbeard · Post by **edbeard** » Mon May 19, 2008 5:03 pm

Probability of Winning one 3v1 Roll + (Probability of losing one 3v1 roll) * (Probability of winning a 2v1 roll)

someone with a dice analyzer can fill in the numbers because I don't feel like figuring out those probabilities

Thezzaruz · Post by **Thezzaruz** » Mon May 19, 2008 5:06 pm

edbeard wrote:Probability of Winning one 3v1 Roll + (Probability of losing one 3v1 roll) * (Probability of winning a 2v1 roll)

someone with a dice analyzer can fill in the numbers because I don't feel like figuring out those probabilities

You forgot the possibility of it ending in a 1v1 battle too.

But yea the 75% that Paradise posted is correct for this case.

edbeard · Post by **edbeard** » Mon May 19, 2008 5:11 pm

Thezzaruz wrote:
edbeard wrote:Probability of Winning one 3v1 Roll + (Probability of losing one 3v1 roll) * (Probability of winning a 2v1 roll)

someone with a dice analyzer can fill in the numbers because I don't feel like figuring out those probabilities

You forgot the possibility of it ending in a 1v1 battle too.

But yea the 75% that Paradise posted is correct for this case.

To say I forgot it would be wrong.

I thought the guy meant a 3v1 in armies not a 4v1. Meaning you can only roll 2 dice to start. It's not really clear which he meant. Either way, same idea.

If that's what he meant then, yes, you'd change it to...

Probability of Winning one 4v1 Roll + (Probability of losing one 4v1 roll) * (Probability of winning a 3v1 roll) + (Probability of losing one 4v1 roll) * (Probability of losing one 3v1 roll) * (Probability of winning a 2v1 roll)

Blumoki · Post by **Blumoki** » Mon May 19, 2008 5:25 pm

I'm just talking about the 3-1 roll for a win, not ending 1-1. how often does the 3-1 win?

edbeard · Post by **edbeard** » Mon May 19, 2008 5:28 pm

Blumoki wrote:I'm just talking about the 3-1 roll for a win, not ending 1-1. how often does the 3-1 win?

you didn't really clear that up

I think you mean 3 armies versus 1 army

but others apparently think you mean 4 armies versus 1 army (where the 3 dice versus 1 dice is the 3 v 1 they are thinking about)

Thezzaruz · Post by **Thezzaruz** » Mon May 19, 2008 6:31 pm

Blumoki wrote:I'm just talking about the 3-1 roll for a win, not ending 1-1. how often does the 3-1 win?

Would have helped if you read the thread as the answer is posted on the previous page. But I'm a nice guy tonight.

In a 3v1 roll (just a single roll) the odds are:
65.97% attacker wins
34.03% defender wins

In a 3v1 battle (conquering the "1") the odds are:
75% attacker wins (with no casualties for the attacker in 57%) (as Paradise posted)

Check this link for a good calculator and check out any scenario you like.

edbeard wrote:I thought the guy meant a 3v1 in armies not a 4v1. Meaning you can only roll 2 dice to start. It's not really clear which he meant. Either way, same idea.

Well if he attacks with 2 dice then it really isn't a 3v1 battle any way you look at it. As we are talking about dice odds it's really only relevant to mention armies that actually fight. But you are right, no biggie it's the same idea just one added rounds of rolls.

Pedronicus · Post by **Pedronicus** » Mon May 19, 2008 6:49 pm

Battle Outcomes Actual Stats Ideal Stats
3v1 1376 / 762 (64.36% / 35.64%) (65.97% / 34.03%)

Robinette · Post by **Robinette** » Mon May 19, 2008 11:55 pm

Pedronicus wrote:Battle Outcomes Actual Stats Ideal Stats
3v1 1376 / 762 (64.36% / 35.64%) (65.97% / 34.03%)

so..... at this point, you've lost 1 more man out of every 95 rolls than someone matching the optimum stats....

I am speechless....

Pedronicus · Post by **Pedronicus** » Tue May 20, 2008 11:26 am

how are you arriving at that figure robin?

1376+762 = 2138 attacks in total

65.97% of 2138 = 1410

1410 - 1376 = 34

2138 / 34 = 62

Robinette · Post by **Robinette** » Tue May 20, 2008 11:28 pm

Pedronicus wrote:Battle Outcomes Actual Stats Ideal Stats
3v1 1376 / 762 (64.36% / 35.64%) (65.97% / 34.03%)

Robinette wrote: so..... at this point, you've lost 1 more man out of every 95 rolls than someone matching the optimum stats....

Pedronicus wrote:how are you arriving at that figure robin?
1376+762 = 2138 attacks in total
65.97% of 2138 = 1410
1410 - 1376 = 34
2138 / 34 = 62

lol... ok ok ok... so i rounded a little... i didn't want to use decimals, that's all

but just for you, i'll give you all the #'s to 2 decimal points....

You've actually lost 1.49 more men out of every 94.51 rolls.
Here is how we calculate this:
You've had 22.62 sets of 94.51 rolls....
2138 total / 94.51 rolls = 22.62 sets

Now take those 22.62 sets of rolls and multiply by 1.49....
22.62 sets x 1.49 men = 33.70 total variance

Once again, if you'll round everything to the nearest whole number, then you've lost 1 more man out of every 95 rolls than someone matching the optimum stats....

yes yes, i know, i know... i was stretching the rounding just a tiny bit to suit me... but it was accurate nonetheless.

bob72 · Post by **bob72** » Wed May 21, 2008 5:18 am

Blumoki wrote:Has anybody got any stats on 3 armies attacking 1 army?

I don't think in the last month i have managed to kill a 1 when I have a 3..... I'm not whinging just wondering if any of you geeks have file full of this info.

Mine is currently sitting at

WIN 67.41% (1.44%) LOSE 32.59% (-1.44%)

This is based on 1903 attacking rolls. (Percentages are variance from dice analyser norm.

However my dice suck at 1v2 and 1v1 rolls

WIN 14.29% (-11.17%) LOSE 85.71% (11.17%)
WIN 31.82% (-9.85%) LOSE 68.18% (9.85%) only winning 31% of evenly matched rolls

(Just want to point out that I'm a 75% terminator game player which explains my high 1v1 and 1v2 attempts) In standard games these type of attacks are less frequent but I've seen many times where I've 6 armies against 2 and lost 4 (but still try to get rid of the final 2 armies for the points.) It works 31.82% of the time :p

Robinette · Post by **Robinette** » Sat May 24, 2008 12:49 pm

Hey Pedro... i recently rolled 4 consecutive 1's attacking single armies... and didn't lose a man!!

5-1-1 vs 4
1-1-3 vs 2

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