Blackpool Manor Dinner: Poached Haddock (D2)

[SoN!c]

(strategy aside) I am weirdly flattered that Sonic would think I'm funny enough to come up with the horse holding a trophy before he would think I'm dumb enough to construct a sentence poorly. (◕‿◕✿)

[Loose Canon]

Deadline is not this friday but like predicted the next.. nevertheless town is in a dire spot. With 3 circle members alive and just 10 in total alive + that includes one voteless townie (charle) town will need all 6 town votes to win..

Strange not one townie did the math so a town divided will need to come together...

A mislynch D2 = CIRCLE WINS!

Wait (I've just woken up in the middle of the night.)

Sonic is counting Charle in the total players left to say Town needs 6 votes to achieve lynch.
So Charle actually counts against us now because he raises the bar for us to achieve a lynch!

I'm unvoting Devante

This looks like it COULD be a run for a win by dark Annie, and she's taunting me.

[Loose Canon]

@ Loose

So is this aclaim of archivist Annie, and that you got a guilty result on Devante?

That is exactly what I'm saying.

And thank Bunny. My instincts can tend to be bad, if not for her hunch, who knows who I would have investigated.

I insist any further marriage proposals wait at least until the champagne comes out.

Sonic, the man was holding the trophy. Horses don't have hands, you should know that.

You ask for things and when you get them then you dismiss them - as in the Charlie claim. You need a pair of glasses - or do you want to be cartain of that annieh is the archivist - that is why you double check - so that you can kill annieh N2 ?

Annie you are aligning yourself with Hjelp's flawed and very suspicious argument in the "you ask for things and then you dismiss them - as in the Charle claim"
You had previously first questioned Hjelp in a - why are you doing this kind of way?
Then you sidetracked the argument that was brewing between me and Hjelp with a - maybe Charle just didn't realise he had a later message which he then later opened.

This feels like a run for the circle win kind of way which after you had clarified with Hjelp/Sonic you just couldn't resist playing cleverly teasingly and tauntingly.

I'm not riding off into the sunset with you just yet on this Lil Devante horse.

In fact I'm hurriedly trying to dial my lawyer (on that cellphone from the earlier picture) to get my life insurance changed, but don't seem to have any reception in Blackpool Manor.

[Loose Canon]

Lets just say for now that Hjelp was the Patron

We now know he had to have recruited 1 of Annie, Loose , Bunny, Dev, Homer, Rag thats 17% at start of game
Night 1 the recruit becomes 1 in 5 thats another 20%
Thats a 37% chance in total of Archivist having been recruited.

If I take myself out of the equation because I wasn't recruited and same goes for any other original house player not recruited
Start of game probability is 1 in 5
Night 1 is 1 in 4
Thats a 45% chance in total of Archivist having been recruited.

For any other original house applicant not yet recruited the probability of archivist having been recruited becomes higher if you believe I'm not currently Circle.
Start of game 1 in 4
Night 1 then 1 in 3
Thats a 58% chance of Archivist having been recruited!

So maybe you don't accept that I'm currently house?
Cards on the table time;

I am Usher (House) - one night I can redirect the any circle recruitment of a town power role player onto a random vanilla town player.


I think the lynch should be either Annie or Hjelp - Im just not sure which - but other House should be thinking it is 58% that Annie is Circle and Hjelp looks like Circle too.

[Charle]

So with the notice that if town have a miss lynch D2, Loose hints to want to lynch me again?? LOL!!

[Ragian]

I think the time has come to share some important information. You see, between courses I found my way to the building's archives. Many women in my family have been librarians and for a long while I did the same.

I set myself to searching the deeds, the albums, the employee records and I did indeed find something very interesting.

A photo of a man standing beside a horse holding a trophy. On the trophy was written, "Blackpool Manor Breeders Club Prettiest Horse Award." And what was that horse's name, you ask?

LIL DEVANTE!

And who signed the certificate as president of the BMBC?

Devante himself!

I know with full certainty that the house should vote Devante out with immediacy.

VOTE DEVANTE

Reading through. This looks like a thinly veiled guilty verdict. Vote Devante There's been no mentioning (as far as I'm aware) of tampering with the Archivist's findings or with records in the archive, so the result should be as good as it gets.

@Annie, what would be your thoughts on Devante's partners in crime? Most noticeable, in my view, is Loose unvoting after his quick vote, but it does feel as if Loose is doing that precautionarily rather than deviously. Hjelp, on the other hand, posted seemingly without touching upon the guilty verdict.

If the deadline is one week away, we still have time to discuss what to do going forward, but I'm getting my vote in now because I fear my weekend is going to be packed with bits and bobs given the coming of Monday.

[homer_jay]

seems like the main options for a lynch right now are annieh and dev. either we believe annieh's claim or we don't. going after hjelp adds to the likelihood of us being wrong. it means we're assuming annieh has been recruited, and then assuming hjelp did the recruiting. i'm not running the percentages on this, but it requires two things to be correct rather than one. and if hjelp flips house, then we've lost a house member without learning anything. we would still have no solid proof of annie's claim one way or the other.

so unless we get something else (a claim by devante?) then i don't think we risk hunting for the patron by going after a 3rd person.

personally.. i think we need to wait to see what devante says before trying to make any decision. it's a serious accusation being made and he needs to defend himself before we jump to any conclusions, one way or the other.

FP by ragian

[Loose Canon]

OK then Homer I'll make a more serious accusation vote Annie

[Ragian]

seems like the main options for a lynch right now are annieh and dev. either we believe annieh's claim or we don't. going after hjelp adds to the likelihood of us being wrong. it means we're assuming annieh has been recruited, and then assuming hjelp did the recruiting. i'm not running the percentages on this, but it requires two things to be correct rather than one. and if hjelp flips house, then we've lost a house member without learning anything. we would still have no solid proof of annie's claim one way or the other.

so unless we get something else (a claim by devante?) then i don't think we risk hunting for the patron by going after a 3rd person.

personally.. i think we need to wait to see what devante says before trying to make any decision. it's a serious accusation being made and he needs to defend himself before we jump to any conclusions, one way or the other.

FP by ragian

Solid and well thought through post by Homer.

@Loose, what's your case against Annie? Other than you seem to think that she's attempting a coup...

[Loose Canon]

Ragian,

1. Look at the percentages I presented - if you assume I am house, there is a 58% chance to a house player other than me that a player claiming archivist is already recruited or as the OG patron knows that Archivist has been recruited.
2. Annie offered an escape route to an under pressure Hjelp for his nonsensical and opportunistic knew Charle was Heir stance with her "perhaps Charle just didn't read the message" thing
3. Timing of her claim
a. we know from past Sonic games he actively participates in mafia chat channels he operates although he maintains impartiality while doing so - I think he could asked for clarification of whether Charles lynched heir role meant Charle counted in the majority for lynch. Sonic clarified to everyone with/in the warning about game over dangers of a mislynch today. He said first of all absolutely House couldn't mislynch
b. why didn't she hold onto it just a bit longer in D2? I had swayed away from D2 temptation to go after Devante and go after Hjelp instead.
4. Flamboyancy of Annie's numerous husbands and flamboyancy of her reveal of claim and result of her alleged investigation. We haven't seen a mafia sided Annie yet - but she has shown sufficient intelligence in other ways to be intelligent and convincing enough to play a flamboyant mafia sided role. And actually if you strip away the flamboyancy and tendency to look for visual and wording clues from Sonic then there's actually not a lot she has done to accuse people/probe into their House sided veracity- until the flamboyant play. And remember a mafia sided Annie would now have 2 accomplices to chat to to help (Hjelp) her.
A circle sided Annie and a circle with Annie in it would also want to take advantage of Bunny's intuition and vote on Devante

If you like nothing else go with the 58% and challenge me on that.

[hjelp]

@ Loose

I think you shall state in what way you dervied the percentage and based on what arguments and by doing that also involve the argument denial of Charle's claim House and denial of Annie's claim archivist what you asked for. What will the derived percentage then be? At least when I used math I stated the derivation in all games (how boring it was to read- but it wasn't random). you can do the derivation as a spoiler - I wasn't aware of the spoiler when I presented it.

Moreover , since you know rapidly changed to vote on annieh - it's rather a hint of that you want to lynch the archivist and added to that, a kill N2 and the game is finished for good . is that 100%?

[hjelp]

rephrase: Moreover , since you now rapidly changed to vote on annieh - it's rather a hint of that you want to lynch the archivist and added to that, a kill N2 and the game is finished for good . is that 100%?

[Loose Canon]

Lets just say for now that Hjelp was the Patron

We now know he had to have recruited 1 of Annie, Loose , Bunny, Dev, Homer, Rag thats 17% at start of game
Night 1 the recruit becomes 1 in 5 thats another 20%
Thats a 37% chance in total of Archivist having been recruited.

If I take myself out of the equation because I wasn't recruited and same goes for any other original house player not recruited
Start of game probability is 1 in 5
Night 1 is 1 in 4
Thats a 45% chance in total of Archivist having been recruited.

For any other original house applicant not yet recruited the probability of archivist having been recruited becomes higher if you believe I'm not currently Circle.
Start of game 1 in 4
Night 1 then 1 in 3
Thats a 58% chance of Archivist having been recruited!

So maybe you don't accept that I'm currently house?
Cards on the table time;

I am Usher (House) - one night I can redirect the any circle recruitment of a town power role player onto a random vanilla town player.


I think the lynch should be either Annie or Hjelp - Im just not sure which - but other House should be thinking it is 58% that Annie is Circle and Hjelp looks like Circle too.

This explained the % 58% hjelp

[annieh]

I can address these things.

Claim 1 odds are against me
I don't care what's probable. We are lucky and I did a great job.

Claim 2 Charle hjelp lc role confusion response?
I didn't respond to hjelp because I wasn't being addressed and I need people to keep their eye on the prize. I am not aligning myself with hjelp's claims, I don't fully understand them. I was surprised Charle still counts and makes it harder for town. I found out when sonic told us, it made sense to me so I didn't give a lot of thought to Charle role speculation. He's heir, alive, non-voting house.

Devante picks and chooses what he responds to and responds falsely.

Claim 3 timing
My timing was immaculate. I posted my thing 2 minutes after you and sonic posted appealing to the archivist. While you were drafting please come help up, I was drafting yes I will help now.

Devante has timing issues. Best behavior devante turns into where is devante, then the secret thread monitoring call-out, now him sitting somewhere thinking, "oh no, whatever I say, I have to give it a day."

Claim 4 style wrong
My posts show strong commitment to the house. The flamboyant nature of my posts is intended to be fun and hopefully give circle doubts about my ability to uphold a fun style if I were to be turned circle. I think a closed, careful, precise approach would have been worse in a lot of ways.
Just because I did a lot of picture digging, doesn't mean I didn't also try to drum up conversation and choose sides along the way. Remember the 2/3 full hint that I got praise for finding?

Devante's style is to say something everyone already agrees on then conclude with his commitment to finding patron. I think he said the word patron oddly frequently.

I am not mad at LC for pumping the breaks. If all circle needs to do is break the consensus, there is room for a guilty party to try to make a play for the win. You may have noticed my reluctance to participate in day countdown projections. I don't like it, my brain refuses. If there is a patron who will run the numbers and make a break early for the win, it's not me.

Thoughts on other suspicions as rags requested. Hjelp has been weird at times and is a contender for investigation. You (rags) are a good investigation target. If I were circle, I'd have full confidence in your ability to play it cool. I think the silence of the newbies and that we don't like voting them out make them very attractive choices. I don't think circle has claimed Bunny or LC.

Tl;dr: Ladies and gentlemen of the dinner table will see I have very good and normal play and devante does not.

P.S. I have a busy day coming up. Don't expect another long response from me till tomorrow.

[Loose Canon]

Excellent post annie.

I think it will convince or firm up to many and myself possibly that you are house.

If you are house a bright star has arisen.
If you are circle an even brighter star has arisen.

What say you dev?

[Loose Canon]

A fuller appraisal of Annie's post - addressing this to Annie but respecting her busy day - another wedding?

Dev is frustrating me too but everyone does when not busily posting - but current frustration is nothing compared to when Max plays these games.

Claim 1 - 58% I stand by
Others should consider this as a cold mathematical probability and adjust for themselves +/- depending on how they otherwise view you and Dev.
For what its worth my such adjustment has you 51% Dev 49% as circle

Claim 2 - Not aligning yourself with Hjelp. Well actually you would say that if as a flamboyant little circle minx.

Claim 3 - Immaculate or too immaculate?
But yes onus is on Dev

Claim 4 - I've given you credit for being a star if House but a superstar if Circle.
Take the compliment and bank it - you already deserve MVP in my book whichever you are and whether you win or lose

Thought on other suspicions etc - virtually totally with you.

3&4 onwards is what is currently taking me from 58% to 51%/49%
I am I think persuadable.

Want to hear from Dev.

[Loose Canon]

Sonic, i know dev preexcused himself with hunting season etc.

If he's absent for another 24hrs would you consider leaving the house needing the +1 for charle heir mislynch but nevertheless recycling charle into the game with whatever dev is?
Id also request some sort of deadline extension in that eventuality.
I dont think anyone would want a good game won or lost or spoiled by absence alone.

[SoN!c]

Its a super fun game but rules or setups cannot be changed midgame. That has to be carved / etched in stone no matter what..

Because changing setup ingame just ruins the game.

Kingm (and Kong) leaving house is sad yes and the consequence is town now needs all 6 town votes on circle to make it to D3..that is super hard to do yes but thats the situation town is in..and needs to deal with.

A 3P Kong would be on a lynch wagon so thats 2 votes less...

Its where the game brought us..

Deadlines however are only final when the countdown timer is set.

[Loose Canon]

Ok fair enough if dev doesnt reappear in next 24 hours i will argue the 58% (maybe 51% adjusted for towniness of annie) case that annie is a deliciously naughty girl and see how that goes.

Meantime if anyone wants to argue this makes me circle sided linked to devante circle sided - go for it.

[HottBunnie]

Ok fair enough if dev doesnt reappear in next 24 hours i will argue the 58% (maybe 51% adjusted for towniness of annie) case that annie is a deliciously naughty girl and see how that goes.

Meantime if anyone wants to argue this makes me circle sided linked to devante circle sided - go for it.

essentially lc admits to being Circle my guess is zulu stopped playing katyssis is secretary Dev is patron and Lc is the latest recruit, this means we need all remaining people to vote to accomplish a Dev lynch… thats my read

[Loose Canon]

Wrong on me bunny.

What do you think about my claim of usher?
Do you not think ive put more effort than anyone in as house?
What do you think about my point on hjelp?
What do you think about my 58% analysis?
What do you think gave rise to my change of mind between going to bed last night voting dev and waking up about 4.30am uk time, and reading posts in between and changing my vote to annie?
Do you not think or feel that was genuine?

[Loose Canon]

Anyway im going to bed now to get ready for parkrun tomorrow morning.

Nighty night snugglebunny

[HottBunnie]

At this point I think you’re trying to overload us with information to cya.
As far as your claim on Usher I don’t know I like Usher my favorite is his ABC’s song (https://youtu.be/lq_cQwTUViI?feature=shared )we used to play it to the kids in one of the classes I taught when it first came out.
I think you put a lot more effort in the house prior to the previous night at least according to your post log. Does a change in behavior mean a change in role I think so…
I’m not sure your statistics are correct and I generally ignore it when people are putting statistics up without a proper error probability. I worked with SSRS in college which is extremely advanced and always shows you the error probability and that’s what you use for election polls, yet those continue to be consistently wrong. Statistics are for the birds so I appreciate the work that you went into developing it, but as far as I understand it mafia is not a game that relies on statistics.
I don’t know what you’re thinking before you go to sleep or what wakes you up at night my suggestion would be blackout curtains and a white noise machine.
I think generally you’ve got a plan as far as how you want to influence peoples opinions and you have now included in that plan timing as well as storytelling and that your reference to waking up or going to sleep is a part of that plan to what end, well that is harder to tell because you could use the same tactic as house or a circle.

[annieh]

LC, there's no reason for you to dance around playing devil's advocate if you don't think I'm misleading you.

[Devante]

I am travelling for a tournament right now and should be back home late tomorrow or Sunday. I don't really have the time before heading out to the bush but I'll make sure I can look all this over and address Annieh's bullshit nonsense before I head out to hunting camp Sunday night