Once again, a question about the dice...Twill??

[KoolBak]

[bitch] I have been keeping rough track of my rolling over the last month or so and comparing it to my rolling playing a similar number of games with the Risk II cd.

My conquer club total is NET hundreds of armies to the negative...my Risk II is roughly even.

I find the rolling to be fairly normal with three dice to two dice; my (Dice) problem begins when I am rolling three, two or one dice against ONE defending dice...I regularly lose 5 men in a row; I expect to lose a very min of 2 or 3 and often lose 9 or more.....I refuse to stop rolling, so that is purely my issue, but I am simply dumbfounded.....

I love this site but I am getting closer and closer to saying screw it every day (I'm sure that would break a lot of hearts!).

WTH, over? Any feedback? [/bitch - for now]

[wacicha]

Kool I know what you mean but you must learn to say NO! and stop rolling but because you can't i like to leave speed bumps to slow you down. but please do not quit i will miss you alot

[KoolBak]

Thanks wacicha..you are a great guy and a fearsome opponent; BUUUT, I shouldn't HAVE to say no!!! I cant say no!!!!! NooooooO!!!!!!

[wacicha]

when you start to say NO then you will be a great doubles partner because it is the ones that can't say know that leave their team hanging it is better to quit and have more guys than to get that almighty card lol

[KoolBak]

Very true...I actually try to control myself in doubles games but it is so hard...........it's getting the allmighty freakin dice to act normally that I am after....one more roll, then it will happen...one more.......

[wacicha]

it is approbiate that you have a dog picture as avator when they get that scent they keep going lol

[Derwiddle]

Aaaah... Somebody do something with the dice! Please...

I haven't gotten a single winning attack all day! Just losing units left and right. *sob*

Kinda hard to make any strategy work when you know you're gonna lose anyway.

[onbekende]

I have a very good strategy to this problem.
Only attack with 50+ armies, works for me

[Derwiddle]

lol, that would work. Fortunately though I just had my first good play of the day and it got me an entire continent. Maybe it was just my luck.

[Twill]

Kool, you know we have been over this a million times.

you know how the dice work, if you can think of a better, more reliable way to have a computer simulate randomness...please, please feel free to suggest it.

It's not just Lack that has gone over the method, but others who have some programming knowledge (unlike myself) have looked at it and decided it should theoretically create "random" rolls.

Maybe the CC gods just hate you <shrug>...personally I think it's because you beat me one time too many

Now, that being said, you are officially banned from leaving. So there.

Twill

[Jota]

The thing about dice is, no matter how random or how carefully programmed or how well-weighted they are, they always manage to pick up a little smidge of sentience. I think it's a result of all that contact with the people who roll them, day in and day out. And sentient entities get bored. So no matter what the laws of physics, logic, or mathematics should declare, they'll always turn around and do things like that to you, usually just when you least expect it. Any dice, anywhere. Conquer Club is no exception.

[PaperPlunger]

except conquers dice are muchhhhh worse, and do that wayyy more often. emphasis on "way".

[KoolBak]

That's it - they hate me.

But twill loves me, so I'm a-stayin!!

Thanks!!

[Twill]

[fraggle]

It seems like the dice results have changed radically in the past two days or so. Other people are commenting on it too. And looking around at maps covered with 1 army each, I'd have to believe that they are all going through what I am - running through the entire group of armies in each country trying to conquer a single country.

I know there have been discussions of the dice in the past, (and some ongoing), but this is different. I'm asking - who else has noticed a sudden amazing change inf favor of the defense (eg. 1 or 2 armies consistently defending against 8 to 10 armies)?

And, can anyone say if there has been some sort of programmatic change that might have resulted in this? I'm in way too many games at once where this has been going on (since roughly yesterday) for it to be simply a bad stretch that is within reasonable chance.

[HighBorn]

actually iv noticed a change for the better past couple days.. takeing over 3 with 3 and 2 ta and winning to take out players.. been good rolling

[Jota]

Anyone else ever get the urge to beat someone silly with a big ol' length of PVC piping?

It'd be worth it just for the THWONNNK! noises alone.

[HighBorn]

rotflmao its not always that good...lol

[PainBrain]

I had some awesome rolls earlier today. 32 vs. 28 and winning with 25 left. Same turn same group of armies 24 vs. 25 and winning with enough armies to take the the country w/ 10 right next to it. It was fun.

Kollbak can tell you im telling the truth too.

[Oyabe]

Given that the 'dice' are from a random set of numbers taken from a random atmospheric fluctuation data set, it would seem that they should be...random.

BUT! It has been mentioned that the numbers are recycled from a single finite sample. If Lack does not regularly refresh the data set, the current sample might have an unusually high number of 6's. Given that ties go to the defender, a greater number of 6's would benefit the defender in single army rolls.

Or perhaps when a certain area of the data set has an abnormally high frequency, it would seem to the attacker to be a nasty case of bad luck or angry dice gods.


...Or would it? I'm not a statistician.

[AndrewO]

I got a bit pissed off yesterday losing loads of 3 v 1 rolls so made a count of every dice roll after that point. They all seemed fairly normal, except as pointed out in the first post the 3 v 1 rolls (that is to say when I have 4 or more men and they have 1).

I can't remember what the exact odds are, but I believe you should win about 70% of rolls as the attacked in that situation. My results were 91 wins to 86 losses, which is barely over 50%, and for most of the day I was running under 50%!

So far today though the count seems a lot more reasonable, so maybe something has changed...

[Jota]

If all the results after you started counting were fairly normal, then there's no reason to think anything has changed. Statistically, you can't draw any meaningful conclusions from the results you got when you weren't formally counting every roll.

(Also, if that was three armies versus one, then you only have a 58% chance of success anyway. I'd recommend against making attacks like that if you can reasonably avoid it. Although even if it was three dice versus one, it's still only a 66% chance of success. That means that on average, at least one out of every three attacks should fail. Over the course of several games, runs of failures like that should be fairly common.)

[mrdexter]

Also, if all the results after you started counting were fairly normal, then there's no reason to think anything has changed. Statistically, you can't draw any meaningful conclusions from the results you got when you weren't formally counting every roll.

Plus...all that was just getting his excuse ready for losing

Ooops, sorry wrong forum.

[AndrewO]

The results after I started counting were the abnormal ones I talked about, I deliberately didn't include the ones before because they would bias the results.

And 66% to 50% over a sample of almost 200 is a reasonably big difference.

But I also saw my opponents having just as bad luck, so I'm not having a big moan. Just thought I would add my observations to this thread.

And as I say they seem more normal today.... so far!

[Acetone]

I just finished one game I lost 18v6, my teammate lost 6v1 and then I ended it losing 10v1. it seems one sided to me, and this seems to happen to me in all my games. With that happening I stopped caring about winning or losing but rather was my strat any good? Because if it was good plan then I should still do it, granted it may not work every time. I do agree though it seems like when I am against one army I will lose a minimium of three armies to take the one out with a roll of a six against a five, while losing to 5's and 6's. Just my rant.