[CL7] Premier Division (1. LHDD - MVPs: Donche64, Samdemars)

[IcePack]

F12 League Rankings @ the bottom of the post!

[Dako]

Thanks IP.

[betiko]

I have pretty much FALL, LHDD and TOFU with 29/30 points before the last round. this is crazy close.

little question for the mods, i was updating my results spreadsheet and noticed that the FOED - OLE from round 9 both in home and away only have 7 games, is that normal? one finished 5-2 for foed so the last game is slightly redundant (or could be imoortant for OLE to stay in first division) and the other ended 4-3 in favour of OLE... but that isn't really 2 pts for victory?

[rockfist]

If you get the 4-0 vs Fallen you'll have 30/31, we'll have 30, and Fallen would have 29.

[IcePack]

Yeah, insanely close. I just went through everything. It all hinges on TOFU-LHDD match

[donche64]

If you get the 4-0 vs Fallen you'll have 30/31, we'll have 30, and Fallen would have 29.

I think it's more 29/30 than 30/31, depending on the 3rd Crusade result in our match against RET

[IcePack]

If you get the 4-0 vs Fallen you'll have 30/31, we'll have 30, and Fallen would have 29.

I think it's more 29/30 than 30/31, depending on the 3rd Crusade result in our match against RET

Correct. After 10 rounds I now have:
FALL 29
LHDD 29-30 (based off ret 3rd crusade)
TOFU 30-31 (based off getting 1 or 2 vs GON)

[rockfist]

I think that is wrong, I wish it were as you suggest.

I have it TOFU 30 (we'll get 2 vs GON - we can't score 31)
Fallen 29 (If they lose both to LHDD, which is looking more and more likely)
LHDD 30 or 31 depending on the game versus RET (but it doesn't matter except for a potential tiebreaker with Fallen)

LHDD is going to beat us on GD so with them at either 30 or 31 heading into our matches we need to win 3-1 to beat LHDD. A 4-0 victory would (however unlikely) win the league outright for us regardless of what happens in the OLE-Fallen games. A 3-1 victory by us and a 4-0 victory by Fallen would put it to GD. I predict we will head into the last week with a six goal lead in GD.

If LHDD is at 31 headed into the last week a 2-2 split will win the league for them since they will have the GD lead against Fallen.

If LHDD is at 30 headed into the last week they need to win 3-1 against us to guarantee at least a tie against Fallen and thus a win.

LHDD is in the driver's seat, but Fallen really needs to win their matches and hope to thread the needle on this. Fallen needs a 2-2 score in the LHDD-TOFU matches or at worst a TOFU 3-1 win and to run up a big score against OLE, while hoping the 3-1 score is the result of a 5-3 victory by TOFU in one of the matches...I think 6-2 would make it super hard and (although it won't likely happen) a 7-1 and 4-4 score would make it all but impossible for Fallen. Their best bet, by far is the 2-2 score.

[Momo33]

Honestly, I don't know how you see LHDD with 31 points. I have us at 29 (with the 4-0 vs FALL) and 30 if we win 3rd Crusade.

So going to the final round we will have (TOFU and FALL score are based on your eval, I didn't take a look at it in detail)
TOFU 30
LHDD 29 or 30
FALL 29

[rockfist]

Honestly, I don't know how you see LHDD with 31 points. I have us at 29 (with the 4-0 vs FALL) and 30 if we win 3rd Crusade.

So going to the final round we will have (TOFU and FALL score are based on your eval, I didn't take a look at it in detail)
TOFU 30
LHDD 29 or 30
FALL 29

I have miscounted yours, you are correct either 29 or 30. That helps Fallen more than it helps us though.

[IcePack]

Honestly, I don't know how you see LHDD with 31 points. I have us at 29 (with the 4-0 vs FALL) and 30 if we win 3rd Crusade.

So going to the final round we will have (TOFU and FALL score are based on your eval, I didn't take a look at it in detail)
TOFU 30
LHDD 29 or 30
FALL 29

I have miscounted yours, you are correct either 29 or 30. That helps Fallen more than it helps us though.

I think you miscalc'd your score as well. I have TOFU @ 31 if you win both GON.
Checked it multiple times.

But yeah otherwise the above seems pretty much it. We didn't do ourselves any favors not getting points vs S&M home when we needed it, and the LHDD games might cost us the win.

[betiko]

Honestly, I don't know how you see LHDD with 31 points. I have us at 29 (with the 4-0 vs FALL) and 30 if we win 3rd Crusade.

So going to the final round we will have (TOFU and FALL score are based on your eval, I didn't take a look at it in detail)
TOFU 30
LHDD 29 or 30
FALL 29

I have miscounted yours, you are correct either 29 or 30. That helps Fallen more than it helps us though.

I think you miscalc'd your score as well. I have TOFU @ 31 if you win both GON.
Checked it multiple times.

But yeah otherwise the above seems pretty much it. We didn't do ourselves any favors not getting points vs S&M home when we needed it, and the LHDD games might cost us the win.

Tell me about it... After we lose our home games against GON going straight to a second division relegation.

Tofu at 31 with both gon wins??? Are you sure? I need to recheck but i saw them at 30... If they are indeed at 31 that becomes reaaaaally uphill!

If tofu wins they surely can thank us for making fallen lose so many points... Even though games can still switch sides again

[rockfist]

I'll tell you what, Betiko, your favorite map is WWI Galipoli. As a thank you we'll send a game on that map in CC6 as one of our home games. Deal?

[IcePack]

Ok everyone else is right TOFU is at 30 w both GON wins....I'm a dumbass lol

[betiko]

I'll tell you what, Betiko, your favorite map is WWI Galipoli. As a thank you we'll send a game on that map in CC6 as one of our home games. Deal?

lol, not a big fan of your quads trench setting though! and we aren't looking too good against OSA to tell the truth...

so my dream scenario would be a 3-1 for fallen against OLE, see us win that game against RET, confirm the 4-0 against FALL, and go 2-2 against TOFU.. triple tie and we win by GD!!!!

[rockfist]

I think you'll get 4-0 against Fallen.

Fallen is going to 4-0 OLE, nothing we can do about that.

You'll need that last RET point and a 3-1 against us. Thats going to take some work.

[betiko]

I think you'll get 4-0 against Fallen.

Fallen is going to 4-0 OLE, nothing we can do about that.

You'll need that last RET point and a 3-1 against us. Thats going to take some work.

yeah that's what i figured after taking a look at those OLE games, bummer.
We could be in a scenario where it would all come down to our TOFU-LHDD faceoff... who wins wins the league, and if we tie FALLEN wins the league...

[rockfist]

We have a saying in the US that a tie is like kissing your sister. In that case it would be more like kissing your sister when she has a cold sore.

[Arama86n]

I find that an elegant finale to be honest.
A very attractive proposition actually. Whoever wins; wins, and if neither of us are capable, by all means, let the third chap have it
Let it be so.

[betiko]

i'm really looking forward to seeing all games pre-round 11 finished. a lot of "ifs" here, I want to see clearly!!!!

[rockfist]

Good luck with that we have a USA2.1 trench and a Hive game in prior rounds.

[betiko]

Good luck with that we have a USA2.1 trench and a Hive game in prior rounds.

not really caring about games that are not worth any points anymore! I'm talking about games that give the final 4-4 or 5+!

Fallen, you could've had the good taste to lose just one point against OLE seriously...

[IcePack]

What fun would that be? We want to encourage you & TOFU to be your best.
But 2-2 sounds good to us

[hopalong]

We have a saying in the US that a tie is like kissing your sister.

i always wanted a sister, and this quote confirms it - everybody wins since no one loses.