Moderator: Community Team
jeraado wrote:Whew, finished reading up. That took HOURS!
Back in my days, before I was lynched, I was just starting to get a bit suspicious of Iliad, despite his claim. Although this role and my last one have the same alignment, the main reason I wanted to re-read right from the beginning was to try and pick up on anything I'd missed, and not carry on with a bias against Iliad. I had intended to write a long synopsis of each player, but its 4am here and I'm barely able to stay awake to write this.
I am assuming that there is just the abomination left. So, mainly to keep it all in one post, here's what we know about each player:
Haggis
- Claimed bodyguard
- Claimed PR requiring him to pity 3 fools each day
- Cleared as human by Iliad
Sax
- Revealed he holds a double-vote (proven day 2)
- Annoying PR which has been consistently used
- Claimed to be Arnie day 6 NB- Arnie is specifically mentioned as president and partially responsible for the apocalypse in opening scene)
- Claimed mayor and unlynchable (proven day 7)
Mr Squirrel
- Claimed SWAT and masoned with Saf confirmed by saf
- Claimed vig and killer of violet on night 6 no counterclaim
- Claimed flavour as SWAT hitman and later as Jonny Morales no counterclaim and central to several scenes
- Claimed recruited by cult and now survivor
Iliad
- Claimed investigator of non-humans on day 2 and outs herk [b]confirmed by herk lynch
- Cleared Haggis and jeraado as human[/b]
jeraado
- Cleared by Iliad as human
- Claimed PR
Again, assuming there is only the abomination left I see three scenarios. All three pretty much hinge around Iliad's role:
1) Iliad is truthful, and the abomination is detectable
With Haggis and I cleared, and Iliad assumed to not be the abomination, that would leave Mr Squirrel and Sax as suspects. For Mr Squirrel to be the abomination, he would have to have two night-kills (proven by vio's death) and a heavily split character. In my view, it is simply too unlikely for him to be both Jonny Morales and the abomination. For Sax to be the abomination, the abomination would have to be a mutation of Arnie (can't be ruled out), and be unlynchable (proven on day 7). I believe Sax to be the more likely of the two in this scenario, i.e. being a highly-powered SK
If we come to the conclusion that scenario 1 is true, then I'd propose we reattempt to lynch sax (in case is was a 1-shot unlynchable) and/or Mr Squirrel uses his NK on sax
2) Iliad is the abomination and has been fake-claiming investigator
If this is the case, then Iliad would obviously need to be lynched. My reasoning behind this possibility would be that:
- Iliad has cleared, or there is heavy flavour suggesting that all others are not the abomination
- Having an investigator to identify only two roles in a 21 player game seems underpowered
- The only guilty investigation from Iliad came immediately after a night-scene where the abomination targetted but failed to kill the werewolf (i.e. the night-scene would have told the abomination that the person it targetted was a werewolf)
- The abomination appears to have killed every night, apart from being stopped by a couple of BPs. Likewise Iliad does not appear to have been targetted. Since Iliad claimed on Day 2 I would speculate that the abomination would want to eliminate its main threat and would at least test whether Iliad was protected at some point (due to WIFOM). Also, mafia would have no reason to target Iliad since he couldnt detect them and roleblockers wouldnt target him since they would believe him to be an investigator, and neither group appears to have hit the abomination either
If we come to the conclusion that scenario 2 is true, then I'd propose we lynch Iliad
3) Iliad is truthful but the abomination is undetectable (e.g. returns to human form)
If this is the case then all of us (other than Iliad) are suspects. This would assume that Iliad's role was only to identify the werewolf (possibly a recruiting faction), or he has other unrevealed powers. In this case we have a lot of information to discover, so I wont go into all the scenarios now.
However, if we come to the conclusion that scenario 3 is true I'd suggest we make a mass claim and take our time discussing each claim before voting.
My personal feeling is that Iliad is actually the abomination (to me it requires the fewest assumptions) but I've missed some evidence or a possibility I dont want to rush to that straight away. I'd be interested to hear the idea haggis is proposing.
Two other things - I recognise that I am the person that the rest of you probably have the least information about. I am willing to claim of course although I would prefer to do it as part of a mass claim this late in the game. Although skoffin didnt have a huge number of posts I believe that my role is easily verifiable.
Also, if there are two anti-town roles left (perhaps a stray mafia member) then today may be LYLO. We need to be careful as we're in a winnable position and it would be gutting to lose now.
Finally, apologies for any typos or if I don't make sense with any of the above, but its now 4:30 and I'm off to bed. I'm going to hold off on any voting until we've had a chance to talk through the possibilities
jeraado wrote:Whew, finished reading up. That took HOURS!
Back in my days, before I was lynched, I was just starting to get a bit suspicious of Iliad, despite his claim. Although this role and my last one have the same alignment, the main reason I wanted to re-read right from the beginning was to try and pick up on anything I'd missed, and not carry on with a bias against Iliad. I had intended to write a long synopsis of each player, but its 4am here and I'm barely able to stay awake to write this.
I am assuming that there is just the abomination left. So, mainly to keep it all in one post, here's what we know about each player:
Haggis
- Claimed bodyguard
- Claimed PR requiring him to pity 3 fools each day
- Cleared as human by Iliad
Sax
- Revealed he holds a double-vote (proven day 2)
- Annoying PR which has been consistently used
- Claimed to be Arnie day 6 NB- Arnie is specifically mentioned as president and partially responsible for the apocalypse in opening scene)
- Claimed mayor and unlynchable (proven day 7)
Mr Squirrel
- Claimed SWAT and masoned with Saf confirmed by saf
- Claimed vig and killer of violet on night 6 no counterclaim
- Claimed flavour as SWAT hitman and later as Jonny Morales no counterclaim and central to several scenes
- Claimed recruited by cult and now survivor
Iliad
- Claimed investigator of non-humans on day 2 and outs herk confirmed by herk lynch
- Cleared Haggis and jeraado as human
jeraado
- Cleared by Iliad as human
- Claimed PR
Again, assuming there is only the abomination left I see three scenarios. All three pretty much hinge around Iliad's role:
1) Iliad is truthful, and the abomination is detectable
With Haggis and I cleared, and Iliad assumed to not be the abomination, that would leave Mr Squirrel and Sax as suspects. For Mr Squirrel to be the abomination, he would have to have two night-kills (proven by vio's death) and a heavily split character. In my view, it is simply too unlikely for him to be both Jonny Morales and the abomination. For Sax to be the abomination, the abomination would have to be a mutation of Arnie (can't be ruled out), and be unlynchable (proven on day 7). I believe Sax to be the more likely of the two in this scenario, i.e. being a highly-powered SK
If we come to the conclusion that scenario 1 is true, then I'd propose we reattempt to lynch sax (in case is was a 1-shot unlynchable) and/or Mr Squirrel uses his NK on sax
2) Iliad is the abomination and has been fake-claiming investigator
If this is the case, then Iliad would obviously need to be lynched. My reasoning behind this possibility would be that:
- Iliad has cleared, or there is heavy flavour suggesting that all others are not the abomination
- Having an investigator to identify only two roles in a 21 player game seems underpowered
- The only guilty investigation from Iliad came immediately after a night-scene where the abomination targetted but failed to kill the werewolf (i.e. the night-scene would have told the abomination that the person it targetted was a werewolf)
- The abomination appears to have killed every night, apart from being stopped by a couple of BPs. Likewise Iliad does not appear to have been targetted. Since Iliad claimed on Day 2 I would speculate that the abomination would want to eliminate its main threat and would at least test whether Iliad was protected at some point (due to WIFOM). Also, mafia would have no reason to target Iliad since he couldnt detect them and roleblockers wouldnt target him since they would believe him to be an investigator, and neither group appears to have hit the abomination either
If we come to the conclusion that scenario 2 is true, then I'd propose we lynch Iliad
3) Iliad is truthful but the abomination is undetectable (e.g. returns to human form)
If this is the case then all of us (other than Iliad) are suspects. This would assume that Iliad's role was only to identify the werewolf (possibly a recruiting faction), or he has other unrevealed powers. In this case we have a lot of information to discover, so I wont go into all the scenarios now.
However, if we come to the conclusion that scenario 3 is true I'd suggest we make a mass claim and take our time discussing each claim before voting.
My personal feeling is that Iliad is actually the abomination (to me it requires the fewest assumptions) but I've missed some evidence or a possibility I dont want to rush to that straight away. I'd be interested to hear the idea haggis is proposing.
Two other things - I recognise that I am the person that the rest of you probably have the least information about. I am willing to claim of course although I would prefer to do it as part of a mass claim this late in the game. Although skoffin didnt have a huge number of posts I believe that my role is easily verifiable.
Also, if there are two anti-town roles left (perhaps a stray mafia member) then today may be LYLO. We need to be careful as we're in a winnable position and it would be gutting to lose now.
Finally, apologies for any typos or if I don't make sense with any of the above, but its now 4:30 and I'm off to bed. I'm going to hold off on any voting until we've had a chance to talk through the possibilities
Commander9 wrote:Time to get this moving - deadline this Tuesday.
pmchugh wrote:If I wasn't lazy, I would sig that
jeraado wrote:Commander, since we're down to so few, would you consider prodding haggis and mr squirrel rather than setting the deadline, since we're just waiting for their input and a lynch cant occur without them anyway?
jeraado wrote:- The only guilty investigation from Iliad came immediately after a night-scene where the abomination targetted but failed to kill the werewolf (i.e. the night-scene would have told the abomination that the person it targetted was a werewolf)
Haggis_McMutton wrote:Woops, sorry for the delayed response.
Anyway:jeraado wrote:- The only guilty investigation from Iliad came immediately after a night-scene where the abomination targetted but failed to kill the werewolf (i.e. the night-scene would have told the abomination that the person it targetted was a werewolf)
This is key. I had forgotten about this point. Nice find.
This makes him lying a lot more probable I think.
Also, just 2 non-humans, again doesn't make a lot of sense.
Also,also. He claims to have been roleblocked several times. Who exactly would have done this roleblocking?
What are the options if we lynch iliad?
1. He's scum ... yay!
2. He's not scum, and his investigations are valid, therefore Sax must be the abomination, Squirrel NK's him. If somehow Squirrel is the abomination(which seems extremely unlikely), we lynch him tomorrow
3. He's not scum and his investigations are invalid. Well, again Squirrel Nk's Sax, we claim tomorrow and go from there.
4. Any of the above, but there's more then one scum left ... I pity the fools that are us in that situation.
So yeah, I guess I'm in favour of an Iliad lynch.
TheSaxlad wrote:2 nonz-humanz makez lotz of sensez with mafia and 2 cultz. think of the non-humanz az flavourz.
Haggis_McMutton wrote:What are the options if we lynch iliad?
1. He's scum ... yay!
2. He's not scum, and his investigations are valid, therefore Sax must be the abomination, Squirrel NK's him. If somehow Squirrel is the abomination(which seems extremely unlikely), we lynch him tomorrow
3. He's not scum and his investigations are invalid. Well, again Squirrel Nk's Sax, we claim tomorrow and go from there.
4. Any of the above, but there's more then one scum left ... I pity the fools that are us in that situation.
So yeah, I guess I'm in favour of an Iliad lynch.
TheSaxlad wrote:If werez right itz wontz matter no?
pmchugh wrote:If I wasn't lazy, I would sig that
Haggis_McMutton wrote:TheSaxlad wrote:2 nonz-humanz makez lotz of sensez with mafia and 2 cultz. think of the non-humanz az flavourz.
Yeah, i mean that it doesn't make sense to have a cop that can detect 2 out of 21 people.
Iliad wrote:I've explained time and time again that herkman most likely could "turn" people into werewolves. I was probably the role who was supposed to catch them.
Iliad wrote:Your plan has a number of flaws.
Firstly your brush off the fact that there's a chance that neither haggis or jeraado who coudl be the abomination and be undetectable as jeraado pointed out was possible. If that is the case, you will lynch squirrel tomorrow and lose.
Iliad wrote:If sax is the abomination you are counting on the kill being not stopped, but as squirrel's failure to kill last night, interestingly enough squirrel hasn't said who he was aiming for. There is also the matter of the jacket which seems to provide bulletproofness, as the night scene demonstrated. If the kills fails, you will be in the position of lylo and even worse than the previous situation, four suspects.
Iliad wrote:If squirrel is the abomination, as is quite possible per the Jekyll and Hyde theory, it's also possible that he has up to two night kills, one unwitting and one witting. If that is the case and his sax kill goes through, he wins.
Iliad wrote:I may not have found the abomination yet, but considering how much I have done, finding herk and streaker's cult, my record is one of the most pro-town of all time.
Iliad wrote:If sax is the abomination you are counting on the kill being not stopped, but as squirrel's failure to kill last night, interestingly enough squirrel hasn't said who he was aiming for. There is also the matter of the jacket which seems to provide bulletproofness, as the night scene demonstrated. If the kills fails, you will be in the position of lylo and even worse than the previous situation, four suspects.
Haggis_McMutton wrote:Iliad wrote:I've explained time and time again that herkman most likely could "turn" people into werewolves. I was probably the role who was supposed to catch them.
Four cults? Seems unreasonable.
Even if true, why isn't there a flavour cop for each of the other cults?
Haggis_McMutton"
[quote="Iliad wrote:Your plan has a number of flaws.
Firstly your brush off the fact that there's a chance that neither haggis or jeraado who coudl be the abomination and be undetectable as jeraado pointed out was possible. If that is the case, you will lynch squirrel tomorrow and lose.
Haggis_McMutton"[quote="Iliad wrote:If sax is the abomination you are counting on the kill being not stopped, but as squirrel's failure to kill last night, interestingly enough squirrel hasn't said who he was aiming for. There is also the matter of the jacket which seems to provide bulletproofness, as the night scene demonstrated. If the kills fails, you will be in the position of lylo and even worse than the previous situation, four suspects.
Haggis_McMutton"[quote="Iliad wrote:If squirrel is the abomination, as is quite possible per the Jekyll and Hyde theory, it's also possible that he has up to two night kills, one unwitting and one witting. If that is the case and his sax kill goes through, he wins.
Haggis_McMutton"
[quote="Iliad wrote:I may not have found the abomination yet, but considering how much I have done, finding herk and streaker's cult, my record is one of the most pro-town of all time.
Iliad wrote:Haggis_McMutton wrote:Iliad wrote:I've explained time and time again that herkman most likely could "turn" people into werewolves. I was probably the role who was supposed to catch them.
Four cults? Seems unreasonable.
Even if true, why isn't there a flavour cop for each of the other cults?
I don't think this would've worked as a cult. I'm tired of repeating this, but herk had no idea that he was a werewolf, and most likely the people he could've turned would have been the same.Haggis_McMutton wrote:Iliad wrote:Your plan has a number of flaws.
Firstly your brush off the fact that there's a chance that neither haggis or jeraado who coudl be the abomination and be undetectable as jeraado pointed out was possible. If that is the case, you will lynch squirrel tomorrow and lose.
You're right. That's why I suggest that in that situation we all claim and go from there. Seems to me we'll have better odds then than now anyway.
You wouldn't in that situation, seeing as you'll be in LYLO, without any real discernable way of working otu the abomination.Haggis_McMutton wrote:Iliad wrote:If sax is the abomination you are counting on the kill being not stopped, but as squirrel's failure to kill last night, interestingly enough squirrel hasn't said who he was aiming for. There is also the matter of the jacket which seems to provide bulletproofness, as the night scene demonstrated. If the kills fails, you will be in the position of lylo and even worse than the previous situation, four suspects.
Sax has already survived a lynch. I'm betting he won't also survive a NK.
But it's highly probable that he could, making squirrel's nk definitely not guaranteed. Read the night scene properly, someone, presumably Bear Grylls, had a jacket that stopped a night kill that he gave away to someone else. There's a high chance this jacket could be with Arnold now.Haggis_McMutton][quote="Iliad wrote:If squirrel is the abomination, as is quite possible per the Jekyll and Hyde theory, it's also possible that he has up to two night kills, one unwitting and one witting. If that is the case and his sax kill goes through, he wins.
Possibility of squirrel being the abomination seems very small.
A double kill SK with a mason that can make him bulletproof and make him look like town? does seem a tad overpowered.
It's powerful, but it's not overpowered because he's not aware. He's doing as much good for town wittingly as he's working against it, unwittingly.Haggis_McMutton wrote:Iliad wrote:I may not have found the abomination yet, but considering how much I have done, finding herk and streaker's cult, my record is one of the most pro-town of all time.
Both of those objectives would also work for you if you were a SK.
A serial killer wouldn't stick his neck out like that to risk the wrath of an entire faction or try and attract that much attention.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users