The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly for the POTUS

[jusplay4fun]

This is NO Surprise, as former President Trump announces his bid to return to the Office in the 2024 election.

"I am announcing my candidacy for president of the United States," Trump, 76, said flanked by massive American flags, at his Mar-a-Lago club and home in Palm Beach, Fla.

The announcement — and official filing — comes just a week after the 2022 midterm elections, which saw a lackluster performance from Trump-backed Republican candidates in key Senate races and competitive House elections. As a result, Democrats were able to retain control of the Senate.

"America's comeback starts right now," Trump said, claiming, "Your country is being destroyed before your eyes."

https://www.npr.org/2022/11/15/1044234232/trump-announces-run-president-2024

The following link has a video of some 5:04 where Trump makes his announcement:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/trump-news-trump-launches-2024-presidential-campaign-in-a-bid-to-seize-early-momentum.html

[saxitoxin]

I'll be honest, I think another candidate would have offered an easier on-ramp to defeating Old Joe, but I'm fine with Trump.

After all, the GOP currently has a ---

[GaryDenton]

LOL!
Having empty spaces and gerrymandered districts with no opponents is not a mandate to lead. I thought you were for states rights anyway, shouldn't you look at the Senate count?


I am getting very amused this morning seeing the nonsense posted.

[saxitoxin]

LOL!
Having empty spaces and gerrymandered districts with no opponents is not a mandate to lead. I thought you were for states rights anyway, shouldn't you look at the Senate count?

I am getting very amused this morning seeing the nonsense posted.

52% of Americans voted GOP last week; 46% voted Democrat

You can cry, shout, yell, laugh, back-peddle, somersault, and scream, but it's a simple fact: the Rats are supported by a minority of voters.

If this were a parliamentary system, McCarthy would be Prime Minister today. You should fall to your knees and thank the deity of your choosing that it's not.

[ConfederateSS]

---------------- Trump has a chance at joining 4 others at winning their Party's nomination...For a 3rd time...
----------------- Trump can be the 2nd to Win , Lose , Win...Like Grover Cleveland....3 timer...What is weird, he gets to be 2 Presidents....The 22nd and 24th...So in reality there has only been 45 U.S. Presidents...Trump can be the 45th and 47th...In reality, still only 45 actual U.S. Presidents...
----------------- FDR a 4 timer...After 3 ...He didn't want to but WW2 gave him the 4th...Won,Won,Won,Won....
----------------- Nixon a 3 timer...Lost , Won, Won...
----------------- William Jennings Bryan Jr... He was a 3 Timer 2 times (Once in one year,3 parties)....In 1896 A.D. He was Nominated to lead 3 parties in the Election... Democrat, Populist, and the Silver Party....They took his combined total of the 3 parties on Election Day....But He Lost to McKinley, He Would Just Be Nominated By The Democratic Party in The 1900 A.D. Election, Lost to McKinley again...In 1908 A.D. Nominated a Third time...For The Democratic Party and Lost to Taft....But He is most Know for The Monkey Trial in 1925 A.D....He led the prosecution...But Defending GOD on the stand...He , at the end, Preached in the mic, radio a new technology...Had , maybe a stroke, it was Hot in the court room during the trial...Collapsed...Died A few days later in His Hotel room...
------------------ People are saying this and that About Trump...2 years is a long time.....Nixon lost in 1960 A.D. , came back 8 years later to win Back to Back...In 1968 A.D.and 1972 A.D....Like Nixon , Bryan Lost in 1896 A.D. , Lost in 1900 A.D. ,and came Back 8 years in 1908 A.D. and lost...He could of Did it again, But Backed off...Let Woodrow Wilson become President...in 1912 A.D...Took a post as Secretary of State...Bryan resigned his post in the Wilson cabinet in 1915 A.D....Wilson wanted America in WWI...But was lying to the American people, saying he was an Isolationist, which he would win re-election on in 1916 A.D...... ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)...

[cdbridges]

rsheat: "Thank you Trump for exposing the traitors. U can censor now. Freedom is not your forte"

I quoted this because it's the most truthful post rsheat has ever made to my recollection.
Every other (besides tRump) politician with the tRump endorsement is a traitor in my book, at least for continuing the Big Lie!

[GaryDenton]

As usual, the actual text of my remark was ignored to repeat the far Right talking point.

[saxitoxin]

As usual, the actual text of my remark was ignored to repeat the far Right talking point.

Oh no - Cook Political Report is also repeating the far-right, Russian talking point! (AKA a mathematical fact that 51% of all Americans voted for GOP candidates and only 47% of Americans voted for Rat candidates)

https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/ho ... acker/2022

Gary McCarthy - do you believe Russians are following you around? Are there Russians in your closet? Do you see Russians in the room with you right now?

[saxitoxin]

Things aren't looking good for the Rats. In the 1970s and 1980s, their benchmark of success was winning the majority by 50+ seats. In 2022, it's a cause for wild celebration if they lose the majority as long as they don't get blown out. There may not be a Democratic Party in 10 years at this rate.

[jusplay4fun]

As usual, the actual text of my remark was ignored to repeat the far Right talking point.

That seems to summarize much of what saxi posts.

[mookiemcgee]

Right now I think the smartest money has Desantis beating Buttigieg handily in 2024 to become the next president elect. If anyone knows where i can place a bet for some good returns on this exact situation+outcome please let me know. Odds on Desantis to be president don't pay enough to be worth it, but Pete being the Dems nominee is still a big longshot, and if I can parlay these together for some sweet payout I'm ready to put my money on the line!

[jimboston]

Right now I think the smartest money has Desantis beating Buttigieg handily in 2024 to become the next president elect. If anyone knows where i can place a bet for some good returns on this exact situation+outcome please let me know. Odds on Desantis to be president don't pay enough to be worth it, but Pete being the Dems nominee is still a big longshot, and if I can parlay these together for some sweet payout I'm ready to put my money on the line!

Will Pete run a primary bid against an incumbent Joe?

I’d much prefer Pete on the ticket… and I think he could beat Kamala… but not sure he could unseat Joe.

Obviously Joe could choose to NOT run… and I was hopeful he would make that choice… but it’s looking less probable now.

So assuming he runs, the only other possibility is he gets sick(er) or dies before the Democratic Candidate is officially chosen.

[saxitoxin]

Right now I think the smartest money has Desantis beating Buttigieg handily in 2024 to become the next president elect. If anyone knows where i can place a bet for some good returns on this exact situation+outcome please let me know. Odds on Desantis to be president don't pay enough to be worth it, but Pete being the Dems nominee is still a big longshot, and if I can parlay these together for some sweet payout I'm ready to put my money on the line!

Sadly true. DeSantis is a war criminal who hasn't had the opportunity to commit a war crime yet. He'll be Bush without the folksy charisma.

[jimboston]

Right now I think the smartest money has Desantis beating Buttigieg handily in 2024 to become the next president elect. If anyone knows where i can place a bet for some good returns on this exact situation+outcome please let me know. Odds on Desantis to be president don't pay enough to be worth it, but Pete being the Dems nominee is still a big longshot, and if I can parlay these together for some sweet payout I'm ready to put my money on the line!

Sadly true. DeSantis is a war criminal who hasn't had the opportunity to commit a war crime yet. He'll be Bush without the folksy charisma.

Until or unless he wins… and starts implementing his psycho right-wing agenda.
Then you’ll be singing his praises.

Can I flag this post for easy future reference when Saxi starts worshiping the ground DeSantis walks on?

[mookiemcgee]

Right now I think the smartest money has Desantis beating Buttigieg handily in 2024 to become the next president elect. If anyone knows where i can place a bet for some good returns on this exact situation+outcome please let me know. Odds on Desantis to be president don't pay enough to be worth it, but Pete being the Dems nominee is still a big longshot, and if I can parlay these together for some sweet payout I'm ready to put my money on the line!

Will Pete run a primary bid against an incumbent Joe?

I’d much prefer Pete on the ticket… and I think he could beat Kamala… but not sure he could unseat Joe.

Obviously Joe could choose to NOT run… and I was hopeful he would make that choice… but it’s looking less probable now.

So assuming he runs, the only other possibility is he gets sick(er) or dies before the Democratic Candidate is officially chosen.

At this point Kamala couldn't beat a dirty diaper, on some polls she isn't even landing on the map anymore so I wouldn't worry about that AT ALL. To the degree she gained 'brand recognition'
as VP it was pretty much all with a negative correlation (among dem voters)

For gambling purposes I care less about 'how we get there', than I do 'do we get there'... but yeah no, I'm not confident anyone will run against joe in primaries but it's certainly a possibility. Also in spite of public statements indicating he will run, I think we are probably less than 50% on joe making it to a general election (be that via getting beaten in primaries, falling ill, choosing not to run for other reasons like party pressure - basically what you just said).

At the end of the day Joe was the perfect rebound f*ck for america. after getting date-raped by trump and then dumping him, Americans appreciated Bidens tenderness and honest ways in 2020. The fact that he appeared to have " a soul + empathy " put him over the top in a race with a narcissistic megalomanic.

But now America wants/needs to dump the rebound they were never 'really that into' and elect someone who could actually 2 term... and those options are Desantis + Buttigieg. And while there are still some unknown unknowns about how those two match up, I give a strong edge to Desantis. We could certainly find a few other names on the Dem side who are maybes. I don't think there are any other Reps (except Trump but I personally don't love his chances at this time)

[jimboston]

Fair enough… so if Biden running is a 50%.., then you factor in the unknowns; other Dem candidates and the Pete/DeSantis matchup…

You’re probably looking at a 10-20% chance of a Pete/DeSantis Matchup with DeSantis on top. Maybe less.

Your bet however is that you have say a 15% likelihood of that matchup and outcome… but you expect the “betting odds” would be much more favorable.

I agree it’s be a good bet… not a safe bet… but a good one.

So you should only lay down money you can reasonably afford to lose.

I’d through $100 that way… not cause it’s not a good bet.
Based on the “math” here it;d make sense for me to put more… maybe $1000.

… but my heart would be against the outcome that would let me cash in, so I’d have to factor that in and reduce my bet.

[mookiemcgee]

Fair enough… so if Biden running is a 50%.., then you factor in the unknowns; other Dem candidates and the Pete/DeSantis matchup…

You’re probably looking at a 10-20% chance of a Pete/DeSantis Matchup with DeSantis on top. Maybe less.

Your bet however is that you have say a 15% likelihood of that matchup and outcome… but you expect the “betting odds” would be much more favorable.

I agree it’s be a good bet… not a safe bet… but a good one.

So you should only lay down money you can reasonably afford to lose.

I’d through $100 that way… not cause it’s not a good bet.
Based on the “math” here it;d make sense for me to put more… maybe $1000.

… but my heart would be against the outcome that would let me cash in, so I’d have to factor that in and reduce my bet.

I read the current odds on DeSantis winning is about 26% according to bookmakers.I'm guessing the same bookmakers odds of that being vs mayor pete are probably way lower than 10% since 50% of those scenarios would be a defeat of Biden, and 30% of that might be 'the rest of the democratic field'. so really we are looking at 20% of 26% so like 5% chance of my bet 'winning'. Yet... to me it seems like either the 1st most, or 2nd most likely outcome which is why I'd be inclined to bet it at 15 or 20 to 1 if I could find that action somewhere.

I can afford to lose all the monies jim. I'm the mayor of tendy town. You play it safe though jim, thats what your wife loves about you.

[saxitoxin]

Every sodomite I know hates Mayor Pete. And I know LOTS of them. His candidacy is DOA if he can't even get his own affinity group nailed down. He's basically like the gay Kamala.

[jimboston]

I can afford to lose all the monies jim. I'm the mayor of tendy town. You play it safe though jim, thats what your wife loves about you.

“All the monies”
So you have unlimited cash reserves? OK

Hi Bernault!

Mookie just dox’d himself!

… anyway, as stated, I like your bet but (as stated) my unwillingness to ‘go big’ has more to do with the outcome that is most likely in this scenario is opposed to the outcome I’d hope for from a political perspective.

Kinda the “don’t bet against the home team” vibe.

[Dukasaur]

At this point Kamala couldn't beat a dirty diaper, on some polls she isn't even landing on the map anymore so I wouldn't worry about that AT ALL.

Unless Joe drops dead and Kamala becomes president, at which point she has some time to make a name for herself before the election. Incumbency is a powerful tool.

[jusplay4fun]

At this point Kamala couldn't beat a dirty diaper, on some polls she isn't even landing on the map anymore so I wouldn't worry about that AT ALL.

Unless Joe drops dead and Kamala becomes president, at which point she has some time to make a name for herself before the election. Incumbency is a powerful tool.

Kamala is a terrible politician and an unimpressive speaker, imo. She is an example of an Affirmative Action (now called Diversity) hire that is not working out well.

She did not do well in the Democrat Primary elections:

Her sharp rise in the polls did not last long, with Harris skidding into fifth place and registering in the single digits by September. When she dropped out Tuesday, her RealClearPolitics national polling average was hovering just above 3 percent.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/03/kamala-harris-drops-out-out-of-presidential-race-074902

Her performance as Vice President is even WORSE. One of the main reasons the House Republicans do not talk about impeachment of Biden is the fear that Kamala would be a TERRIBLE President.

[Dukasaur]

At this point Kamala couldn't beat a dirty diaper, on some polls she isn't even landing on the map anymore so I wouldn't worry about that AT ALL.

Unless Joe drops dead and Kamala becomes president, at which point she has some time to make a name for herself before the election. Incumbency is a powerful tool.

Kamala is a terrible politician and an unimpressive speaker, imo. She is an example of an Affirmative Action (now called Diversity) hire that is not working out well.

She did not do well in the Democrat Primary elections:

Her sharp rise in the polls did not last long, with Harris skidding into fifth place and registering in the single digits by September. When she dropped out Tuesday, her RealClearPolitics national polling average was hovering just above 3 percent.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/03/kamala-harris-drops-out-out-of-presidential-race-074902

Her performance as Vice President is even WORSE. One of the main reasons the House Republicans do not talk about impeachment of Biden is the fear that Kamala would be a TERRIBLE President.

I've only heard her speak a couple of times but she really impressed me. She was my first choice in the Democratic Primaries, but of course I'm not American so my opinion is irrelevant.

But given the chance to actually be the incumbent and govern, I think she could change a lot of people's minds.

[mookiemcgee]

Every sodomite I know hates Mayor Pete.

Is this like an exit interview question you ask them when you kick them out of your bed in the morning?

[GaryDenton]

LOL!

Every sodomite I know hates Mayor Pete. And I know LOTS of them. His candidacy is DOA if he can't even get his own affinity group nailed down. He's basically like the gay Kamala.

Saxi is amusing. When I want to hear the opinions of gay Democrats he is the PERFECT person to ask.

[GaryDenton]

The last time I posted on this thread Saxi, of course, ignored my point that slightly more people voted for Republicans nationwide because of the gerrymandering and unopposed candidates. The nation is very close to 50-50 unfortunately.

Americans’ party preferences were evenly divided in 2022, with 45% of U.S. adults identifying as Republican or saying they were Republican-leaning independents, and 44% identifying as Democrats or saying they were Democratic-leaning independents. The last time preferences were this closely divided was in 2011, with Democrats holding at least a three-percentage-point advantage in each year of the past decade.

More generally, stretching back to 1991, when Gallup began regularly measuring party identification and leaning, Democrats have held an edge in most years.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/467897/party-preferences-evenly-split-2022-shift-gop.aspx