Streaky Dice Question

by **RADAGA** on Sun Apr 17, 2011 9:16 am

I am complaining about 3x1 results, they have more problems because if there is a streak and considering a TIE always favours defence, the system is bound to show more "defence wins" than it statistics says it "should": Since CC system does not keep separate attack and defence dice files, they just pick 5 in the pack, either discard some dice or not, depending on the attack mode (3x2/3x1/2x2/1x2/1x1) and label the remaining accordingly, any streak have a tendency in spreading through attack and defence dice, always favoring the later).

So, it is not a matter of "defence always get high dice" but more a matter of "defence always tie with my attack dice", therefore hinting at streaks happening above the statistical expectancy.

by **patrickaa317** on Sun Apr 17, 2011 9:21 am

RADAGA wrote:I am complaining about 3x1 results, they have more problems because if there is a streak and considering a TIE always favours defence, the system is bound to show more "defence wins" than it statistics says it "should": Since CC system does not keep separate attack and defence dice files, they just pick 5 in the pack, either discard some dice or not, depending on the attack mode (3x2/3x1/2x2/1x2/1x1) and label the remaining accordingly, any streak have a tendency in spreading through attack and defence dice, always favoring the later).

So, it is not a matter of "defence always get high dice" but more a matter of "defence always tie with my attack dice", therefore hinting at streaks happening above the statistical expectancy.

patrickaa317 wrote:

Sit down tonight with 5 dice and a sheet of paper. 3 white dice and 2 black dice (or some other way of deciphering attacking vs defending dice).

On the sheet of paper, make three columns. Name these: "Dice" "Same" "Conquer"

Everytime you click "Attack" in Conquer Club, roll the same amount of dice in real life. On the sheet of paper, mark whether the outcome of the real dice or the conquer club dice were better; if they had the same outcome; then mark "same". After you do this 100 times, check to see if the conquer club dice are truly screwing you. If it is pretty close; do it for another 100 times.

Do the above whenever you do a 3v1 attack and let me know how it matches up compared to real life.

by **RADAGA** on Sun Apr 17, 2011 12:36 pm

Okay, let see against my today dice, they were:
3x1 lost
3x1 lost
3x1 won
3x1 lost
3x1 won
3x1 lost
3x1 lost
3x1 won
3x1 lost
3x1 won
3x1 lost
3x1 won

lost 7 / won 5

by **SirSebstar** on Mon Apr 18, 2011 6:08 am

and in a sample of 13, thats not even a sample...
In a sample of 1000 you loose 370. so you have 363 more lossess to go

by **RADAGA** on Wed Apr 20, 2011 9:42 am

SirSebstar wrote:and in a sample of 13, thats not even a sample...
In a sample of 1000 you loose 370. so you have 363 more lossess to go

WHAT? Let me try to understand your thinking....

7 out of 13 is 53%

BUT, thats not all, seven plus five is TWELVE, therefore 58%

so, you are saying that 53 percent of one thousand is 370? Or that 370 is 58% of 1.000?

I thought 370 would be 37%.. and that 58% would be 580 (leaving only 420 more for wins). Silly me.

Oh, wait, I got it! You work for the government, and already charged Tax in those?

by **SirSebstar** on Wed Apr 20, 2011 5:07 pm

i really dont get what you are on about...
and oops, miscalculated. Counted the amount of lines including the text directly above it instead of only the lines with numbers.
I just had a 3x2 that i WON 20 times in a row!!! Lucky me, must be because I am a mod, or because the dice really are random, and streakyness aside, I have also lost quite a few times in a row

by **RADAGA** on Wed Apr 20, 2011 5:22 pm

Yes, I´ve won several ridiculous rolls in a row as well, and those also are supposed to be very, very, very rare.

Alas, they are not. Win 20 3x2 in a row, what are the odds? Dont say that a previous roll should affect the next, but do the math for a result like having a 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three AND 1-in-three chance to happen.

Or else, roll 1 D6 and have only 5 or 6 for 20 rolls (assuming half of each evenly distribuited, and apply it for the 4 die roll, dicard 1 for a D&D charactere, you would have 6+6+5+5(discarded), thus a seventeen for EVERY attribute
str 17
dex 17
con 17
int 17
wis 17
cha 17

Would you be dungeon master for someone playing with such a charactere? thats what you are here mr moderator, a dungeon master ofr a party of either full seventeens or full fives for attributes (1;1;2;2 = 2+2+1=5)

by **SirSebstar** on Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:37 pm

Yes, I´ve won several ridiculous rolls in a row as well, and those also are supposed to be very, very, very rare.

by **RADAGA** on Fri Apr 22, 2011 3:52 pm

SirSebstar wrote:
Yes, I´ve won several ridiculous rolls in a row as well, and those also are supposed to be very, very, very rare.

Are they not supposed to occur only very rarely? To win 20 3x2 not losing a single army? It should be SO rare that you dont even expect to SEE it happening.

by **SirSebstar** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 8:15 am

I could continue with the headbanging, but let me try to make you clear it up yourself..

why? why would it be more rare to see a certain amount of dice go one way?
is a 666,11 sequence equally rare, less rare or more rare then a 111,66
Soncide that the diceresult is random, so you could theoreticly have a very long string of one number, random meaning they are not dependand on the previous diceroll, so each dice has an equal chance of being thrown on any give diceroll, so that means every time you throw a 6, you could throw a 6 again in the turn after..

one last question. which result is more likely to happen (only one option possible)
666556665566655666556665566655
or
123456123456123456123456123456
or
66666666666666666666666666666

honestly, all i need is a reply to the last question before i cause permanent injury to the wall...

by **donkeymile** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 10:42 pm

theory and reality are separate .....

by **Ryall55** on Sun Apr 24, 2011 6:00 pm

What are the odds of losing a 22v3 ?? Just happened to me on the Easter map

by **donkeymile** on Sun Apr 24, 2011 9:49 pm

No more proof needed for me.

Another day of brutal dice AND my opponents winning dice defying odds at the same time. Nothing new under the sun .... so funny when my oppponents talk about how nice their dice were compared to mine ....

so to those of you talking that it's only my perception .... bullshit .... my opponents are commenting on it too .....

by **SirSebstar** on Mon Apr 25, 2011 10:04 am

ah, you have got the Lack hates you because of complaining dice hack.. seems lack is really out to get you...
not.
streakyness and luck are inherent. there is no solution to the problem beyond lack hacking the dice and giving you all 6'és...

by **RADAGA** on Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:05 am

same here. todays rolls> 3x1 lost lost lost win lost win lost lost win (3 games, 3 attempts to get a card by conquering a 1-army-territory, for three times I lost armies before getting them. One of those, I lost 3 armies. 6 armies lost to kill 3 odds 66,66% against me when math says those should have been right the opposite.

the odds of a 6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6 are the same of any other number, i ´d give you that.

now tell me, why people are not smashed by meteors every day on earth? on that topic, why almost all life in the planet were wiped out just ONCE in the billion-years of earth? due to your informations, we should have been hit every week by massive meteors, the odds are the same of not being, given a meteor can or cannot strike earth on a given day, the odds for either hypothesis are the same.

arent we lucky?

by **donkeymile** on Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:16 am

if that was pointed at me - you couldn't be further from the truth

I accept that random is random and I'm going to get shit dice .... no way around it ... what I am saying is that it is NOT coincidence that when I am getting these brutal streaks, my opponents are CONSISTENTLY having dice defying odds go their way ..... it's the consistent nature I am whining about ... not a mere small sample of isolated incidents.

by **AndyDufresne** on Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:35 am

donkeymile wrote:if that was pointed at me - you couldn't be further from the truth

I accept that random is random and I'm going to get shit dice .... no way around it ... what I am saying is that it is NOT coincidence that when I am getting these brutal streaks, my opponents are CONSISTENTLY having dice defying odds go their way ..... it's the consistent nature I am whining about ... not a mere small sample of isolated incidents.

Hopefully a feature we have been working on recently can help give everyone some insight to both the randomness of the dice, in addition to the perceived streakiness.

--Andy

by **donkeymile** on Mon Apr 25, 2011 9:30 pm

can't wait Andy .... can't friggin wait

today alone opponents 14v21 win 10 left, 12v32 win 6 left, 9v14 win 8 left, last game I had a chance to win had me go 16v1 12 left, 12v1 8 left, 8v1 loss ... so typical

I have bad dice while opponents have dice defying odds dice .. CONSISTENTLY .... can't wait for the evidence to prove it ....

by **donkeymile** on Tue Apr 26, 2011 12:16 pm

Hope this is coming soon .... another day here another ridiculous set of dice

me 10v2 loss (1-2)- him 4v7v3 win
me 8v1 loss - him 4v3 win
me 12v7 (1-7) loss - him 7v7v4v4v3

oh and right now me 12v3 loss ... him 8v13v4v1v1v1v2

f*ck this ... perception? bullshit

same old same old

by **donkeymile** on Tue Apr 26, 2011 8:26 pm

back to back turns 12v1 loss all and 8v1 loss all lol ..... ho hum nothing new under the CC sun

by **RADAGA** on Fri Apr 29, 2011 10:51 am

13x4 lost all, killed 1

9x1 stopped at 4x1

same old

by **natty dread** on Fri Apr 29, 2011 11:17 am

If the dice suck so much that you have to constantly complain about it on the forums, why play at all? Why not leave and find some other site where the dice are less "rigged" and "streaky"?

by **donkeymile** on Fri Apr 29, 2011 3:06 pm

obviously you're not a good 'listener' dready ..... I have not said they are rigged .... and I get that streaky is random .... the problem I have now found is that when one is in the midst of a bad dice streak, the opponents dice CONSISTENTLY (key word here) break through odds defying feats ... not just 'normal' but defying the odds on a CONSISTENT basis ... which I DON'T see when I am having 'normal' or good dice. Its a pattern that by its very nature SHOULD NOT exist in true random.

I love how you try and put words in people's mouths by adding words like 'rigged.' Trying to make it sound ..... aaaah, you know it's just not worth my time .... I'd rather concentrate on some value added work at this point ....

Now the second part of your question .... why do I stay here .....

Two reasons ... one, I have made friends here that I don't want to lose, and I enjoy the wit and banter in the games I play with them, and I don't want to abandon the games I am involved in with them ...

secondly, I want to stick around and wait for the next updates so I can provide the proof I need to show that I know what I'm talking about ... and that it has nothing to do with perception.

by **RADAGA** on Fri Apr 29, 2011 4:24 pm

yep, the games are good, the site is good and there are good pepole around.

It is about the same reason of "why I stay in brazil"

we have a corrupt govmnt, health care inexistent, drug issues, corrupt and violent cops, sold-off justice, private armies terrorizing poor communities, unfair salairies (me, 2 college degrees, make about 12.000 us$/yr .. and thats a LOT more than most - most make about 3.500.)

But we have the nicest, friendliest people in the world, we have next-to-zero religious intolerance, next-to-zero racism, absolute NO xenofoby. We dont kill our neighbors for "belief". Neither for "whats right" btw.

We have NO wars, we NEVER had wars. EVER! Not ONCE we used weapons to "make a point" to any other nation. And we are big, and, compared to our neighbors, a potency. That, alone, makes me proud to live here, in spite of ALL the shit we must swallow daily.

Not to mention Rio de Janeiro is one of the MOST beautiful cities in the world.

In a lesser degree, that is CC - a friendly community, with a nice layout and very good reasons to live in. In spite of the dice.

by **musicalmaven** on Sat Apr 30, 2011 11:12 am

ok natty - let's get to your stupid question (if you don't like it why don't you leave?)
i don't know how old you are but your question is the same stupid comment from the late 60s and early 70s over the viet nam war (see merle haggard and his "okie from musgokee).
what they could not understand, and apparently what you can not understand, is that just because you love/enjoy something doesn't mean you can't see a problem and want to fix it.
of course, here it is also that the "problem" is the dice are constantly affecting the outcome of our games, usually in a negative manner - hence the complaints. (i doubt this forum has ever gotten a complaint that the dice are stacked in my favor and i am winning too many games.)
and as far as going elsewhere is concerned - i saw a survey recently (on the web, of course) listing the best sites to play risk. this site is # 2. the # 1 site is still in beta and not accepting new members. both sites got a ranking of over 80, as i recall. there was a big drop off to the third place site, so, where would anyone go?
this is a good site, why give it up and go elsewhere when elsewhere is so very much poorer than where we are? but that doesn't mean it can't be improved.
and nor for woodruff - for you i have two questions:
1) in a previous post i asked about the last time the site went down for an update and one of the things being added was a method of keeping track of an individual's dice rolls. you responded saying you recall seeing that too, but had no idea where a person could access it.
that was a few weeks ago - have you found out about that new add-on? if so, please tell us how to access it.
2) what the hell is wrong with the dice analyzer? i have noticed previously that the totals on it do not seem to correspond to my own records, but i assumed that was because of a time lag in postings and errors on my part, as well as the difference of how the analyzer keeps track of the dice results and how i do. but due to an update on my computer my numbers on the dice analyzer were all reset to 0 yesterday. i started a new sheet to keep track of my results. today the dice analyzer shows that yesterday in 3 vs. 1 situations i won 9 and lost 10 (this corresponds to my records too), but in 3 vs. 2 i went 22 wins and 24 loses. the dice analyzer shows 6/10/7. that would reflect a result of 17 & 19 on my method of record keeping.
even the overall stats at the bottom only show results of 15/10/17 or 35 & 39 on my more simple method, but i could only have a record of 31 & 34 overall based on my results from yesterday.
and don't tell me that any results are possible because the dice are random and, hence, so is the dice analyzer.
seriously though, i have repeatedly stated that to add fuel to my/our position of a problem with the dice, more people should use the dice analyzer, but that is based on the assumption that the dice analyzer actually gives accurate information.