Abortion decreases crime rates

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Falkomagno
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Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by Falkomagno »

I just read a book that assure that, the big drop in crime rates in USa is given, mainly, because a event called “Roe v. Wade” , where the supreme court allows in some cases the abortion. That’s because a harsh law against abortion produces more unwanted children in the poorest conditions, that has the bigger probabilities to become criminals after years.

So, allows abortion can work in the opposite direction, where a young poor women can abort easily, or in fact, defer the birth of his child, until the conditions can be better, and that can reflect in a lower of criminal rates in any countries.

A provocative theory undoubtedly
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by BigBallinStalin »

What would abortions do? Well, they would have to be readily available and CHEAP. But, not having kids also takes away the incentive of MONEY EARNED, so I don't think this cheap abortion deal would be that efficient in reducing crime. Proper enforcement of the laws and judicial procedures being carried out correctly and then sentencing criminals is still a good way to go.

But now we go into the debate of how to reduce crime--especially in a country like USA, where it seems pretty hard to control drug trafficking and guns (legal and illegal guns). Check out Taiwan, virtually no violent crime unless you're a drunken slob grabbing tits in a bar owned by some no-bullshit business owners (possibly Triad members, which isn't all that bad)--you'll get your ass kicked for that, depending on the place you go to. Capital punishment for illegal drugs (even marijuana) and guns are extremely difficult to obtain (even for the Triad, who from what I heard have to make home-made ones), but there's hardly any violent crime. (Then again, let's not forget Taiwan's history since 1895)

(Of course, who the hell would want to move to Taiwan? And who really wants those kind of rules imposed upon them?)
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by jonesthecurl »

Falkomagno wrote:I just read a book that assure that, the big drop in crime rates in USa is given, mainly, because a event called “Roe v. Wade” , where the supreme court allows in some cases the abortion. That’s because a harsh law against abortion produces more unwanted children in the poorest conditions, that has the bigger probabilities to become criminals after years.

So, allows abortion can work in the opposite direction, where a young poor women can abort easily, or in fact, defer the birth of his child, until the conditions can be better, and that can reflect in a lower of criminal rates in any countries.

A provocative theory undoubtedly
I'm not an anti-abortionist, but that's a weak argument.
Executing every third person in those poor areas would also reduce the crime rate.
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by thegreekdog »

Question - does the study consider that abortion used to be a crime and that the legalization of abortion necessarily reduced the crime rate?
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by jay_a2j »

So abortion has led to a decrease in criminals? Could you spare me the liberal rhetoric? It's quite nauseating. :sick:
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by Snorri1234 »

thegreekdog wrote:Question - does the study consider that abortion used to be a crime and that the legalization of abortion necessarily reduced the crime rate?
Yes. Falko is talking about Freakonomics.

It's a compelling argument. But ultimately it isn't as strong as outlined in the book.
Executing every third person in those poor areas would also reduce the crime rate.
Exactly. It's not an argument for legalizing abortion. It was never intended to be. It was actually used more to discredit the notion that the falling crime-rate in the 90's was due to various state- and citygovernments being "tough on crime". It seems it was more due to the legalisation of abortion reducing the overal number of people which in turn leads to lower crime-rates and such.
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by thegreekdog »

Okay... I'm not a mathematician (I just play one on TV)... but,

Pre-Abortion Population - 100
Crimes - 20
Crime rate - 20%

Post-Abortion Population - 50
Crimes - 10
Crime rate - 20%

So, what we're really saying is that the "right" people are having abortions.
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by Snorri1234 »

jay_a2j wrote:So abortion has led to a decrease in criminals? Could you spare me the liberal rhetoric? It's quite nauseating. :sick:
It's not liberal rhetoric. It's economics.
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by vodean »

that is like saying if we stopped having babies altogether, it would decrease crime. yes, but we wouldn't be able to reap the benefits. im pro-abortion in certain circumstances, but i feel the need to argue against this.
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by Snorri1234 »

thegreekdog wrote:Okay... I'm not a mathematician (I just play one on TV)... but,

Pre-Abortion Population - 100
Crimes - 20
Crime rate - 20%

Post-Abortion Population - 50
Crimes - 10
Crime rate - 20%

So, what we're really saying is that the "right" people are having abortions.
No the crime-rate also decreases. Which is logical and backed up by studies and facts. (A small town does not merely have a lower amount of crimes, but also a lower crime-rate.)
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by thegreekdog »

Snorri1234 wrote:
thegreekdog wrote:Okay... I'm not a mathematician (I just play one on TV)... but,

Pre-Abortion Population - 100
Crimes - 20
Crime rate - 20%

Post-Abortion Population - 50
Crimes - 10
Crime rate - 20%

So, what we're really saying is that the "right" people are having abortions.
No the crime-rate also decreases. Which is logical and backed up by studies and facts. (A small town does not merely have a lower amount of crimes, but also a lower crime-rate.)
How is what you just typed "no?" The only way the crime rate decreases is if the "right" people are having abortions. That's the answer.
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by Snorri1234 »

thegreekdog wrote:
Snorri1234 wrote:
thegreekdog wrote:Okay... I'm not a mathematician (I just play one on TV)... but,

Pre-Abortion Population - 100
Crimes - 20
Crime rate - 20%

Post-Abortion Population - 50
Crimes - 10
Crime rate - 20%

So, what we're really saying is that the "right" people are having abortions.
No the crime-rate also decreases. Which is logical and backed up by studies and facts. (A small town does not merely have a lower amount of crimes, but also a lower crime-rate.)
How is what you just typed "no?" The only way the crime rate decreases is if the "right" people are having abortions. That's the answer.
New crime rate wouldn't be 20%. That wouldn't be a decreased crime rate.

What do you mean by "right" people?
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by thegreekdog »

Snorri1234 wrote:
thegreekdog wrote:
Snorri1234 wrote:
thegreekdog wrote:Okay... I'm not a mathematician (I just play one on TV)... but,

Pre-Abortion Population - 100
Crimes - 20
Crime rate - 20%

Post-Abortion Population - 50
Crimes - 10
Crime rate - 20%

So, what we're really saying is that the "right" people are having abortions.
No the crime-rate also decreases. Which is logical and backed up by studies and facts. (A small town does not merely have a lower amount of crimes, but also a lower crime-rate.)
I just did the math above... by your calculation, the crime rate would have to go down for some other reason (i.e. increased vigilance or the "right" people are having abortions). Why, if there are half as many people would the crime rate go down more than half unless there is some other reason?

By the "right" people, I mean people whose children have a tendency to commit crimes. I mean nothing nefarious. Either children who tend to grow up to commit crimes are being aborted (however anyone figures that shit out) or something else is going on.

How is what you just typed "no?" The only way the crime rate decreases is if the "right" people are having abortions. That's the answer.
New crime rate wouldn't be 20%. That wouldn't be a decreased crime rate.

What do you mean by "right" people?
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by Snorri1234 »

thegreekdog wrote:
I just did the math above... by your calculation, the crime rate would have to go down for some other reason (i.e. increased vigilance or the "right" people are having abortions). Why, if there are half as many people would the crime rate go down more than half unless there is some other reason?
Because that's how it works. Less people means a lower crime rate, not just fewer crimes. Just compare small towns with big cities. We don't know exactly why (we can guess) but we can see that the crime rate as a percentage of the population goes up as the population increases.

By your calculation there would be about 2 violent robberies a week in my town compared to the amount in Amsterdam. But there aren't any.
By the "right" people, I mean people whose children have a tendency to commit crimes. I mean nothing nefarious. Either children who tend to grow up to commit crimes are being aborted (however anyone figures that shit out) or something else is going on.
Yup, kids who would've grown up in a poor neighborhood with lots of crime weren't born. And that not only reduces the overal amount of crimes, but also the percentage of crimes relative to teh populace.
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by Falkomagno »

It’s more like an observed fact than an argument to be defended, or attacked.

I don't have the data, but I think that makes sense.

The authors are really convincing to shown that, when you control another variables that could explain a drop in the crime rates, as an increase in the number of police, a strong economy, aging of the population or a more efficient judicial system, it appear that the truly reason is a more lax abortion legislation.

Personally, I agree in the sense that when a women, no matter to be so young or so poor, get pregnant, is herself the best to determinate if to have (or not) the children is the best choice. And that has a deep impact in society.
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

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LESS PEOPLE DOES NOT MEAN A LOWER CRIME RATE!!!

I will retract the above, if you, Snorri, can prove to me, mathematically, and all other things being equal, how less people = a lower crime rate.
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by Timminz »

thegreekdog wrote:LESS PEOPLE DOES NOT MEAN A LOWER CRIME RATE!!!

I will retract the above, if you, Snorri, can prove to me, mathematically, and all other things being equal, how less people = a lower crime rate.
It's not about the math. It's about the stats.

In general, crime rate is proportional to population size.

Go ahead, and take a look at crime rates for a bunch of cities, town, and villages. You will see the trend.
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by 72o »

Less unwanted children born out of wedlock means a lower crime rate.

Show me mathematically where I'm wrong.
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by Falkomagno »

thegreekdog wrote:LESS PEOPLE DOES NOT MEAN A LOWER CRIME RATE!!!

I will retract the above, if you, Snorri, can prove to me, mathematically, and all other things being equal, how less people = a lower crime rate.

Is not less people. It's less unwanted children in poor neighbourhoods, with higher posibilities to become criminals
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by thegreekdog »

Falkomagno wrote:
thegreekdog wrote:LESS PEOPLE DOES NOT MEAN A LOWER CRIME RATE!!!

I will retract the above, if you, Snorri, can prove to me, mathematically, and all other things being equal, how less people = a lower crime rate.

Is not less people. It's less unwanted children in poor neighbourhoods, with higher posibilities to become criminals
Yes, that is my point. Just because there are less people, it does not mean the crime rate is lower. The crime rate is lower because of less unwanted children (i.e. the "right" people are having abortions).
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by 72o »

Just think how low the crime rate would be if we gave a tax credit for aborting a child, instead of actually having one. It might even be negative. :D
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by Snorri1234 »

thegreekdog wrote:LESS PEOPLE DOES NOT MEAN A LOWER CRIME RATE!!!

I will retract the above, if you, Snorri, can prove to me, mathematically, and all other things being equal, how less people = a lower crime rate.
All else being equal? That's exactly my point, the amount of people influences how a city behaves. It won't be equal. The more people you get the more likely you get ghettos, poor education and a higher pay-off for crime. Cities have higher crime-rates because they are cities.


Let's say there is a finite amount of the resource "education". First that is spread over 100 kids, but a few years later that same amount is spread over 50 kids. That means those 50 kids all get a better education, and are therefore less likely to resort to criminal activities. Same with lots of other things like housing, clothing and food down to the amount of love and support you receive from your parents.

This is the real world, not some mathproblem with everyone being equal.
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

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Snorri1234 wrote:
thegreekdog wrote:LESS PEOPLE DOES NOT MEAN A LOWER CRIME RATE!!!

I will retract the above, if you, Snorri, can prove to me, mathematically, and all other things being equal, how less people = a lower crime rate.
All else being equal? That's exactly my point, the amount of people influences how a city behaves. It won't be equal. The more people you get the more likely you get ghettos, poor education and a higher pay-off for crime. Cities have higher crime-rates because they are cities.


Let's say there is a finite amount of the resource "education". First that is spread over 100 kids, but a few years later that same amount is spread over 50 kids. That means those 50 kids all get a better education, and are therefore less likely to resort to criminal activities. Same with lots of other things like housing, clothing and food down to the amount of love and support you receive from your parents.

This is the real world, not some mathproblem with everyone being equal.
Yes, the real world. Where the rate of crime doesn't drop simply because there are less people.

If I go kill 100,000 people right now, the crime rate wouldn't drop. If I go kill 100,000 criminals, it would.
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by Snorri1234 »

thegreekdog wrote:
Snorri1234 wrote:
thegreekdog wrote:LESS PEOPLE DOES NOT MEAN A LOWER CRIME RATE!!!

I will retract the above, if you, Snorri, can prove to me, mathematically, and all other things being equal, how less people = a lower crime rate.
All else being equal? That's exactly my point, the amount of people influences how a city behaves. It won't be equal. The more people you get the more likely you get ghettos, poor education and a higher pay-off for crime. Cities have higher crime-rates because they are cities.


Let's say there is a finite amount of the resource "education". First that is spread over 100 kids, but a few years later that same amount is spread over 50 kids. That means those 50 kids all get a better education, and are therefore less likely to resort to criminal activities. Same with lots of other things like housing, clothing and food down to the amount of love and support you receive from your parents.

This is the real world, not some mathproblem with everyone being equal.
Yes, the real world. Where the rate of crime doesn't drop simply because there are less people.

If I go kill 100,000 people right now, the crime rate wouldn't drop. If I go kill 100,000 criminals, it would.
Actually, if you go and killed 100,000 people the crime rate would drop. Criminality isn't genetic. If you kill people then there are more resources left for the rest who then don't have to engage in criminal activities.

The crime rate doesn't drop simply because there are less people, it drops because of teh consequence of having less people.


According to you the crime rate should be the same everywhere.
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Re: Abortion decreases crime rates

Post by 72o »

Snorri1234 wrote:
thegreekdog wrote:LESS PEOPLE DOES NOT MEAN A LOWER CRIME RATE!!!

I will retract the above, if you, Snorri, can prove to me, mathematically, and all other things being equal, how less people = a lower crime rate.
All else being equal? That's exactly my point, the amount of people influences how a city behaves. It won't be equal. The more people you get the more likely you get ghettos, poor education and a higher pay-off for crime. Cities have higher crime-rates because they are cities.


Let's say there is a finite amount of the resource "education". First that is spread over 100 kids, but a few years later that same amount is spread over 50 kids. That means those 50 kids all get a better education, and are therefore less likely to resort to criminal activities. Same with lots of other things like housing, clothing and food down to the amount of love and support you receive from your parents.

This is the real world, not some mathproblem with everyone being equal.
This analogy doesn't work, because the resource "education" isn't finite. It is variable, based on the amount of money the taxpayers pay in to the system.

The reason cities fail in these areas compared to small towns is complex. Here's my ultra-simple, completely non-PC take on it.

Stupid people don't get good jobs. They could get crappy jobs, but that would only put them slightly above the standard of living if they live off the state. So they do what I would do. Live off the state. They don't have to work at all. This gives them more time to f*ck. Fucking is actually productive, because it produces more stupid children. The more stupid people you are responsible for, the more the state gives you.

Eventually those stupid people you were responsible for will begin fucking and having their own stupid children. And around and around it goes.

Now, cities see more of this than normal, because by the nature of being a city, space is in higher demand, and thus more valuable. This drives up the cost of everything. Because the standard of living is higher, the gap between working and living off the state widens. So those who do work must make even more to make it worthwhile when compared to not working and living off the state.

This will result in higher crime rates, as the state entitlements don't result in a standard of living that is as comfortable as the successful people. This disparity becomes apparent in all aspects of life. Housing, cars, clothes, etc. Stupid people will attempt to correct this "inequality", not by working, but through crime. In addition to this, stupid people will all eventually live in certain areas and run in certain circles, again due to their economic decision-making. More stupid people living in the same areas, seeing the same stupid people doing the same stupid things, makes them think it is normal and accepted. Thus they are more likely to repeat the same situation generation after generation.

So we have successful working people with good salaries, and we have stupid people. The taxes are designed to draw enough out of this pool to pay for the variable resource "education". We've already established the stupid people don't work. So they won't pay any taxes. That would be like writing yourself a check and depositing it into the account it's drawn on. So the successful working people pay taxes, which constitutes the entire pool for "education".

Now, "education" is a resource that is not rationed by how much you've contributed, but by how many children you have. The more children you have, the more "education" resource your family gets compared to the average family.

Successful people typically have fewer children, for several reasons. First, children don't represent a pay increase for them. In fact, it's quite the opposite. Second, they're busy working, so they don't f*ck as much. Third, they typically have a higher level of morality when it comes to marriage, monogamy, etc., so they can't procreate with multiple "baby mommas". Fourth, they understand that raising a child is a big responsibility and requires a lot of expense and effort to do it right, and would rather not do it than do it poorly. Stupid people don't share this view, primarily because the potential for monetary reward outweighs the moral concerns.

So, you've got this "education" resource that is being spread among a large number of stupid people's children, and a small number of successful people's children. Since the stupid people are given incentive to be stupid and produce more stupid people as fast as possible, this "education" is wasted on them, but since our society thinks it's important they are required to receive the resource anyway. So the successful people's children receive less "education" than they normally would. This will drive most of the successful people out of the area to the suburbs, where their "education" resource is more fairly distributed among the contributors. Which will in turn leave the city to only generate "education" revenue from taxing the successful people while they work in the city, which will result in less "education" per stupid person.
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