What we actually need is a good analysis/simulation tool that will run all that for us...although that is why we have beta to some extent.
Also apart from the assualts and timing, there is also the die which are the biggest random variable.
tbh. there is no such issue as the bottom or top player.
Yeah, a game analysis tool would work well for this simple map that is so linear. But would probably be hard to code for a more complex map, let alone one with all the special features available in the Foundry. Perhaps the bots are a start of some AI that could be used for coding, but as anyone who played them knows, there's still a long way to go on that front. (Before the bots were released, I got to play the bots on St. Pats, which has a win condition, and the bots would lose almost every time because it couldn't figure that out.)
I understand your last two points, and meant to fully disclaim that in my posts. The dice are a bigger variable than skill in many, many game types. I would say dice being a bigger variable extends to all but very few maps and settings if you look at everything available on this site. (Note: bigger variable simply means larger impact on victory not absolutely decisive.)
But that doesn't mean you don't want the map to be perfectly balance IF both sides could get exactly even dice. On a map like this, I think you want to shoot for perfect balance.
One tool that could be used that would be simpler than programming AI to play the map out even on this map, would be to simply look at the results from beta testing. I'd say if you had a thousand games or so, you could look at games in which an officer played an officer, then divided them up on whether the top or bottom started first, then analyze the stats. It would be fairly easy statistical analysis, if the data were provided to someone who knew what they were doing.
Finally, I realize that there isn't a top or bottom player by design. I was using that as shorthand for the analysis that I was running. The important thing to take away from that was that EVEN if a player who starts on one side goes second and gets even dice with the other player, he's still at an advantage. You would want the player who starts first to have the advantage, since the counterpart to my findings is that if the player going second already has an advantage, imagine what it would be like if that player went first.
I think that you're well aware of all of this, but I just want to make sure that my main points don't get lost in the weeds of the other related discussions.