Ruben CassarI wrote: wouldn't be surprised if Russia tries to annex both South Ossetia and Abkhazia but this is just speculation from my side.
This is what I don't get. I think you are right, and I think they are going to try to do just that. But, what do they gain from it? I think
IF that is the case, there has to be some further action planned down the road. I would think that end-game for Russia in this, has to be trying to regain control of the oil flow through the region. S Ossetia, is nothing for Russia, beyond a moral victory, but you push that a little further, and then you are talking about one of the largest oil pipe-lines in the world.
From the westerner perspective, I keep thinking there has to be more to this. Russia, saying this is about S Ossetia, just doesn't make sense. There was an uprising within the Georgian borders, and they were dealing with it (maybe not in the best of ways). Russia of anyone, should understand this, look at how they deal with political uprisings, and groups of people screaming for independance (Chechnya anyone?). All that I can see Russia trying to do with all of this, is to say that the Geogian actions in this, violated the autonomy of S Ossetia (that was part of the peace deal in the late-mid 90's IIRC), and use it as a reason to void the agreement between Georgia and Russia. Then Russia could go on the offensive. If they were going to do that, now would be the time. If that is their plan, they
HAVE to do it now, because if Geogia were to become part of NATO, then you control of the oil pipe line in NATO hands, and you better beleive that the NATO nations would not take well to Russia even looking at Geogia the wrong way.