Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

[Woodruff]

1. Not being a USA citizen I am not a Republican. As an affirmed atheist, revolutionary Dadaist and former member of the DDR Socialist Unity Party

You wrote Dance Dance Revolution?

ATTENTION, WOODRUFF HAS BEEN SPOTTED IN THIS THREAD. PLEASE PROCEED CALMLY TO THE NEAREST EXIT. WALK - DO NOT RUN - TOWARD THE LIGHTED RED PLACARD. DO NOT PANIC. HELP IS EN ROUTE.

Thanks, gang!
- Saxi!

That's right...fear me, much as Saxitoxin clearly does.

[jaimito101]

ok, apparently my point didn't get across last time so i'll bump and fill in the blanks

no one cared, dandelion

yeah well, i was in the assumption that this was an educated debate that was looking at both sides of the case. turns out it was just another girl who cried wolf thread.

[saxitoxin]

ok, apparently my point didn't get across last time so i'll bump and fill in the blanks

no one cared, dandelion

yeah well, i was in the assumption that this was an educated debate that was looking at both sides of the case. turns out it was just another girl who cried wolf thread.

KTHXBAI

[saxitoxin]

A few Greek communist or anarchist protesters thought they would stick it to the man by setting a bank on fire.

They killed 3 people. Stuff like this makes me sick.

And as for tax evasion: Some news group did an aerial surveying of a rich neighborhood to check which houses had pools.

The neighborhood had 400 people claim pools. The surveying found over 16 000 pools. You are suppose to claim a pool if you have one because there's a tax on pools in Greece.

To qualify for retirement - the age was under 60 for men and it was lower for women. Public sector employees received bonuses - no, not performance bonuses for doing a good job, just a bonus for being an employee.

Just absolutely ridiculous. I am for social programs but that is excess to the max.

Great points, Delta - and welcome to the board!

I'm kind of the board "dad" around here, and the unofficial welcome wagon driver! I just want to let you know we are working to build an inclusive, diverse community here on ConquerClub and are thrilled you're a part of it!!!!!!!!!!!

Let's welcome, Delta, gang!
- Saxi!
Unofficial CC Happiness Ombudsman

[thegreekdog]

Questions for the more knowledgeable types:

When economists look at economic disasters like Greece, do they look to what factors caused the disaster?
If they do look at what factors caused the disaster, do they apply those factors to other situations?

My concern here is that this will happen again, either in Greece or somewhere else.

[Trephining]

Of course it will happen again. You have a country where something like 1/3 the workforce are in some form of government employment. They pay generous pensions, and when they run into trouble, some other people come along and pay the bill.

That lesson that teaches is that someone else will pay the bill.

And that doesn't even get to the heart of it all. Look at where the money goes. It goes from the EU/IMF combo to the government of Greece so they can pay their creditors. But their creditors are largely banks. So ultimately this bailout is a bank bailout. It is that simple. The creditors made risky loans to an overburdened government that had no intentions of righting its spending habits, and when default looms, other people come along and get paid. The banks are the winners.

[thegreekdog]

Of course it will happen again. You have a country where something like 1/3 the workforce are in some form of government employment. They pay generous pensions, and when they run into trouble, some other people come along and pay the bill.

That lesson that teaches is that someone else will pay the bill.

And that doesn't even get to the heart of it all. Look at where the money goes. It goes from the EU/IMF combo to the government of Greece so they can pay their creditors. But their creditors are largely banks. So ultimately this bailout is a bank bailout. It is that simple. The creditors made risky loans to an overburdened government that had no intentions of righting its spending habits, and when default looms, other people come along and get paid. The banks are the winners.

That doesn't really answer my questions because I know all that stuff already. What I'm asking is whether there are economists (not governments) who analyze this stuff and then apply it to other instances where they can say "look, what happened to Greece is happening in this country."

[DeltaFormation]

Questions for the more knowledgeable types:

When economists look at economic disasters like Greece, do they look to what factors caused the disaster?
If they do look at what factors caused the disaster, do they apply those factors to other situations?

My concern here is that this will happen again, either in Greece or somewhere else.

It really depends. Greece in a sense has some unique problems but also ones that are similar to that of the rest of Southern Europe.

Southern Europe right now (Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy) is in rough shape. They either have high unemployment or a huge public sector that is incredibly inefficient.

If I were to guess who falls next - it's either Spain or Portugal. Most likely Spain.

Here would be similarities:

Greece, the rest of the PIIGS and the UK are spending like crazy along with other countries.

With Greece, they have a large deficit and a large, inefficient public sector that accounts for around 40% of their GDP - so there's no way they are going to 'grow their way out of this' (basically if your economy is growing really, really fast - if you have deficits, as long as they're not too big Debt/GDP ratio goes down).

Portugal has a similar problem to Greece, they have a large deficit and a large inefficient public sector.

Spain on the other hand has unemployment at over 20%, they can't devalue their currency (so it's cheaper to set up a factory/telecommunications center/whatever) because it's a European currency so either the government needs to spend a ton of money (deficits) or the private sector needs to magically set up in Spain and give them jobs.

That's a real simplification because there's so much more detail in each country.

You can already feel the tremors of what is about to come - right now Spain is selling or has sold a few (few meaning a lot but in the big picture of the deficit, not a lot) bonds and their rates are slowly marching upwards.

[thegreekdog]

Questions for the more knowledgeable types:

When economists look at economic disasters like Greece, do they look to what factors caused the disaster?
If they do look at what factors caused the disaster, do they apply those factors to other situations?

My concern here is that this will happen again, either in Greece or somewhere else.

It really depends. Greece in a sense has some unique problems but also ones that are similar to that of the rest of Southern Europe.

Southern Europe right now (Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy) is in rough shape. They either have high unemployment or a huge public sector that is incredibly inefficient.

If I were to guess who falls next - it's either Spain or Portugal. Most likely Spain.

You can already feel the tremors of what is about to come - right now Spain is selling or has sold a few (few meaning a lot but in the big picture of the deficit, not a lot) bonds and their rates are slowly marching upwards.

So Spain might be trying to avoid the same disaster as Greece? That's encouraging.

[DeltaFormation]

So Spain might be trying to avoid the same disaster as Greece? That's encouraging.

We'll see though, there's only so much Spain can do. It's nice that they are making an effort before it reaches a catastrophe like what is happening with Greece.

Will it work? Only time will give you that answer.

[DeltaFormation]

even so i hear some say that then greece is under the control of the US? US is the biggest net contributor indeed but with only 17% is hardly in control of anything. furthermore the 30 billion is but miniscule in comparison to the 400 billion dollars china accumulates yearly off american imports!

The IMF is not democratic when it comes to a major decision like bailing out a country. With 17% of the vote, the USA essentially has a veto and can block any major 'legislation' coming out of the IMF (Important to note that it is major stuff, not some of the more minor decisions).

[saxitoxin]

So Spain might be trying to avoid the same disaster as Greece? That's encouraging.

We'll see though, there's only so much Spain can do. It's nice that they are making an effort before it reaches a catastrophe like what is happening with Greece.

Will it work? Only time will give you that answer.

Today's election in the UK is going to be tits with this headline in the Guardian:

"UK budget deficit 'to surpass Greece's as worst in EU'"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010 ... han-greece

If I were the US / Canada / Japan I'd be hoping for a hung parliament that would further slide the UK into the pit of despair.

[DeltaFormation]

Today's election in the UK is going to be tits with this headline in the Guardian:

"UK budget deficit 'to surpass Greece's as worst in EU'"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010 ... han-greece

If I were the US / Canada / Japan I'd be hoping for a hung parliament that would further slide the UK into the pit of despair.

Why do you think that would be a good thing for the US/Canada/Japan?

I personally see it as a negative thing, especially for the US.

[saxitoxin]

Today's election in the UK is going to be tits with this headline in the Guardian:

"UK budget deficit 'to surpass Greece's as worst in EU'"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010 ... han-greece

If I were the US / Canada / Japan I'd be hoping for a hung parliament that would further slide the UK into the pit of despair.

Why do you think that would be a good thing for the US/Canada/Japan?

I personally see it as a negative thing, especially for the US.

That seems to be CW. However, IMO, the service-oriented nature of the British economy should mean it can fade into the night with relatively minimized (as opposed to minimal) global repercussions. A massive revaluation of the sterling should lead to a retreat from the bulwark of safety the UK can offer with the flexibility of a non-Eurozone integrated, independent currency and default to North America and Asia that, while equally as troubled, enjoy the benefit of sovereign currency control.

But that's just ol' Saxi jibber-jabberin'!

[saxitoxin]

Greece is "on the brink of the abyss", President Karolos Papoulias has warned.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8663734.stm

[alex951]

Greece is "on the brink of the abyss", President Karolos Papoulias has warned.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8663734.stm

i can click the link

[DeltaFormation]

That seems to be CW. However, IMO, the service-oriented nature of the British economy should mean it can fade into the night with relatively minimized (as opposed to minimal) global repercussions. A massive revaluation of the sterling should lead to a retreat from the bulwark of safety the UK can offer with the flexibility of a non-Eurozone integrated, independent currency and default to North America and Asia that, while equally as troubled, enjoy the benefit of sovereign currency control.

But that's just ol' Saxi jibber-jabberin'!

It makes a lot of sense. But I think a country like the UK with massive private AND public debt basically failing (not really but basically) would lead to incredible volatility throughout the world only exacerbated by attempts to rescue the UK.

And when you look at the situation of the UK compared to the US. The US is in a very similar position, not as bad but a very similar situation nonetheless.

And on top of this - you have huge unfunded pensions across the EU that would come due as their population starts to retire and - well - die off.

It just seems like the perfect storm that's really going to hurt. I mean sure money may flow in to some markets where some stability is seen but on a whole - a scenario where the UK has serious problems seems like it would be a negative even for the countries where the money is flowing to.

Unless you see an orderly decline in Sterling, I personally don't see how that would be possible with a hung parliament that for the next few years will do nothing to solve the problem.

[saxitoxin]

i can click the link

Way to go!

[saxitoxin]

That seems to be CW. However, IMO, the service-oriented nature of the British economy should mean it can fade into the night with relatively minimized (as opposed to minimal) global repercussions. A massive revaluation of the sterling should lead to a retreat from the bulwark of safety the UK can offer with the flexibility of a non-Eurozone integrated, independent currency and default to North America and Asia that, while equally as troubled, enjoy the benefit of sovereign currency control.

But that's just ol' Saxi jibber-jabberin'!

It makes a lot of sense. But I think a country like the UK with massive private AND public debt basically failing (not really but basically) would lead to incredible volatility throughout the world only exacerbated by attempts to rescue the UK.

And when you look at the situation of the UK compared to the US. The US is in a very similar position, not as bad but a very similar situation nonetheless.

And on top of this - you have huge unfunded pensions across the EU that would come due as their population starts to retire and - well - die off.

It just seems like the perfect storm that's really going to hurt. I mean sure money may flow in to some markets where some stability is seen but on a whole a scenario where the UK has serious problems seems like it would be a negative even for the countries where the money is flowing to.

You make germane points!

And the US and Canada are certainly not immune from the mess of underfunded pensions. The only bright spot, perhaps, is that those obligations are held in greater percentage by the state and provincial governments, as opposed to the federal governments. That's no bright spot to those who may be left without them - or those left to foot the bill for them - but one might think would promote greater market stability if it wasn't an obligation held by the central circulating authority.

[DeltaFormation]

You make germane points!

And the US and Canada are certainly not immune from the mess of underfunded pensions. The only bright spot, perhaps, is that those obligations are held in greater percentage by the state and provincial governments, as opposed to the federal governments. That's no bright spot to those who may be left without them - or those left to foot the bill for them - but one might think would promote greater market stability if it wasn't an obligation held by the central circulating authority.

It's also worth noting Canada greatly improved its funding in the 1990s.

And that the United States will not see the large decline in population that many European countries will see, along with Canada and Japan.

[saxitoxin]

You make germane points!

And the US and Canada are certainly not immune from the mess of underfunded pensions. The only bright spot, perhaps, is that those obligations are held in greater percentage by the state and provincial governments, as opposed to the federal governments. That's no bright spot to those who may be left without them - or those left to foot the bill for them - but one might think would promote greater market stability if it wasn't an obligation held by the central circulating authority.

It's also worth noting Canada greatly improved its funding in the 1990s.

And that the United States will not see the large decline in population that many European countries will see, along with Canada and Japan.

Yes, though, with 83% of Canadian exports going to the US I think it's reasonable to address the two countries as a single economic unit. Canada doesn't have the trade diversity to operate as a functionally independent economy.

[alex951]

i can click the link

Way to go!

dam typo typo **can't

[Woodruff]

i can click the link

Way to go!

dam typo typo **can't

<laughing out loud> I was wondering why you made a point of telling us. You sounded so proud!

[tzor]

Indexes down 3 percent after plunging

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks were down more than 3 percent on Thursday afternoon after briefly nosediving, with the Nasdaq at one point down more than 9 percent and the S&P 500 and Dow briefly falling into negative territory for the year, as worries about contagion from Greece's debt problems mounted.

That is putting it mildly. We had a brief panic in the market; the Dow went from -4% for the day to -8% in a matter of minutes around 2:45 EDT and then before 3:00 EDT it’s back up to where it was before it nose dived. Twitter feed going crazy on the stock level.

[thegreekdog]

While this dog may be Greek, I disavow any knowledge of his participation in protests.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery ... =362290874