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Federal Reserve, Fiscal Stimulus, and Future Consequences

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Federal Reserve, Fiscal Stimulus, and Future Consequences

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:55 pm

This isn't directed at oVo for a response. I just want to see how many views know what I'm talking about.




BigBallinStalin wrote:
oVo wrote:At least the sign makers and installers have work.

So do these job stimulating bills and other incentives for employers,
teach people to fish or just feed them in the short term? Can these
jobs be a renewable resource or are they just temporary fixes until
the work is complete?



You're assuming that fiscal stimulus fixed anything in the long-run. It's going to make it worse, and Americans will pay for it in much higher taxes and less state-provided benefits later in their lives.

They're going to pay for it again following another bust from the overvalued capital from stimulus spending in certain sectors.

They're paying for it now and in the future from the continued devaluation of their currency due to the expansionary monetary policy of the Fed.

This is mainly due to the sentiments that a few large banks and a small portion of the tens of thousands of businesses "had" to be bailed out. And, because Keynesian policies of boosting aggregate demand with borrowed money while ignoring human behavior "have" to happen. What a scam. The US government has fucked the Americans big time, and most don't even know it.
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Re: Federal Reserve, Fiscal Stimulus, and Future Consequence

Postby PLAYER57832 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:00 pm

I don't think the fed should be messing around here, period! The problems we have are not because of interest rates or any of the other garbage the fed can "fix". The problems are due to far more fundamental issues. This will not even put a bandaid on the problems, its more like painting over rust instead of scraping and scrubbing it off. It looks sort of OK for a bit, but the rust is still doing its damage.
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Re: Federal Reserve, Fiscal Stimulus, and Future Consequence

Postby thegreekdog on Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:15 pm

I'm picking up what you're putting down.

But, just in case I'm mistaken, I'll pose one of my world-famous scenarios.

Bill earns $30,000 a year at his job. He takes out a credit card with a line of credit of $2,000. For the first few years, he decides to only spend about $10 a month on his credit card and he's able to pay off the credit card every month without paying interest. Bill has two children to whom he pays an allowance of $100 a year.

Last year, Bill's children begged him for a television. He told them he could not afford it. But they wouldn't stop. So Bill, in an effort to placate his children and get elected... I mean... stay dad, decided to buy his children the television by putting $2,000 on his credit card.

Bill found that he couldn't make the $2,000 payment on his credit card each month. So interest started to accumulate. Bill figured out how to pay for the interest, but he still had to buy all the other things his family needed: food, rent, car payments, etc. Bill looked at his children basking in the high definition of his new television and, even though he thought he could take the television back and pay off his credit card, he wanted to keep his voters... I mean children... happy.

As the years passed, Bill's credit card was maxed out and he couldn't make any payments except the interest. His children wanted an X-Box 360 and a PS3 (BOTH!). Once again, Bill gave in, this time taking out another credit card (from China) with a higher interest rate. He purchased both game systems and his children were happy.

As the years continued to pass, Bill found that he started not being able to pay the interest on his two credit cards. So, he decided to stop paying his children $100 a year in allowance, instead opting to give them only $75. Sure, it was a modest tax increase... I mean reduction in allowance... but his children fought against it. Bill reminded them that kids down the street had it way worse. The reduction in allowances helped Bill pay the interest on his credit cards, but he couldn't make a dent in the principal balance.

The next year, Bill's one child got sick. Bill needed to pay for medical care, but didn't have any money to do it. So he took out a loan against his car (assuming he could do such a thing). He used the money to pay for his child's care, but used some additional money to pay for a fancy new suit for himself (Bill should get a nice kickback after all!). Bill's child continued to be sick and, because he didn't have enough money from his allowance, he couldn't pay for his healthcare himself (remember, Bill took away $25 of his allowance last year).

At the end of this year, Bill was in major debt, his car was mortgaged, one of his sons was sick, and neither of his sons made as much money as they used to. Sure enough, Bill's other son got sick. What was Bill to do now? Well, Bill took away all the allowances from both sons to pay for the doctors' bills. Now neither son made any money and they stopped working around the house. Now Bill had to do all the housework, work at his job, and he couldn't pay the credit card bills.

What a vicious cycle! What could Bill do? Well, Bill stopped feeding and caring for his sons, and they left. Bill couldn't make his credit card payments, so the credit card companies repossessed the television and game systems, but they also took Bill's clothes and other personal items to pay for the interest. Bill's car was repossessed as well.

In sum, because Bill wanted to placate his children, he spent too much money, including his future earnings (and his sons' future earnings). The credit card companies eventually got their money and it left Bill a shell of his former self.

In reality sum, if we continue to keep spending and mortgaging our future (which is what we're doing, regardless of political affiliation), the shit is eventually going to hit the fan. And it's not a gradual spending of money, the increases of spending themselves are increasing at an alarming rate. It should get interesting fairly soon.
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Re: Federal Reserve, Fiscal Stimulus, and Future Consequence

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:20 pm

Do you tell your kids that bedtime story?
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Re: Federal Reserve, Fiscal Stimulus, and Future Consequence

Postby thegreekdog on Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:21 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:Do you tell your kids that bedtime story?


Not yet... like most people he wouldn't understand.
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Re: Federal Reserve, Fiscal Stimulus, and Future Consequence

Postby PLAYER57832 on Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:58 pm

thegreekdog wrote:I'm picking up what you're putting down.

But, just in case I'm mistaken, I'll pose one of my world-famous scenarios.

Bill earns $30,000 a year at his job. He takes out a credit card with a line of credit of $2,000. For the first few years, he decides to only spend about $10 a month on his credit card and he's able to pay off the credit card every month without paying interest. Bill has two children to whom he pays an allowance of $100 a year.

Last year, Bill's children begged him for a television. He told them he could not afford it. But they wouldn't stop. So Bill, in an effort to placate his children and get elected... I mean... stay dad, decided to buy his children the television by putting $2,000 on his credit card.

Bill found that he couldn't make the $2,000 payment on his credit card each month. So interest started to accumulate. Bill figured out how to pay for the interest, but he still had to buy all the other things his family needed: food, rent, car payments, etc. Bill looked at his children basking in the high definition of his new television and, even though he thought he could take the television back and pay off his credit card, he wanted to keep his voters... I mean children... happy.

As the years passed, Bill's credit card was maxed out and he couldn't make any payments except the interest. His children wanted an X-Box 360 and a PS3 (BOTH!). Once again, Bill gave in, this time taking out another credit card (from China) with a higher interest rate. He purchased both game systems and his children were happy.

As the years continued to pass, Bill found that he started not being able to pay the interest on his two credit cards. So, he decided to stop paying his children $100 a year in allowance, instead opting to give them only $75. Sure, it was a modest tax increase... I mean reduction in allowance... but his children fought against it. Bill reminded them that kids down the street had it way worse. The reduction in allowances helped Bill pay the interest on his credit cards, but he couldn't make a dent in the principal balance.

The next year, Bill's one child got sick. Bill needed to pay for medical care, but didn't have any money to do it. So he took out a loan against his car (assuming he could do such a thing). He used the money to pay for his child's care, but used some additional money to pay for a fancy new suit for himself (Bill should get a nice kickback after all!). Bill's child continued to be sick and, because he didn't have enough money from his allowance, he couldn't pay for his healthcare himself (remember, Bill took away $25 of his allowance last year).

At the end of this year, Bill was in major debt, his car was mortgaged, one of his sons was sick, and neither of his sons made as much money as they used to. Sure enough, Bill's other son got sick. What was Bill to do now? Well, Bill took away all the allowances from both sons to pay for the doctors' bills. Now neither son made any money and they stopped working around the house. Now Bill had to do all the housework, work at his job, and he couldn't pay the credit card bills.

What a vicious cycle! What could Bill do? Well, Bill stopped feeding and caring for his sons, and they left. Bill couldn't make his credit card payments, so the credit card companies repossessed the television and game systems, but they also took Bill's clothes and other personal items to pay for the interest. Bill's car was repossessed as well.

In sum, because Bill wanted to placate his children, he spent too much money, including his future earnings (and his sons' future earnings). The credit card companies eventually got their money and it left Bill a shell of his former self.

In reality sum, if we continue to keep spending and mortgaging our future (which is what we're doing, regardless of political affiliation), the shit is eventually going to hit the fan. And it's not a gradual spending of money, the increases of spending themselves are increasing at an alarming rate. It should get interesting fairly soon.

Sorry greekdog, but that is just upper class BULL.
Are there idiots out there.. OF COURSE! And plenty of them bring in millions.
Anyway, set aside this does not seem to be BBS question,
Here is what REALLY happens.

Bill makes 40,000. He puts various things on his credit cards.. several, not one, because it seems every time he shops he is given offers for signing up. Mostly, he pays off the balances within the month, but some of the larger balances he lets accumulate, though he pays them off in time. His interest rate is around 12%.

Then Bill gets married. He has good credit, so he gets a house. The house needs appliances.. not to mention a few things to do with the wedding (the couple is older, so they pay themselves and its a very modest wedding, but still, $2K, with the honeymoon on the card. The credit card company offers a new rate. "No", he says, I prefer my old card, with a fixed rate of 12%... long story short, he gets told "well, sorry, we are discontinuing that card" (or maybe he just succumbs to their speil... 1.99% fixed rate, whatever.). The wife has a job, too, of course. They pay off the balance ahead, even manage to put some money aside into 401K and Roth IRA.

EXCEPT... stuff happens. The furnace goes.. and, of course its mid winter. Or, maybe there is a leak in the roof. Maybe there are medical complications (wife pregnant? have issue? That can REALLY get expensive!). Maybe one or the other partner loses their job or something.

Bills mount. They are good people, so they keep up with the payments. Its hard, but they do it. They have most payments set up on automatic payment. BUT... well, it turns out that the payments were set for once a month and the payment date got swiched around. They call the credit company... "gee, hmm, well we did send you out the notice, didn't you see it.. you know, that teeny tiny print in with your credit bill??".

SO... that magic rate suddently goes up, now its 23%. Payments are now MUCH higher. So, they go take out a short-term loan. Rates are high, but not quite as high as the new credit card. They get a couple hundred extra and still have a lower payment for a shorter term than paying the credit card would have met..a nd yes, the credit card goes into the shredder. The money is put aside for future emergencies.

EXCEPT... something else happens. Reread the list, maybe insert "child gets sick" or something of that sort, because by now they have kids. NOTE.. no big screen TV or other idiocy. Yep, let's go with that one. While in the hospital, it turns out that the spouse went and bought something-- nothing extravagent, maybe a kid's birthday or Christmas present. Anyway, forgot to mention the charge. Normally, this would be caught, but with the kid in the hospital.... they find out less than 24 hours after the payment is due, its short by less than $5. "So sorry... not our fault.... we won't charge your account, though, due to the circumstances". EXCEPT.. this does go into the credit report. Another phone call "oh, yes,I see... we'll take care of that". But, the other credit card companies have all seen that report and so they boost their interest rates. In the end, they all go up to now 27.99%


And, suddenly... Bill is having great difficulty paying. He has a few choices. Go bankrupt, lose the house (in PA you don't get to keep the house), etc. Cut WAY back, keep paying, look for lower interest rates.

If you are like me, you keep paying, sell things, look for lower interest rates and a new job. But... a good many people just give up and go bankrupt. A good many others get depressed, run up the cards fully and then go bankrupt, probably divorced as well.

THAT is much more like what is happening across the country to average people.
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Re: Federal Reserve, Fiscal Stimulus, and Future Consequence

Postby thegreekdog on Thu Sep 29, 2011 7:52 pm

BBS, Player is decidedly NOT picking up what you're putting down. It's not that she's refusing to pick it up; rather, she just can't find it at all.

Player - The story is an analogy. Bill is the US government. His sons are us. It's about how the government borrows (or prints) money to spend now (so that the politicans can placate the masses) that we will have to pay back later. I'm not making a negative commentary on people who can't make ends meet, for whatever reason. I'm an asshole, but I'm not that big of an asshole.
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Re: Federal Reserve, Fiscal Stimulus, and Future Consequence

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:08 pm

thegreekdog wrote:BBS, Player is decidedly NOT picking up what you're putting down. It's not that she's refusing to pick it up; rather, she just can't find it at all.


Which is a huge problem. Most people can't see what I (and many others) understand.


I like to think of Fed-created inflation as a tax. The government can't directly tax us without much upset, so what else can they do? Print money. The subtle decrease in value of everyone's dollars is hardly noticeable, yet works nicely to the politicians' and key corporations' advantage. What's astonishing is that most people have no freaking idea how monetary policy works, or understand its consequences.

Since 1913, the value of the US dollar has decreased by 95%. Has anyone noticed goods becoming more expensive? Or their house (over the past 10-20 years) increasing in value? Most of that is from inflation, predominately by the printing of money. That's not real value which has increased--it just takes more dollars to purchase it...
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Re: Federal Reserve, Fiscal Stimulus, and Future Consequence

Postby PLAYER57832 on Fri Sep 30, 2011 1:14 pm

thegreekdog wrote:BBS, Player is decidedly NOT picking up what you're putting down. It's not that she's refusing to pick it up; rather, she just can't find it at all.

Player - The story is an analogy. Bill is the US government. His sons are us. It's about how the government borrows (or prints) money to spend now (so that the politicans can placate the masses) that we will have to pay back later. I'm not making a negative commentary on people who can't make ends meet, for whatever reason. I'm an asshole, but I'm not that big of an asshole.

If you look at my answer to BBS, you see that I did, in fact understand. But your answer was about credit cards and that is itself a big problem, and a lot of people seem to think that is why we got into this mess. So... thinking it was about that specifically was not a stretch.

At any rate, your example is only what the right wing wants to claim about the US. If you change Bill to a grandparent, replace "us" with "big corporations" (and actually, not necessarily all of those, but some absolutely) and then put "us" in as the grandkids asking for toys, (and that the grandparents regular send a check to mom and dad to pay bills, unbeknownst to the kids); then change the law so that the grandkids wind up being responsible for granpappy's bills when he dies... well, you might have it.
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Re: Federal Reserve, Fiscal Stimulus, and Future Consequence

Postby PLAYER57832 on Fri Sep 30, 2011 1:21 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:
thegreekdog wrote:BBS, Player is decidedly NOT picking up what you're putting down. It's not that she's refusing to pick it up; rather, she just can't find it at all.


Which is a huge problem. Most people can't see what I (and many others) understand.


I like to think of Fed-created inflation as a tax. The government can't directly tax us without much upset, so what else can they do? Print money. The subtle decrease in value of everyone's dollars is hardly noticeable, yet works nicely to the politicians' and key corporations' advantage. What's astonishing is that most people have no freaking idea how monetary policy works, or understand its consequences.

Since 1913, the value of the US dollar has decreased by 95%. Has anyone noticed goods becoming more expensive? Or their house (over the past 10-20 years) increasing in value? Most of that is from inflation, predominately by the printing of money. That's not real value which has increased--it just takes more dollars to purchase it...

Except, those are just symptoms. The ultimate reason is that things are more expensive to produce and maintain.

Resources are harder to get, dependence on more resources that require more processing, etc and increasing complexity of goods for sale (not necessarily better, just more complex, needing more maintenance). The inflation bit is just hiding the underground realities. In truth, if we were paying the real cost of most goods, they would be a lot more expensive. But, our system allows most of those costs to be passed onto the grandchildren.

Look at it this way. Economics is really a subset of Ecology. Economics deals with a particular type of human behavior. Ecology deals with not just human behavior (and not just fiscal responses, either), but the whole gamut and even more complex interrelations. The ecology of the world is already "set" , in the sense that we cannot recreate it, cannot change the fundamental nature of ecologic reality at its base (we can tweak it a great deal, but everyone still needs to eat, breath, drink clean water, reproduce and entertain themselves.)

Looking at just economics therefore gives just a microcosm of the whole.

The fed is just a microcosm of economics.

Any idea that the fed can control it all is like asking the tail to wag the dog. Now.. the tail can certainly cuase problems. It can get caught un an elevator, drag itself in muck and collect parasites... all sorts of things. BUT, the tail is not the head, and too many economists (not suggesting you are in this) refuse to acknowledge that.
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Re: Federal Reserve, Fiscal Stimulus, and Future Consequence

Postby BigBallinStalin on Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:27 pm

PLAYER57832 wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:
thegreekdog wrote:BBS, Player is decidedly NOT picking up what you're putting down. It's not that she's refusing to pick it up; rather, she just can't find it at all.


Which is a huge problem. Most people can't see what I (and many others) understand.


I like to think of Fed-created inflation as a tax. The government can't directly tax us without much upset, so what else can they do? Print money. The subtle decrease in value of everyone's dollars is hardly noticeable, yet works nicely to the politicians' and key corporations' advantage. What's astonishing is that most people have no freaking idea how monetary policy works, or understand its consequences.

Since 1913, the value of the US dollar has decreased by 95%. Has anyone noticed goods becoming more expensive? Or their house (over the past 10-20 years) increasing in value? Most of that is from inflation, predominately by the printing of money. That's not real value which has increased--it just takes more dollars to purchase it...

Except, those are just symptoms.


Explain how the 95% devaluation of the US$ is not a cause of the problem.


The ultimate reason is that things are more expensive to produce and maintain.


Sure, like consumers goods... oh wait, after accounting for the past 300 years, they're not more expensive to produce or maintain.

You could say, "POLLUTION!!!" but what are those costs? Let's see those "real" figures.

Resources are harder to get, dependence on more resources that require more processing, etc and increasing complexity of goods for sale (not necessarily better, just more complex, needing more maintenance). The inflation bit is just hiding the underground realities. In truth, if we were paying the real cost of most goods, they would be a lot more expensive. But, our system allows most of those costs to be passed onto the grandchildren.


Why ignore the vastly increasing production of oil, natural gas, and nuclear energy over the past 50 years? Why overlook the role of substitutes for certain expensive goods? Or the cost-savings from new technology?

What do you base your projection on?




Look at it this way. Economics is really a subset of Ecology. Economics deals with a particular type of human behavior. Ecology deals with not just human behavior (and not just fiscal responses, either), but the whole gamut and even more complex interrelations. The ecology of the world is already "set" , in the sense that we cannot recreate it, cannot change the fundamental nature of ecologic reality at its base (we can tweak it a great deal, but everyone still needs to eat, breath, drink clean water, reproduce and entertain themselves.)

Looking at just economics therefore gives just a microcosm of the whole.


What is "ecological economics?"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_economics
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