Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

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Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Postby tattooedude on Fri Mar 27, 2009 12:42 am

i will track my dice if you want. Something is wrong, i have gone four rounds without winning a throw, lost 15 vs 1 battles, and the list goes on. Very frustrating.
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Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Postby lhcguy on Tue Apr 07, 2009 4:55 am

Hi.. i have not read all the 20 pages, but i think there should also be an measurement of the streakiness of dices, since most users complain about too long streaks.

Can you please add some more information in the script?

I.e.:
% that a dice is the same as the dice before
% of all 3 dices in an attack role are the same?
% of all 2 dices in a defensive role are the same?
% of the outcome of a battle is the same as in the battle before? (win, tie, loose)

If you add those in your script, i can get the ideal numbers for you with some math.
This might shed light on the streakyness of the dices (although i believe it will simply show those people, that they are superstitious)

Thx :)
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Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Postby lancehoch on Tue Apr 07, 2009 12:03 pm

lhcguy wrote:Hi.. i have not read all the 20 pages, but i think there should also be an measurement of the streakiness of dices, since most users complain about too long streaks.

Can you please add some more information in the script?

I.e.:
% that a dice is the same as the dice before
% of all 3 dices in an attack role are the same?
% of all 2 dices in a defensive role are the same?
% of the outcome of a battle is the same as in the battle before? (win, tie, loose)

If you add those in your script, i can get the ideal numbers for you with some math.
This might shed light on the streakyness of the dices (although i believe it will simply show those people, that they are superstitious)

Thx :)

The user who created this script has not visited CC in a while. It does not seem likely that he will make any changes to this script. One possibility is if another user decides to adopt the script, but I do not know how likely that is.
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Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Postby Kranberry on Wed May 06, 2009 12:52 pm

I have a question about the odds. Where are people getting the odds for this and other scripts. I have created a spreadsheet that shows all the possible combinations of dice throws for 3v2. And according to dice analyzer the ideal win rate for 3v2 dice is ~37% of the time. I don't get this number. Mine is totally different...just wondering where people are getting their odds.
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Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Postby scottp on Wed May 06, 2009 1:01 pm

here's one statistical analysis:

http://www.plainsboro.com/~lemke/risk/

there are a bunch if u google "risk dice odds"
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Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Postby Kranberry on Wed May 06, 2009 1:34 pm

Thanks found a slight flaw in my logic and it has been fixed. :P My bad...
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Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Postby Teflon Kris on Mon Jul 27, 2009 8:54 am

What a coincidence that dice analyser disaappears then the dice are rediculous for game ... after game... after game

Seriously though- Any chance of defending dice analyser? And opponents dice analyser?

Without that there is no way of telling if you are being ripped-off? I'm sure many players use dice analyser to check there isnt a dice conspiracy against them

Oh, and card analyser too :P :lol:

Another potential use of dice analyser could be to compare results and dice - to do this it may need to be tweaked to show game dice and recent dice (although again, for a full picture, defending dice and opponents dice would be needed).

Just some ideas- nice tool though :D
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Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Postby istanbul39 on Wed Aug 05, 2009 12:58 pm

Is dice analyzer disabled? Tried to download and getting a script error.,
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Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Postby DuGa on Fri Aug 28, 2009 4:02 am

Why does this appear in the top of my dice analyzer:

Game not found!! Cookie name: 'conquerclub'?


Thanks.
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Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Postby Teflon Kris on Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:29 am

How many million dice need to be thrown before it is statistically impossible to have less than ideal dice?
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Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Postby sbuck143 on Thu Sep 03, 2009 5:26 pm

i am discovering that the dice seemed to be skewed towards the defender an inordinate amount. I will install this script to verify through that.


Note I'm not just complaining as an attacker, but i've been the beneficiary of several of these events as well. But having been here for only 1 week, and already having been a party to at least a dozen 1 in a million events (literally 1 in a million, like 23 v 3 , 12 v 2), i am already extremely suspicious of the dice. Defenders win 3 v 2 battles way way more often than they should, and seem to roll double 6's like its going out of style.



What do we know about how the random dice are indeed generated randomly? There are whole college departments devoted to making computer randomizers truly random. What do we know about the seed used here?
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Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Postby RADAGA on Fri Sep 04, 2009 11:30 am

sbuck143 wrote:i am discovering that the dice seemed to be skewed towards the defender an inordinate amount. I will install this script to verify through that.


Note I'm not just complaining as an attacker, but i've been the beneficiary of several of these events as well. But having been here for only 1 week, and already having been a party to at least a dozen 1 in a million events (literally 1 in a million, like 23 v 3 , 12 v 2), i am already extremely suspicious of the dice. Defenders win 3 v 2 battles way way more often than they should, and seem to roll double 6's like its going out of style.



What do we know about how the random dice are indeed generated randomly? There are whole college departments devoted to making computer randomizers truly random. What do we know about the seed used here?


You wont get anywhere. People here say it is random, and there is no way to prove it is not, even if you have a streak of three million attacker ONES versus two million defense ONES, it still can happen in a random streak. I just got a 10x4 turned to ruin because defense got 6,6 / 6,6 / 6,6 / 6,6 - this should happen once every 1.6 MILLION rolls.

To roll 1,6 mi. rolls, making 16 attacks a day in ten games (160/day) you would need 10.000 days, or about 30 YEARS playing...

Oh, and I have wrote Random.org about it once:

Don´t you think your numbers wield far too many streaks in a row to be considered random? I am a ConquerClub user, they use your numbers and claim them to be perfect. But the number of times we find strange things with the results is amazing.

(rolled 30 numbers at their generator and posted the results)

How can we trust it, if every time we get the die roller, it shows results that "are possible" but "should happen once every many rolls", not on "every other" roll. On those 30 dice, for instance, I´ve seen only one FOUR.. ....one four in 30 rolls ... where it should be something around five.

but I got 10 sixes .. 33,3% of the dice.


The reply>

Hello André,

So I'm finally finding some time to reply to your email. I have no idea who ConquerClub is and I have no commitment to them to reply to their users' emails.


Go figure....
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Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Postby 72o on Fri Sep 04, 2009 2:30 pm

Radaga, have you installed the dice analyzer?
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Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Postby RADAGA on Fri Sep 04, 2009 2:31 pm

72o wrote:Radaga, have you installed the dice analyzer?


Yep, and with tens of thousands of rolls I have a 3x1 stats are (63.26% / 36.74%)
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Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Postby 72o on Fri Sep 04, 2009 2:44 pm

So, if that was your percentage out of 10000 3v1 attacks,

65.97-63.26=2.71%*10000=271 more ones you should have killed out of ten thousand tries.

I don't think this variance is statistically significant, out of a relatively small sample size. Do you have big variances in other rolls, like 3v2?
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