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Cynther wrote:chessplaya wrote:alex_white101 wrote:well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!
he said a 50.4% chance to succeed
Well if he says the situation ended with 3 vs. 25, technically he didn't fail. He still has a possibility of winning the territory. It's all about believing =)
Grisle wrote:alex_white101 wrote:well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!
You should have never let your armies get that low.
mr. CD wrote:Dice don't even out, that's not how odds work. It all depends on the circumstances, if it's a spot that needs to be broken, you might want to go on a little longer, if it doesn't 20v25 might be the moment to stop.
ZeekLTK wrote:So, since rolls are similar to a coin flip (albeit more complex), you have to figure that if you are going to roll X times, the odds are extremely small that you are going to lose every single roll, and thus if you've already lost a handful of rolls, statistically you should start winning a few (that it will "even out"). To lose 11 times in a row (as the guy who went from 25 to 3 did) is not very likely at all.
Viceroy63 wrote:Actually when it come to the coin toss, I for one, can make the coin come out the same way every time or most of the time by controlling the circumstances or conditions of the toss. Catching the toss in mid-flight for example, at precisely the same interval each time and the same way each time helps. The starting position of the coin, whether it be heads up or down should also be the same each time. The pressure used on the coin by the thumb, exactly the same in each toss. This takes practice but can be achieved.
Viceroy634 wrote:And so if you have more than just 11 troops then you have the advantage in the defense.
ZeekLTK wrote:Viceroy63 wrote:Actually when it come to the coin toss, I for one, can make the coin come out the same way every time or most of the time by controlling the circumstances or conditions of the toss. Catching the toss in mid-flight for example, at precisely the same interval each time and the same way each time helps. The starting position of the coin, whether it be heads up or down should also be the same each time. The pressure used on the coin by the thumb, exactly the same in each toss. This takes practice but can be achieved.
Okay, but I was using the coin toss as an example of the dice on this site (which can't be influenced). If you are going to attack 11 times with 3v2 dice, it is not reasonable to expect to lose every single roll. Therefore, if you have lost 4-5 rolls in a row, it IS reasonable to expect to win a few of the next rolls, because odds of losing 3v2 every single time is not very high (especially the more times you roll). That was my point.
So, in the example we were using, the 25v3... if you've rolled enough to get down to say 17v3, why should you stop attacking? What are the odds that you will lose ANOTHER roll 0-2 when you've already lost 4 in a row? They are not very high, so you should keep rolling and expect to win soon. Such as the coin toss odds - if you've already lost 4 in a row, odds of losing another (5 in a row) is 3.13%, which means odds are 96.88% that you should win the next one. In the example about the 25v3, the odds of losing 22-0 (11 in a row) are 0.49% (if you assume each roll is 50/50, which they aren't, but for simplicity). Which means over 11 rolls, he had a 99.51% chance of winning at least ONE roll. Very unlucky for him, but it also means he did the right thing to keep attacking because he had such great odds of winning.
Kaskavel wrote:His logic is completely wrong.
"and thus if you've already lost a handful of rolls, statistically you should start winning a few (that it will "even out")."
Wrong
"Such as the coin toss odds - if you've already lost 4 in a row, odds of losing another (5 in a row) is 3.13%, which means odds are 96.88% that you should win the next one. "
This is more than being just wrong and shows a serious misunderstanding of maths, probabilities and gameplay. If you ve already lost 4 times in a row, chances you lose a fifth one is still 50%, not 3%
Viceroy63 wrote:Kaskavel wrote:His logic is completely wrong.
"and thus if you've already lost a handful of rolls, statistically you should start winning a few (that it will "even out")."
Wrong
"Such as the coin toss odds - if you've already lost 4 in a row, odds of losing another (5 in a row) is 3.13%, which means odds are 96.88% that you should win the next one. "
This is more than being just wrong and shows a serious misunderstanding of maths, probabilities and gameplay. If you ve already lost 4 times in a row, chances you lose a fifth one is still 50%, not 3%
OK; But if you start out 25 troops to 3 troops, What are the odds of losing 22 troops (11 consecutive roll loses in a row) to just 3 troops?
I really don't do much complex math but I can't believe that those are odds, what ever they may be, that occur too often?
Even though I agree it could happen, but why should you stop attacking after losing three rolls in a row?
I'll grant you that the over all situation should be considered and if you need the troops then you should stop attacking the 3 especially if you go below winning odds like when you get down to just 3 or 4 troops, but while you still outnumber the 3 troops 2 to 1 and it's just another attack for a card or a region, then why stop attacking just because you lost a hand full of consecutive rolls?
JBlombier wrote:Nicely put in poor English, my friend ^^
Viceroy63 wrote:I Understand now, and I agree...
"Nicely put in poor English, my friend ^^"
bonzifan wrote:The odds of getting heads and tails never changes, regardless of previous tosses.
If you have tossed 5 tails, you have already beaten odds of 1/32 (3.1%) To toss another tails would only halve your odds to 1.55%
Another way of looking at it is that, although when you started tossing you had a 3.1% chance of getting 5 tails. Having tossed them though, the chance that you did toss 5 tails is now 100%. Because it's in the past, we know the result 100%. Therefore, the next toss is still only 50/50.
Viceroy63 wrote:bonzifan wrote:The odds of getting heads and tails never changes, regardless of previous tosses.
If you have tossed 5 tails, you have already beaten odds of 1/32 (3.1%) To toss another tails would only halve your odds to 1.55%
Another way of looking at it is that, although when you started tossing you had a 3.1% chance of getting 5 tails. Having tossed them though, the chance that you did toss 5 tails is now 100%. Because it's in the past, we know the result 100%. Therefore, the next toss is still only 50/50.
In the test, 13 people were asked to flip a coin 300 times, trying to get as many heads as possible. All 13 participants got more heads than tails. Seven out of the thirteen had statistically significant margins of heads over tails (meaning almost certainly not a matter of chance). The highest was one individual had 68% of the coin flips land heads. In other words, a coin toss isn't particularly random.
http://www.techdirt.com/articles/200912 ... 7292.shtml
I know from personal eperience that I can make a coin come out ether heads or tails...
Most of the time.
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