HA's 200th Tourney (Josko.ri Wins)

[ElricTheGreat]

Please add more Canada or USA games ... Sunny, Flat, Unlimited Fort ... thank you kind sir !!!

[drunkmonkey]

HA,
When you come on and post here to say that none of the guesses up to your post are correct, then does that reset the guessing game? Meaning: people who have guessed their two guesses prior to your post are allowed to guess again? Please clarify. Thanks!

No it does not reset your previous guesses--just letting everyone know we don't have a winner.

Well, in that case I don't think it's really fair to the people who posted their guesses earlier. Once you post here that there is no winner yet, then future guessers can simply go look at all the numbers that ARE NOT the correct guess and choose from the remaining numbers! So every time you post that there is no winner as of yet, then the odds of guessing correctly improve considerably for those who guess after your post. Don't you think this does not give fair advantage to everyone?

I vote for the reset guess options if you are going to post that there are no winners. Or simply set a time at which time you look at all the guesses up until that point and if no correct guesses then you resort to your plan B.

What? You should always be guessing from the remaining numbers. Only 1 person can win.

[ElricTheGreat]

3/11 1:25pm--I am going to make 250 games over the next hour to two hours. Now is your chance to get the map and settings you want--the players choice part of this round. I will take requests by pm only for this--ten games for each pm I receive. Do not send me something that will take more than two weeks to finish though. I am still taking guesses for the 1-300 If no one gets it right by tonight I will do a different game for the bounty.

Different game ... try different MAP !!! loll

I do not even want to try win so that I get creamed in Arms Race !!!

How about these Bonus Games being on RANDOM maps to make it at least a fair chance for the challenger to get a map once in awhile?

[Dukasaur]

ok I'm going to guess 117

[General Roy]

I'm debating with myself if I want to participate or not. So well, here is my two pennies worth:
-47 exp (i pi) and -75 exp (i pi)

I realise none of them are even close, but so what.

If you wonder what those two numbers are, google exp (i pi) and see what you get.

[hondacbr]

What? You should always be guessing from the remaining numbers. Only 1 person can win.

Do you not get it? I think you are very confused cause your post makes no sense whatsoever. When did I say that more than one person should/can win?

Let me break down for you:

The point I am trying to make is that without HA's posts about "no winner up to here" everyone has the same odds of making a guess which is 1/300= 0.0033 ...
BUT when HA comes on the thread and posts that up until his post there are no correct guesses yet then this changes the odds for the remaining players. Let's say up until his post of "no winner up to here", there have been 151 incorrect guesses. Now this changes the odds for the remaining players --> 300-151=149
Now the new odds have improved for the remaining players: 1/149=0.0067 ...
So I believe everyone should be playing with the same initial odds. If you are bad in math then just skip this post.

[ElricTheGreat]

I have been sitting hitting the refresh key for almost 30 minutes and have not noticed any new games added ... did I already miss the boat? Yr 2 hour window is almost up ...

If you add some of the Canada games as requested below ... can you please reserve one of them for me .. I have to leave for a bit and would really appreciate it ...

I already have 2 strikes in this round !!! lolll

[Dukasaur]

ok I'm going to guess 117

and 192

Yeah, that will do it.... 117 and 192.







.

[Dukasaur]

The point I am trying to make is that without HA's posts about "no winner up to here" everyone has the same odds of making a guess which is 1/300= 0.0033 ...
BUT when HA comes on the thread and posts that up until his post there are no correct guesses yet then this changes the odds for the remaining players. Let's say up until his post of "no winner up to here", there have been 151 incorrect guesses. Now this changes the odds for the remaining players --> 300-151=149
Now the new odds have improved for the remaining players: 1/149=0.0067 ...
So I believe everyone should be playing with the same initial odds. If you are bad in math then just skip this post.

If you see someone has already guessed 96, or whatever, then you are not going to guess 96. It doesn't matter if HA makes a fresh announcement or not. Either way, the remaining pool of numbers to choose from keeps dwindling, so in effect your odds improve.

[drunkmonkey]

What? You should always be guessing from the remaining numbers. Only 1 person can win.

Do you not get it? I think you are very confused cause your post makes no sense whatsoever. When did I say that more than one person should/can win?

Let me break down for you:

The point I am trying to make is that without HA's posts about "no winner up to here" everyone has the same odds of making a guess which is 2/300= 0.0033 ...
BUT when HA comes on the thread and posts that up until his post there are no correct guesses yet then this changes the odds for the remaining players. Let's say up until his post of "no winner up to here", there have been 151 incorrect guesses. Now this changes the odds for the remaining players --> 300-151=149
Now the new odds have improved for the remaining players: 1/149=0.0067 ...
So I believe everyone should be playing with the same initial odds. If you are bad in math then just skip this post.

Please cut the condescending attitude, as you're completely in the wrong here. The first person has 300 numbers to guess from. The second has 298, the third has 296, and so on.

-If the first person was right, the second has a 0% chance of winning. If the first person was wrong, the second person has a 2/298 chance of winning.
-If one of the first 2 people was right, the third has a 0% chance of winning. If the first 2 people were wrong, the third person has a 2/296 chance of winning.

Since you cannot guess a number that someone else picked, knowing whether or not they picked the right number has absolutely no effect on your odds of winning.

[HighlanderAttack]

I've already played my 3 this round DOH. I'd like to guess 1 and 300 and if I win can I alternatively a) use the bounty in Round 4 or b) give the bounty game to someone else.

You would be able to give it away for this round--sorry --since it is scheduled for this round

[HighlanderAttack]

I will consider this for next time. Sound like a good idea.

HA,
When you come on and post here to say that none of the guesses up to your post are correct, then does that reset the guessing game? Meaning: people who have guessed their two guesses prior to your post are allowed to guess again? Please clarify. Thanks!

No it does not reset your previous guesses--just letting everyone know we don't have a winner.

Well, in that case I don't think it's really fair to the people who posted their guesses earlier. Once you post here that there is no winner yet, then future guessers can simply go look at all the numbers that ARE NOT the correct guess and choose from the remaining numbers! So every time you post that there is no winner as of yet, then the odds of guessing correctly improve considerably for those who guess after your post. Don't you think this does not give fair advantage to everyone?

I vote for the reset guess options if you are going to post that there are no winners. Or simply set a time at which time you look at all the guesses up until that point and if no correct guesses then you resort to your plan B.

[HighlanderAttack]

Mainly because they are the ones that pay the winner. If you can't beat them then someone else gets a chance to win.

3/11 1:25pm--I am going to make 250 games over the next hour to two hours. Now is your chance to get the map and settings you want--the players choice part of this round. I will take requests by pm only for this--ten games for each pm I receive. Do not send me something that will take more than two weeks to finish though. I am still taking guesses for the 1-300 If no one gets it right by tonight I will do a different game for the bounty.

Different game ... try different MAP !!! loll

I do not even want to try win so that I get creamed in Arms Race !!!

How about these Bonus Games being on RANDOM maps to make it at least a fair chance for the challenger to get a map once in awhile?

[HighlanderAttack]

I have been sitting hitting the refresh key for almost 30 minutes and have not noticed any new games added ... did I already miss the boat? Yr 2 hour window is almost up ...

If you add some of the Canada games as requested below ... can you please reserve one of them for me .. I have to leave for a bit and would really appreciate it ...

I already have 2 strikes in this round !!! lolll

The reason could be that I requested a pm for these games--I am just now checking the thread.

[king15]

I will consider this for next time. Sound like a good idea.

HA,
When you come on and post here to say that none of the guesses up to your post are correct, then does that reset the guessing game? Meaning: people who have guessed their two guesses prior to your post are allowed to guess again? Please clarify. Thanks!

No it does not reset your previous guesses--just letting everyone know we don't have a winner.

Well, in that case I don't think it's really fair to the people who posted their guesses earlier. Once you post here that there is no winner yet, then future guessers can simply go look at all the numbers that ARE NOT the correct guess and choose from the remaining numbers! So every time you post that there is no winner as of yet, then the odds of guessing correctly improve considerably for those who guess after your post. Don't you think this does not give fair advantage to everyone?

I vote for the reset guess options if you are going to post that there are no winners. Or simply set a time at which time you look at all the guesses up until that point and if no correct guesses then you resort to your plan B.

HA
I'm not at all trying to say that you shouldn't consider this for next time. But I would like to point out that as was stated in a post a little while ago just because you say that no one has won yet that does NOT effect the odds whatsoever. I am a math major and I know a lot about odds and odds are not effected by you stating that no one has won yet as this quote right here shows:

-If the first person was right, the second has a 0% chance of winning. If the first person was wrong, the second person has a 2/298 chance of winning.
-If one of the first 2 people was right, the third has a 0% chance of winning. If the first 2 people were wrong, the third person has a 2/296 chance of winning.

Since you cannot guess a number that someone else picked, knowing whether or not they picked the right number has absolutely no effect on your odds of winning.

thanks drunk monkey for the quote.

[Frued1]

What? You should always be guessing from the remaining numbers. Only 1 person can win.

Do you not get it? I think you are very confused cause your post makes no sense whatsoever. When did I say that more than one person should/can win?

Let me break down for you:

The point I am trying to make is that without HA's posts about "no winner up to here" everyone has the same odds of making a guess which is 1/300= 0.0033 ...
BUT when HA comes on the thread and posts that up until his post there are no correct guesses yet then this changes the odds for the remaining players. Let's say up until his post of "no winner up to here", there have been 151 incorrect guesses. Now this changes the odds for the remaining players --> 300-151=149
Now the new odds have improved for the remaining players: 1/149=0.0067 ...
So I believe everyone should be playing with the same initial odds. If you are bad in math then just skip this post.

I think you don't quite get it. There is some strategy involved here because the first person has a 1/150 chance. The second person has 1/150 chance as well, but can only guess from the remaining 298 numbers because whoever guesses first wins. By that example, you must always assume that the winning number has not yet been picked (if it has, then no point in guessing). Even without those posts from HA, anyone who guesses later will guess a number not already picked, so those posts don't impact the outcome. So do you make 1 guess, and hold the other for later, or do you use them both now? Or, do you wait and hope that no one guesses it before you choose to use your guesses. They may have a better chance at the end, but if you and I are thinking the same number and it is the correct number, whoever guesses first wins (100%) and whoever guesses second loses (0%). That has to be factored in. So, you want best odds (by YOUR logic)? Wait for 149 people to each guess 2 numbers, then you guess the last 2. 100% guaranteed that you will win

[king15]

What? You should always be guessing from the remaining numbers. Only 1 person can win.

Do you not get it? I think you are very confused cause your post makes no sense whatsoever. When did I say that more than one person should/can win?

Let me break down for you:

The point I am trying to make is that without HA's posts about "no winner up to here" everyone has the same odds of making a guess which is 1/300= 0.0033 ...
BUT when HA comes on the thread and posts that up until his post there are no correct guesses yet then this changes the odds for the remaining players. Let's say up until his post of "no winner up to here", there have been 151 incorrect guesses. Now this changes the odds for the remaining players --> 300-151=149
Now the new odds have improved for the remaining players: 1/149=0.0067 ...
So I believe everyone should be playing with the same initial odds. If you are bad in math then just skip this post.

I think you don't quite get it. There is some strategy involved here because the first person has a 1/150 chance. The second person has 1/150 chance as well, but can only guess from the remaining 298 numbers because whoever guesses first wins. By that example, you must always assume that the winning number has not yet been picked (if it has, then no point in guessing). Even without those posts from HA, anyone who guesses later will guess a number not already picked, so those posts don't impact the outcome. So do you make 1 guess, and hold the other for later, or do you use them both now? Or, do you wait and hope that no one guesses it before you choose to use your guesses. They may have a better chance at the end, but if you and I are thinking the same number and it is the correct number, whoever guesses first wins (100%) and whoever guesses second loses (0%). That has to be factored in. So, you want best odds (by YOUR logic)? Wait for 149 people to each guess 2 numbers, then you guess the last 2. 100% guaranteed that you will win

Your exactly right Frued1! thank you

[Frued1]

yes, which means that whoever guesses first always has a better chance to get it first. So by waiting a day or two, you may have fewer numbers from which to choose, but you also run the risk of a zero percent chance because the number was already chosen. Which means the contest should remain as is. If you want to have better odds after many people have guessed, then it is up to you to take the risk and not make your own guess.

[Tviorr]

Aside from the stats, its part of the "game"

Everyone is free to guess or wait. - I believe you can even guess once and hold off on your second guess until later?

I agree the odds dont change when you take into account that people waiting run the risk of people gambling and betting earlier were in fact right.

That the immediate odds have "changed" as some of the wrong answers have been specified doesnt change that theres is no gain by waiting as every guess doesnt just take away a wrong number but also subjects the waitor to the risk that its the right number.

And of course even if that wasnt the case, everyone can choose when to gamble and when to wait.

The fact that the option to wait is there, prolongs the game and opens it to people with less online time as some will gamble on the pool of numbers diminishing before they gamble with their own guesses. - I find this to be a bonus and would prefer the guessing game to stay with the current setup. If HA wants to change it, that will of course be just dandy too, I just want to put my 2 cents in that its working quite well as is.

I think that a guessing game will be somewhat hard to get a perspective on if it reset itself every time HA got online (that is if all the guesses were thrown out, a new winning number was picked and everyone got to guess again, which is the only way I can think that a reset would make sense.)


As an alternative to the guessing game, you could do a guessing game for the following round whenever Nightstrike beats a challenger so theres another bonus chance open
- Guessing the number of players left in the tourney for the next round, or the number of players with a specific stat left. (6w-3l players, for instance). This bonus game chance would then be won for the coming round and require people to have a win this round to participate in the guessing game.

[VicFontaine]

I guess # 301.

[agentcom]

What? You should always be guessing from the remaining numbers. Only 1 person can win.

Do you not get it? I think you are very confused cause your post makes no sense whatsoever. When did I say that more than one person should/can win?

Let me break down for you:

The point I am trying to make is that without HA's posts about "no winner up to here" everyone has the same odds of making a guess which is 1/300= 0.0033 ...
BUT when HA comes on the thread and posts that up until his post there are no correct guesses yet then this changes the odds for the remaining players. Let's say up until his post of "no winner up to here", there have been 151 incorrect guesses. Now this changes the odds for the remaining players --> 300-151=149
Now the new odds have improved for the remaining players: 1/149=0.0067 ...
So I believe everyone should be playing with the same initial odds. If you are bad in math then just skip this post.

Don't hold strong opinions on topics that you know little about.

As has been pointed out, the odds do not change when HA tells people that the game is not yet over. That's all he is doing. He's saying, "You are not wasting your time by continuing to guess." All that implementing your suggestion would do, is start a brand new game.

For those who actually know math, here's how the odds work for a simplified Guess One Number Out of 20 game. Here P(x) is the expected payout for player x will get the payout. The payout is 1 or 0--he either gets the win or does not.

P(A) = 1/20*(1) = 1/20
P(B) = 1/20*(0) + 19/20/19 (1) = 1/20

Because in 1/20 of cases, A guessed correctly and payout is 0. In 19/20 cases, A did not. But B must now pick one of the 19 numbers, thus the 19 in the denominator.

If someone tells B the game is over, then he knows not to play, but it does not affect his ex ante decision of whether to play first or second, nor does that decision affect his overall odds of winning the game.

[agentcom]

I guess 3 and 133

[Night Strike]

Game 8669854

I defended my bounty and pocketed a nice 53 points from the win.

Looks like you may never pay this one out

I can pay it out to myself.

[krazlys]

22 and 222

[HighlanderAttack]

I will consider this for next time. Sound like a good idea.

HA,
When you come on and post here to say that none of the guesses up to your post are correct, then does that reset the guessing game? Meaning: people who have guessed their two guesses prior to your post are allowed to guess again? Please clarify. Thanks!

No it does not reset your previous guesses--just letting everyone know we don't have a winner.

Well, in that case I don't think it's really fair to the people who posted their guesses earlier. Once you post here that there is no winner yet, then future guessers can simply go look at all the numbers that ARE NOT the correct guess and choose from the remaining numbers! So every time you post that there is no winner as of yet, then the odds of guessing correctly improve considerably for those who guess after your post. Don't you think this does not give fair advantage to everyone?

I vote for the reset guess options if you are going to post that there are no winners. Or simply set a time at which time you look at all the guesses up until that point and if no correct guesses then you resort to your plan B.

HA
I'm not at all trying to say that you shouldn't consider this for next time. But I would like to point out that as was stated in a post a little while ago just because you say that no one has won yet that does NOT effect the odds whatsoever. I am a math major and I know a lot about odds and odds are not effected by you stating that no one has won yet as this quote right here shows:

-If the first person was right, the second has a 0% chance of winning. If the first person was wrong, the second person has a 2/298 chance of winning.
-If one of the first 2 people was right, the third has a 0% chance of winning. If the first 2 people were wrong, the third person has a 2/296 chance of winning.

Since you cannot guess a number that someone else picked, knowing whether or not they picked the right number has absolutely no effect on your odds of winning.

thanks drunk monkey for the quote.

I just like the idea of resetting the game to start over so that the active players on the thread get another chance