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MAFIA - X-Men Legends [Game over -- Town wins!]

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Postby AndyDufresne on Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:22 pm

Okay, lets do some quick math:

8 Mafia in 25 player game = 32% ish...standard. Usually 1/3 as that is. So normal there.

Now we've had at least 3 Blues = 12%

7 Pro-Town (Thus far dead) = 28%

======================

72% when you add all. Assuming that out of the 8 remaining, 7 are townies, that pushes the townies up to 56%.

Now add all that up, you get 100%.

So I think the chances are there are no more 'blue' roles left, and that 7 people in this town can be trusted.

Now if need be, if the town thinks that I am indeed the last remaining Mafia, I'm willing to let myself be lynched to get the 'elephant' out of the room, if you all suspect me.

So if you lynch me today, and there is a night kill, knocks it down to 4 trustables and 1 mafia. Depending on who dies in the night, you will have to look very closely at the remaining folks, and judge them carefully, and how they've acted over the last few days.

Right now, I've no idea who I think is the last mafia. As I said earlier, Marv isn't so suspicious, but the fact he is still here, is interesting. Perhaps I am alive, because I was right about something with him. Or he is not Mafia, and the Mafia figured I could push a lynch against him (as you recall, there were a lot of 'oh, that's interesting, lets hear more from marv posts' after I posted my large post about him).

Also the fact Moz is still around, is interesting. He hasn't been especially active, but I've seen that as a mafia tactic before (actually even in this game, look at Kernal_K and RK). But the mafia may have left him in because he simply isn't active, and isn't a threat to anyone.

Hm, Sully still scares me, but the fact no one else has said they are a doctor...makes me believe him. I don't see how AK can include 2 'fake' doctor roles without at least 1 real one. But still, look closely at him.

Dussle, as maybe VGM posted earlier, the fact that his role keeps getting passed around, he seems like a townie without any powers. Or perhaps he was mafia, and his team mates were pissed that the replacements were active, but I think the first case is most likely the way to go.

Senfive, I've had him on my trust list for so long...another reason I may be in the game. We've all assumed he was townie because he posted some information we believe cleared him, but it was quite a long time ago, and lets not all forget that Mach could talk to Autoload, and who knows what information was divulged.

Trestain, Hm, he claimed Pysch, a convienent role, but still plausible. I can't get much of a read on him.

VGM, can't get much of a read on him, mostly because I've never played with him before. He's posted alot recently, so I'll look over his recent posts, as everyone should.

That's all I have to say for now! Woooh..


--Andy
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Postby AndyDufresne on Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:32 pm

AndyDufresne wrote:Okay, lets do some quick math:

8 Mafia in 25 player game = 32% ish...standard. Usually 1/3 as that is. So normal there.

Now we've had at least 3 Blues = 12%

7 Pro-Town (Thus far dead) = 28%

======================

72% when you add all. Assuming that out of the 8 remaining, 7 are townies, that pushes the townies up to 56%.

Now add all that up, you get 100%.

So I think the chances are there are no more 'blue' roles left, and that 7 people in this town can be trusted.

Now if need be, if the town thinks that I am indeed the last remaining Mafia, I'm willing to let myself be lynched to get the 'elephant' out of the room, if you all suspect me.

So if you lynch me today, and there is a night kill, knocks it down to 4 trustables and 1 mafia. ...


That should say: Knocks 5 trustables, and 1 mafia.

But upon further reflection, it may make sense that are is 1 more blue role out there. Consider this 8 in 25 = 1/3 of the game. Half of 8 is 4, which is 16%. 8+4 = 12...nearly half.

Which leaves the town with 13 -- Half -- ...to round out everything.

So perhaps we currently have 6 trustable people, 1 blue, and 1 mafia left. IF we do have 1 blue left, and the win condition is not similar to the town's, finding this person may be very difficult, but I've an idea who it may be.

Anyways, math is not my strong suit, I'm more of a word man, so forgive me if it seems fuzzy.


--Andy
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Postby Senfive on Mon Mar 05, 2007 10:38 pm

AndyDufresne wrote:
AndyDufresne wrote:Okay, lets do some quick math:

8 Mafia in 25 player game = 32% ish...standard. Usually 1/3 as that is. So normal there.

Now we've had at least 3 Blues = 12%

7 Pro-Town (Thus far dead) = 28%

======================

72% when you add all. Assuming that out of the 8 remaining, 7 are townies, that pushes the townies up to 56%.

Now add all that up, you get 100%.

So I think the chances are there are no more 'blue' roles left, and that 7 people in this town can be trusted.

Now if need be, if the town thinks that I am indeed the last remaining Mafia, I'm willing to let myself be lynched to get the 'elephant' out of the room, if you all suspect me.

So if you lynch me today, and there is a night kill, knocks it down to 4 trustables and 1 mafia. ...


That should say: Knocks 5 trustables, and 1 mafia.

But upon further reflection, it may make sense that are is 1 more blue role out there. Consider this 8 in 25 = 1/3 of the game. Half of 8 is 4, which is 16%. 8+4 = 12...nearly half.

Which leaves the town with 13 -- Half -- ...to round out everything.

So perhaps we currently have 6 trustable people, 1 blue, and 1 mafia left. IF we do have 1 blue left, and the win condition is not similar to the town's, finding this person may be very difficult, but I've an idea who it may be.

Anyways, math is not my strong suit, I'm more of a word man, so forgive me if it seems fuzzy.


--Andy


I Figure now is a good a time as any to come out and say that I am Nightcrawler, A.K.A. Hider. my power is to be able to hide every other night and be immune to being killed at night on the days that I hide. I am the last blue if Andy's math is correct. I win when all mafia are eliminated. I don't see how all blues can be bad when I have this win condition. I am also willing to be lynched if you see my blue role as a threat. I know the town is owning this game thanks to Hos going insane. Nothing more I can really add except I want to hear what sully has to say about Hos killing Wicked. Going to see zodiac and will answer any questions when I get back.
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Postby AK_iceman on Mon Mar 05, 2007 10:43 pm

Sully800, (Protown -- Doctor) dies mysteriously during the day.

Continue with the DAY!
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Postby Senfive on Mon Mar 05, 2007 10:46 pm

AK_iceman wrote:Sully800, (Protown -- Doctor) dies mysteriously during the day.

Continue with the DAY!


OMG. so much for hearing from him. nice set up who ever is the day killer. Leaving now.
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Postby AK_iceman on Mon Mar 05, 2007 10:46 pm

Vote Count

  • [7] Not Voting, Everyone Else


4 Total Votes are needed for a Lynch or No Lynch


Day Deadline: 09 Mar 2007 02:19 GMT.

P.S. Thats just a little less than 3 days away. :wink:
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Postby Marvaddin on Mon Mar 05, 2007 10:48 pm

AndyDufresne wrote:Now if need be, if the town thinks that I am indeed the last remaining Mafia, I'm willing to let myself be lynched to get the 'elephant' out of the room, if you all suspect me.

So I think you have realized how scummy you are! Houssam have accused both you and wicked. The way he talked about losing the game... I strongly believe his team is dead, too. But thinking again about his accusations,... he got another mafia, wicked. Looks like he was well informed about that, huh? Dont ask me how, however. But in fact, I think he knew at least wicked role. If you are not mafia, Andy, this is a big Houssam trick, offer us a mafia head, so we would lynch the "mayor". If he was accusing wicked, but she was not mafia, his accusations would be useless, but since he was well informed about wicked, I would like to see the colour of your blood, mate.

About the others:
Dussle is a submarine... but really the fact of the multiple substitutes makes me feel this was a boring role, really like a vanilla townie.

moz, I dont trust him really... hes being a submarine, but its strange on his part, so I keep an eye on him.

Senfive, I never trusted, but I feel no more thaaaat danger coming from him

Sully is acting really like in the game we was mafia. Is being defensive, not accusing anyone... just talking "what a good point". And is always standing away from the confusion, trying to have peace with all people. By the way, who were you protecting last nights, sully?

trestain is looking much more reasonable now, hes cooperating with the town (at least it seems) and in fact I dont think hes mafia.

vgm is strange... this names theory, I doubt AK would really do that. Plus, its strange as no one have listed the supposed names of the players. I, for example, have never shared my X-men name in the whole game... How could vgm be so silly?

About me, Andy, and the fact Im still playing, remember yourself this is just my 2nd mafia game. I was one of those that have afirmed ther should be 6 mafia... in my single previous game, there was 3 mafia out of 12, so 25%. I thought 33% would be too high.

Well, I also think there is a day SK, and Im almost sure there will be a day kill again today. Maybe the SK can get the mafia one, this assuming its not a mafia vigilante or something alike.
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Postby Marvaddin on Mon Mar 05, 2007 10:49 pm

And then I was fast posted with the day kill :(
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Postby reverend_kyle on Tue Mar 06, 2007 3:34 am

Go Mafia!
DANCING MUSTARD FOR POOP IN '08!
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hi

Postby trestain on Tue Mar 06, 2007 5:43 am

Shit, the DK got sully, not good news.

not sure what to think about this game anymore I certainly don't trust any single one of you . I think I am leaning towards voting for Moz or Dussle tonight though, both are still not posting and I have seen moz online(lurking) a few times so i am leaning more towards Moz at the moment.
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Postby moz976 on Tue Mar 06, 2007 8:06 am

I still think that treistan is the most scummy out of everyone left.

I think Andy was just a set up by houssam.

Marv doesn't seem to act like mafia this game but I'm never very good at reading him.

Senfive I have trusted most of the game because of his early claim. And his recent role claim which seems likely.

Dussle hardly posts but since the role has passed through many hands I would guess that it is a boring one.

VGM I think is another possible set up victim but I'm not positive on that.

Does anyone have a list of the known names of palyers to xmen characters?

I think it is interesting that Wicked(Mafia) said that the names did not match characters alignment.
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Postby Marvaddin on Tue Mar 06, 2007 11:05 am

Let me express myself better... My suspects list:

1- Andy
2- vgm
3- moz
4- everyone else

Who is not opining yet??
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Postby Senfive on Tue Mar 06, 2007 11:07 am

Andy I need more of your thoughts. :P
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Postby moz976 on Tue Mar 06, 2007 12:46 pm

Ok this is what I found from looking back at the killing patterns in the game.

Since we know there are two mafia families I think that one was a night killing mafia and the other was a day killing mafia.

To explain the one two kill night you have the serial killer who I think could only kill on odd number nights and since he was killed on night three his action was not played.

Also judging by the number of mafia members already outed I would guess that we just have one left and from the killing today I would guess that he is a part of the day killing mafia.

If this theory is correct we will not have a killing tonight.

Any thoughts on this theory?
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Postby wicked on Tue Mar 06, 2007 12:52 pm

:-#

BOO!!! Hell is kewl! w00t!!
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Postby Marvaddin on Tue Mar 06, 2007 3:14 pm

Very interesting theory, moz. I had never thought about that... but looks true. But we can only confirm this after the night, in fact. Lets hope you are right... Having 2 townies killed each day/night at this point would be terrible.
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hi

Postby trestain on Tue Mar 06, 2007 4:34 pm

yes that is a good theory Moz, would be good news if you are right.
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Postby vgmmaster on Tue Mar 06, 2007 4:49 pm

I do like the the nightkill mafia / daykill mafia theory. There is a daykiller of some sort, that much is certain.

For your question Moz, concerning the known x-men roles, here's part of a post from page 96.

vgmmaster wrote:Trestain, this is the info I'm talking about.

vgmmaster wrote:
Nyvek wrote:
vgmmaster wrote:While this may or may not be 100% accurate, I did a little studying recetnly.

With the exception of RK and Sam Jam (role names unknown), all of the other mafia member's x-men names are or were villains of the x-men group. Trestain has claimed Pyro as his name. Pyro's affiliation is with the Brotherhood of Mutants and the Freedom Force. Both groups contain x-men villains.

However, Puff's name (Magneto) doesn't make any sense. According to my philosphy, he should be a mafia member. However, he was an insane doctor. (Take that however you want). Also, Red Bull's name was never revealed.

But, as the other mafia members have x-men villains as their name, and how Trestain's name is Pyro (an x-men villian), I believe that Trestain is mafia.

VOTE: Trestain


I'm seeing inconsistencies with your theory. I'm not a big X-Man guru so I had to go online to check their bios. These are the named roles we have to analyze.
Beast – Protown Day Cop, correct
Cannonball – Protown Cop, correct
Husk – Protown Vanilla Mutant, correct
Iceman – Neutral Instigator, wrong
Magneto – ProTown Insane Doc, wrong
Marrow – Mafia Cop, correct
Psylocke – Vanilla Mafia, wrong
Pyro – Protown Psychiatrist(claimed), wrong
Thunderbird – Vanilla Mafia, wrong
Wolverine – Mafia, wrong

Is this list accurate?
Beast, Cannonball, Husk, Iceman, Psylocke, Thunderbird and Wolverine are supposed to be good guys right?
Magneto, Marrow and Pyro supposedly the bad ones?


I'm not sure what an instigator is, but I don't think he is Anti-Town. So, Iceman being innocent fits with my theory. For the others, I can prove that you're wrong.

Psylocke was a good guy for a long while, but she was evil for a short period of time. During that time, she was known as Lady Mandarin who became the Hand's assassin. Also, she was a member of the Hellfire club, a group of villians.

Wolverine normally is good. He was evil for a short period of time however. At one time he was a member of the Horsemen of the Apocolypse. During his stint there, he was the incarnation of death. Also, the HotA, was a supervillain group.

Thunderbird is a bit diffucult to place. He was a member of the Marine Corps at one time. While they aren't super villains, they were a faction of the government. And unless I'm mistaken, the government wanted to eliminate the x-men.

Magneto, was mainly evil, but a good guy for a short period of time. The time where he was an ally with the x-men was against some alien beast called the beyonder.

For Pyro, he was a villian. You say I'm wrong, but you're not correct in your statement either. Trestian claimed Psychiatrist, but he is not a confirmed Psychiatrist. Therefore, he could be lying. Moz caught my hint to that as well.

Also, my x-men theory is based off the information at wikipedia.


Not all of the roles were revealed. Around the time RK died (perhaps slightly before then), the role names were no longer revealed.

Also, role claims:

Andy: Warpath - Mayor
Senfive: Nightcrawler - Hider
Sully (dead): Multiple Man - Doc
Trestain: Pyro - Psychiratrist

I have some info I'm going to mention here soon. This post was mainly to answer Moz's question.
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Postby AK_iceman on Tue Mar 06, 2007 4:58 pm

Vote Count

  • [7] Not Voting, Everyone Else


4 Total Votes are needed for a Lynch or No Lynch


Day Deadline: 09 Mar 2007 02:19 GMT.
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Postby vgmmaster on Tue Mar 06, 2007 5:32 pm

Andy: Warpath - Mayor
Senfive: Nightcrawler - Hider
Sully (dead): Multiple Man - Doc
Trestain: Pyro - Psychiratrist


Those are the claimed roles and names.

For my analysis:

I don't know exactly if Andy would be a mayor or a corrupt mayor, but I think his story possibly works. Warpath is the brother of Thunderbird (who died earlier in this game). Now, as a mayor can save somebody from a lynch, this story makes sense. It's hard to explain, but let's just say that Warpath doesn't want anybody else to die if he can possibly save them.

For Senfive, his claim as nightcrawler also works. Seeing how nightcrawler can transport anywhere (including to or from danger), his story naturally makes sense.

Now for Sully. When I mentioned earlier that I truested Sully 110%, I can now explain why. I didn't want to mention it earlier, in case it port him in danger. Earlier in the game, Sully claimed Doc. Nobody wanted to lynch him, as the possibility existed that he was telling the truth. However, I'm assuming somebody didn't believe it, as he was never night-killed. (That, or perhaps the mafia thought he could protect himself). Yes, people were suspicious of his claim, and that may have something to with it. Anyways, Sully claimed Jamie Madrox aka Multiple Man. MM was the lab assistant of Moira MacTaggert who, more or less, was a doctor who majored in genetics. As MM was her assistant, we can only assume that MM learned the ways of the doctor, which explains his doctor role in this game.

Now for Trestain. Seeing how my x-men theory works to some extent for about 90-99% of the characters that have been revealed, Trestain seems suspicious immediately (his name is Pyro). First, there were two days were Trestain voted, and that was his only post. If I remember correctly, those posts didn't have much information in them either. Then one day, he avoided completely. Also, there's the fact that his role has a very convientent timing. Not only did the SK die recently before the roleclaim, it's possible that he stole that role from another game to protect himself. (Moz knows what I'm referring to here and can back me up on this particular situation). Something else that seemed suspicious. When Trestain argued with me concerning that my x-men theory is wrong, I agreed to an extent that it could be possible, as most people would go with their more familiar roles and sides. (ex: Wolverine would be Pro-Town and Magneto would be Pro-Mafia/Scum). However, I thought about this last night. Because Trestain's x-men name is Pyro, what if he argued with my theory because it would put him in danger. NOTE: Pyro never allied with the x-men. I believe that Trestain is arguing with my theory to protect himself, and I believe that his role claim had suspicious timing which makes me think that he's trying to lie through the skin of his teeth.

Therefore,

VOTE: Trestain.

After thinking about it, I'm almost 99.9% sure that you are mafia.

Also, something else strikes me as odd. Concerning the most recent night, we reached the night deadline if I'm not mistaken. Due to that, I wonder if Moz could possibly be scum or have a Pro-Town power role. Moz is normally away for the weekend, so I believe he has a power-role of some sort, question is, is he Pro-Town or Pro-Mafia.

Moz, if you don't mind me asking, can I hear what your x-men name is. This may clear you from suspicion possibly.

Also, I believe Dussle is innocent. As mentioned earlier (I think it was Andy), his role was passed around like a hot potato. Therefore, it may have been a boring role such as a Vanilla Townie.

The only one I don't have a possible thought on, is Marv. However, I don't necessarily suspect him, so I think he's ok for right now.
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Postby dussle on Tue Mar 06, 2007 6:22 pm

Sorry guys, I know I've been submarining, but unfortunately I only have just enough time to keep up with the game.
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Postby dussle on Tue Mar 06, 2007 6:24 pm

vgmmaster wrote:Therefore,

VOTE: Trestain.

After thinking about it, I'm almost 99.9% sure that you are mafia.


Wow I wouldn't. Trestain acts scummy but never actually is. I know from past experience. If people follow this vote I hope you're right, but I urge you all not to vote for him unless completely sure. Do we have a cop still living? We could use him.
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Postby AK_iceman on Tue Mar 06, 2007 6:29 pm

Vote Count

  • [1] trestain -- (vgmmaster)
  • [6] Not Voting, Everyone Else


4 Total Votes are needed for a Lynch or No Lynch


Day Deadline: 09 Mar 2007 02:19 GMT.
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hi

Postby trestain on Tue Mar 06, 2007 7:03 pm

vgm you should listen to dussle he is right, I am most definately protown.

Concerning your theory how many times do we have to go through it IT HAS BEEN PROVED WRONG i was suspicious of you last time for continuing to follow it, you even said yourself that there is flaws in it.

I feel that maybe you are mafia but your name is one that is a good x-men characterd this is the only reason you are continuing to push it. trying to get yourself a foothold with the town so they don't suspect you

vote vgmmaster
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Postby AK_iceman on Tue Mar 06, 2007 7:41 pm

Vote Count

  • [1] trestain -- (vgmmaster)
  • [1] vgmmaster -- (trestain)
  • [5] Not Voting, Everyone Else


4 Total Votes are needed for a Lynch or No Lynch


Day Deadline: 09 Mar 2007 02:19 GMT.
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