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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby AAFitz on Sun Sep 05, 2010 7:42 am

Master Fenrir wrote:
notyou2 wrote:Fitz, I am truly sorry. I couldn't just write one word after the multitudinous post where you rambled on and on...and on.

I'm gonna miss all those posts I never read.

Take care.

Not a cool way to troll Fitz's thread. Don't do that again.

I agree with almost everything you wrote, Fitz. I don't know you very well, but you're one of several long-time players who have succumbed to the STDice, several of whom are my CC buds, and it just kinda sucks to watch it happen. I'll have my people contact Flava Flav to spill some champagne for you.


Thanks man, but dont worry about the trolling. Its expected, and no doubt deserved. I made a negative thread here, I can only accept what I get for it. Last year Id have been the one saying the dice were random. Now that I need 5 to kill a 1 on every other game, I just cant adjust to the change.

Ironically, I just spilled some champagne last night as well, and from the feeling in my head...not enough.
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby KoolBak on Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:26 am

I had the same problem with the Rye the night before....damn it hurts these days....lol.

Fun reading the rplies here ;o)
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AND:
riskllama wrote:Koolbak wins this thread.
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby mpjh on Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:00 am

I take it gannable is leaving to join Bob Dole
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby Robinette on Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:45 am

This is such a smoke screen...

Do you REALLY expect us to believe you are leaving because you have finally experienced the terrible woes of a horrendous dice streak?

You probably don't even realize it yet, but this is a sub-conscience reaction to the disappointment you have for the people that you put into total power 2 years ago... This is happening on game sites all over the country...

But come November, your dice will have a chance to be prosperous once again...

So hang in there Fitzie baby... and extend you're Sept 10 date to Nov 2 when we kick the dice robbing bums out!

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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby stahrgazer on Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:53 am

gannable wrote:they're must be something in the dice program that causes hot streaks then cold streaks


There is. The program doesn't reset with the full 50,000 (or whatever number of potential rolls are programmed now) until all the rolls are used. That means, if the first 49,950 rolls happened to hit all the "good rolls" then the next 50 rolls will be all the leftover crud until the analyzer resets to the full number of roll options, at which point you might get lucky enough to get some of the "good rolls" again. Similarly, if all the crud rolls got used up, a player will have a "hot streak" at least until the analyzer resets to the full amount.

The only way to break this and make it purely random is to have a program where only 1 of each option is programmed into the choice set; and have that full number of options reset for every roll.

But no, for those who wanted the "short version" - AA isn't leaving over dice, he got fed up with CC politics, specifically, mod behavior. The topic that he witnessed the politics in just happened to be dice.

"the official reaction to discussion of it (the dice), which of course wasnt a discussion, but a flaming of any by mods that were mentioning their perception of the change which was announced. But then Professionalism has never been all that important to you has it?"
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby Metsfanmax on Sun Sep 05, 2010 2:09 pm

stahrgazer wrote:There is. The program doesn't reset with the full 50,000 (or whatever number of potential rolls are programmed now) until all the rolls are used. That means, if the first 49,950 rolls happened to hit all the "good rolls" then the next 50 rolls will be all the leftover crud until the analyzer resets to the full number of roll options, at which point you might get lucky enough to get some of the "good rolls" again. Similarly, if all the crud rolls got used up, a player will have a "hot streak" at least until the analyzer resets to the full amount.

The only way to break this and make it purely random is to have a program where only 1 of each option is programmed into the choice set; and have that full number of options reset for every roll.


This doesn't really make any sense; lack stated that when the end of the list is reached, you start over from the beginning. That means that, functionally, the numbers you get come from an infinite list with a period of 50,000 numbers. Obviously it's possible that the first 49,950 numbers, if somehow read sequentially, will give an attacker really good rolls, but there's only a very small chance that when you get to the beginning of the list again, you'd hit the same "sweet spot" and get the same results.

It's meaningless to say that the last 50 rolls are "crud rolls," because that type of description can only be true for a given starting place on the list. In all likelihood, you could shift your starting position over by just one number in those last 50 rolls, and get average rolls again.
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby gannable on Sun Sep 05, 2010 2:20 pm

if thats true then the dice program is truly garbage.
it makes you go back and forth like a yo yo in the point totals
what is the point in playing then?




stahrgazer wrote:
gannable wrote:they're must be something in the dice program that causes hot streaks then cold streaks


There is. The program doesn't reset with the full 50,000 (or whatever number of potential rolls are programmed now) until all the rolls are used. That means, if the first 49,950 rolls happened to hit all the "good rolls" then the next 50 rolls will be all the leftover crud until the analyzer resets to the full number of roll options, at which point you might get lucky enough to get some of the "good rolls" again. Similarly, if all the crud rolls got used up, a player will have a "hot streak" at least until the analyzer resets to the full amount.

The only way to break this and make it purely random is to have a program where only 1 of each option is programmed into the choice set; and have that full number of options reset for every roll.

But no, for those who wanted the "short version" - AA isn't leaving over dice, he got fed up with CC politics, specifically, mod behavior. The topic that he witnessed the politics in just happened to be dice.

"the official reaction to discussion of it (the dice), which of course wasnt a discussion, but a flaming of any by mods that were mentioning their perception of the change which was announced. But then Professionalism has never been all that important to you has it?"
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby natty dread on Sun Sep 05, 2010 2:52 pm

The current dice algorithm doesn't go through the 50k numbers in sequence, instead it picks a random spot in the list of 50000 where it reads a dice roll.

The 50k list is also updated every hour.
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby stahrgazer on Sun Sep 05, 2010 2:59 pm

natty_dread wrote:The current dice algorithm doesn't go through the 50k numbers in sequence, instead it picks a random spot in the list of 50000 where it reads a dice roll.

The 50k list is also updated every hour.


I realize it picks a random spot, but from what Lack said, it picks the same random startpoint for all rolls combined, not just the rolls for a single player. So if it happens to pick the sweet spot for the first several thousand rolls, then what's left IS crud.

And okay, from what you say they reset the list on the hour, rather than when the numbers are used up; you still have a potential to have all the "good rolls" used before the reset (or all the bad rolls used before the reset).

Now, Mets, while the reset of course won't guarantee you start at the same spot - because again that's chosen randomly - but that also explains why dice streaks end.
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby AAFitz on Sun Sep 05, 2010 7:51 pm

Robinette wrote:This is such a smoke screen...

Do you REALLY expect us to believe you are leaving because you have finally experienced the terrible woes of a horrendous dice streak?

You probably don't even realize it yet, but this is a sub-conscience reaction to the disappointment you have for the people that you put into total power 2 years ago... This is happening on game sites all over the country...

But come November, your dice will have a chance to be prosperous once again...

So hang in there Fitzie baby... and extend you're Sept 10 date to Nov 2 when we kick the dice robbing bums out!

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;)


No, absolutely not. I have mentioned they put me over the top, and more the reaction in the discussion thread, which as I said, was an overreaction and misunderstanding on my part. But the sept date is actually October 10, you scared me for a second there. No way I finish these games in 5 days.
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby natty dread on Sun Sep 05, 2010 7:58 pm

stahrgazer wrote:I realize it picks a random spot, but from what Lack said, it picks the same random startpoint for all rolls combined, not just the rolls for a single player. So if it happens to pick the sweet spot for the first several thousand rolls, then what's left IS crud.

And okay, from what you say they reset the list on the hour, rather than when the numbers are used up; you still have a potential to have all the "good rolls" used before the reset (or all the bad rolls used before the reset).


Nope, because the numbers don't get "used up", ie. the numbers aren't discarded after they are selected. The algorithm just picks a spot in the 50k list at random, and uses those numbers, so it is possible to get the same numbers again.
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby Army of GOD on Sun Sep 05, 2010 8:03 pm

Is this the longest farewell thread on record?
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby stahrgazer on Sun Sep 05, 2010 8:08 pm

natty_dread wrote:
stahrgazer wrote:I realize it picks a random spot, but from what Lack said, it picks the same random startpoint for all rolls combined, not just the rolls for a single player. So if it happens to pick the sweet spot for the first several thousand rolls, then what's left IS crud.

And okay, from what you say they reset the list on the hour, rather than when the numbers are used up; you still have a potential to have all the "good rolls" used before the reset (or all the bad rolls used before the reset).


Nope, because the numbers don't get "used up", ie. the numbers aren't discarded after they are selected. The algorithm just picks a spot in the 50k list at random, and uses those numbers, so it is possible to get the same numbers again.


Then something changed from the last time Lack posted about it, because his post said the available numberset refreshes after they were all used up.
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby AAFitz on Sun Sep 05, 2010 8:22 pm

Army of GOD wrote:Is this the longest farewell thread on record?


I doubt it, but even if it is, it doesnt mean much. I cheated by slipping the dice discussion in there. And perhaps by being an ass too. :D
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby mpjh on Sun Sep 05, 2010 8:29 pm

Now you have to stay.
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby Robinette on Sun Sep 05, 2010 8:33 pm

AAFitz wrote:
Robinette wrote:This is such a smoke screen...

Do you REALLY expect us to believe you are leaving because you have finally experienced the terrible woes of a horrendous dice streak?

You probably don't even realize it yet, but this is a sub-conscience reaction to the disappointment you have for the people that you put into total power 2 years ago... This is happening on game sites all over the country...

But come November, your dice will have a chance to be prosperous once again...

So hang in there Fitzie baby... and extend you're Sept 10 date to Nov 2 when we kick the dice robbing bums out!

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;)


No, absolutely not. I have mentioned they put me over the top, and more the reaction in the discussion thread, which as I said, was an overreaction and misunderstanding on my part. But the sept date is actually October 10, you scared me for a second there. No way I finish these games in 5 days.



That's the funny thing about the subconscious...
You never really know for sure what it's thinking, you only THINK you know...

But what i DO know, is that you missed my point entirely...

although, your subconscious likely got it, and is laughing with me even now! ;)
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby Metsfanmax on Sun Sep 05, 2010 8:56 pm

stahrgazer wrote:
natty_dread wrote:
stahrgazer wrote:I realize it picks a random spot, but from what Lack said, it picks the same random startpoint for all rolls combined, not just the rolls for a single player. So if it happens to pick the sweet spot for the first several thousand rolls, then what's left IS crud.

And okay, from what you say they reset the list on the hour, rather than when the numbers are used up; you still have a potential to have all the "good rolls" used before the reset (or all the bad rolls used before the reset).


Nope, because the numbers don't get "used up", ie. the numbers aren't discarded after they are selected. The algorithm just picks a spot in the 50k list at random, and uses those numbers, so it is possible to get the same numbers again.


Then something changed from the last time Lack posted about it, because his post said the available numberset refreshes after they were all used up.


The last time Lack posted about it was in the announcement thread, and he said that he gets a new list "as often as the random.org quota allows," or something like that.
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby fumandomuerte on Tue Sep 07, 2010 3:09 am

Always loved your devotion to the game, specially whe you were helping cairnswk with Das Schloss!
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby AAFitz on Tue Sep 07, 2010 8:22 am

Robinette wrote:That's the funny thing about the subconscious...
You never really know for sure what it's thinking, you only THINK you know...

But what i DO know, is that you missed my point entirely...

although, your subconscious likely got it, and is laughing with me even now! ;)


No, I got it of course, and not just on a subconscious level. I let it stand and simply added my real motivations. :D
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby AAFitz on Tue Sep 07, 2010 8:25 am

fumandomuerte wrote:Always loved your devotion to the game, specially whe you were helping cairnswk with Das Schloss!


Thank you, and at times, I really have tried to add some improvements. With Das Schloss however, it was completely selfishly motivated, because I loved the map, and simply wanted it to be as good as it could be, so I could play it. Cairnswk deserves all the credit on that map. All I did was play it a lot, and offer some real basic ideas. I do admit though, the changes he made sure evened out the map, and made the options nearly unlimited for how to play it.
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby laughingcavalier on Thu Sep 09, 2010 3:49 am

EJ Thribb wrote:
So.
Farewell then
aafitz

You posted
In every
Important thread.

Sometimes wise
Often clever
The things you said

They had
A quip
At the end

Mr Changsha trolled
You. You did not
Seem to mind

To AoN
You were not
Half so kind

I never beat you at 2.1
But you beat me

Now you are gone

My friend Keith
Says there
Should be a quip at the end.
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby AAFitz on Thu Sep 09, 2010 8:15 am

laughingcavalier wrote:
EJ Thribb wrote:
So.
Farewell then
aafitz

You posted
In every
Important thread.

Sometimes wise
Often clever
The things you said

They had
A quip
At the end

Mr Changsha trolled
You. You did not
Seem to mind

To AoN
You were not
Half so kind

I never beat you at 2.1
But you beat me

Now you are gone

My friend Keith
Says there
Should be a quip at the end.


Thank you for that. It does of course mean Ill be thinking in rhymes for the rest of the day, but it will be worth it.....for me. Maybe not for those that have to hear the rhymes as much. :D
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby ronsizzle on Thu Sep 16, 2010 10:51 pm

are you still here fitzy?
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby Woodruff on Thu Sep 16, 2010 11:11 pm

stahrgazer wrote:
gannable wrote:they're must be something in the dice program that causes hot streaks then cold streaks


There is. The program doesn't reset with the full 50,000 (or whatever number of potential rolls are programmed now) until all the rolls are used. That means, if the first 49,950 rolls happened to hit all the "good rolls" then the next 50 rolls will be all the leftover crud until the analyzer resets to the full number of roll options, at which point you might get lucky enough to get some of the "good rolls" again. Similarly, if all the crud rolls got used up, a player will have a "hot streak" at least until the analyzer resets to the full amount.


That really doesn't follow, from a logic perspective. Even if the last 50 rolls are "crud rolls", your opponent is drawing his rolls from those same 50 pieces of crud that you are.
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Re: I think this is probably it.

Postby stahrgazer on Sat Sep 18, 2010 2:24 am

Woodruff wrote:That really doesn't follow, from a logic perspective. Even if the last 50 rolls are "crud rolls", your opponent is drawing his rolls from those same 50 pieces of crud that you are.


Not while you're rolling, silly, except in freestyle. By the time you're done, 1500 (some number) other rolls have occurred by other players on the site, so the opponent could get a reset list.

I think I've had five games total where both parties agreed the dice were fairly balanced for both sides.
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