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Dexter Mafia S2. Fires Snuffed: Endgame Town and Dexter Win

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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby safariguy5 on Tue Aug 28, 2012 6:19 pm

I looked at the facts here.

Fact: The other person who claimed VT was fakeclaiming.
Fact: The two townies who have died were both investigative roles.
Fact: There were 2 NK's plus a potential third one that was prevented from jonty dying Day 1.
Fact: One of the roles had a one-shot investigate.
Fact: There were only 13 players to start this game.

If you or someone can explain to me how you would expect town to have VT players with a potential of 3 NK's per night in a 13 player game and still have a fighting chance, I will reconsider my case on you.

I will say that I expect town to have a lot of investigative and maybe extra protective roles to combat the extra SKers/overeager vigs (whatever Dexter may be). I think that the SKers work independent of each other and there is a possibility that they will target each other. That said, with the possibility for multiple townies to be killed each night, it makes the most sense for this to be a NV game given the relatively small player pool.

All you've said this entire day as a defense BG, is to rant about how everyone is showing me favoritism because of veteran bias. You've offered nothing to explain your view of how the game can be balanced with VT's nor have you offered a better lead besides voting me for what you believe is a bad case.

I will make it clear that I am not a VT role (if it was not obvious already) which is why I believe this line of reasoning is valid.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby vodean on Wed Aug 29, 2012 12:28 pm

tbh, i find it much more likely that saf is scum than BG. I believe BG's claim, and think that saf is trying to get BG lynched, using th VT logic as an easy excuse.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby safariguy5 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 7:42 pm

vodean wrote:tbh, i find it much more likely that saf is scum than BG. I believe BG's claim, and think that saf is trying to get BG lynched, using th VT logic as an easy excuse.

Ok...and your reasoning is what exactly?

I can think of one reason why you may say that, but even if that were the case, it doesn't necessarily mean I'm scum.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby thechuck51 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 7:59 pm

Here is how i see things regarding BG and his VT claim. We have lost a tracker and a flavor cop so 2 investigative roles down. I'm guessing that since the show is full of cops that there are more investigative roles out there and since they haven't said anything they didn't catch scum last night. BG claimed VT and worse case scenario he is actually VT, best case scenario he is a SK or mafia or whatever the bad guys are in this game. So we can take the chance lynching a VT or we can flush out another power role and put them at risk for a NK. Now if we still had a watcher this may be ok, since we could find out who attacked the person but since we don't, it is not in our best interest.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby / on Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:47 pm

Sorry I've been silent, quite busy lately.
My thoughts, I think this should be non-vanilla most likely, I mean last game I was a double amputee and still not technically vanilla.
It is odd to counterclaim color, but I would get into a bit of meta to get to the reason.
1. does anyone know if strike usually gives fakeclaims?
if so, strike could have messed up the fakeclaim color.
2. Strike kind of screwed with the town last time (paranoid cop, investigation proof SK, track-proof SK, miller) can anyone think of a role BG's claimed character would SECRETLY have to make it non-vanilla? (miller, hated townie, bomb, etc?)
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby Epitaph1 on Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:53 am

/ wrote:Sorry I've been silent, quite busy lately.
My thoughts, I think this should be non-vanilla most likely, I mean last game I was a double amputee and still not technically vanilla.
It is odd to counterclaim color, but I would get into a bit of meta to get to the reason.
1. does anyone know if strike usually gives fakeclaims?
if so, strike could have messed up the fakeclaim color.
2. Strike kind of screwed with the town last time (paranoid cop, investigation proof SK, track-proof SK, miller) can anyone think of a role BG's claimed character would SECRETLY have to make it non-vanilla? (miller, hated townie, bomb, etc?)


1. I don't know if strike gives fakeclaims or not, as I've never played with him as mod.

2. The only role I've ever played with that had a secret attribute was a miller. I didn't know someone could be a bomb and not know it (although, I bet that's really hilarious to watch if you're the mod).

After considering saf's points that this could be NV [particularly the small number of people and 3 potential SKs* (thus presumably no mafia)], I think / might be onto something with the secret attribute. That would explain BG's reaction on D1 and why he believes he's vanilla despite the need to balance the town against 3 SKs.*

*This is working on the assumption that Dexter is a SK and not vig.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2 sign ups. 13/13. D1. A Warning

Postby strike wolf on Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:01 am

Vote Count

Chapcrap
Vodean
/
Chuck
Lsutigerjosh
iron butterfly
Bgthebrain (4)-safari, Chuck, LSUtiger, Edocsil
Edocsil
Safariguy (2)-Bgthebrain, vodean
Jonty
Epitaph

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline Monday at 9 PM EST
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby Iron Butterfly on Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:42 am

After reading all the arguments I Vote brain

At it simplest if he is VT its no loss. For me I never fully understood why he would need to claim when Jonty was at L2 and on his way to being lynched. He stated he did so because he thought he was red, which he claims was a mod mistake. Mistake or not it did not make sense to me.

Saf raises the issue of 3 killers in a VT game being an issue. If this were a VT game we would be like lambs to the slaughter as we need all the PRs we can get

It is my strong opinion we have a bus driver. The numbers don't add up for a VT
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby chapcrap on Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:50 am

vote saf

I just don't buy saf's line of reasoning. Yeah, there could potientially be 3 kills for one night only, but that's only once. However, that's not a big deal because of them killing each other too. I mean, at this point we could be looking at just one kill per night if one of those last night was the one shot being used. To me, why lynch someone that's already claimed anyway? Awful strategy from town. We lynch BG and all the info we get was whether or not he was lying. We don't get any more information without pressuring someone else. To me, that person needs to be saf.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby BGtheBrain on Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:52 am

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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby chapcrap on Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:11 am

BGtheBrain wrote:I still havent heard ANY discussion on whats going to go down when I flip town.

Exactly. It seems like there are a lot of people just looking for a quick lynch and trying to limit discussion. How about Iron Butterfly putting you at L-1 when the deadline isn't until Monday?!
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby Epitaph1 on Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:03 am

chapcrap wrote:
BGtheBrain wrote:I still havent heard ANY discussion on whats going to go down when I flip town.

Exactly. It seems like there are a lot of people just looking for a quick lynch and trying to limit discussion. How about Iron Butterfly putting you at L-1 when the deadline isn't until Monday?!


If BG flips town, I propose LSU be examined. I've mentioned a couple of times that he's been throwing out votes without much discussion or explanation. It strikes me that he is just looking for the shortest path to a lynch.

I could see saf being town and just working on the assumption that this is a NV game based on the setup or based on something he learned last night (he already stated that he's not vanilla, so I'm not giving anything away by pointing that out). We still don't know who was busdriven. I'm more suspicious of chuck and LSU, for jumping on the bandwagon with little discussion, than I am of saf; at least saf has adequately outlined his reasons for suspecting this is a NV game.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby Iron Butterfly on Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:08 am

unvote brain

I do not consider myself wishy washy as a voter. In this game so much is speculation on what people think "should" be. We talk of the probabilities of VTs verses what has been revealed. You know how many times I have lost 3 dice vs 1 in a row here at CC???

Im holding my vote for now.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby chapcrap on Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:10 am

Iron Butterfly wrote:unvote brain

I do not consider myself wishy washy as a voter. In this game so much is speculation on what people think "should" be. We talk of the probabilities of VTs verses what has been revealed. You know how many times I have lost 3 dice vs 1 in a row here at CC???

Im holding my vote for now.

Not sure what dice has to do with any of this... That doesn't change the fact that you put him at L-1 when there is a lot of discussion that needs to happen first.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby Iron Butterfly on Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:18 am

chapcrap wrote:
BGtheBrain wrote:I still havent heard ANY discussion on whats going to go down when I flip town.

Exactly. It seems like there are a lot of people just looking for a quick lynch and trying to limit discussion. How about Iron Butterfly putting you at L-1 when the deadline isn't until Monday?!


I just noticed this after I with drew my vote.

He is also a claimed VT so if killed...well hes a VT.

What has me is that the arguments for a non-VT game are sound but at the same time BG seems believable.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby Iron Butterfly on Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:22 am

chapcrap wrote:
Iron Butterfly wrote:unvote brain

I do not consider myself wishy washy as a voter. In this game so much is speculation on what people think "should" be. We talk of the probabilities of VTs verses what has been revealed. You know how many times I have lost 3 dice vs 1 in a row here at CC???

Im holding my vote for now.

Not sure what dice has to do with any of this... That doesn't change the fact that you put him at L-1 when there is a lot of discussion that needs to happen first.


We have been arguing Probobilities of a VT in this game with what has been revealed so far. I used the dice as an analogy. People SHOULD win eventually 10vs1 dice. I have lost going 10vs 1 as an attacker. The odds are I should win.

The same holds true for the VT being in game. While the probabilities show one should have been revealed by now that does not make it a garuntee.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby safariguy5 on Thu Aug 30, 2012 12:23 pm

Dexter may or may not be SKer. He could just as easily be a town overeager vig which is basically like an SKer except town aligned.

I'm looking at the numbers here.

Out of 13 people, 3 are dead. That means that 23% of the player pool is dead and none have been VT. In addition, jonty was a 1-shot BP Sker, which means that we have more killing roles this game too. More investigative roles, more killing roles, I don't see this being a VT game.

In addition, it makes no sense to tell a player he's VT and hide a bomb or miller role from him because it basically handicaps the player's ability to make a believable claim. If this was a VT game, then yes, I clearly could see some hidden roles as a VT claim would make sense. I don't think this is a VT game, so I discount that possibility.

As for what we're going to do IF BG flips town. I have no problem claiming. But in order for that to happen, BG needs to be telling the truth. That still remains to be seen, and quite frankly, talking about possibilities has absolutely no bearing on the current case because the outcome is uncertain at this point.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby / on Fri Aug 31, 2012 1:06 am

Well, I had a locked role and was a secret miller last game, so be aware that the mod may screw with us depending on the twists of season two.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby Iron Butterfly on Fri Aug 31, 2012 8:36 am

"As for what we're going to do IF BG flips town. I have no problem claiming. But in order for that to happen, BG needs to be telling the truth. That still remains to be seen, and quite frankly, talking about possibilities has absolutely no bearing on the current case because the outcome is uncertain at this point."

Really? Your case on BG is that he is lieing based on the idea that you do not believe this is a VT game. You use the past deaths to strengthen your claim. Possibilities/probabilities have everything to do with why you want to lynch BG.

Your last sentence is pretty funny as well." Possibilities have no bearing on the case because the out come is uncertain". What exactly does that mean?
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby edocsil on Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:42 am

Now here is another thought. Slightly unformed, but I will lob it out all the same.

I do not believe there are any VTs.

BG may be TOLD he is VT, and this would indicate that he could be a role that simply doesn't know what it is. Death millers, Judas/Salus and a few others. I am still all over the fence on this case, I just can't make a decision I am comfortable with.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby Epitaph1 on Fri Aug 31, 2012 10:23 am

edocsil wrote:Now here is another thought. Slightly unformed, but I will lob it out all the same.

I do not believe there are any VTs.

BG may be TOLD he is VT, and this would indicate that he could be a role that simply doesn't know what it is. Death millers, Judas/Salus and a few others. I am still all over the fence on this case, I just can't make a decision I am comfortable with.


Did you read the last page and a half? Apparently not. FOS for skimming.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby edocsil on Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:53 am

Missed /'s post. I have a hard time finding any desire to wade through rehashed arguments of VT probabilities. Besides you I don't think any one else responded at all, they just kept jerking it with the old arguments.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby safariguy5 on Fri Aug 31, 2012 12:10 pm

Iron Butterfly wrote:"As for what we're going to do IF BG flips town. I have no problem claiming. But in order for that to happen, BG needs to be telling the truth. That still remains to be seen, and quite frankly, talking about possibilities has absolutely no bearing on the current case because the outcome is uncertain at this point."

Really? Your case on BG is that he is lieing based on the idea that you do not believe this is a VT game. You use the past deaths to strengthen your claim. Possibilities/probabilities have everything to do with why you want to lynch BG.

Your last sentence is pretty funny as well." Possibilities have no bearing on the case because the out come is uncertain". What exactly does that mean?

I base my case on what evidence we have gathered through past lynches, nightkills, posts, etc. to determine a case I put forward.

BG is trying to use a possibility that he is town (which is speculation and not hard fact) to defend why he shouldn't be lynched.

If BG is lynched, and IF BG is VT, then I will have no problem claiming. But speculating on whether or not BG is town is not productive because BG is not bringing concrete evidence as to why he is VT. You cannot use future possibilities to dictate current defense.

I could just as easily say "So why aren't we discussing who we should pressure after BG flips scum?" But I won't because that relies too heavily on speculation which has no bearing on the current case.
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2. 10/13. Day 2: Firelit Dawn

Postby / on Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:25 pm

It doesn't look like we'll be making any more positive progress before deadline...
The whole thing is a bit WIFOM, but really, we can't expect much correlation in motives in a SK game.
Vote BG
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Re: Dexter Mafia S2 sign ups. 13/13. D1. A Warning

Postby strike wolf on Fri Aug 31, 2012 6:12 pm

strike wolf wrote:Vote Count

Chapcrap
Vodean
/
Chuck
Lsutigerjosh
iron butterfly
Bgthebrain (5)-safari, Chuck, LSUtiger, Edocsil, /
Edocsil
Safariguy (3)-Bgthebrain, vodean, chap
Jonty
Epitaph

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline Monday at 9 PM EST
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