PKMN Beach Mafia: Cult Wins

[DoomYoshi]

I edited the last vote count as per the fix that BuJaber suggested. There hasn't been much activity. Everyone try to post at least once this weekend. I have a couple replacements if anyone is not able to play.

[new guy1]

Will play as a replacement Sorry for the mid-day post everyone else!

[BuJaber]

Beyond that and I know I don't have much to go on here but my top scum pick right now would be Mandy. The reason. Mandy is a crazy insane player who will often pull out cases out of practically nothing. His case on Rishaed and by relation myself felt like one of these cases. Now Mandy is aware of his reputation for this and he's skilled enough as mafia to know how to fake it. What does seem off to me is how easily he let it go and brushed it off as day 1 baseless speculation.

He let it go easily because he was wrong. He made a mistake. Now if he faked that whole thing that's a different story but that seems very unlikely to me. As you can see a few posts back I did however state that his original post may have been a scum tell because his whole case was based on syntax; which I noticed and ignored because I was a little confused and rish seemed confused also. Mandy didn't ignore it and made a case against 2 people based on it. We shouldn't jump to a conclusion yet though based on this alone because his misunderstanding could have happened whether he's town or scum.

Anyway I'm curious what y'all think.. Assuming no strong case comes up/ no bandwagon, do you think it helps town to vote against 2 or even 3 players equally and have a random lynch between them? Seems like it's the same sort of result one person gets lynched D1 (notorious for weak cases) but with more players potentially getting lynched the chance of a mislynch decreases.

[dakky21]

Anyway I'm curious what y'all think.. Assuming no strong case comes up/ no bandwagon, do you think it helps town to vote against 2 or even 3 players equally and have a random lynch between them? Seems like it's the same sort of result one person gets lynched D1 (notorious for weak cases) but with more players potentially getting lynched the chance of a mislynch decreases.

People can look at what you wrote in two ways:
First - you'd like to split votes and go for a random lynch, meaning you don't care who will get lynched
Second - even with no strong cases and no bandwagons D1, splitting the votes is worst for town as the random lynch won't reveal anything (ie. who bandwagoned, who hammered etc.)

In both cases, you don't seem to care who will get lynched and that's another meta. My vote stays on you mate.

[dakky21]

And speaking of BuJaber, I just came to the conclusion that he lied about being Graveler.
If DoomYoshi was following the "Pokemon Go" theme, and I believe he did, Graveler doesn't have a self-destruct special power.
BuJaber obviously investigated the said Pokemon on himself and found on the other sites he may self-destruct while that is not the case in Pokemon Go.

http://www.pokemon.com/us/pokedex/graveler

Just +1 to my case.

[Marashu]

Anyway I'm curious what y'all think.. Assuming no strong case comes up/ no bandwagon, do you think it helps town to vote against 2 or even 3 players equally and have a random lynch between them? Seems like it's the same sort of result one person gets lynched D1 (notorious for weak cases) but with more players potentially getting lynched the chance of a mislynch decreases.

People can look at what you wrote in two ways:
First - you'd like to split votes and go for a random lynch, meaning you don't care who will get lynched
Second - even with no strong cases and no bandwagons D1, splitting the votes is worst for town as the random lynch won't reveal anything (ie. who bandwagoned, who hammered etc.)

In both cases, you don't seem to care who will get lynched and that's another meta. My vote stays on you mate.

I see I'm not the only one who had flags raised with that statement. Town want to hit scum, scum doesn't care who gets hit as long as it isn't them. Also, I think this might be a game worth keeping an eye on vote history for, because of the secondary win conditions. (Also, I don't know what types of personal wincons scum might have, but I'm not sure if they can trust each other, if it means that one can get a personal win at the cost of bussing their partners. Something to consider.) Either way,
Vote BuJ.

Beyond that and I know I don't have much to go on here but my top scum pick right now would be Mandy. The reason. Mandy is a crazy insane player who will often pull out cases out of practically nothing. His case on Rishaed and by relation myself felt like one of these cases. Now Mandy is aware of his reputation for this and he's skilled enough as mafia to know how to fake it. What does seem off to me is how easily he let it go and brushed it off as day 1 baseless speculation.

I think this is my first game with Mandy, so I didn't know he had much of a reputation. I thought him pulling back seemed natural once the mistake became clear. If he is experienced in building cases, though, it is strange that he didn't follow up with one after easing pressure off strike/rish. I will say that I didn't give it two thoughts until I read your comment, though.

FP'd by dakky
I disagree with your Pokemon Go theory, for reasons.

[dakky21]

Hi all. I will host a Pokemon Go themed game. Fakeclaims will not be provided. Roles will be non-vanilla and some may be extremely non-standard. I will try to balance it, but I can make no promises

I didn't choose my pokemon. I was going to, but then I decided the surprise is more fun. Clearly I didn't get magikarp.. so I can't complain lol.
Actually I got Graveler who I kinda like. I may or may not self-destruct

FP'd by dakky
I disagree with your Pokemon Go theory, for reasons.

What reasons? I gave you a link to a Graveler, and he doesn't have a self destruct ability. In fact, if you didn't know, Pokemons can't die. They can only faint. So even if he had that power, he would faint and no-one would faint with him. It's an exit strategy/power which I don't find possible in this case.

[dakky21]

EBWOP: I'm actually really starting to thing BuJaber searched for self-destructing Pokemons and then fake claimed one. With more than 700 of them (150 in a PoGo world) you have a pretty good chance to hit a good fake claim without being countered. Who would want to kill a self-destruct one and faint with him? No one. Good fake claim. Makes him safe so no one attacks him. I don't buy it.

[Army of GOD]

I dont think the case on BuJaber holds much water. he might've known that Graveler had a self-destruct ability and didn't speak within the confines of the Pokemon Go flavor

honestly, there isn't much of anything on anyone right now so I might as well just vote madmitch

[dakky21]

I dont think the case on BuJaber holds much water. he might've known that Graveler had a self-destruct ability and didn't speak within the confines of the Pokemon Go flavor

honestly, there isn't much of anything on anyone right now so I might as well just vote madmitch

In each mafia game, I start from myself. The questions I ask myself are: Why would I even mention a self destruct power if I had it? Shouldn't it be easier if I didn't talked about it and lured people to my lynch if that was my winning condition?

The only possible reason is to back off possible attacks on myself by claiming such a role. So honestly, if BuJaber turns out scum, you'd be the next one I'd look for, as you're trying to split the votes already which was originally his idea.

[Marashu]

What reasons? I gave you a link to a Graveler, and he doesn't have a self destruct ability. In fact, if you didn't know, Pokemons can't die. They can only faint. So even if he had that power, he would faint and no-one would faint with him. It's an exit strategy/power which I don't find possible in this case.

Simply put, my character doesn't match with the Pokemon Go theory. It's possible BuJ googled Graveler. Goodness, it's possible that he could be scum and not need to lie about his character, because there are so many and they don't indicate alignment. Not sure what he was trying to claim with the self-destruct statement. There are other abilities I would expect Graveler to have.

I dont think the case on BuJaber holds much water. he might've known that Graveler had a self-destruct ability and didn't speak within the confines of the Pokemon Go flavor

honestly, there isn't much of anything on anyone right now so I might as well just vote madmitch

The case on BuJ isn't just about the character claim. That was just an extra that dakky added to his case. What are your thoughts on BuJ saying we should have a few potential candidates and let the lynch be determined randomly?

fp'd by dakky
The only alternative I could think of is if his self-destruct is some sort of kamikaze vigilante or something, which seems a bit ridiculous. I agree, though, that if he had something like that, he would probably be trying to use it strategically instead of drawing attention to it.

[BuJaber]

Okay since I think both dakky and marashu are town let me defend right now before they make a mistake. Also while it would be nice to see who bandwagons.. I don't feel like sacrificing myself when it's this early.

I AM graveller. The self-destruct thing was a joke based on what I remember from the original games. It was my first post after all. I am very interested in people's top choices for multiple reasons. Mainly because information is power.

The split-vote thing. Sorry...My fault for using math as logic. People hate math, should have known it would bite me in the ass. I genuinely think it's a great idea for town IF there are no good cases out there. But If someone come up with a decent case we discuss that and move forward. Thank you dakky for taking that initiative. Now stop wearing your blinders and look at everyone else.
Thanks for explaining the benefit of choosing just one person though instead of just shooting down my idea without reasoning. I see your point about bandwagon information. But you're focusing on trying to get the most information after the lynch. My idea tries to decrease the chance of a mislynch, so that we have a better shot of actually lynching scum day 1. In fact, if we have 1 vote on every person that would be the best situation because statistically it gives us the best shot of shooting scum. (AGAIN JUST TO CLARIFY THIS ONLY APPLIES IF THERE IS A LOT OF HESITATION AND NO STRONG CASES OUT THERE BECAUSE IT ASSUMES THAT EVERYONE HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF FLIPPING SCUM/FLIPPING TOWN).

If there are actual mathematicians out there that want to correct me please do so. I only know basic statistics.

[strike wolf]

The issue doesn't come from the statistics of lynching scum day 1 but from long term viability. Arbitrary decisions are easier for scum to get behind. They involve less player analysis which is always under scrutiny in mafia and less justification for going through with it. Furthermore, splitting the Lynch also makes it easier for mafia to split their votes. Finally it is just unrealistic. Any player who was given the short straw of being one of those as possible Lynch targets could potentially switch their vote at the last minute to force a majority on another player and it would be hard to blame them in that situation.

I can also confirm based on my pokemon not being among the original 151, that this game is not strictly based on Pokémon Go.

Honestly the chances of you being graveler having significance seem pretty low. I just find you claiming out of the blue careless and unnecessary. I have only one game with you but you did not strike me as careless. Your major mistakes were because you were trying to fulfill your win condition and only one time was the move not thought out. so yeah. I can get behind Dakky's reasoning.

[BuJaber]

The issue doesn't come from the statistics of lynching scum day 1 but from long term viability. Arbitrary decisions are easier for scum to get behind. They involve less player analysis which is always under scrutiny in mafia and less justification for going through with it. Furthermore, splitting the Lynch also makes it easier for mafia to split their votes. Finally it is just unrealistic. Any player who was given the short straw of being one of those as possible Lynch targets could potentially switch their vote at the last minute to force a majority on another player and it would be hard to blame them in that situation.

Fair enough. But just because I was wrong or that my scenario would not be ideal doesn't mean that I'm scum. Dakky felt I'm scum from the beginning so it's easier for him to find more evidence to support that.
I explained my reasoning in full so everyone can see that I didn't think everything through, which is exactly why I posted it as a question to see someone else's perspective on it or even tell me I'm wrong so I can move on to a different idea, that still helps me learn more than if I didn't share my thoughts and just played every mafia game the "typical" way.

[HotShot53]

While I initially read BuJaber's post in a scummy light, and was about to vote him, his defense makes sense. And town is usually more likely than scum to claim a character out of the blue. So for now I think BuJaber is more likely town than scum.

[madmitch]

I MENTIONED Graveler exploding in my first post ,but I did not know if he was strong enough to do it.there is a graveler with a big explosion ability, he is the exdragon graveler so BujBER could be telling the truth,and I also can see where he was going with the vote thing because right now we got votes all over and if this keeps up you might as well flip a coin and that is really no good for town. as for I.B. remarks you are right I am not new to this game but I am new to pokemon and have to do a lot researching on this game. My first post was just testing the waters and throwing ideas around ,I did not thihk it was any thing special , it sure in the hell made more sense then M andy's posts on strike and rishaed . vote mandy

[gregwolf121]

Itll be a long time until I give up this avie:

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... &start=325

first off i just wanted to say that, that game was the funniest i have ever read.
secondly were you using this comment to softclaim another self destruct like ability? (meaning you were the nuke in that game and have a similar role in this one)?

third, i didn't like what bujaber said about splitting the vote but i also think bujaber explained his reasons for saying that well so i wont vote him for now,

[william18]

Okay since I think both dakky and marashu are town let me defend right now before they make a mistake. Also while it would be nice to see who bandwagons.. I don't feel like sacrificing myself when it's this early.

I AM graveller. The self-destruct thing was a joke based on what I remember from the original games. It was my first post after all. I am very interested in people's top choices for multiple reasons. Mainly because information is power.

The split-vote thing. Sorry...My fault for using math as logic. People hate math, should have known it would bite me in the ass. I genuinely think it's a great idea for town IF there are no good cases out there. But If someone come up with a decent case we discuss that and move forward. Thank you dakky for taking that initiative. Now stop wearing your blinders and look at everyone else.
Thanks for explaining the benefit of choosing just one person though instead of just shooting down my idea without reasoning. I see your point about bandwagon information. But you're focusing on trying to get the most information after the lynch. My idea tries to decrease the chance of a mislynch, so that we have a better shot of actually lynching scum day 1. In fact, if we have 1 vote on every person that would be the best situation because statistically it gives us the best shot of shooting scum. (AGAIN JUST TO CLARIFY THIS ONLY APPLIES IF THERE IS A LOT OF HESITATION AND NO STRONG CASES OUT THERE BECAUSE IT ASSUMES THAT EVERYONE HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF FLIPPING SCUM/FLIPPING TOWN).

If there are actual mathematicians out there that want to correct me please do so. I only know basic statistics.

We won't have a better chance to lynch scum if it was random, as opposed to choosing. Since we have no other info, it's a 1/14 chance either time, since both situations are essentially random. The random lynch would only be beneficial for town if a mafia member has already built rapport on day 1, thereby reducing his probability of being actively lynched. The active lynch has the advantage of players being able to lynch based on inductive reasoning from small tells during discussion. I think its more likely for us to find small tells that may be valid than to have a mafia member among us who already has gathered trust from a portion of the town.

On another note, although I might be accused for picking on a so called 'easy target' I am actually starting to be suspicious of madmitch and how that whole situation with IB developed. Mitch made a whole production out of his post, maybe trying to signal the carefree air of an innocence, with a willingness to freely snowball ideas? After IB started to put the heat on him, he made only one response, then stayed quiet for a bit. This seems like he's just trying to stay quiet and wait it out after seeing people only noting the post as suspicious as opposed to actually placing a vote. If he was really trying to signal to everybody that he is putting in the effort as an honest townie, why shut up at the first sign of scrutiny? Doesn't make sense if you have nothing to hide.

Also is it a bit suspiscious that although Mandy picks apart rishead for confusing two posters, he makes no mention of mitch's post at all? And how convenient that mitch votes for mandy, on the premise that his argument vs rishaed was nonesence, which has already been concluded to be a simple misunderstanding on both parties (aka safely distancing himself from mandy without putting mandy at risk by posing a valid argument).

[DoomYoshi]

Vote Count

Dakky21 (1) - TimWoodbury
Army of GOD (1) - rishaed
BuJaber (2) - dakky21, Marashu
william18 (1) - Hotshot53
madmitch (3) - william18, Iron Butterfly, Army of GOD
mandalorian2298 (2) - strike wolf, madmitch
strike wolf (2) - gregwolf121, aage

Deadline: August 10th

If day ended now, madmitch would be lynched.

[dakky21]

You missed mitch's vote on Mandy this time as well. It's just 2-3 posts up.

[rishaed]

While I am unsure about how much BuJab is telling us, he is rather forthcoming with information. Hes given a lot of information out so far which is good. Also I've only played up to 4th gen so i have no clue on who is in pokemon go or not. I don't have the phone for it so i cant say. However, I'll put BuJab out as town for now. Hes given out so much information D1 that it would be really risky if he was called out on any of it. Now then, on to the next issue in my mind. We need to move on IMO. We have a partial claim from BuJab, and i'm inclined to trust him at this point, but on the other hand time is very valuable D1 (and every day thereafter), so I propose we move on to somebody else.

Also I'm unsure of completely how the secondary WC's work, but I did ask the mod and he said that both primary and secondary count as a "win." I have a feeling there might be some secondary WCs that pose a slight conflict of interest.

[TimWoodbury]

as odd as it is for BU to have came right out and say hes gravler i cant imagine its something scum would do so im currently giving him a town red, mitch hes mitch and a wildcard almsot every game neutral with him still.people have a odd feeling about mandy ive never played in any games with mandy so im gonna go ahead and follow vote mandy this is because of the saying walks like a duck must be a duck

[dakky21]

as odd as it is for BU to have came right out and say hes gravler i cant imagine its something scum would do so im currently giving him a town red, mitch hes mitch and a wildcard almsot every game neutral with him still.people have a odd feeling about mandy ive never played in any games with mandy so im gonna go ahead and follow vote mandy this is because of the saying walks like a duck must be a duck

So you're voting Mandy because "people have an odd feeling about him" ? Isn't that a classic example of a blatant bandwagon?

[TimWoodbury]

as odd as it is for BU to have came right out and say hes gravler i cant imagine its something scum would do so im currently giving him a town red, mitch hes mitch and a wildcard almsot every game neutral with him still.people have a odd feeling about mandy ive never played in any games with mandy so im gonna go ahead and follow vote mandy this is because of the saying walks like a duck must be a duck

So you're voting Mandy because "people have an odd feeling about him" ? Isn't that a classic example of a blatant bandwagon?

relly i woulda never figured that out why thnk ou for pointing it out mr duck

[Marashu]

First, just want to say that I won't be able to post tomorrow.

I'm still seriously convinced that BuJ is scum. People are saying he had a good defense, but I don't feel like it was just that strong - to me it feels like he's trying to rationalize after being caught. Also, he hasn't really been offering much in the way of reads, for someone who wants people to post their top two votes. He defended mandy's mistake and wanted people to not look too deeply into it:

He let it go easily because he was wrong. He made a mistake. Now if he faked that whole thing that's a different story but that seems very unlikely to me. As you can see a few posts back I did however state that his original post may have been a scum tell because his whole case was based on syntax; which I noticed and ignored because I was a little confused and rish seemed confused also. Mandy didn't ignore it and made a case against 2 people based on it. We shouldn't jump to a conclusion yet though based on this alone because his misunderstanding could have happened whether he's town or scum.

Sure, this looks moderate, but mandy was one of his top scumpicks (apparently dakky was his #2, and he's townreading dakky right now), so it strikes me as odd that he doesn't want to apply pressure to someone he's leaning scum on. Could be scumbuddies, I'm not sure yet. I'm also not terribly fond of how mandy's wagon has suddenly started picking up steam. Anyway, BuJ is trying to play it safe this game, in my opinion, and I'm not liking it.

Maybe I'm tunneling on BuJ. I can look things over again on Tuesday, assuming there's been no lynch by then, but right now I'm keeping my vote where it is.