Band of Brothers Super CUP *Complete, Winner=molespe*

[jbclns]

I'm in, I'm confused too, I've always been carried into the next season automatically, yet I saw a message saying I haven't registered.
Napoleon Europe home map. I don't know what happened. If not possible and someone drops, put me in.
I'd like to know what happened though and why I wasn't in?

[Craig25]

Cup is a seperate Tournament to League.

To join 'The Cup', you had to register.

I'm in, I'm confused too, I've always been carried into the next season automatically, yet I saw a message saying I haven't registered.
Napoleon Europe home map. I don't know what happened. If not possible and someone drops, put me in.
I'd like to know what happened though and why I wasn't in?

[Tviorr]

Didnt make the latest update, but good start from the Mogul 3 second turns turned into 3 wins. - This is what happens if you give me disaster free dice and the iffy ones to the other guy

In any case, I went and read closely through the concept. Interesting setup. Theoretically the cup could go on forever, I suppose. - I assume that past experiences says that the laws of proabability dictate that the cup finishes in time for the season 12 league finish- or is the cup intended to be longer than a season and run independent of the league seasons?

How many kills do we expect to see in a round? - Latest update has 2 of 8 matches containing a kill or 25 % which of course translates into 12,5 % kill rate. - So if that holds we are looking at just shy of 150 players for survival round 2?

So less than 100 should make it to round 5 and hmmm it will then be round 14 or so when we hit 32 players. With BYES in effect perhaps more like round 15?

Thats a lot of surviving. Even with a few BYES that will likely spread out on a lot of people as a BYE one round likely means no BYE the next round as no points will be gained during a BYE.

I like the concept. Its so tantalizing. - Just win 1 game each round and stay in it. How hard can that be... to do again and again and again

[Craig25]

Hey Tviorr

You were close to making the 1st Cup Update! You got MAX POINTS and had the 5th fastest DURATION TIMES in Round 1! So, 100% you will not be getting a BYE in Rd 2!

Regarding the format, yes, I have ran lots of Tournaments with this format. And it rocks!

Search for 'Survivor Series' in Tournaments and they were all mine. But all of them were when I was building up players who love to play in my Tourneys, so a lot less players than The Super Cup. But, on the other hand, KO's in these typically started at 8 players where as in the Super Cup it is 32. It was these players who allowed something as ambitious as The Super League to happen:

Baltic Crusades - Survivor Series (17 Rounds before KO's, started at the Semi-Finals though)
Bounty Builder - Survivor Series (DIFFERENT RULES - A FIXED 10 ROUNDS)
Das Schloss - Survivor Series (11 Rounds before KO's)
Peloponnesian War - Survivor Series (14 Rounds before KO's)
Random - Survivor Series (15 Rounds before KO's)
STALINGRAD - War of the Rats - Survivor Series (13 Rounds before KO's)
World Cup KO Edition - Survivor Series (6 Rounds befors KO's, started KO's at Last 32)

My predictions, 1/3rd of all Players will exit evry Round, but slightly more will survive due to BYES......so:

Rd 1: 168 to 112 Players
Rd 2: 112 Players to 76 Players
Rd 3: 76 Players to 51 Players
Rd 4: 51 to 35 Players
Rd 5: 35 Players to KO's (Sub 32 Players)

Yikes, that seems really quick! Maybe we should have started at the Last 16? But saying that, there are another 5 KO Rounds to follow, so I guess starting KO's at last 32 is A-OKAY. Prediction is that THE CUP will run over 2 Seasons?

And yeah, winning 1 game out of 3 sounds easy, but it ain't. My advice, BYES are absoluely crucial to making the KO's!

C

Didnt make the latest update, but good start from the Mogul 3 second turns turned into 3 wins. - This is what happens if you give me disaster free dice and the iffy ones to the other guy

In any case, I went and read closely through the concept. Interesting setup. Theoretically the cup could go on forever, I suppose. - I assume that past experiences says that the laws of proabability dictate that the cup finishes in time for the season 12 league finish- or is the cup intended to be longer than a season and run independent of the league seasons?

How many kills do we expect to see in a round? - Latest update has 2 of 8 matches containing a kill or 25 % which of course translates into 12,5 % kill rate. - So if that holds we are looking at just shy of 150 players for survival round 2?

So less than 100 should make it to round 5 and hmmm it will then be round 14 or so when we hit 32 players. With BYES in effect perhaps more like round 15?

Thats a lot of surviving. Even with a few BYES that will likely spread out on a lot of people as a BYE one round likely means no BYE the next round as no points will be gained during a BYE.

I like the concept. Its so tantalizing. - Just win 1 game each round and stay in it. How hard can that be... to do again and again and again

[Anila8]

Hi Tviorr, Craig,

So far 21 matches have ended in 3-0 and 47 have ended in 2-1. That's 68 matches in total = 136 players, who finished their first round.
Therefore the maximum likelihood estimator (for the real statistics geeks;) of the elimination percentage per round is 21 / 136 = 15%, or 85% survivors.
With that elimination rate, and ignoring the byes, we would need about 11 rounds to reach the KO phase.

Regards,
Anila8

[Tviorr]

excellent. So faster than the first initial few games settling suggest. - 16 games not decided if I count up correctly. - Not sure if the slowest games will contain a different kill rate, but even if they do, it probably cant change the kill rate much with less than a fifth of the games remaining.

Im wondering if the kill rate will change as the rounds progress though. Not sure exactly what to expect, but if we assume that experienced and more skilled players have better chances of surviving, they should fill up a progressively larger chunk of the roster the further we get, thus we might expect the kill rate to go down a bit the further we progress as there will be progressively fewer inexperienced players left that might make those few more mistakes that would increase their chances of biting the dust 0-3?

[Craig25]

In my Previous calculations, I was correct that roughly 1/3rd of Match Ups would end in 3-0, but...........I forgot that this would mean that slightly less than 1/6th of players advancing to a Round would be eliminated! Ad of course did not forget this!

In your calculations below Tviorr, you forgot that the people advancing to later rounds also have typically proved themselves to be better at KO'ing opponents. So that should almost? level things up again?

excellent. So faster than the first initial few games settling suggest. - 16 games not decided if I count up correctly. - Not sure if the slowest games will contain a different kill rate, but even if they do, it probably cant change the kill rate much with less than a fifth of the games remaining.

Im wondering if the kill rate will change as the rounds progress though. Not sure exactly what to expect, but if we assume that experienced and more skilled players have better chances of surviving, they should fill up a progressively larger chunk of the roster the further we get, thus we might expect the kill rate to go down a bit the further we progress as there will be progressively fewer inexperienced players left that might make those few more mistakes that would increase their chances of biting the dust 0-3?

[Tviorr]

Possibly.

Will be interesting to see. In a cup this big, its probably enough data to give a fairly accurate picture of trends that should more or less hold in general as well.

Will probably take a few seasons to be sure of trends establishing themselves and of course theres always the weird factor.

In any case looks like the matches are finishing up or already have. My chromebook and A-galaxy manage to get me online but not always in as stable and predictable manner and with a few glitches and lags, so Im not sure

Looking forward to round 2. - Any idea when we get that going. - Seeing as Im just outside the BYES, I get to play round 2

[Craig25]

11 Games still Active, and 1 of the Match Ups has a particularly slow player in it. I was planning to send a Highlights Mail out today to hurry things along.

Anila8/Tviorr/ClanlordCarl/Anybody who wants to get involved, QUESTION:

Should The Cup just run alongside the League continuously? i.e When a Cup finishes, we start another? Maybe each Cup to start should start in the lull we get when most players are finished their Seasons games and are awaiting a next Season starting? I am thinking YES, but I have not really thought about the CUP long-term!

C

Possibly.

Will be interesting to see. In a cup this big, its probably enough data to give a fairly accurate picture of trends that should more or less hold in general as well.

Will probably take a few seasons to be sure of trends establishing themselves and of course theres always the weird factor.

In any case looks like the matches are finishing up or already have. My chromebook and A-galaxy manage to get me online but not always in as stable and predictable manner and with a few glitches and lags, so Im not sure

Looking forward to round 2. - Any idea when we get that going. - Seeing as Im just outside the BYES, I get to play round 2

[Tviorr]

Hmmm. - Either way would work, I think. I suppose the quickest way is just to head straight into the next cup with whatever days of break that fits the organizers schedule. Its not a huge gameload in the cup. Maximum of 3 games for the survival phase and for most players likely some time waiting for less active players/players who play in different time zones/random slower playing maps.

As the cup progresses its reasonable to expect that players still there will be amongst the more active, and while that will likely also mean a slightly faster game pace, the slightly heavier gameload for the last 32 players isnt that extremely heavy. If any players are feeling it by then, its probably because they play a lot of other stuff. And if so they can handle that bit extra and also its mitigated by having reached the business end of the cup and having a chance to lift the trophy.

The only other aspect I can see in pushing ahead fast is if 2 cups end in a league period, but this should be impossible as long as the cup has what 100+ players probably more like 60+ or 70+. Havent done any math. But I think that should we reach that point, the schedule could simply be changed.

So Id go with pushing along as fast as it can be done while still convenient for the organizers.

[Craig25]

I am not running 2 Cups Simultaneously. My plan is to run 1 cup, when it concludes and we have a CUP CHAMPION, start another.

2 at the same time would be too confusing.

Start time, I think the ideal time is starting at the end of the Season. But that could mean a 6 or 7 week wait. So we could look to start a new one roughly 2 weeks after the old one finishes if it does not coincide at the end of the Season.

Only other thing that needs to be sorted is the number of promotions. 10 was OKAY in a 1 off Tournament, but not if it is going to be ongoing. We may need to reduce it drastically. At an estimate, if a Round takes 18 Days, and we have a total of 16 Cup Rounds including KO's that would mean a Tourney length of 288 Days or 10 Months, or 5 Seasons. Which to me sounds like an extra 5 League Promotion (when available) should go to the CUP CHAMP? 1 extra promotion for the season length of the cup (forecasted)?

Hmmm. - Either way would work, I think. I suppose the quickest way is just to head straight into the next cup with whatever days of break that fits the organizers schedule. Its not a huge gameload in the cup. Maximum of 3 games for the survival phase and for most players likely some time waiting for less active players/players who play in different time zones/random slower playing maps.

As the cup progresses its reasonable to expect that players still there will be amongst the more active, and while that will likely also mean a slightly faster game pace, the slightly heavier gameload for the last 32 players isnt that extremely heavy. If any players are feeling it by then, its probably because they play a lot of other stuff. And if so they can handle that bit extra and also its mitigated by having reached the business end of the cup and having a chance to lift the trophy.

The only other aspect I can see in pushing ahead fast is if 2 cups end in a league period, but this should be impossible as long as the cup has what 100+ players probably more like 60+ or 70+. Havent done any math. But I think that should we reach that point, the schedule could simply be changed.

So Id go with pushing along as fast as it can be done while still convenient for the organizers.

[Anila8]

My two cents:

About CUP long term: I think it's too early to decide about that: we're in round 1 of estimated 16 rounds. Let's first see how this evolves.

Suppose we run another cup after this one, then I think 10 promotions is still ok: only one player gets a 10 league promotion once every 10 months (= average 1.0 promotion per month). That's still slower than the later starters, who get max. 3 promotions per Super League round per 2 months (= average 1.5 promotion per month).

Although: if the cup is won by a high ranked super league player, then this may influence the Super League promotions for multiple seasons, because of this rule:

***If you are an existing Super League Player, Every Season you will be PROMOTED to the MAX from your current League until all 10 extra Promotions are used up!

I think this rule is too generous. For example: suppose that a premier player wins the cup. Then he will remain in the premier league almost forever. He will only need 1, 2 or 3 promotions per Super League season if he would otherwise drop from the premier.
It's not fair that these 10 promotions can be used over multiple seasons.

For new players, or lower ranked Super League players on the other hand, 10 promotions is ok, even if we run multiple cups.

[Clanlord Carl]

Just put in a rule that promotions count x2 to stay in the premier or you can't use them to avoid relegation from the prem. If you don't do this there is a danger you have three +members of the premier who can't be relegated making promotion there near impossible.

As for the cup you could sinc it to the league by running it every x seasons. But simpler to run a new cup once it ends.

[Craig25]

For Premier Players winning the Cup. Some elements of the calculation are simpler, and some, more complicated.

1. If they got relegated from the Premier, they could only use some of the 10 Extra Promotions if there was a free space for them to do so in a higher League. And that would be unlikely that it would appear quickly.
2. But, problem is, it could mean them carrying over the 10 Seasons for ages!

But, for other players it is complicated too. If they win a 10 League Promotion and there is only a 7 League Promotion available. Then that would suck too if we did not allow them to carry over the extra 3 promotion spots.

So, in short. I propose extra promotions for a CUP WIN which CAN be carried over. But, the win should be reduced to 1 League Promotion for every Season The Cup is played (roughly 5). And, we should take a couple of months to think it over

[Jamie Vanilla]

Thanks to all the organisers!
Just a wee thing- my opposition Matt2007 seems to have forgotten to accept one of my home maps in our current games in BoBS Cup R2 (is it a round of four games?)
Jamie Vanilla

[Tviorr]

no 3, 1 home, 1 away and 1 neutral.

[Tviorr]

With the second round of the cup well under way, some of the major sport papers are beginning to pick up on select stories.

I quote an interview below from Cuptastic CupNews:


"So Tviorr, building on the limited success of the Seal Own Goalers in the Leagues, you made the controversial decision to focus almost exclusively on the cup and resting several key players in the Leagues. This has meant and unmitigated disaster of a start in the Leagues where every point in the first 3 matches will clearly be lucky ones. Was it worth it, you dumb smuck???"

--- Well, it was more of a neccessity than a choice, really. - The Seal Own Goalers, while great in their own rigth and gifted with a sublime manager and coach, is still a new league team and League 5 was always going to prove tough. Our roster is comparatively narrow compared to most of the Big League Bastards. So we have to pick our focus and as we are playing the Cup for the first time, we judged it important to make our mark there, so we rest the occasional player in the Leagues chasing the BYES in the cup. - We dont have the finances of the Big League Bastards to buy judges and dice and what not. We simply have to be happy that we got an extremely good deal on Carlsberg recently so we can make some money off the beer sales.

That being said, it is somewhat uphill for our start in League 5 and we will have to settle for a limited amount of well deserved points. It is a concern and we will develop a balance between the Leagues and the Cup as the season progresses. For now we will rejoice for the cup success and that we were able to find a litte bit of money to influence the cup dice a bit, so that the target of 4 points and a good spot in the seedings should by now require a fairly major upset to not fall into place. Go Own Goalers!


"Yes, well. Be that as it may, complaints against the Seal Own Goalers and you as the coach is already abunding. - Firstly Carlsberg is working closely with Danish police to investigate what they call The Biggest Beer Heist in World History. Is that in any way connected to your special deal on beer."


--- Eh. No comment, or hmm I mean. No contest... Or something. - Hey, how about a case of free beer for you and another one for your children???


"Secondly, the Seal Own Goaler fans can only be described as the worst hooligans in sports history. They consistently attack rival fans, police and often small dogs as well. - Last away game I saw one of them biting the concrete foundation of the away stadium."


--- This is just blatantly untrue. Our fans are always well behaved and proper sportsmen and women and other genders, Why in our last home game they were severely provoked and attacked by the away fans who kept shouting "Go Team" at the top of their lungs. Fortunately a number of our fans had had the foresight to bring plenty of Molotov Coctails, so the provocateurs were soon hiding under their seats, many of them on fire. If thats not sportsmanship, I dont know what is. But there will of course always be some biased journalists that will try to turn what actually happened upside down. This is however a luxury problem that comes with the territory of success and fame.


"Eh, hmm. Quite. Yes. So in closing, the allegations that you run the team and everything else using mob methods... is that also a luxury problem?


--- Well, maybe. That sort of depends on how you define a luxury problem. - I usually define it as when a journalist keeps asking nasty questions and you have to go through all the trouble of calling up Bob and having him hire someone to beat said jounalist to death with a baseball bat in the car park... again. But hey some people have real problems, not just luxury problem. Journalists for instance.


"Yes, I see your point. Glad we could clear that up. Thank you for your openness and candor, I am certain our readers will agree with me that the Seal Own Goalers is a most honerable team, as is thier coach. Go Own Goalers!"

[Clanlord Carl]

Just a matter of time before you run into me Tviorr and then you can focus 100% back on the league.

[Lord Banner]

Just to clarify.
Do you start the game of your home map in the second round?
Just got hammered by fuatpanza who started all three games. Fair enough on home turf. But the two other maps would have more balanced had I had the first move in at least one.
Am I missing something here?

[Tviorr]

You always get round 1 . However, you can get unlucky and get 3 second turns to your opponents 3 first turns, which is usually an uphill battle.

Its a random computer choice who starts a game and it cant be changed by any tournament setup, so its down to dumb luck. When you get 3 second turns you have to pull out all the tricks in and outside the book. I find that its usually effective to find out where your opponent lives then break in and napalm his/her modem. If you do that every night, they are liable to miss turns eventually

[Lord Banner]

LoL. Ok I get it. Just bad luck i guess. Tried My best But dice didn’t agree.
Thanks for explaining:)

You always get round 1 . However, you can get unlucky and get 3 second turns to your opponents 3 first turns, which is usually an uphill battle.

Its a random computer choice who starts a game and it cant be changed by any tournament setup, so its down to dumb luck. When you get 3 second turns you have to pull out all the tricks in and outside the book. I find that its usually effective to find out where your opponent lives then break in and napalm his/her modem. If you do that every night, they are liable to miss turns eventually

[Tviorr]

No worries.

I have extra napalm if you need some. I buy in bulk

[Tviorr]

Napalm works by the way. Maybe a little termite too

PLAYER RANK HOME MAP SEED AKA LEAGUE Total Tourney Points This Match Rd 1 Pts Rd 2 Pts Tot Pts Rd 3 Pts Tot Pts Rd 4 Pts Tot Pts Rd 5 Pts Tot Pts Rd 6 Pts Tot Pts Rd 7 Pts Tot Pts Rd 8 Pts Tot Pts Rd 9 Pts Tot Pts Rd 10 Pts Tot Pts Elimintion Rd Duration This Rd Duration Prev Rd
Tviorr 2490 City Mogul 17 The City Mogul 8 4 2 2 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 7.97571 6.41983
NM048609D 2430 Classic Cities: Pot Mosbi 20 6 3 2 1 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 3.34703 15.49181
Ukey 2666 Tribal War - Ancient Israel 6 The Great War Champ, A 2 Yr Tourney that never Ended! 1 3 2 1 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 3.42854 9.91642
sailor488 1765 Fractured America 109 16 3 2 1 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 4.68328 13.60078
Wheelwright 2606 Cricket 9 The Canadian Cricketer Premier 3 2 1 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 5.48269 9.77284

MUahaHAAhaHAA

Edit. Hmm that would have worked better if post system could read the cup spreadsheets

[plurple]

hey could we get a number of games left field at the bottom of the draw/results page so I don't have to count the remaining amount while waiting

[Craig25]

Just use 'Game Finder' M8!

Search Super Cup as Tourney name and Active Games.

You can also search for specific players games if you want to see if anyone else is going to get KO'd this Round. There are 126 Players left, if another 7 get KO'd we move from 3 Auto BYES down to 2!

Anyway, 15 Active Games at moment, we can only really progress to next Round when MAX 3 remain Active. With the Swings in Escalating Games, we can only really predict if a Match Up is sitting at 1-1. So a while to go in this Round yet!

hey could we get a number of games left field at the bottom of the draw/results page so I don't have to count the remaining amount while waiting