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Calc your win %..........

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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby Robinette on Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:53 pm

Robinette wrote:Hey KoolBak, this is intriguing...

Let me see if i can do this...

50% games... won 3 of 5 4p doubles, won 1 of 4 6p trips, won 0 of 1 quad... so 5 out of 10 = 50% (even)
33% games... won 13 of 24 6p doubles, won 1 of 2 3p games... so 14 out of 26 = 54% (+19%)
25% games... won 7 of 19 4p games... so 37% (+12%)
20% games... won 23 of 55 5p games... so 42% (+22%)
17% games... won 108 of 434 6p games... so 25% (+8%)
14% games... won 2 of 12 7p games... so 17% (+3%)
12.5% games... won 4 of 17 8p games... so 23.5% (+11%)

so where does that put me overall?


knubbel wrote:your overall expected win% is 18,43. So well done! +9,79%!!!
it's much more difficult to get a big difference if you play games with many players. For Example: winning 60% of 2 player games (+10%) is easy while winning 27% of six player games (also +10%) is difficult!


KoolBak wrote:Robin my dear.....the 18.xx figure is correct; your 10% overage is VERY impressive given that it is solely based on your playing prowess in singles six person games.....very nice ;o) Best posted here yet I do believe......


So correct me if i'm wrong...
My expected win % is 18.43%, and i am +9.79%... or 28.22%...
So that makes my win rate 53% higher than expected ( 9.79/18.43 )

Allrightieee then... show me somebody higher, cause i want meet them on the battlefield!
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby Fruitcake on Thu Feb 11, 2010 2:49 am

Robinette wrote:
Robinette wrote:Hey KoolBak, this is intriguing...

Let me see if i can do this...

50% games... won 3 of 5 4p doubles, won 1 of 4 6p trips, won 0 of 1 quad... so 5 out of 10 = 50% (even)
33% games... won 13 of 24 6p doubles, won 1 of 2 3p games... so 14 out of 26 = 54% (+19%)
25% games... won 7 of 19 4p games... so 37% (+12%)
20% games... won 23 of 55 5p games... so 42% (+22%)
17% games... won 108 of 434 6p games... so 25% (+8%)
14% games... won 2 of 12 7p games... so 17% (+3%)
12.5% games... won 4 of 17 8p games... so 23.5% (+11%)

so where does that put me overall?


knubbel wrote:your overall expected win% is 18,43. So well done! +9,79%!!!
it's much more difficult to get a big difference if you play games with many players. For Example: winning 60% of 2 player games (+10%) is easy while winning 27% of six player games (also +10%) is difficult!


KoolBak wrote:Robin my dear.....the 18.xx figure is correct; your 10% overage is VERY impressive given that it is solely based on your playing prowess in singles six person games.....very nice ;o) Best posted here yet I do believe......


So correct me if i'm wrong...
My expected win % is 18.43%, and i am +9.79%... or 28.22%...
So that makes my win rate 53% higher than expected ( 9.79/18.43 )

Allrightieee then... show me somebody higher, cause i want meet them on the battlefield!


Ahhh..the joys of the sample size.
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby natty dread on Thu Feb 11, 2010 2:55 am

so nobody wants to calculate me? :cry:
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby Fruitcake on Thu Feb 11, 2010 3:02 am

natty_dread wrote:so nobody wants to calculate me? :cry:


You don't need map rank.

All you need do is go to Game finder and map rank (button on the page) yourself on the various different styles of game.

I do have an easy ready reckoner on a spreadsheet if you want it. You just plug the numbers in off the map rank and it gives you your weighted % against the average automatically.
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby natty dread on Thu Feb 11, 2010 3:05 am

Meh, I don't have a spreadsheet program installed.
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby Fruitcake on Thu Feb 11, 2010 3:07 am

natty_dread wrote:Meh, I don't have a spreadsheet program installed.


Then work out the percentages by hand. You know...just like you were taught at school.
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby knubbel on Thu Feb 11, 2010 4:08 am

hey guys, calculating the expected winrate is not very complicated.
The Formula is:
Amountof2Playergames/2+3PG/3+4PG/4+5PG/5+6PG/6+7PG/7+8pg/8= E (the expected amount of games that you should win)
the so the expected % is E/numberofgamesfinished
the actual winrate is W/totalnumberofgamesfinished with W=won games
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby natty dread on Thu Feb 11, 2010 4:21 am

Fruitcake wrote:
natty_dread wrote:Meh, I don't have a spreadsheet program installed.


Then work out the percentages by hand. You know...just like you were taught at school.


I would but I'm lazy!
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby chipv on Thu Feb 11, 2010 6:54 am

Fruitcake wrote:
natty_dread wrote:so nobody wants to calculate me? :cry:


You don't need map rank.

All you need do is go to Game finder and map rank (button on the page) yourself on the various different styles of game.

I do have an easy ready reckoner on a spreadsheet if you want it. You just plug the numbers in off the map rank and it gives you your weighted % against the average automatically.


I needed a laugh today, thanks!

It is extremely easy to get this wrong because some games can be counted multiple times accidentally.

(For example 8p singles/termy/assassin and 8p dubs and 8p quads all have 8 players - you would need to make sure these are searched distinctly)

When I get some time, let me see what can be done with... map rank.
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby Qwert on Thu Feb 11, 2010 10:03 am

You don't need map rank.

All you need do is go to Game finder and map rank (button on the page) yourself on the various different styles of game.

I do have an easy ready reckoner on a spreadsheet if you want it. You just plug the numbers in off the map rank and it gives you your weighted % against the average automatically.

:lol:
i notice that to.
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby KoolBak on Thu Feb 11, 2010 11:09 am

As I stated many times and Tutti Frutti reiterated, the GAME FINDER option works just fine. When calc'ing the 4, 6 and 8 person games for SINGLES, you MUST click the STANDARD, TERMINATOR and ASSASSIN boxes to eliminate the team games from the numbers (so not to count them twice).

Loved the sample size jab by the way.....lol.

And Robin, I came up with a slightly different figre for you but still 18.xx%....close enough ;o) Go get em Robin baby!!!
"Gypsy told my fortune...she said that nothin showed...."

Neil Young....Like An Inca

AND:
riskllama wrote:Koolbak wins this thread.
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby Chuuuuck on Thu Feb 11, 2010 4:49 pm

Beckytheblondie wrote:
Chuuuuck wrote:Someone want to check me out? No map rank right now.

Games played Wins Win Percentage Expected Win percentage Factor
1v1 1412 871 0.616855524 1/2 0.1602
3 player 167 68 0.407185629 1/3 0.0126
4 player 484 175 0.361570248 1/4 0.0275
5 player 172 58 0.337209302 1/5 0.0078
6 player 493 136 0.275862069 1/6 0.0186
7 player 35 9 0.257142857 1/7 0.0011
8 player 219 35 0.159817352 1/8 0.0062
dubs (2 teams 627 388 0.618819777 1/2 0.0711
dubs (3 teams) 101 53 0.524752475 1/3 0.0076
dubs (4 teams) 12 2 0.166666667 1/4 0.0007
trips 497 356 0.716297787 1/2 0.0564
quads 189 133 0.703703704 1/2 0.0214
4408 2284 0.51814882 0.3913

You should have won 39.13% of your games Chucky, but you're just too goddamn good. You've won 51.8% of them...



Thanks Becky... +12.7%. I'll take it
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby Georgerx7di on Thu Feb 11, 2010 4:56 pm

KoolBak wrote:Robin my dear.....the 18.xx figure is correct; your 10% overage is VERY impressive given that it is solely based on your playing prowess in singles six person games.....very nice ;o) Best posted here yet I do believe......


robin's a poo poo head
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby ronsizzle on Thu Feb 11, 2010 7:23 pm

hey becky do me. im a ginger...
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby Robinette on Thu Feb 11, 2010 11:52 pm

Fruitcake wrote:
Robinette wrote:
Robinette wrote:Hey KoolBak, this is intriguing...

Let me see if i can do this...

50% games... won 3 of 5 4p doubles, won 1 of 4 6p trips, won 0 of 1 quad... so 5 out of 10 = 50% (even)
33% games... won 13 of 24 6p doubles, won 1 of 2 3p games... so 14 out of 26 = 54% (+19%)
25% games... won 7 of 19 4p games... so 37% (+12%)
20% games... won 23 of 55 5p games... so 42% (+22%)
17% games... won 108 of 434 6p games... so 25% (+8%)
14% games... won 2 of 12 7p games... so 17% (+3%)
12.5% games... won 4 of 17 8p games... so 23.5% (+11%)

so where does that put me overall?


knubbel wrote:your overall expected win% is 18,43. So well done! +9,79%!!!
it's much more difficult to get a big difference if you play games with many players. For Example: winning 60% of 2 player games (+10%) is easy while winning 27% of six player games (also +10%) is difficult!


KoolBak wrote:Robin my dear.....the 18.xx figure is correct; your 10% overage is VERY impressive given that it is solely based on your playing prowess in singles six person games.....very nice ;o) Best posted here yet I do believe......


So correct me if i'm wrong...
My expected win % is 18.43%, and i am +9.79%... or 28.22%...
So that makes my win rate 53% higher than expected ( 9.79/18.43 )

Allrightieee then... show me somebody higher, cause i want meet them on the battlefield!


Ahhh..the joys of the sample size.



Georgerx7di wrote:
KoolBak wrote:Robin my dear.....the 18.xx figure is correct; your 10% overage is VERY impressive given that it is solely based on your playing prowess in singles six person games.....very nice ;o) Best posted here yet I do believe......


robin's a poo poo head



so much sweetness... it must be close to valentines day... O:)

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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby Fruitcake on Fri Feb 12, 2010 4:42 am

Georgerx7di wrote:
KoolBak wrote:Robin my dear.....the 18.xx figure is correct; your 10% overage is VERY impressive given that it is solely based on your playing prowess in singles six person games.....very nice ;o) Best posted here yet I do believe......


robin's a poo poo head


yeah...and teacher's pet.
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby KoolBak on Fri Feb 12, 2010 9:51 am

And female....dunna forget that ;o) lol
"Gypsy told my fortune...she said that nothin showed...."

Neil Young....Like An Inca

AND:
riskllama wrote:Koolbak wins this thread.
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby Robinette on Sat Feb 13, 2010 12:31 am

Fruitcake wrote:
Georgerx7di wrote:
KoolBak wrote:Robin my dear.....the 18.xx figure is correct; your 10% overage is VERY impressive given that it is solely based on your playing prowess in singles six person games.....very nice ;o) Best posted here yet I do believe......


robin's a poo poo head


yeah...and teacher's pet.

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who? Meeeee? O:)



KoolBak wrote:And temperamental....dunna forget that ;o) lol

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wrrrrrrereeeeeerrrr... pffft pffft...
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Re: Calc your win %..........

Postby mgconstruction on Sat Feb 13, 2010 12:47 am

Robin could you do me? er I mean my win % :lol:
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