The Hobbit Mafia [Town win]

[Pikanchion]

I'm pretty sure mitch is just going off of dakky's last words that this must be a bastard game when he think thor isn't town. Also @pika do you really believe any of the dwarves could be evil at this point or is that just a list of likely fake claims for the scum? Cause I can see the second part but not the first one.

I am now reasonably confident that...the role list is as follows (with three or four of these roles merely being the fake claims of scum roles)

At no point have I believed that any of the Dwarves are evil, just that the scum will have some of the dwarves names as fake claims. dakky21's death certainly reinforces this belief given they were not counter-claimed for the name of Dori, while their true role was that of Bolg.

[Minister Masket]

MM: never actually voted for dakky, closest was

FOS dakky and this is VERY close to a vote, but I want to see your reply to this first.

(here)His lack of contribution on D1 continued throughout day 2. dakky voted him on D1, to get him to 6 (L-3). He did say he intended to unvote after a claim though. Was one of the persons skoff defended the most D1, so may be the other mason though.

Ding ding ding, we have a winner.

Yup, I am Fili, and the other Mason to Skoff's Kili. Feels abit strange to claim with absolutely no pressure, but honestly there's no benefit to keeping it hidden, only deficits. Plus Skoff's rather zealous defence of me Day 1 kinda gave the game away to anyone looking closely enough.

Glad to see I'm getting slightly better at picking up when dakky is evil. He tends to be a good scum player and often fools me.

Right now I believe the best course of action is to go back and analyse mitch's interactions with dakky more closely. I don't think mitch is the kind of player to get too much into reverse-psychology spats with fellow scum mates.

[ZaBeast]

Well, here is basically what I've found about mitch before
Below, I've basically kept the interactions with dakky, you can safely ignore the spoilers if you go to that post. And I'm hoping you already read it anyways. I think that's pretty much all there is as interactions with dakky are concerned.

show

But while I was rereading that post I found this

@ BuJaber, you are right I am very cautious in this game, I am trying to change my play style and it is hard to break bad habits, I am still wary of THORTH maybe he is 3rd party ? just something off there, FOS against Dakky and Rags for asking about who did what? but why was Dakky voted for and not Rags ? they are both guilty, I can relate to what Flores (that little ray of sunshine...Not ) said because I take a while to read and post,I am a little older than most or all of you,I remember having a phone on the wall with a crank ,our number was 1 long crank and 3 short ones,no shit guys ,anyway I am torn between H.S. and MM from D1 ,not quite sure who to vote for yet and I will wait for a while

I find this quote is kind of weird
1) he FOS dakky for something he himself did
2) he asks why Rags isn't voted instead of dakky, which might be an attempt to move the bandwagon somewhere else and defend dakky, though
3) he says they are both guilty. Maybe so he doesn't look too supportive of dakky.
I think it could be worth looking more into it, I'm not sure what to make of it.

Also, there's that thing with the masons. Townie mitch should have know from the colors used in his role pm that blue means people sided with town, but scummy mitch should have figured it out by now (and it's pretty much the color code used in every game I think)

@MP, you didn't explain yet how being hesitant/cautious adequates with being fine with dakky shoting at random.
@MM masons can talk to each other during the night right? And if so, any insight from skoff?

[ZaBeast]

I find this quote is kind of weird
[...]

And he ends his post by saying he'll vote for none of the two.

[FloresDelMal]

I suggest that If there are 2 or more masons still in the game they should come forward. Skoffin's death is a double tragedy because we have no easy way of confirming who the other masons are, so he died a vanilla townie basically.
If only one person comes out with a mason claim they will get lynched by policy because it is basically just a free fake claim. So only come out if you have a back up. (You will be lynched/investigated anyway but it would be 1 investigation for the price of two). I would love to see scum take the bait and for 2 of them to come forward together. (wishful thinking?)

I don't know if you're scum of just misguided, but masons are not much more than vanilla townies. Therefore, having them come forward is just going to reduce the pool of players that could have power roles, and making it easier for scum to pick with not much gain for town.

QFT FOS BuJ all this ppl fishing for roles are only trying to make things easier for scum, and it is getting tiring

I'm also considering treating Minister Masket as confirmed town by way of being Fíli at this point, based on each player's interactions with Skoffin, it's ether him or Ragian by my reckoning.

I do agree about skoff"s blatant over protection of MM was ungranted unless she knew he was her fellow mason, so he is clear on my list, but i still dislike how he is playing, seriously MM shape up.

Now about you my dear yellow rodent, as much as i respect your smarts on the game, and often interesting posts, your behaviour towards the dakky's BW left a very bitter taste in my mouth, i know you are smart, and i think you are cunning enough for distance yourself from your fellow scum dakky by leading the BW and unvoting afterwards, i think as scum you are really really dangerous, and i cant see your cowardly and self preservatory ways as anything but anti town, plus when i called LAL on dakky you were against this policy, after leading a BW and not putting your vote were your mouth is makes me understand why you could be against a case built around LAL, because your misdirection is just as fishy Vote Pika

I am not saying that mitch or puppy arent misguided or even scummy, but we have a bigger fish to fry

Yup, I am Fili, and the other Mason to Skoff's Kili. Feels abit strange to claim with absolutely no pressure, but honestly there's no benefit to keeping it hidden, only deficits. Plus Skoff's rather zealous defence of me Day 1 kinda gave the game away to anyone looking closely enough.

mmmh yeah, not surprises there

[Thorthoth]

Now we wait to see if anyone counterclaims Minister.

[Kamikaze Jawa]

As for mitch: As I said before I believed dakky was scum, but I believed that dakky and mitch cannot be on the same team. So unless new evidence is introduced, as far as I'm concerned dakky flipping scum is the best defense for mitch.

I'm not sure how dakky being scum exonerates mitch. His defense of dakky was weird, his continuation of 'Thor must be 3rd party' is odd given that it's exactly what got dakky lynched, and all of the above quotes that Pika posted. His behaviour has been just as scummy as dakky's was and I don't think dakkys scumminess means mitch can't also be scum. I'm keeping my vote on him, but I'm starting to suspect those who are trying to defend him as much as he defended dakky.

[ZaBeast]

I don't get it, mod says you're town so you're town. innocent child or such role? You probably are not Gandalf but that just narrows the scum target.. Why did you do this stunt now?

Hey, I just remembered this quote from dakky and I think it might be interesting to look more into it (around the end of D1, when thor was declared innocent by the mod). I don't know about you, but when I read this I feel like dakky was mildly angry at thor. Knowing he was scum, I feel there are two likely reasons for that
1) Thor was a good scapegoat as he was acting super scummy. Might indicate that few people on thor's bandwagon were scum.
2) At that point it looked like the thor bandwagon would shift into HotShot, possibly resulting in a speed lynch. Maybe HS was his scumbuddy.

Any thoughts?

[Pikanchion]

Now about you my dear yellow rodent, as much as i respect your smarts on the game, and often interesting posts, your behaviour towards the dakky's BW left a very bitter taste in my mouth, i know you are smart, and i think you are cunning enough for distance yourself from your fellow scum dakky by leading the BW and unvoting afterwards, i think as scum you are really really dangerous, and i cant see your cowardly and self preservatory ways as anything but anti town, plus when i called LAL on dakky you were against this policy, after leading a BW and not putting your vote were your mouth is makes me understand why you could be against a case built around LAL, because your misdirection is just as fishy

That doesn't follow logically though: If I were scum I would know dakky21 was telling the truth about their ability as a powered up vengeful rather than a bomb, so I would know that there was no danger to being the hammer on that bandwagon, if you consider me not hammering/being on the wagon at the end cowardly then you must assume I am not on the same team as dakky21. My actions can't really be described as cowardly or self preservatory and as the actions of scum simultaneously in this case.

If I were scum I would have hammered because doing so would only make me look better to town at no risk to myself, as town hammering looked like suicide to me so I didn't.

[madmitch]

Wasn't MM and HS both on the scum list in D1? MM has since proven town but HS has not been cleared yet.

[Thorthoth]

If I were scum I would have hammered because doing so would only make me look better to town at no risk to myself, as town hammering looked like suicide to me so I didn't.

Pika, there was never any evidence that dakky was a bomb. That was just something you imagined... correction: something that you and Mitch imagined.

However, Pika's case is complex, he has dome some unscummy things too, like leading the dakky lynch in the first place.

@ Zabeast, please explain your reasoning for HS being scummy. I've been hearing that all along but where is the smoking gun? Is it just his posting rate?

Just shuffling names around, this doesn't necessarily mean anything...
Thorthoth, Minister, Zabeast,
KamakaziJawa, Flora,
Pika,
BuJaber, Ragian,
Hotshot, MudPuppy, Samlen,
Mitch

[BuJaber]

So first people tell me my idea is misguided. Then MM comes out without any pressure and claims. And everyone just believes him. He could be telling the truth, we might even be 80% confident he's town but there's not enough there to be sure. Skoffin defending him on day 1 of all days is not a huge indication.

Town's best weapon is the lynch. So I was thinking about how useful it would be to reduce the pool of mislynch targets. But you've convinced me ZB; hiding power roles is better than having two confirmed townies.

Vote MudPuppy

[BuJaber]

FOS Pika and Ragian.

Knowing that dakky is scum, DDS and skoffin are both town. Pika and Ragian's behavior, especially day 2 needs to be looked at more closely. Ragian has seemed more interested in hearing other people's ideas than sticking to his own cases (changing votes a few times ending with no vote).

Pika if I'm not mistaken was the first to believe dakky's claim and began advocating for his lynch while saying he's town. His ideas all made sense but he did help force us all to focus on dakky. That became the central theme of D2.

Just trying to look at everything from a different perspective. I was enjoying not suspecting Ragian for a change. But can't help it when mods give him a scum role most of the time

[Ragian]

@MM, what and whom did you and Skoffin discuss in the night?

[ZaBeast]

@MM masons can talk to each other during the night right? And if so, any insight from skoff?

@MM, what and whom did you and Skoffin discuss in the night?

I hate it when people steal my questions

@BuJ You still don't get it. Usually there are two masons, and it makes sense in this case that we'd have Kili and Fili as masons, and nobody else. Anyways, we can be sure we have at least one still alive. We have MM claiming being one. Now, if anyone is a mason and not buddy with MM, but was buddy with skoff (you never know, maybe there's more than one mason team, though I highly doubt it), he needs to come forward. If no one does, we can assume MM is town. And I'm really inclined to believe he is, because someone falsely claiming mason is bound to get counter-claimed and if someone counter-claims, one of them is scum for sure and he's not even outing a good power role, so it would be a terrible idea for a scummy MM to claim mason.

@ Zabeast, please explain your reasoning for HS being scummy. I've been hearing that all along but where is the smoking gun? Is it just his posting rate?

As of now, not much evidence. His case was mostly rooted on inactivity. I'm just saying it would make sense for dakky to be somewhat annoyed if you getting confirmed as a townie from the mod would possibly mean a speed lynch against his scum-buddy. I don't think it has much weight, but IMO it should still be taken into account. And you'll notice it's only one of the two explanations I gave for this, the other one basically being that you wouldn't be lynched.

[HotShot53]

Well, as much as I don't like how he played day 1 and 2, if MM isn't counterclaimed, then I'll assume he's confirmed town as mason. Scum wouldn't claim mason there because it would be an instant counter-claim, a mason would readily trade revealing who he is for the opportunity to lynch a scum. Why MM claimed I don't know, he just reduced the targets for scum to shoot power roles.

Mitch seemed like he was defending dakky early in day 2, but then turned around by the end of the day. He's also made some pretty crazy posts, like trying to continue pressure on thor. I'm not really getting a good read on him either way, I would lean slightly towards the scummier side though.

Unfortunately I don't have the time now to really look into the other cases on MP/pika/ragian/whoever else... it's currently 2:43 AM and I'm sneaking a break at work to post this, I'll be going insane until the extended tax deadline on Monday, just hoping we finish all of our work on time. I'm sure the day will still be going on beyond Monday though, so I'll look into things at that point.

FP by ZaBeast

[Pikanchion]

FOS Pika and Ragian.

Pika if I'm not mistaken was the first to believe dakky's claim and began advocating for his lynch while saying he's town. His ideas all made sense but he did help force us all to focus on dakky. That became the central theme of D2.

What part of trying to get scum lynched is scummy? -I even tried getting us to focus on others while lynching dakky21 multiple times but the surprisingly significant pushback against a dakky21 lynch by DirtyDishSoap, Samlen, Ragian, and others forced me to abandon that...

Samlen might be somebody worth looking into actually; if madmitch isn't scum it's reasonable to believe Samlen is. Lurking and eagerness to steer the town away from a dakky21 lynch (without actually proposing any candidates for the lynch themselves during the day that I can recall) both come across as fairly scummy to me.

[Ragian]

@InsecureBeast, it's repeating a question to underline its importance. You will get the credit for inventing the question (being first to ask the obvious), don't you worry

[FloresDelMal]

If I were scum I would have hammered because doing so would only make me look better to town at no risk to myself, as town hammering looked like suicide to me so I didn't.

and what if you were a lonely SK, you definitely can pull looking townier than town, and put it as you want but throwing a stone and then hiding your hand doesn't scream town, its really hypocrite of you, honestly i don't see any bigger threat to town than a cunning you ATM, and i don't really get why no one else sees it.

Then MM comes out without any pressure and claims. And everyone just believes him. He could be telling the truth, we might even be 80% confident he's town but there's not enough there to be sure. Skoffin defending him on day 1 of all days is not a huge indication.

Oh but it is, skoff is a smart cookie, and the only reason she could stick her neck so far for a lazy kid like MM is because she was certain about his alignment, masons do know who they are, sometimes they can even communicate by day, so i could say that is not 80% but 99% confident he's town.

[Ragian]

Don't you mean that it's 99% certain that he's a mason? I've tried games with one mason town and one mason scum. (I don't know if that would fit the flavour, but I usually don't use flavour in my arguments.)

[Pikanchion]

If I were scum I would have hammered because doing so would only make me look better to town at no risk to myself, as town hammering looked like suicide to me so I didn't.

and what if you were a lonely SK, you definitely can pull looking townier than town, and put it as you want but throwing a stone and then hiding your hand doesn't scream town, its really hypocrite of you, honestly i don't see any bigger threat to town than a cunning you ATM, and i don't really get why no one else sees it.

An SK who has yet to make a kill? -All kills are currently accounted for and there's still no proper indication of any third party presence at all...

[Samlen]

FOS Pika and Ragian.

Pika if I'm not mistaken was the first to believe dakky's claim and began advocating for his lynch while saying he's town. His ideas all made sense but he did help force us all to focus on dakky. That became the central theme of D2.

What part of trying to get scum lynched is scummy? -I even tried getting us to focus on others while lynching dakky21 multiple times but the surprisingly significant pushback against a dakky21 lynch by DirtyDishSoap, Samlen, Ragian, and others forced me to abandon that...

Samlen might be somebody worth looking into actually; if madmitch isn't scum it's reasonable to believe Samlen is. Lurking and eagerness to steer the town away from a dakky21 lynch (without actually proposing any candidates for the lynch themselves during the day that I can recall) both come across as fairly scummy to me.

I simply didn't have anything to steer me towards another lynch and I really believed that a scummy character wouldn't have put themselves in the spotlight. Besides, if I was scum with dakky as my partner it would have been a really easy bandwagon to jump on to gain town cred. Which brings me to my next point that pika might not be mafia partner with dakky since he did get off of the bandwagon when it was fairly apparent how likely a dakky lynch was. It could've been an attempt to save a buddy but I would think the town cred would've been more tempting with a dakky lynch so close if he was buddy'd with dakky.

[BuJaber]

Baited.
Mudpuppy surviving like a champ still no support for his vite but check out who I caught in my net:
Unvote vote flores.

I disagree on both points. Suggesting SK for pika is kinda weird. Pika could be scummy for suggesting that dakky is townie but he wouldn't have knowing that he is indeed scum. I had a slight suspicion that because he started the bandwagon he was trying to gain credit, but why keep saying that he's likely vengeful townie instead of saying he's scum. Because he didn't know.

The second point perhaps yes, but really, why would he claim Kili so early? Also you being 99% sure has an easier explanation: you know for sure he's not on your scum team.

[madmitch]

my reads so far, Thorth town ( nothing else ) MM town ? claimed mason , no counterclaim , but Skoffin and him didn't seem to connect on anything ,they didn't even vote for Dakky , I think Flores is town ,she was the 2nd vote, Zabeast hammered Dakky so that should be townish, I am town and will prove it if needed, as for scummy I don't like the ideal that Sam and Rags didn't vote, and the biggest scum vibe so far is Pika ,him removing his vote then voting for DDS is wrong, now he is after me and in his words if not me then Sam. @ MM do you still think Hot Shot is scummy and why ?

[Minister Masket]

my reads so far, Thorth town ( nothing else ) MM town ? claimed mason , no counterclaim , but Skoffin and him didn't seem to connect on anything ,they didn't even vote for Dakky ,

First of all, I came very close to voting dakky.
Secondly, it's pretty frikkin common for masons to intentionally disagree on minor points during the first day phases in order to not give anything away to scum.

@ MM do you still think Hot Shot is scummy and why ?

I mean, he just posted a valid rl-relating reason for being busy elsewhere lately so I kinda have to take his word on that for now.
Right now I have someone else in mind, which I'll just get to.

Well, as much as I don't like how he played day 1 and 2, if MM isn't counterclaimed, then I'll assume he's confirmed town as mason. Scum wouldn't claim mason there because it would be an instant counter-claim, a mason would readily trade revealing who he is for the opportunity to lynch a scum. Why MM claimed I don't know, he just reduced the targets for scum to shoot power roles.

Any town player worth his salt knows that this works both ways, namely also reducing the odds for a doc role to correctly guess who scum will target. Any I'm willing to bet money the Gandalf role is protective of some kind.
Also, not claiming just leaves the door open for a scum to try his luck in claiming the role themselves.

To those asking what Skoff and I discussed, bear in mind it was only two night phases. The first we only touched on our plan for the next day phase, and the second was mainly talking about dakky. Skoff never really mentioned outright who she suspected overall. I did, but I mention who during the right times. For example:

Don't you mean that it's 99% certain that he's a mason? I've tried games with one mason town and one mason scum. (I don't know if that would fit the flavour, but I usually don't use flavour in my arguments.)

The fact that Fili and Kili are brothers has been mentioned enough times already in this game, and so Ragian as a town player would know not to doubt it. Considering that he has been trying to get votes on me for awhile now, it kinda fits onto place that he would try to latch onto something like this to continually attack me with. Frankly, I think enough's enough now.

Vote Ragian