Phatscotty wrote:Waiting patiently, which is why I hold that, until I see the first red flag that could possibly lead to interest rates rising, people are close to safe in gold and silver. I equate red flags with US gov't spending cuts, the end of QE, de-petrodollarification on a large scale, technical support in the USD, increased foreign bond purchases etc. There are rumors concerning some of these, and others are coming to fruition on small scales, but overall I don't think the dollar is going to hold at .72. I would put precious metals at close to safe rather than safe, although I admit the explosion in the prices does make me nervous based on price and gains alone. However, I expect one more "major event" to come through pretty soon, and that is the top of the US bond market, which you might agree is interchangible with your statement of increasing interest rates. (not to confuse, but now we have to consider if the gov't will interfere and rob us of the free market expectations and make it an artificial market IE cdo's). At that point, I think precious metals will have a last spectacular, once in a life time shot to the moon, and then it will crash for a generation but probably stabilze around 1800-2200, bar of course the USD crash or a strong SDR.
My guys have been over 85% heavy in precious metals since 2001. about 1 in 100 passed on gold at 260 and silver at 3.50, but now 30 of those hundred must have precious metals and they dont care how much it costs, another sign for me. But I have always expected the sheep to come in in the end and blow the top out of the bubble in remarkible fashion. I will tell people to exit hopefully before that

of course, this whole post is priced in USD
I do like your logic and you are spot on regarding the final price surge and how it is often created. I am fascinated that you feel Gold may surge spectacularly before settling, and at that value level? I would have loved to be around on this, but I exited at around $1000, I had my %s all sorted, I had achieved them and there has been other opportunities to be involved in. However, if Gold does reach those dizzy heights I will certainly feel regret at exiting previously. I work to the standard equation that I buy in to precious metals when cheap and exit when the price equates to the 1980 price less my own % discount. At this point I exit and bank the liquidity. If you are correct I shall have to adjust that process in the future should I ever wish to get back into that market with any real weight. Kudos to you over the whole thing.
The real alchemy would be to exit just BEFORE those final signs appeared

I bought into a spread of nano companies in 1999. Most of which have since gone to the wall. However, from those I still have 7 looking good and the combined value is now pretty much what I injected in the first place. I have since bought into others (yes I am a committed nano investor) and have yet to see any real growth. I am of the opinion 1 or 2 will do a Google+ in value terms and I managed to get right in at ground and mezzanine level on all those still in existence so will be looking for a big payday...or leave the shares all wrapped up in a decent investment trust for my descendants, there's a couple who would be able to keep a wary eye and make sure the family cashed it's chips at the right moment.