DAY 1 Viva Loose Vegas - Mafia Game

[SoN!c]

This is what my AI bot says:

What you're solving for  Calculating the odds of guessing 5 specific people out of a group of 12. 
What's given in the problem  Total number of people in the room: 12 Number of people to guess: 5 The correct guesses are out of the total number of people.  How to solve  Calculate the total number of possible outcomes and then calculate the number of favorable outcomes. The odds are then calculated by dividing the number of favorable outcomes by the number of unfavorable outcomes.  . # Step by step solution  1. Step 1 Calculate the total number of possible outcomes when choosing 5 people out of 12. This is a combination problem (order doesn't matter), so use the combination formula: \({12 \choose 5}=\frac{12!}{5!(12-5)!}\) \({12 \choose 5}=\frac{12!}{5!7!}=\frac{12\times 11\times 10\times 9\times 8}{5\times 4\times 3\times 2\times 1}=792\) 2. Step 2 Calculate the number of favorable outcomes (guessing all 5 people correctly). There is only one way to guess all 5 people correctly. 3. Step 3 Calculate the odds of guessing all 5 people correctly. Odds = (favorable outcomes) / (unfavorable outcomes) Odds = 1 / (total outcomes - 1) Odds = 1 / (792 - 1) Odds = 1 / 791 

Solution  The odds of guessing all 5 people correctly are 1 to 791.

[Ragian]

Just managed to log in now. I've also been missing turns. Has anyone else had issues with the page?

Anyway, reading now.

[SoN!c]

Just managed to log in now. I've also been missing turns. Has anyone else had issues with the page?

Anyway, reading now.

No not at all but some are - it's mentioned by a few in GC.

About the 1 to 791 odds: So if we all 13 post a different combination we have 1.64% to guess it correctly today...(assuming nobody knows the names of the other players at the poker table).

And it will take 60,84 game days to cycle all combo's (assuming everybody posts everyday and a different combo too - good luck remembering the 791 combo's).

[Ragian]

Hi, at a festival and also just in general abroad.

Fortress fest Rag, you should attend it one day. Great lineup.

I have received my role (for now)

What? Where? When? Now? Colour me intrigued!

[Ragian]

Ragian didnt respond to my festival comment

vote Ragian

You're quick to break my heart. I thought we had something going on here

[Charle]

A little game with goody bag to be won;
Any player who in bold red can guess the names of 5 (other than themselves) of the 6 players at the poker table wins the goody bag.

You only have to guess 5 of the 6.

Big FoS on those who are trying to look benighted (wearing too powerful sunglassses at the poker table so they can't see shit anymore)

LOL, thanks Sonic. Sorry but I don't have much time at the moment, was just scanning, going a bit rough in RL at work. Hopefully will have a bit more time later this week to read through all the posts.

Yes, that's you Charle!

[Charle]

That is funny, the post deleted what I wrote?

Anyway, basically i do not have time at the moment, a bit caught up in RL, but thanks for explaining Sonic, I was just scanning

[*Pixar*]

What do we think is in the goodie bag Maybe pictures of Ragian with only socks on?

[kongming3]

It is Now Day 1

A little game with goody bag to be won;
Any player who in bold red can guess the names of 5 (other than themselves) of the 6 players at the poker table wins the goody bag.
One guess per player per day until the goodies have been won.

Mod question. All that is required to win the goody bag is to make a guess with 5 out of 6 of the players at the poker table? Do you need to be sitting at the table (and be that 6th person) or is it up for grabs for anyone who can figure out 5 players who aren't themselves?

[SoN!c]

It is Now Day 1

A little game with goody bag to be won;
Any player who in bold red can guess the names of 5 (other than themselves) of the 6 players at the poker table wins the goody bag.
One guess per player per day until the goodies have been won.

Mod question. All that is required to win the goody bag is to make a guess with 5 out of 6 of the players at the poker table? Do you need to be sitting at the table (and be that 6th person) or is it up for grabs for anyone who can figure out 5 players who aren't themselves?

Yes, guess 5 out of 6 and it's up for grabs for anyone.. And mod posted before that nobody knows the identity of the other players at the poker room..

Loose will confirm.

But "up for grabs" is to put it mildly.. Calculating the odds of guessing 5 specific people out of a group of 12 (you do not need to include yourself) is 1 / 791 or 0.13%..

The next question at hand is: is scum at the poker room? If so, how are they not gonna know after N1?

[Extreme Ways]

It is Now Day 1

A little game with goody bag to be won;
Any player who in bold red can guess the names of 5 (other than themselves) of the 6 players at the poker table wins the goody bag.
One guess per player per day until the goodies have been won.

Mod question. All that is required to win the goody bag is to make a guess with 5 out of 6 of the players at the poker table? Do you need to be sitting at the table (and be that 6th person) or is it up for grabs for anyone who can figure out 5 players who aren't themselves?

Yes, guess 5 out of 6 and it's up for grabs for anyone.. And mod posted before that nobody knows the identity of the other players at the poker room..

Loose will confirm.

But "up for grabs" is to put it mildly.. Calculating the odds of guessing 5 specific people out of a group of 12 (you do not need to include yourself) is 1 / 791 or 0.13%..

The next question at hand is: is scum at the poker room? If so, how are they not gonna know after N1?

It's not 5 out of 12 though. It's 5 out of 6 out of 12 if you are not at the table. And people can share information with others, though it's impossible to share so privately.

[Extreme Ways]

Hi, at a festival and also just in general abroad.

Fortress fest Rag, you should attend it one day. Great lineup.

I have received my role (for now)

What? Where? When? Now? Colour me intrigued!

Scarborough. Agalloch was headlining, but the lineup was stacked. Forteresse absolutely killed it, too.

[SoN!c]

It's not 5 out of 12 though. It's 5 out of 6 out of 12 if you are not at the table. And people can share information with others, though it's impossible to share so privately.

How do you know that unless your scum? Hmmm? And it seems you are very certain on the matter too like 100% knowing it...


Vote Extreme Ways

[Extreme Ways]

It's not 5 out of 12 though. It's 5 out of 6 out of 12 if you are not at the table. And people can share information with others, though it's impossible to share so privately.

How do you know that unless your scum? Hmmm? And it seems you are very certain on the matter too like 100% knowing it...


Vote Extreme Ways

Well, I am not on the table.

Now it's public. I dont know how I could share that privately, do you?

[SoN!c]

Scum in nightchat was mentioned before but you are certain they cannot..

[Extreme Ways]

Scum in nightchat was mentioned before but you are certain they cannot..

Well obviously I reason from my point of view, in which I do not have that capability.

Why do you focus on that part of the message so much? Why is it "scummy" to you?

[Loose Canon]

Kong the goodie bag is up for grabs for anyone at poker table or not who can guess 5 players at the table - but they cannot guess themselves

Vote Count with 7 needed for lynch

Ragian 1 - Extreme
Traf 1 - Devante
Extreme 1 - Son!c


AI Bot has been barred from this resort - caught red handed card counting

[SoN!c]

Scum in nightchat was mentioned before but you are certain they cannot..

Well obviously I reason from my point of view, in which I do not have that capability.

Why do you focus on that part of the message so much? Why is it "scummy" to you?

Your smart enough to know why it sounds scummy on context so this question answer makes it even scummier.


Remind me to use this sentence when i get caught for drunk driving by the police "Well officer, obviously I reason from my point of view, in which I do not have that drunk capability."

[strike wolf]

Alright, based on recent statements, I think EW is more likely to be at the table and lying and Son!c not on the table and fishing for info that will let him know who is.

[SoN!c]

Alright, based on recent statements, I think EW is more likely to be at the table and lying and Son!c not on the table and fishing for info that will let him know who is.

100%!

[Devante]

At the table:

1. Son!c
2. 3. Extreme Ways
3. 5. TrafalgarLaw01
4. 7. kongming3
5. 9. Maxleod
6. 11. jfm10

[Extreme Ways]

Scum in nightchat was mentioned before but you are certain they cannot..

Well obviously I reason from my point of view, in which I do not have that capability.

Why do you focus on that part of the message so much? Why is it "scummy" to you?

Your smart enough to know why it sounds scummy on context so this question answer makes it even scummier.


Remind me to use this sentence when i get caught for drunk driving by the police "Well officer, obviously I reason from my point of view, in which I do not have that drunk capability."

One thing I always dislike about these games is how people assume I know everything and will magically come up with good posts and good answers.

In the game we were scum in together, you saw me play and that multiple people saw me as potential scum. I'm no god, I'm just EW.

But, do I have it right in that the conclusion is that you think it's scummy for me specifically, because I should be above such mistakes?

Then why didnt you state the other obvious in that I could lie in the public thread, too?

[Extreme Ways]

PS: I have stated before and I will say again that it is okay for town to lie, but it needs to be with a good reason.

[SoN!c]

PS: I have stated before and I will say again that it is okay for town to lie, but it needs to be with a good reason.

Im probing and searching. We both know you lied for some part at least. And yes it could be a town lie. But It could be a scum lie too.Anyways Your at the table for sure if not on it.

Tbh my top 2 at the moment is Devante and Traf. A day 1 vote behind your name means nothing. You know that very well so im a bit surprised and intrigued.


Why Traf?

It's always the silent ones (Traf especially at this stage) and why Devante? : because vegas odds and a hunch.

[jfm10]

Strike , Traf , Extreme , Kong and Devante at the table is my guess.