NFL Picks: AFC/NFC Championship Games

[Army of GOD]

Add Flacco to the over-rated QBs list oVo =D

Next time Tebow has a bad day and gets schooled by a defense, I'm calling him overrated.

So... how 'bout that Tebow?

I blame the French

[Army of GOD]

Wow, talk about the Eagles making a statement.

I sure hope tomorrow's game is good...it's been a while since we've had an interesting Primetime game (though I hope both the Chargers and Chiefs somehow lose).

[Crazyirishman]

dammit I forgot to pick teams again this week

[AndyDufresne]

Wow, talk about the Eagles making a statement.

I sure hope tomorrow's game is good...it's been a while since we've had an interesting Primetime game (though I hope both the Chargers and Chiefs somehow lose).

I don't hold out any hope for the match-up.

============

Outcomes I was most intrigued about seeing: Rams, Giants, Ravens, Texans, Lions, Bills, 49ers, Steelers, Bengals.

Rams make the list for the dominant upset. Ravens, Steelers, and 49ers I figured would all win, but it is nice to see them keep winning and showing they're contenders.

Giants, Texans, Lions, Bills, and Bengals I was less sure about going into the weekend, because in history it has been tough to expect much, but they all showed they are growing into contenders.

=========

Good games coming up this next week:

Jets (4-3) V Bills (5-2),
Bucs (4-3) V Saints (5-3),
Bengals (5-2) V Titans (4-3),
Giants (5-2) V Patriots (5-2),
Packers (7-0) V Chargers (4-2 as this post, possibly 5-2 or 4-3)
Ravens (5-2) V Steelers (6-2)


--Andy

[oVo]

The underrated Flacco brought the Ravens back from a 3 TD deficit
and the Dolphins failed to finish yet one more game.

The owboys took a serious butt whuppin' in Philly last night. Andy Reid's teams
are now 13-0 after a bye week. All but 3 4 home teams prevailed, including
the Rams who managed to keep the World Series bliss going in St.Louis.

Week 8
ARI @ BAL a 21 pt comeback for the Ravens
MINN @ CAR Panthers miss a chip shot FG to avoid an OT and Vikes get comeback win
JAC @ HOU
MIA @ NYG Giants' first lead late in the 4th as the fishes see another one slip away
NO @ STL stunner of the day Rams finally win one!
IND @ TENN
WAS @ BUFF Bills sack Skins... Shanahan handed first shutout as a head coach
DET @ DEN
NE @ PITT Steelers playing like you expect Steelers to play
CIN @ SEA Bengals wake up after last week's snoozer in Cincy
CLE @ SF
DAL @ PHI "Big Game" build up fizzles as Philly dominates all 4 quarters
KC @ SD bumbling, fumbling Chargers lose again... Chiefs take it on OT.

9-4 . . . 74-42

[Crazyirishman]

Week 8
ARI @ BAL a 21 pt comeback for the Ravens
MINN @ CAR Panthers miss a chip shot FG to avoid an OT and Vikes get comeback win
JAC @ HOU
MIA @ NYG Giants' first lead late in the 4th as the fishes see another one slip away
NO @ STL stunner of the day Rams finally win one!
IND @ TENN
WAS @ BUFF Bills sack Skins... Shanahan handed first shutout as a head coach
DET @ DEN
NE @ PITT Steelers playing like you expect Steelers to play
CIN @ SEA Bengals wake up after last week's snoozer in Cincy
CLE @ SF
DAL @ PHI "Big Game" build up fizzles as Philly dominates all 4 quarters
KC @ SD Chiefs have quietly built a winning streak

9-3 . . . 74-41

Do you sports headlines for the local paper or something?

[AndyDufresne]

Do you sports headlines for the local paper or something?

If not, he does some sports headlines for the Off Topics forum.


--Andy

[Army of GOD]

Coincidentally, right before the Chargers blew that last minute snap to give the Chiefs the ball, I wondered what it would be like if they fumbled it. Awful play and Rivers is a giant douche so he deserves it.

[pancakemix]

Week 8 results
ARI @ BAL The Ravens are who we thought they were.
MIN @ CAR
JAC @ HOU
MIA @ NYG
NO @ STL The Saints don't do diddly-poo until late in the game
IND @ TEN Playoffs? You kiddin' me? I just hope we can win a game...
WAS @ BUF
DET @ DEN
NE @ PIT No complaints here.
CIN @ SEA
CLE @ SF
DAL @ PHI Decisive win by the Eagles, but it's not enough. We need to go deeper.
KC @ SD

8-5 (74-41)

[Serbia]

Add Flacco to the over-rated QBs list oVo =D

Next time Tebow has a bad day and gets schooled by a defense, I'm calling him overrated.

So... how 'bout that Tebow?

I blame the French

It's too bad Detroit isn't in the AFC West. Would be fun to have a chance to dismantle Tebow twice in one season. Dude is awful. Statistically, not much better than Orton either. Where's the fevered cry for Quinn?

[oVo]

NFL = No Free Lunches

[Army of GOD]

Add Flacco to the over-rated QBs list oVo =D

Next time Tebow has a bad day and gets schooled by a defense, I'm calling him overrated.

So... how 'bout that Tebow?

I blame the French

It's too bad Detroit isn't in the AFC West. Would be fun to have a chance to dismantle Tebow twice in one season. Dude is awful. Statistically, not much better than Orton either. Where's the fevered cry for Quinn?

This is Tebow's second season, his fifth game starting and Orton has been playing for what...6-7 years?

I didn't know Tebow was supposed to be the greatest QB ever in his first few starts.

[safariguy5]

This is Tebow's second season, his fifth game starting and Orton has been playing for what...6-7 years?

I didn't know Tebow was supposed to be the greatest QB ever in his first few starts.

If Tebow was ready to start in his second season, he wouldn't have lost the QB competition to Orton in training camp.

Here's what happened, Josh McDaniels made a bad draft choice by drafting Tebow waay too early. The fanbase, taking Tebow's draft position and college career into consideration, expected that he would be a polished QB ready for the NFL game.

Then, after McDaniels leaves, the front office and the coaches realize that Tebow is still very raw, with too much of a windup when he throws, and the inability to make secondary reads. So they wisely gave the starting job to Orton.

Now, after Orton struggles, the front office and coaches cave to fan pressure and start Orton, who is clearly still several years away from developing into a decent QB.

At this point, do we really thing Tebow is going to be the second coming of Brady/Manning? No, but with more time, he could be a good solid league average QB. I see him closer to David Garrard, but he needs a lot more time to develop.

[Crazyirishman]

Then, after McDaniels leaves, the front office and the coaches realize that Tebow is still very raw, with too much of a windup when he throws, and the inability to make secondary reads. So they wisely gave the starting job to Orton.

Now, after Orton struggles, the front office and coaches cave to fan pressure and start Orton, who is clearly still several years away from developing into a decent QB.

At this point, do we really thing Tebow is going to be the second coming of Brady/Manning? No, but with more time, he could be a good solid league average QB. I see him closer to David Garrard, but he needs a lot more time to develop.

Correction, in the offseason the front office announced that Tebow would be the starter and that they would trade Orton because they knew hed win the QB competition. Then the lockout happened and afterward the trade with the dolphins fell through and orton got stuck with Denver when it wasnt in anybodys interest to have him there. Then orton won the starting job and proceeded to suck it up (with help of course from lack of special teams and a new developing defense/run game along with the multitude of other roster problems Denver has) so they gave Tebow a shot to see what he could do because of the fan pressure and billbords and other shit, but because of all there other problems along with trading their best receiver who they should have resigned and you get what we have now

[Army of GOD]

And I don't get the "he's statistically the same as Orton" argument. That means he's AS GOOD as Orton. So why in God's name do we think Orton should go back to starting when Tebow is the same?

[safariguy5]

And I don't get the "he's statistically the same as Orton" argument. That means he's AS GOOD as Orton. So why in God's name do we think Orton should go back to starting when Tebow is the same?

He's nowhere near as good as Orton statistically. We know QB rating is flawed, so let's look at DVOA, courtesy of Football Outsiders.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

According to the chart, Orton is 28th in both major statistics. Tebow is either last or second to last in either statistic. While Orton hasn't played very well, he's still playing better than McCoy, Cassel, Kolb, Moore, and Gabbert. So he's playing better than Tebow for sure.

Let's look at Orton's 2010 year. The team went 3-9 under McDaniels (who I believe created the Tebow mess).

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2010

Orton was 12th and 17th respectively. Not a superstar, but a good league average QB.

Orton's 2009 Year? Shows that he's 12th and 17th as well.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2009

So I would argue that Orton is having a bad year. Probably partly his fault, but also probably due to other factors as well. By no means is he a bad QB statistically speaking. But statistically, he's much better than Tebow.

[oVo]

I don't think Denver is caving in to fan pressure. Looking at the rookie success
that both Dalton and Newton have enjoyed so far this season, it's more likely
that the Broncos are just testing the waters to see what they've got.

They know they lack the supporting cast and even Tebow can't work miracles,
but I do think he has NFL QB talent. His college career was no fluke.

[Army of GOD]

And I don't get the "he's statistically the same as Orton" argument. That means he's AS GOOD as Orton. So why in God's name do we think Orton should go back to starting when Tebow is the same?

He's nowhere near as good as Orton statistically. We know QB rating is flawed, so let's look at DVOA, courtesy of Football Outsiders.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

According to the chart, Orton is 28th in both major statistics. Tebow is either last or second to last in either statistic. While Orton hasn't played very well, he's still playing better than McCoy, Cassel, Kolb, Moore, and Gabbert. So he's playing better than Tebow for sure.

Let's look at Orton's 2010 year. The team went 3-9 under McDaniels (who I believe created the Tebow mess).

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2010

Orton was 12th and 17th respectively. Not a superstar, but a good league average QB.

Orton's 2009 Year? Shows that he's 12th and 17th as well.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2009

So I would argue that Orton is having a bad year. Probably partly his fault, but also probably due to other factors as well. By no means is he a bad QB statistically speaking. But statistically, he's much better than Tebow.

Ok, but that's in passing. Like the passer rating, it ignores a QBs ability to run the ball, which, according to the rushing DVOA and whatever the other one is, Tebow is fourth in the league after two starts.

Also, I've been trying to gauge whether or not ESPN's new QB stat, QBR, is just a crock of shit that ESPN wants us to buy or if it has legitimacy. From what I've heard and read about it, there's a great amount of subjectivity involved (like, the statisticians decide how much a QB is at fault for a sack I think), so I have no clue if I like it.

[Army of GOD]

Also also, I don't know how much it takes this into effect, but under McDaniels last year we were a pure passing team. I'm sure that helps Orton's stats a bit.

[Army of GOD]

Also also also (f*ck, I gotta stop doing this), Tebow played much better last year in his starts, so we gotta stop acting as if his first two starts this year are his first starts ever. In fact, according to the 2010 stats you posted safari, his DVOA is HIGHER than Orton's (while his DYAR is significantly less, though I think that's because it's gross yards, right?).

I'm convinced Fox either doesn't want Tebow or doesn't know how to use him effectively. But I like Tebow a lot more than I like Fox so Fox can go f*ck himself.

[Serbia]

The amount of time we spend discussing a bad "rookie" quarterback playing for one of the worst teams in the NFL is astounding. No one is discussing the surprising Bengals or Bills, but EVERYONE is debating Denver. That's sad.

Right now, on this team, Tebow sucks. And it's not just the team's fault. He's just bad.

[safariguy5]

Unfortunately AoG, emphasis on the pass game is how the game has evolved. The best teams of this era, (Colts, Pats, Saints, Packers) have very pass oriented offensive schemes. That's why we see the decline in 300 carry workhorse backs, the increased drafting of big athletic TE's who can catch the ball, and the many passing records that are being broken or in danger of being broken. A mobile quarterback can be good, but he needs to have the arm strength and accuracy to hit his receivers on the run. Mike Vick and Ben Roethlisberger are good QB's because they can extend the play and hit receivers when out of the pocket.

When Tebow get's out of the pocket, he takes his eyes off his receivers and tries to make something happen with his legs. The easy solution to that is to just QB spy.

[safariguy5]

The amount of time we spend discussing a bad "rookie" quarterback playing for one of the worst teams in the NFL is astounding. No one is discussing the surprising Bengals or Bills, but EVERYONE is debating Denver. That's sad.

Right now, on this team, Tebow sucks. And it's not just the team's fault. He's just bad.

Bengals still have to face the Steelers and the Ravens twice. Somehow, I don't see it happening.

Bills are good, but we'll see how they do against the Jets this week. Tough matchup for their receivers, Jackson has to make something happen with his legs.

[Army of GOD]

Unfortunately AoG, emphasis on the pass game is how the game has evolved. The best teams of this era, (Colts, Pats, Saints, Packers) have very pass oriented offensive schemes. That's why we see the decline in 300 carry workhorse backs, the increased drafting of big athletic TE's who can catch the ball, and the many passing records that are being broken or in danger of being broken. A mobile quarterback can be good, but he needs to have the arm strength and accuracy to hit his receivers on the run. Mike Vick and Ben Roethlisberger are good QB's because they can extend the play and hit receivers when out of the pocket.

When Tebow get's out of the pocket, he takes his eyes off his receivers and tries to make something happen with his legs. The easy solution to that is to just QB spy.

That's because he's young. If I remember correctly (I might be wrong) Vick had that same exact problem when he was young with the Falcons. He can be coached. I just think Fox is a shit coach for him.

And runs can still have a big impact on a game, like how Tebow ran in the 2-point conversion against Miami. Honestly, they should've done that against the Chargers instead of throwing a fade to Lloyd, but whatever.

[safariguy5]

Unfortunately AoG, emphasis on the pass game is how the game has evolved. The best teams of this era, (Colts, Pats, Saints, Packers) have very pass oriented offensive schemes. That's why we see the decline in 300 carry workhorse backs, the increased drafting of big athletic TE's who can catch the ball, and the many passing records that are being broken or in danger of being broken. A mobile quarterback can be good, but he needs to have the arm strength and accuracy to hit his receivers on the run. Mike Vick and Ben Roethlisberger are good QB's because they can extend the play and hit receivers when out of the pocket.

When Tebow get's out of the pocket, he takes his eyes off his receivers and tries to make something happen with his legs. The easy solution to that is to just QB spy.

That's because he's young. If I remember correctly (I might be wrong) Vick had that same exact problem when he was young with the Falcons. He can be coached. I just think Fox is a shit coach for him.

And runs can still have a big impact on a game, like how Tebow ran in the 2-point conversion against Miami. Honestly, they should've done that against the Chargers instead of throwing a fade to Lloyd, but whatever.

Honestly, the Dolphins were probably the only people in the stadium who didn't think Tebow was going to run that play. All it shows is the Dolphins inability to close out games and their all around suckitude.

I think Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly are going to have a field day.