Madness - can this be right?

by **SailorGirl** on Fri Jan 15, 2010 1:42 pm

Hello all
My first post and I'm having a moan... typical woman huh :lol:

Just finshing a game of Madness, two player, as I speak. On round 6 and I have not won a single territory. 6 Vs 1, I lost. 4 vs 1, I lost.
I lost every single attack... what's the probability of that?!
Finished ranting now.
SG x

by **tdans** on Fri Jan 15, 2010 1:49 pm

ohh it happens to the best of us... just shrug off that game and carry on.. its really annoying.. but there aint really anything you can do about it.

by **Army of GOD** on Fri Jan 15, 2010 2:00 pm

SailorGirl wrote:Hello all
My first post and I'm having a moan... typical woman huh
Just finshing a game of Madness, two player, as I speak. On round 6 and I have not won a single territory. 6 Vs 1, I lost. 4 vs 1, I lost.
I lost every single attack... what's the probability of that?!
Finished ranting now.
SG x

Andomrayus, the god of the Conquer Club dice, accepts a sacrifice of 3 of our "human dice" every Thursday.

Never forget that.

by **KoolBak** on Fri Jan 15, 2010 2:05 pm

I've threatened to quit more times than I can recall due to krap dice streaks.....just cant give this damn place up though....lol.

Head up sailor girl...you'll be kicking arse and taking names before ya know it!

by **Georgerx7di** on Sun Jan 17, 2010 8:52 pm

6v1 failing (if you roll it down to a 1) is 1% or 1 in 100. 4v1 (if you rolled till you had 1 left) is 9%. So the odds that both will happen is .09% or 9 in 10,000. Which is about 1 in 1,111. So we could just say 1 in a 1,000 if you want.

by **keyborn** on Sun Jan 17, 2010 9:04 pm

Georgerx7di wrote:6v1 failing (if you roll it down to a 1) is 1% or 1 in 100. 4v1 (if you rolled till you had 1 left) is 9%. So the odds that both will happen is .09% or 9 in 10,000. Which is about 1 in 1,111. So we could just say 1 in a 1,000 if you want.

I don't think you all quite understand...she lost every roll for SIX rounds. SailorGirl never took a single territory the entire game. Included in that fiasco was at least one 6 v 1 and a 4 v 1 that she lost also. What are the odds of that george?

I don't recall ever having a game like that. Hang in there.

by **natty dread** on Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:05 am

Well I remember a doubles game where I was trying to take a territory for 4-5 rounds in a row, there were never more than 2 troops on it, and every time I lost all my troops... Nothing but -2 rolls the whole time.

by **Georgerx7di** on Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:05 pm

keyborn wrote:
Georgerx7di wrote:6v1 failing (if you roll it down to a 1) is 1% or 1 in 100. 4v1 (if you rolled till you had 1 left) is 9%. So the odds that both will happen is .09% or 9 in 10,000. Which is about 1 in 1,111. So we could just say 1 in a 1,000 if you want.

I don't think you all quite understand...she lost every roll for SIX rounds. SailorGirl never took a single territory the entire game. Included in that fiasco was at least one 6 v 1 and a 4 v 1 that she lost also. What are the odds of that george?

I don't recall ever having a game like that. Hang in there.

right, but you have to post the other 4 turns if you want the odds. If the next 4 were all 4v1, (which I doubt, didn't you ever reinforce those brave men), then we would have .01*(.09^5). Which I think comes out to .000000045 or .0000045% chance of it happening.

Now I know that your just trying to say that this was a ridiculous thing to have happen. I'm just being Fuh see shuhs (spell check can't find it, so I'm just going to spell it like a retard), at this point. Anyway, that number looks like 4.5 out of ten millions. So this should happen about once ever 1.8 million games. You guys can check my math, I think that's right. Looks to me like we are on about 6 million games right now, so this even should likely have happened about 3 times in cc history.

by **mibi** on Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:57 pm

the dice which are culled fom random.org experience a temporal break once a month when their severs flash the renew sequence. your game id likely got caught in a loop during the break. it happens, but is pretty rare.

by **MeDeFe** on Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:18 am

Madness? This isn't madness. This is ConquerClub!

It had to be said, other than that: What Georgerx7di said.

by **freakns** on Tue Jan 19, 2010 7:30 am

keyborn wrote:
Georgerx7di wrote:6v1 failing (if you roll it down to a 1) is 1% or 1 in 100. 4v1 (if you rolled till you had 1 left) is 9%. So the odds that both will happen is .09% or 9 in 10,000. Which is about 1 in 1,111. So we could just say 1 in a 1,000 if you want.

I don't think you all quite understand...she lost every roll for SIX rounds. SailorGirl never took a single territory the entire game. Included in that fiasco was at least one 6 v 1 and a 4 v 1 that she lost also. What are the odds of that george?

I don't recall ever having a game like that. Hang in there.

actually, she said:

SailorGirl wrote:Hello all
On round 6 and I have not won a single territory. 6 Vs 1, I lost. 4 vs 1, I lost.

she didnt say for 6 rounds i have not won a single territory. so the first calculation George did was correct...

as for SG... well, those things happens... wait until you get a bit more experience and start failing in attacks like 12 vs 1, 20 vs 2, or something like that... its pretty common

by **MeDeFe** on Wed Jan 20, 2010 7:08 am

freakns wrote:
keyborn wrote:
Georgerx7di wrote:6v1 failing (if you roll it down to a 1) is 1% or 1 in 100. 4v1 (if you rolled till you had 1 left) is 9%. So the odds that both will happen is .09% or 9 in 10,000. Which is about 1 in 1,111. So we could just say 1 in a 1,000 if you want.

I don't think you all quite understand...she lost every roll for SIX rounds. SailorGirl never took a single territory the entire game. Included in that fiasco was at least one 6 v 1 and a 4 v 1 that she lost also. What are the odds of that george?

I don't recall ever having a game like that. Hang in there.

actually, she said:
SailorGirl wrote:Hello all
On round 6 and I have not won a single territory. 6 Vs 1, I lost. 4 vs 1, I lost.

she didnt say for 6 rounds i have not won a single territory. so the first calculation George did was correct...

as for SG... well, those things happens... wait until you get a bit more experience and start failing in attacks like 12 vs 1, 20 vs 2, or something like that... its pretty common

You mean threads about it are common in GD, there's a difference.

by **JoshyBoy** on Wed Jan 20, 2010 9:07 am

Welcome to CC. Just wait until you get 31 v 5 and lose all. :roll:

by **jleonnn** on Fri Jan 22, 2010 5:20 am

Get used to it... i had a 4 player game and had 1 territ left to win the game, it was 34v4...guess what? Yes, I didn't win. Let me see... Ah yes, here it is: game Game 5311503

by **nikola_milicki** on Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:41 am

jleonnn wrote:Get used to it... i had a 4 player game and had 1 territ left to win the game, it was 34v4...guess what? Yes, I didn't win. Let me see... Ah yes, here it is: game Game 5311503

but u did win!