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Mafia Family Game **Game Over** Isengard Win

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Postby onbekende on Thu Feb 15, 2007 2:42 pm

people hate me :cry:

I have no powers, no ability and I am happy I survived this far

VGM made perhaps a slip-up, but 2 mafia family's can explain stuff, like the double night kills, it is or a serial killer, or a second mafia
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Postby vgmmaster on Thu Feb 15, 2007 4:36 pm

trestain wrote:
vgmmaster wrote:Call me crazy here, but there is a slight possibility that there could be two mafia groups. I know this could be a possibility, because I had a game on another forum (18 people I belive) and it had two mafia groups, three people each. And looking at the kills so far, the setups look very similiar to each other.

So, if we do have two mafia groups with three people each, that would mean that out of the 6 remaining players, 4 are mafia. The worst scenario is that they are both from the same mafia group. Which means it would be 3 M vs. 1 M vs. 2 T.

If we lynch a member of the 3 group mafia, and the other mafias kill each other tonight, it would be 1M vs. 0M vs. 2T.

That of course is worst possible scenario. But even then, we have a chance to win, no matter how slim it may look.


We have to be careful though. If we lynch a townie or the wrong mafia member (the 1 man group following the scenario), then we are screwed.


what do you mean worst possible scenario, only if you are mafia is this statement true, (have we caught you slipping up here)

also if you were a townie then it wouldn't make any difference if we killed the last member of one mafia group, only if you were that person would you be screwed.

FOS vgmmaster

is that person you it certainly sounds like it

also

FOS onbekende

I am still not happy with your answers from yesterday


Earlier somebody mentioned that the mafia may be near to outnumbering us. If there is one mafia group and there is one mafia member left, it would be 5 townies vs. 1 townie. If there are 2 mafia members left (providing it's a four man mafia) we still outnumber the mafia 4 - 2.

Worst possible scenario would be the simple fact that if there are two mafia groups with three people each (and both of the dead mafia members are from the same group), then one mafia would have three people left, one mafia group would have one person left, and the Town has two people left. However, if you want the simple math, it would be 4 mafia vs. 2 townies. The reason the game didn't end yet is because of the way the kills can happen.

Look at it this way. Which scenario is worse.

3 mafia vs. 1 mafia vs. 2 townies

or

2 mafia vs. 2 mafia vs. 2 townies.

The worst scenario (in my opinion), is the first scenario. If we lynch a townie, it's automatic game over. If we lynch the alone mafia member, it's automatic game member. In both situations, we would be outnumbered by the mafia. However, if we manage to lynch a mafia member in the three man group, they kill the alone mafia member, and he kills one of the other two mafia members, it's possible we may still win. However, getting a victory is the hard part as our chances are slim to none as everything has to work correctly. One wrong move anywhere and it's an automatic loss.

For the 2nd scenario, we still have two mafia groups, and the chance that both mafia groups remain through the night is higher, but it's not as bad I don't think. If we manage to lynch one mafia member, then the two mafia groups kill each other, we'd have two townies vs. one mafia. Yes, the ending is the same, but it's slightly easier to get the victory because of how the killing would work.

All in all, it's simple math. And as you agreed yourself Trestain, we have to play this out smart. One wrong move and it's automatic game over.
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Postby dcowboys055 on Thu Feb 15, 2007 4:50 pm

in the last two days roger has two posts. one saying she doesnt know anything and its making her crazy. the second votes onbekende...and thats it.

fos RD
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Postby vgmmaster on Thu Feb 15, 2007 5:01 pm

I agree with Andy's imposter (dcowboys). But in a way, aren't you being very inactive as well cowboy? (Or is that the other game?)

However, it's possible RD may be trying to avoid suspicion as she normally dies quite early if I'm not mistaken. And if she's not dead yet, then one of two things. She's either inactive / trying to slip under the radar or she's mafia. Or both.

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Postby dcowboys055 on Thu Feb 15, 2007 5:17 pm

yeah that was the other game i wasnt posting much in (and payed the price)
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Postby Roger Dodger on Thu Feb 15, 2007 5:38 pm

hey, you guys bandwagoned and got me killed in 2 other games.
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Postby vgmmaster on Thu Feb 15, 2007 5:40 pm

Roger Dodger wrote:hey, you guys bandwagoned and got me killed in 2 other games.


Well, the one game you were mafia. I don't think I'm playing in the other game, so I wouldn't know about that one.
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Postby dcowboys055 on Thu Feb 15, 2007 5:41 pm

hey rd, can you convince me of either

a) your innocence

or

b) somebody else being more fishy
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Postby Telvannia on Thu Feb 15, 2007 5:42 pm

dcowboys055 wrote:in the last two days roger has two posts. one saying she doesnt know anything and its making her crazy. the second votes onbekende...and thats it.

fos RD


since whgen where you ever in this game :?
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Postby dcowboys055 on Thu Feb 15, 2007 5:43 pm

uh, since it started
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Postby vgmmaster on Thu Feb 15, 2007 5:52 pm

Maybe he thinks your Andy because of your avatar. I certainly thought the same thing.
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Postby Roger Dodger on Thu Feb 15, 2007 9:02 pm

first, i have been sick as a dog and, have been not responding to much 2nd, some of us wether sick or not still have to go to work.

you guys can believe what you want but, i've just been trying to get better.

there are nosinister plans here. i just don't have the time.
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Postby Telvannia on Fri Feb 16, 2007 2:34 am

dcowboys055 wrote:uh, since it started


ha
i looked at the avatar

without looking at the name :oops:
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Postby onbekende on Fri Feb 16, 2007 9:30 am

this is really going nowhere

FOS Roger Dodger

voting for me, I return the favor with a FOS as you can explain yourself for what vgm and so said
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Postby Telvannia on Fri Feb 16, 2007 1:44 pm

i will set a deadline at midday on sunday the 18th


Deadline 12:00 Sunday 18th
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Postby vgmmaster on Fri Feb 16, 2007 3:32 pm

Telvannia wrote:i will set a deadline at midday on sunday the 18th


Deadline 12:00 Sunday 18th


I don't believe it was made clear earlier. If we don't have a lynch by deadline, do you kill the person with the most votes or is it an automatic no lynch?
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Postby Telvannia on Fri Feb 16, 2007 4:48 pm

sorry i missed that bit
you get a forced no lynch

so get voting
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Postby onbekende on Fri Feb 16, 2007 5:27 pm

vote Rodger Dodger

we need it, or we kill nobody and mafia probably wins, or we kill you and we hopefully learn from it

darn townie role
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Postby vgmmaster on Fri Feb 16, 2007 5:34 pm

Roger Dodger wrote:first, i have been sick as a dog and, have been not responding to much 2nd, some of us wether sick or not still have to go to work.

you guys can believe what you want but, i've just been trying to get better.

there are nosinister plans here. i just don't have the time.


Sickness is a believable cure, but there's one thing I want to bring up. Seeing how you haven't really posted until now (when oddly enough there is now suspicion on you), makes me wonder if you're using that as an excuse or if you're telling the truth.

One way or the other, don't believe RD for the moment. She may be mafia trying to make up an excuse.

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Postby dcowboys055 on Fri Feb 16, 2007 6:38 pm

gotta step it up we dont have much to work with

vote RD
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Postby vgmmaster on Fri Feb 16, 2007 8:02 pm

I won't be back on before deadline, so

VOTE: RD

I do belive she is scum. I just hope that my gut feeling is correct.
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Postby Roger Dodger on Fri Feb 16, 2007 9:53 pm

UNVOTE- onbekende

this game has gotten ridiculous. i have been doing too many games and it has become hard to keep up.

i've also been sick so, it has made for less posting. sorry about not being here more often .

i am not gonna join in and lynch another citizen. i have confused this game with others & my voting/none voting has reflected that.

maybe i shouldn't play too many games at one time.

[/b]
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Postby dcowboys055 on Fri Feb 16, 2007 9:59 pm

no probably not
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Postby Roger Dodger on Fri Feb 16, 2007 10:27 pm

i went home from work early today. been sick since last weekend.

been doing less RT & online stuff. just took a cold tab so, i should be ready to pass out any moment now. lol. ouch.

i really am not sure where to go or who to vote for. this time we either get a good hit on a bad guy or the town could lose. I don't want that to happen. this is too important.
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Postby Roger Dodger on Fri Feb 16, 2007 10:30 pm

what i'd like to know is why you guys would choose me as a bad guy ? i try to do the right thing here & all i get is bashed.

just for the record, that really sucks.
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