attack vs defend odds

[liamrisksmart]

i found these stats online. does anyone know how accurate they are? are there any stubborn creationsits out there who are willing to argue its better to defend?

Attacker: one die; Defender: one die:

Attacker wins 15 out of 36 (41.67 %)
Defender wins 21 out of 36 (58.33 %)


Attacker: two dice; Defender: one die:

Attacker wins 125 out of 216 (57.87 %)
Defender wins 91 out of 216 (42.13 %)


Attacker: three dice; Defender: one die:

Attacker wins 855 out of 1296 (65.97 %)
Defender wins 441 out of 1296 (34.03 %)


Attacker: one die; Defender: two dice:

Attacker wins 55 out of 216 (25.46 %)
Defender wins 161 out of 216 (74.54 %)


Attacker: two dice; Defender: two dice:

Attacker wins both: 295 out of 1296 (22.76 %)
Defender wins both: 581 out of 1296 (44.83 %)
Both win one: 420 out of 1296 (32.41 %)


Attacker: three dice; Defender: two dice:

Attacker wins both: 2890 out of 7776 (37.17 %)
Defender wins both: 2275 out of 7776 (29.26 %)
Both win one: 2611 out of 7776 (33.58 %)

[SirSebstar]

the percentages are only 2 decimals, but the rest is accurate

[Funkyterrance]

Why the heck would you need any more than two decimals?

[liamrisksmart]

so does this mean with the manual deploy at the start of a game, army on army, you should always let the opponent take the attack?

[ljex]

so does this mean with the manual deploy at the start of a game, army on army, you should always let the opponent take the attack?

hu?

It means that any time you have 4+ troops on a territory you should attack because you are expected to win more than you lose over time and all other attacks are at lower odds (yes there are times when you shouldnt attack with 4+ so you can defend but not that common in one vs one)

[ManBungalow]

Attacker: three dice; Defender: two dice:

Attacker wins both: 2890 out of 7776 (37.17 %)
Defender wins both: 2275 out of 7776 (29.26 %)
Both win one: 2611 out of 7776 (33.58 %)

This is what makes the difference when large stacks clash. In those situations, you want to be the aggressor.

[liamrisksmart]

oh yeah sorry was what i ment but ot distracted while writing it. so would all you regulars try to live by that rule in general or do uz just take em as they come? i only played a few but they seem pretty split down the middle in my games -attackers/defenders.

[King_Herpes]

oh yeah sorry.

No problem geese, it happens.

[SirSebstar]

oh yeah sorry was what i ment but ot distracted while writing it. so would all you regulars try to live by that rule in general or do uz just take em as they come? i only played a few but they seem pretty split down the middle in my games -attackers/defenders.

You should have your eyes examined as well as your math skills. In a 4-2 situation there is a difference of 8% tot he advantage of the attacker. That equates to throwing 7776 times 4x2 and you will see approximately 615 more dice going your way. That means having a stack of 7164-8391 where the attacker would win...

You keeping track of all the dice and seeing less the 8 % as near equal, yes that sounds about right, except for larger stacks, and large is not 100... Also note, it has to do with probability, so you CAN and WILL loose 8391-7164 with all hands last and not a single army destroyed... if you throw enough dice...

[HighlanderAttack]

whatever you do--just don't auto attack

[SirSebstar]

whatever you do--just don't auto attack

I am NOT going to do 7164-8391 by hand.. In fact I like autoattack.. bugger me, but I am lazy..

[yourientete]

Attacker: three dice; Defender: two dice:

Attacker wins both: 2890 out of 7776 (37.17 %)
Defender wins both: 2275 out of 7776 (29.26 %)
Both win one: 2611 out of 7776 (33.58 %)

This is what makes the difference when large stacks clash. In those situations, you want to be the aggressor.

Thank you so much !
I had overlooked that.

[liamrisksmart]

oh yeah sorry was what i ment but ot distracted while writing it. so would all you regulars try to live by that rule in general or do uz just take em as they come? i only played a few but they seem pretty split down the middle in my games -attackers/defenders.

You should have your eyes examined as well as your math skills. In a 4-2 situation there is a difference of 8% tot he advantage of the attacker. That equates to throwing 7776 times 4x2 and you will see approximately 615 more dice going your way. That means having a stack of 7164-8391 where the attacker would win...

You keeping track of all the dice and seeing less the 8 % as near equal, yes that sounds about right, except for larger stacks, and large is not 100... Also note, it has to do with probability, so you CAN and WILL loose 8391-7164 with all hands last and not a single army destroyed... if you throw enough dice...

i said i got these figures online, didnt check the soucre much. and the mod said they are correct which means only a 4% advantage, 2% deviation from equality. i never tried keeping track of dice, just thought it would be interesting to look up.


interestingly id say this result, so close to equality, is what made the 2-3 dice roll and overall game of risk so popular. if they had a problem finiding a small number of dice that produced a similarly small advantage to attack or defence we may never have had the game at all... food for thought but i am very tired at the moment so wont be suprised if i didnt phrase it understandably.

[KraphtOne]

well i'm assuming that CC uses a different algorithm for their dice program than "that company" used on their game... because some of the outcomes i've seen are statistically impossible... and i played "that game" online for 7 years without ever seeing some of the craziness i see here... but at the same time you can't really fault cc because i'm sure the algorithm they used in "that game" is patented...

[liamrisksmart]

these odds were made by an independant maths student and as far as i can understand. were based on basic permuations and combinations of every single dice roll having an equal probability, then categroising each as win/loss and calculating the %. u could do it by hand but there would be more than 6^5 outcomes to consider.