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Russia vs Georgia

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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby kletka on Mon Aug 11, 2008 1:30 am

This conflict follows NATO-Serbia-Kosovo scenario in its footsteps. The reason of the latter was idiotic policies of Milosevich while a formal boilin point was Racak masacre where btw only 40-45 people were killed (all claimed to be KLO fighters by Serbia :mrgreen: ). The reason of the former is idiotic policies of Saakashvili culminating in military assault on Tskinvalli where 1300 were killed. BTW, I doubt this figure (was it verified by independent sources) but the deathtoll (even after dressing ossetin fighters as civilians) will still be greater than 45...

The important thing is that rules of engagements (with TV stations, bridges and Chinese embassies being a legitimate target) have been defined by NATO as well as the political outcome (regime change in Belgrade/Tbilisi). I feel that Russia will be happy to follow this pattern. After regaining control over Ossetia, a long bombing campaign targetting key infrastructure (bridges, electric stations, water facilities) will follow until georgians are fed up and make another rose revolution to get rid of Saakashvili.

Any bets on a different scenario?
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby dewey316 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 2:04 am

Ruben CassarI wrote: wouldn't be surprised if Russia tries to annex both South Ossetia and Abkhazia but this is just speculation from my side.


This is what I don't get. I think you are right, and I think they are going to try to do just that. But, what do they gain from it? I think IF that is the case, there has to be some further action planned down the road. I would think that end-game for Russia in this, has to be trying to regain control of the oil flow through the region. S Ossetia, is nothing for Russia, beyond a moral victory, but you push that a little further, and then you are talking about one of the largest oil pipe-lines in the world.

From the westerner perspective, I keep thinking there has to be more to this. Russia, saying this is about S Ossetia, just doesn't make sense. There was an uprising within the Georgian borders, and they were dealing with it (maybe not in the best of ways). Russia of anyone, should understand this, look at how they deal with political uprisings, and groups of people screaming for independance (Chechnya anyone?). All that I can see Russia trying to do with all of this, is to say that the Geogian actions in this, violated the autonomy of S Ossetia (that was part of the peace deal in the late-mid 90's IIRC), and use it as a reason to void the agreement between Georgia and Russia. Then Russia could go on the offensive. If they were going to do that, now would be the time. If that is their plan, they HAVE to do it now, because if Geogia were to become part of NATO, then you control of the oil pipe line in NATO hands, and you better beleive that the NATO nations would not take well to Russia even looking at Geogia the wrong way.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby Ruben Cassar on Mon Aug 11, 2008 2:11 pm

dewey316 wrote:
Ruben CassarI wrote: wouldn't be surprised if Russia tries to annex both South Ossetia and Abkhazia but this is just speculation from my side.


This is what I don't get. I think you are right, and I think they are going to try to do just that. But, what do they gain from it? I think IF that is the case, there has to be some further action planned down the road. I would think that end-game for Russia in this, has to be trying to regain control of the oil flow through the region. S Ossetia, is nothing for Russia, beyond a moral victory, but you push that a little further, and then you are talking about one of the largest oil pipe-lines in the world.

From the westerner perspective, I keep thinking there has to be more to this. Russia, saying this is about S Ossetia, just doesn't make sense. There was an uprising within the Georgian borders, and they were dealing with it (maybe not in the best of ways). Russia of anyone, should understand this, look at how they deal with political uprisings, and groups of people screaming for independance (Chechnya anyone?). All that I can see Russia trying to do with all of this, is to say that the Geogian actions in this, violated the autonomy of S Ossetia (that was part of the peace deal in the late-mid 90's IIRC), and use it as a reason to void the agreement between Georgia and Russia. Then Russia could go on the offensive. If they were going to do that, now would be the time. If that is their plan, they HAVE to do it now, because if Geogia were to become part of NATO, then you control of the oil pipe line in NATO hands, and you better beleive that the NATO nations would not take well to Russia even looking at Geogia the wrong way.


I don't think Georgia will ever become part of NATO. It would be a liability for NATO and NATO would gain nothing but increased tension with Russia. Also look at it from Russia's perspective. It's like the US having Mexico as a member of the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War. I am sure the US would oppose such a thing and never allow it to happen.

Most of the citizens of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia have Russian citizenship so when Georgia attacked S. Ossetia, timing it with the start of the Olympic games believing that the world would be distracted elsewhere they did not think that Russia would move in and counter react. However Russia said it was protecting its citizens and reacted. I think it's a very foolish move by the Georgians. They did not have control over those two breakaway regions before they attacked and they will have even less control now...

For Russia it will be another reaffirmation that it is back on its feet and that no one messes with her. Russia will probably gain more access to natural resources and also more access to the Black Sea through Abkhazia, something that the Russians crave for strategic military purposes.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby Qwert on Mon Aug 11, 2008 3:51 pm

Rubben its look that you look things more objective then other people =D>
I also can not imagine Georgia in Nato,i doubt that British,France,Greek,or other NAto member will send troops to help Georgians.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby hulmey on Mon Aug 11, 2008 3:59 pm

South Ossetiato used to be part of Georgia along time ago and for some odd reason woke up and said hey lets take South Ossetiato back. But anyways thats what we are being told!! Nobody will help Georgia coz they have nothing to offer!
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby Shatners Bassoon on Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:00 pm

hulmey wrote:South Ossetiato used to be part of Georgia along time ago and for some odd reason woke up and said hey lets take South Ossetiato back. But anyways thats what we are being told!! Nobody will help Georgia coz they have nothing to offer!




they have a major oil pipeline to Europe.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby danodukebb on Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:04 pm

Bush is supposed to make a speech about this in 10 minutes 5:15 EST

can anyone smell world war 3
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby THORNHEART on Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:22 pm

russia wants all the oil from europe i say we got battle trained troops in iraq only a few hundred miles away what say we go let em have some target practice against a real army!!!!
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby GabonX on Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:22 pm

Ruben, it seems that your argument is that it's OK for Russia to put down anti Russian rebellions in Chechnya while if Georgia tries to put down a pro Russian rebellion it is unacceptable. This is not an objective view, but rather it shows a certain illogical favoritism towards Russia.

You claim that people here are anti Russia because of outdated cold war tensions but then you support the cold war style tendencies Russia has regarding it's concern about Georgia joining NATO. Also, the analogy of Mexico joining the Warsaw Pact and the United States never allowing it doesn't hold any water because although Mexico never allied with the USSR Cuba, for all intents and purposes, did.

Russia today is in fact reminiscent of the old USSR. The country is run by a former KGB thug with obvious territorial ambitions and this is an issue which should be of great concern. While it is obvious that you know a great deal about the issue at hand, admittedly more than I do, your obvious biases make it difficult to take what you have to say seriously.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby Snorri1234 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:22 pm

My money is on Russia.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby Snorri1234 on Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:23 pm

THORNHEART wrote:russia wants all the oil from europe i say we got battle trained troops in iraq only a few hundred miles away what say we go let em have some target practice against a real army!!!!


Yet another sensible and eloquent post by Thornie.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby hulmey on Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:25 pm

GabonX wrote:Ruben, it seems that your argument is that it's OK for Russia to put down anti Russian rebellions in Chechnya while if Georgia tries to put down a pro Russian rebellion it is unacceptable. This is not an objective view, but rather it shows a certain illogical favoritism towards Russia.

You claim that people here are anti Russia because of outdated cold war tensions but then you support the cold war style tendencies Russia has regarding it's concern about Georgia joining NATO. Also, the analogy of Mexico joining the Warsaw Pact and the United States never allowing it doesn't hold any water because although Mexico never allied with the USSR Cuba, for all intents and purposes, did.

Russia today is in fact reminiscent of the old USSR. The country is run by a former KGB thug with obvious territorial ambitions and this is an issue which should be of great concern. While it is obvious that you know a great deal about the issue at hand, admittedly more than I do, your obvious biases make it difficult to take what you have to say seriously.


And are the USA any different? I say nuke russia and usa and the world would be so much better =D> =D>
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby Ruben Cassar on Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:57 pm

GabonX wrote:Ruben, it seems that your argument is that it's OK for Russia to put down anti Russian rebellions in Chechnya while if Georgia tries to put down a pro Russian rebellion it is unacceptable. This is not an objective view, but rather it shows a certain illogical favoritism towards Russia.


First of all let it be know that I am neither pro Russia nor pro Georgia. Of course since I live in the Western World I am exposed to Western media which are naturally biased and anti Russian. I try to form my own opinions with a balanced view that only a person from a neutral country like mine can understand. Most Americans will be innately biased against Russia and that's understandable. However since I come from a tiny and neutral state I am free of these preconceptions. I have studied European politics at university and I like to follow these political issues whenever they arise.

Now back to your post. Why do you misquote me? When did I ever say that it's okay for Russia to quell down rebellions in Chechnya? I never mentioned that issue so why do you invent stuff that I never mentioned? Is it because my unbiased view doesn't go well with your logic and thus you invent things I never said? If there is anyone who does not have an objective view it's you.

South Ossetia does not want to be part of Georgia. It has nothing in common with Georgia. In fact both Georgia and Abkhazia have been autonomous since 1992 even though in maps they are grouped with Georgia. They never belonged there. In fact they are a product of the flawed Soviet ideology. In the past both regions were part of Russia. But the Communists decided to incorporate them in Georgia. It didn't matter to them at that time since both Russia and Georgia were republics with the USSR. The same mistake was repeated with Crimea...another time bomb, but let's not go in there.


GabonX wrote:You claim that people here are anti Russia because of outdated cold war tensions but then you support the cold war style tendencies Russia has regarding it's concern about Georgia joining NATO. Also, the analogy of Mexico joining the Warsaw Pact and the United States never allowing it doesn't hold any water because although Mexico never allied with the USSR Cuba, for all intents and purposes, did.

Russia today is in fact reminiscent of the old USSR. The country is run by a former KGB thug with obvious territorial ambitions and this is an issue which should be of great concern. While it is obvious that you know a great deal about the issue at hand, admittedly more than I do, your obvious biases make it difficult to take what you have to say seriously.


You are certainly anti Russian and it shows from your post. But that does not matter to me. I am not Russian and I don't have Russian interests to defend. Once again you misquote and lie. I never said that I support Russia's cold war tendencies. Do you actually bother to properly read my posts or you read them and then invent what you want to believe? I said that seeing this issue from Russia's point of view it is natural for them to be threatened if Georgia joins NATO. They will feel encircled. To help people like you understand what I meant I gave a similar example with the US and Mexico. It is obvious that Mexico never considered joining the Warsaw Pact, it was just an example. In fact when Cuba was allied with Russia you two big guys (USSR and USA) nearly brought the world as we know it to an end and World War 3 was a stark and possible reality. I shudder in fear when I think just how close the two super powers were to unleashing nukes upon each other. And note that Cuba is close to the US but it does not border the US while Georgia borders Russia. So you out of all people should have understood my comparison.

Russia might be reminiscent of the old USSR. I never said it wasn't. But you know what? The US does whatever it wants when it feels like it as well. Sure the US is a democratic country and I prefer the US over Russia, but don't tell me that both countries aren't power seeking and that they don't do what's best for them. The majority of the nations and the UN were against military intervention in Iraq but did this stop the US? No. Of course not. Because no one can stop the US...apart from Russia. However such a thing will never happen as it would mean the end of the world. So Russia will just ignore everyone and do what it wants in Georgia, just like the US did in Iraq. That's what being a super power means. And the other countries can only watch powerless.

Finally once again I reiterate. I am not biased...far from it. I see the whole picture. I am just a spectator. However the fact that I am not biased might seem like I am biased to you...since actually you are biased. And that's ironic. However please, make all the comments and arguments that you want and I will gladly read them and participate in the discussion, but don't misquote what I said...because that's just not fair.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby kletka on Mon Aug 11, 2008 5:27 pm

GabonX wrote:Ruben, it seems that your argument is that it's OK for Russia to put down anti Russian rebellions in Chechnya while if Georgia tries to put down a pro Russian rebellion it is unacceptable. This is not an objective view, but rather it shows a certain illogical favoritism towards Russia.


There is a slight difference. Chechen are hardcore jihadis blowing up planes and apartment blocks and taking large numbers of hostages in schools, theatres and hospitals. On the other hand, ossetins are small peace loving christian nation split between Russia and Georgia suffering from its neighbhors (remember Beslan - 99% of dead kids there were ossetin).


Ruben Cassar wrote:Russia might be reminiscent of the old USSR.
Maybe, but not more than Georgia. Please, remember that the main butcher in the histroy of humankind, Stalin and his NKVD sidekick Beria were georgians. Gori, that was left by geogrian army today, features Stalin's museum as its main tourist attraction :mrgreen: http://www.stalinmuseum.ge/touristeng.html BTW, Georgia has not managed a single constitutional government change (Gamsakhurdia was deposed and killed while Shevarnadze lost the rose revolution). If it qualifies to be called "democracy", there would a handful of countries who wouldn't :mrgreen:


hulmey wrote: I say nuke russia and usa and the world would be so much better
Heeee, maybe, two H-bombs, one on Moscow, one on Washington, DC is what humankind needs :roll:
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby brooksieb on Mon Aug 11, 2008 7:05 pm

Well it is a almost definate military defeat for Georgia now and are on the road to Tblisi after capturing Stalin's hometown of Gori, just south of the current Georgian part of Ossetia so it looks like it's all over for Georgia but the situation there is still under way.

So Russia looks to be going the whole way instead of capturing Ossetia and have just captured the Abkhazia area on the black sea.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby Simon Viavant on Mon Aug 11, 2008 7:37 pm

THORNHEART wrote:russia wants all the oil from europe i say we got battle trained troops in iraq only a few hundred miles away what say we go let em have some target practice against a real army!!!!

Then there would be world war 3. If any powerful country goes to help Georgia, this could get big pretty fast. That was pretty much how World War 1 started. The Bosnians (backed and aided by Serbia) assasinated Archduke Ferdinand. Then Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia. Russia, which is allied with Serbia, declares war on Austria-Hungary. Germany then declares war on Russia. Britain and France declare war on Germany, etc. I haven't really read up on this so I don't really know who's doing the right thing. It might have been a completely Russian instigated revolt to weaken Georgia, or it might have been a long time coming and the Ossetians have wanted to break away.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby Jenos Ridan on Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:18 pm

kletka wrote:This conflict follows NATO-Serbia-Kosovo scenario in its footsteps. The reason of the latter was idiotic policies of Milosevich while a formal boilin point was Racak masacre where btw only 40-45 people were killed (all claimed to be KLO fighters by Serbia :mrgreen: ). The reason of the former is idiotic policies of Saakashvili culminating in military assault on Tskinvalli where 1300 were killed. BTW, I doubt this figure (was it verified by independent sources) but the deathtoll (even after dressing ossetin fighters as civilians) will still be greater than 45...

The important thing is that rules of engagements (with TV stations, bridges and Chinese embassies being a legitimate target) have been defined by NATO as well as the political outcome (regime change in Belgrade/Tbilisi). I feel that Russia will be happy to follow this pattern. After regaining control over Ossetia, a long bombing campaign targetting key infrastructure (bridges, electric stations, water facilities) will follow until georgians are fed up and make another rose revolution to get rid of Saakashvili.

Any bets on a different scenario?


No. Russia will follow this pattern. Look at Russian History. Look at the timing. Russia will annex Georgia.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby Jenos Ridan on Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:26 pm

Simon Viavant wrote:
THORNHEART wrote:russia wants all the oil from europe i say we got battle trained troops in iraq only a few hundred miles away what say we go let em have some target practice against a real army!!!!

Then there would be world war 3. If any powerful country goes to help Georgia, this could get big pretty fast. That was pretty much how World War 1 started. The Bosnians (backed and aided by Serbia) assasinated Archduke Ferdinand. Then Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia. Russia, which is allied with Serbia, declares war on Austria-Hungary. Germany then declares war on Russia. Britain and France declare war on Germany, etc. I haven't really read up on this so I don't really know who's doing the right thing. It might have been a completely Russian instigated revolt to weaken Georgia, or it might have been a long time coming and the Ossetians have wanted to break away.


This has been brewing since the fall of the USSR. It is likely, if not the actual case, that this has been something that has been in Putin's mind for some time. In which case, he is not alone and has made sure that he is in a position to carry all his plans out without any doves getting in his way.

We may just be looking at WW3 in the making.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby Frigidus on Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:37 pm

Jenos Ridan wrote:
Simon Viavant wrote:
THORNHEART wrote:russia wants all the oil from europe i say we got battle trained troops in iraq only a few hundred miles away what say we go let em have some target practice against a real army!!!!

Then there would be world war 3. If any powerful country goes to help Georgia, this could get big pretty fast. That was pretty much how World War 1 started. The Bosnians (backed and aided by Serbia) assasinated Archduke Ferdinand. Then Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia. Russia, which is allied with Serbia, declares war on Austria-Hungary. Germany then declares war on Russia. Britain and France declare war on Germany, etc. I haven't really read up on this so I don't really know who's doing the right thing. It might have been a completely Russian instigated revolt to weaken Georgia, or it might have been a long time coming and the Ossetians have wanted to break away.


This has been brewing since the fall of the USSR. It is likely, if not the actual case, that this has been something that has been in Putin's mind for some time. In which case, he is not alone and has made sure that he is in a position to carry all his plans out without any doves getting in his way.

We may just be looking at WW3 in the making.


Our country may be run by stupid assholes, but they're greedy stupid assholes. We're not going to war with Russia (and probably China if it came to that) over Georgia. What do we look like, men of principle? Plus, with our weakening economy the immense amount of money it would take to fund a war of that scale would probably take us out before things even got under way.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby Jenos Ridan on Mon Aug 11, 2008 10:03 pm

Frigidus wrote:
Jenos Ridan wrote:
Simon Viavant wrote:
THORNHEART wrote:russia wants all the oil from europe i say we got battle trained troops in iraq only a few hundred miles away what say we go let em have some target practice against a real army!!!!

Then there would be world war 3. If any powerful country goes to help Georgia, this could get big pretty fast. That was pretty much how World War 1 started. The Bosnians (backed and aided by Serbia) assasinated Archduke Ferdinand. Then Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia. Russia, which is allied with Serbia, declares war on Austria-Hungary. Germany then declares war on Russia. Britain and France declare war on Germany, etc. I haven't really read up on this so I don't really know who's doing the right thing. It might have been a completely Russian instigated revolt to weaken Georgia, or it might have been a long time coming and the Ossetians have wanted to break away.


This has been brewing since the fall of the USSR. It is likely, if not the actual case, that this has been something that has been in Putin's mind for some time. In which case, he is not alone and has made sure that he is in a position to carry all his plans out without any doves getting in his way.

We may just be looking at WW3 in the making.


Our country may be run by stupid assholes, but they're greedy stupid assholes. We're not going to war with Russia (and probably China if it came to that) over Georgia. What do we look like, men of principle? Plus, with our weakening economy the immense amount of money it would take to fund a war of that scale would probably take us out before things even got under way.


Ok, so Bush and Cheny don't want to sent in troops, violating forty-plus year old NATO agreements. Then Congress impreaches both of them and we go in at the complusion of our prior commitments. Also, Georgia has some important pipelines; if Bush and his Oil-Barons don't push for involvement, then they truely are stupid.

Also, wars has funny ways of bringing economies out of the gutter: case in point; WW2.

I actually surprised that none of this crossed your mind. We'll get involved in some manner or other. We can only hope that our involvement isn't one of conflict. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby Frigidus on Mon Aug 11, 2008 10:17 pm

Jenos Ridan wrote:Ok, so Bush and Cheny don't want to sent in troops, violating forty-plus year old NATO agreements. Then Congress impreaches both of them and we go in at the complusion of our prior commitments. Also, Georgia has some important pipelines; if Bush and his Oil-Barons don't push for involvement, then they truely are stupid.

Also, wars has funny ways of bringing economies out of the gutter: case in point; WW2.

I actually surprised that none of this crossed your mind. We'll get involved in some manner or other. We can only hope that our involvement isn't one of conflict. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.


In WW2 our economy was pulled out of depression because we became a manufacturing powerhouse. That won't happen with this one. I'm certain we'll wag a finger or two, but no matter what agreement we may have had the US will not fight Russia for Georgia's sake. They'd sooner abandon NATO I'm sure. Sure, there might be a few threatened pipelines, but Russia has nukes. They probably wouldn't use them, but would you put it past them?

Plus, Bush has no say in whether we don't go to war, just whether we deploy our troops outside of them. Congress has the final say in that matter, and they aren't exactly a bastion of principle themselves.

Either way, if we were foolish enough to go to war we would lose. We may be militarily superior, but our economy couldn't take the punishment.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby jay_a2j on Mon Aug 11, 2008 10:25 pm

Jenos Ridan wrote:
We may just be looking at WW3 in the making.




Easily. :(


Doesn't look good.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby got tonkaed on Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:02 am

I think its still a bit of an overreaction to assume the US has any type of hand to play here. Yes there are economic interests here, yes the situation is quite complicated. Yes russia and georgia are engaged in something that as a third party observer we do not want.

However consider the following:

1) we are currently not a nation that is prepared to accept hostility toward russia. Though certainly there are plenty of misinformed Americans who would love nothing more than to hit the commies again, the vast majority of Americans probably couldnt find Georgia on a map (either one). Especially in the context of a long term battle that is again being cast as improving, it isnt the time to try and sell the need for involvement.

2) I cant imagine president bush is really going to overstep his boundaries in this case. Already a president who will be remembered quite harshly, it seems quite unlikely that he will be able to muster up the choice to heavily involve the nation right before an election. As bad as things have been at times for Bush, if Mccain got elected, you could at least start to put a little bit of a silver lining on it.

3) Neither one of the candidates really want to take a stance on this at this time id imagine. Although Mccain was more firm in his denouncement of Russia, he certainly would dangle an or else in front of Russia. Obama certainly cant do so, as the lefter you go in the Democratic party, the far less likely they are going to want conflict, as some are already worried about his evac plan in Iraq.

4) The US doesnt necessarily always get involved purely out of economic interest. As we are seeing at least under this administration, there has been very little evidence of action done out of this variety of national interest. If any action was likely to occur in the last half year of a Bush administration, it would be on the behalf of the ally Isreal not on the behalf of Georgia.

Sometimes someone else just comes out the winner. Id imagine if Russia really wanted to draw a line in the sand, the most that would happen is there would be some arms sent to Georgia. Im not nearly convinced yet that theres anymore to it from our angle.
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby kletka on Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:24 am

Jenos Ridan wrote: No. Russia will follow this pattern. Look at Russian History. Look at the timing. Russia will annex Georgia.


WTF 4? It would be a violation of international law even for russians :mrgreen: Besides, it does not follow the pattern: Russia will stop the war as soon as Saakashvili is out. After this it will recognize independence of Abkhasia. South Ossetia is a trickier bit because of North Ossetia within Russia... There annexation is possible...
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Re: Russia vs Georgia

Postby Hologram on Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:35 am

Ruben Cassar wrote:Why is it okay for Kosovo and the rest of the former Yugoslav republics to decalre independence and gain the backing of the EU and US while South Ossetia and Abkhazia have declared independence from Georgia since 1992 and the EU and US don't back them up?

Food for thought guys.

Easy. International interests.

The US and the rest of NATO helped defend the Kosovars against ethnic cleansing in the 90s, and as a result when Kosovo wanted to declare independence there was an obligation to back them, especially when there's a lot of US sympathy and a potential ally in it for you.

Whereas in South Ossetia and Abkhazia there's obviously a reason that the US is not backing them. Even with complete idiots like Bush, government leaders still don't do things without reasons, and it's not just out of ignorance (well, it's unlikely anyway) because government heads, especially those of world powers like the US and the UK get briefed on everything going on in the world and make a decision accordingly.
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