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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby MeDeFe on Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:38 pm

ok, the last 7 and a half pages have been read and re-read.

The 2 claims and counterclaims give us one important bit of information that I don't think has been explicitly stated yet: Someone we believed to be practically cleared is scum. Either dazza or chapcrap imo. Leitz, I think not. I also don't believe the scum would go to such elaborate lengths as to have one person claim a role and then have someone else counterclaim the same character. We have had a scene with Lock, Shock and Barrel, and a scene with Oogie Boogie. Those 4 are definitely not town. The previous list of unclaimed (excluding me) was:

MoB Deadly
Epitaph1
betiko
trinicardinal
pancakemix

MoB and trini are claiming the reindeer, betiko and Epitaph and claiming Igor, one person from both pairs is town, that leaves us with only 3 candidates for scum. Since I know I'm town I know we need to take a closer look at those we had previously considere practically cleared. If chap hadn't unvoted when he did I would have said he's it, as things are I'm not sure. Luckily we still have our cop and a busdriver. *hint**hint*

I'm believing trini over MoB, trini's night actions make more sense in context and his breadcrumb is far better imo. Bringing up the character trumps talking about what a hypothetical bus driver should do, at the time I even thought it odd to mention the reindeer at all but didn't attach much importance to it. The likelihood of trini pulling that out of nowhere on day 1 and for the reindeer to actually be in the game is quite low.

I'm a bit more uncertain between Epitaph and betiko, but am more inclined to believe Epitaph. He was on both scumlists ONLY uner the assumption that every claim and softclaim (other than one of the trini/MoB pair) up til then had been true, in that situation and with people saying to lynch him since he's on both lists claiming makes sense. The knowledge that there's a backup doctor would also be extremely valuable for the further actions of the busdriver and cop. Betiko's counterclaim makes little to no sense, though, both from a scum and from a town perspective.
If betiko is town he can simply wait and concentrate on the trini/MoB case, if he is nightkilled we all see that he was the real Igor and Epitaph is lynched the next day. If betiko lives through the night he can still counterclaim the next day and make his case then.
If betiko is scum he unnecessarily reduces the amount of uncertainty for town with his fake counterclaim. We know that either he or Epitaph is lying, one is town, one is scum. It's an unnecessary move, unless he deliberately wants to open a third option because he realises that whoever of trini and MoB is town has made the better case, and his scumbuddy is likely to get it. Going for the person who was on both of chap's lists is the best option then.


As things are, I say we decide on a lynch between trini and MoB. That will give us more information than any other option currently on the table. I say we go for MoB for the reasons mentioned above.

vote MoB Deadly

The third person I consider likely to be scum is pcm, he's been dropping small tells, but the big one of "let's lynch Epitaph because he's on both lists" and leaving out that that's only the case under certain assumptions is enough to tip him well over into the scumbase for me.

Then it's either dazza or chapcrap. chap is 3 for 3 townies in the lynching, but his fast volunteering to hammer Rodion did net him some townie points. An investigation is definitely in order there. *hint**hint*



And safari, you might want to count the votes again, one person was voting for MoB in the last one, but there were two against him.

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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby Leitz on Wed Feb 15, 2012 3:30 pm

First of all: Unvote

Alright guys, I've reread from about page 90 all the way through to the end. I'm not going to quote any posts (unless I believe it to be necessary) as I noticed it was very confusing at times at figuring out some posts full of quotes.

The feeling I currently have based on the last days after all the claims is that first of all both bread crumbs are rubbish. MoB just says what should happen, something most players do or often occurs in mafia games. I'm pretty sure no-one will ever see that as a tell. So trini seems more likely.

Not taking in account whether or not a bus driver is told if he would be role blocked or not I am more keen to believe trinis claim (based on rereading everything, not only the breadcrumbs!). Although I must say that MoBs counterclaim only a few minutes afterwards was impressive.

Based on the assumption MoB is mafia I can consider the people he "cleared":
    1. betiko
    2. PCM

In D3 I made a whole case on dazza and why I believed he is mafia. Not much later PCM too made a case on dazza. He does mention he did not know about my post before he posted but how much of that is true. Bandwagoning??

About the Igor claims I cannot tell much, that line is pretty much still in the middle and waiting for some tells. What I do noticed is this post from dazza:
dazza2008 wrote:There is a lot of risk in going for 1 of the counter claimed roles.

I very much believe trini over MoB but understand why it is risky.

Not sure who to believe in the Igor claim though. What about lynching pancake since we are more sure that he is scum?

The counter claimed roles: MoB & betiko. So dazza is protecting MoB who in turn is protecting PCM and ALSO betiko. It seems like there is some kind of connection between these four players. Yes I know dazza suggest lynching PCM but with the current vote count that is more like a mask to me.

Taking everything in account I believe dazza fake-claimed so that would mean Epitaph is cleared. So my scum list:
    1. MoB
    2. PCM
    3. betiko
    4. dazza

All I've left to do is think a bit more on who I believe I want to see lynched first.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby betiko on Wed Feb 15, 2012 3:48 pm

MeDeFe wrote:ok, the last 7 and a half pages have been read and re-read.

The 2 claims and counterclaims give us one important bit of information that I don't think has been explicitly stated yet: Someone we believed to be practically cleared is scum. Either dazza or chapcrap imo. Leitz, I think not. I also don't believe the scum would go to such elaborate lengths as to have one person claim a role and then have someone else counterclaim the same character. We have had a scene with Lock, Shock and Barrel, and a scene with Oogie Boogie. Those 4 are definitely not town. The previous list of unclaimed (excluding me) was:

MoB Deadly
Epitaph1
betiko
trinicardinal
pancakemix

MoB and trini are claiming the reindeer, betiko and Epitaph and claiming Igor, one person from both pairs is town, that leaves us with only 3 candidates for scum. Since I know I'm town I know we need to take a closer look at those we had previously considere practically cleared. If chap hadn't unvoted when he did I would have said he's it, as things are I'm not sure. Luckily we still have our cop and a busdriver. *hint**hint*

I'm believing trini over MoB, trini's night actions make more sense in context and his breadcrumb is far better imo. Bringing up the character trumps talking about what a hypothetical bus driver should do, at the time I even thought it odd to mention the reindeer at all but didn't attach much importance to it. The likelihood of trini pulling that out of nowhere on day 1 and for the reindeer to actually be in the game is quite low.

I'm a bit more uncertain between Epitaph and betiko, but am more inclined to believe Epitaph. He was on both scumlists ONLY uner the assumption that every claim and softclaim (other than one of the trini/MoB pair) up til then had been true, in that situation and with people saying to lynch him since he's on both lists claiming makes sense. The knowledge that there's a backup doctor would also be extremely valuable for the further actions of the busdriver and cop. Betiko's counterclaim makes little to no sense, though, both from a scum and from a town perspective.
If betiko is town he can simply wait and concentrate on the trini/MoB case, if he is nightkilled we all see that he was the real Igor and Epitaph is lynched the next day. If betiko lives through the night he can still counterclaim the next day and make his case then.
If betiko is scum he unnecessarily reduces the amount of uncertainty for town with his fake counterclaim. We know that either he or Epitaph is lying, one is town, one is scum. It's an unnecessary move, unless he deliberately wants to open a third option because he realises that whoever of trini and MoB is town has made the better case, and his scumbuddy is likely to get it. Going for the person who was on both of chap's lists is the best option then.


As things are, I say we decide on a lynch between trini and MoB. That will give us more information than any other option currently on the table. I say we go for MoB for the reasons mentioned above.

vote MoB Deadly

The third person I consider likely to be scum is pcm, he's been dropping small tells, but the big one of "let's lynch Epitaph because he's on both lists" and leaving out that that's only the case under certain assumptions is enough to tip him well over into the scumbase for me.

Then it's either dazza or chapcrap. chap is 3 for 3 townies in the lynching, but his fast volunteering to hammer Rodion did net him some townie points. An investigation is definitely in order there. *hint**hint*



And safari, you might want to count the votes again, one person was voting for MoB in the last one, but there were two against him.

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what you don't understand in my move here is that if we misslynch we lose. if i'm not 100% sure between trini and mob; and someone claims my character, should I just sit back and go for the most likely bus driver; or should I go for the sure scum???
Also trini claiming he busdrvied me last night is pure BS, this tells me he is the liar because I got my result on chap. here is the breadcrumb i left on day 3 that I would use my seeing crystal on chap:

betiko wrote:
Leitz wrote:@ jonty: what does super skim mean?
@ betiko: I'm just saying that because some of you are targeting me because of lack of anything better, it is possible that some mafia will play along and accuse me (=bandwagoning) hence staying 'under the radar'.
@ strike: after going through D2 I too had some supsicion on jonty & Epitaph, but not anything in particular. It's more gut feeling than anything else..


the thing is that we don't have really anything tangible on anyone right now. we can only clear out completely strike and jimfinn; all the rest of us are potential suspects at different levels and we all have different opinions about each other. Targeting someone because we didn't have anything better is what we have been doing all game.
Not having any feedback from jimfinn after last night really sucks; not having any feedback from the watcher as well. we just have to start from scratch again from assumptions. now why not you leitz?
As I said before, leitz and jonty are the 2 guys I have the least opinion about. even if you are bringing much more to the game leitz on this day 3 than before. I don't know if this is just plain vanilla flavour or not..

Epitaph I don't know, he has been doing quite a lot of interesting comments for town during the first half of day 2 in my opinion, then he's been less active, we'll see.

Pancake will have the difficult task to read all this and to reincarnate a player that was very high on my suspect list.

chapcrap... after some rethoughts, I still don't fully get his move... he sure wins some credit by doing what he said he would, but he didn't really have the choice not to, after all he said before and after the rodion claim. what if rodion really turned out bomb??? 0-2 if guessed completely wrong killing including himself; 0-1 if rodion is town but isn't the bomb (nobody really bought that); 1-0 if guessed right? on a scum perspective, it's 1-1 if unlucky, 1-0 if lucky +town credit. Chap has had to answer a lot to that. It could still be a good move from a mafia perspective to win town credit. if you lose well, you still killed the bomb that could've been a real pain for mafia. better kill him ASAP instead of having it busdriven or whatever to perform night kills (all other mobs still being alive so 1 acceptable loss for the cause)... and if it's a fake bombclaim well you've just killed 2 birds with one stone.
Now, could chap be a power role? the answer should be no. a power role would ve reacted like strike. do we risk uncovering a power role by pressuring chap? I see no reason for this. The problem is that if we make chap claim; he will claim VT no matter what his alignment is! so I don't know what to do with all this; probably keep it for day 4.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby dazza2008 on Wed Feb 15, 2012 4:25 pm

Leitz wrote:
dazza2008 wrote:There is a lot of risk in going for 1 of the counter claimed roles.

I very much believe trini over MoB but understand why it is risky.

Not sure who to believe in the Igor claim though. What about lynching pancake since we are more sure that he is scum?

The counter claimed roles: MoB & betiko. So dazza is protecting MoB who in turn is protecting PCM and ALSO betiko. It seems like there is some kind of connection between these four players. Yes I know dazza suggest lynching PCM but with the current vote count that is more like a mask to me.



In what way am I protecting MoB?

I have said all along I do not believe his claim.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby dazza2008 on Wed Feb 15, 2012 4:25 pm

dazza2008 wrote:
Leitz wrote:
dazza2008 wrote:There is a lot of risk in going for 1 of the counter claimed roles.

I very much believe trini over MoB but understand why it is risky.

Not sure who to believe in the Igor claim though. What about lynching pancake since we are more sure that he is scum?

The counter claimed roles: MoB & betiko. So dazza is protecting MoB who in turn is protecting PCM and ALSO betiko. It seems like there is some kind of connection between these four players. Yes I know dazza suggest lynching PCM but with the current vote count that is more like a mask to me.



In what way am I protecting MoB?

I have said all along I do not believe his claim.


Also my vote is still on MoB.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby safariguy5 on Wed Feb 15, 2012 6:24 pm

Vote Count

Mob(2)- dazza, MeDeFe
Epitaph(3)-betiko, MoB, PCM,
betiko(3)- epitaph, jim, trini


With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Rodion v. 2.0 replaces jimfinn.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby Rodion on Wed Feb 15, 2012 7:09 pm

Hi again!

Since Rodion 1.0's demise, I have pretty much skimmed D3 and the beginning of D4, having paid more attention once the massclaim started. I obviously have a lot to say, so don't expect me to spill it in just one post.

Rodion 2.0 has replaced Jimfinn, so I'd like to remember I'm the Mayor, town cop. Disregarding busdrives, N1 showed me Swifte was town and N3 showed me Strike Wolf was town. N2 was a roleblock and the target, if anyone cares, was Strike Wolf.

For now, suffice to say I believe Trini/MoB is 1 town/1 mafia, while Epitaph/Betiko can be either 1 town/1 mafia or 2 mafia.

Oh, yes, I have some important questions for some players!

Trini - why was your contribution to the game so lackluster before entering D4, an almost certain MYLO situation?

MoB - in a game that was provenly filled with vanillas (about half the town population, it seems), why do you think mafia would not roleblock the cop in order to roleblock you? Would you say there could be a town roleblocker between the non-claimed (either Medefe or PCM, it seems, since everyone else claimed)? If so, do you understand why a town roleblocker would have suspected you enough to target you?

Epitaph - did you start as a "backup doctor" or were you just an "universal backup" (substitutes the 1st town power roles that dies) that happened to become a doctor since the first killed PR was the doctor? Or were you originally a VT that got surprised by receiving a N2/D3 PM stating you got doctor powers? This is important for balance reasons, as being a doctor backup carries a different weight than being a backup of whichever PR dies first.

Betiko - did your result state that Chap was "town" or "not mafia"? This is really important in case we have a 3rd-party alive (I'd doubt we'd have a serial killer due to single deaths every night, but there could very well be an arsonist - not sure if flavour fits, though, as I've not seen the movie).

Leitz - please make it clear for me how your 1-way lover mechanics works (you probably already did, perhaps someone else can answer this one for Leitz?): do you die if Jack dies or does Jack die if you die?

PCM - please claim

Medefe - looks like you failed to convince town to allow Rodion 1.0 not to be lynched. Do you agree that you did not try hard enough? Why (why not)?

Dazza - why was your VT claim strong enough to derail your wagon when Rodion 1.0's bomb claim wasn't strong enough to derail his? Consider that a bomb is better than a VT. Do you think mafia helped sway votes away from you after they got you to claim? Why?

Chap - do you think mafia has fakeclaims? If so, why do you think we are seeing a true counterclaiming party?

The breadcrumbing dispute between Trini and MoB reminded me of a Friends episode in which Chandler and Ross were arguing over who had created a joke that got published in a magazine. No, seriously, go see it, the similarities are surprisingly comical! :lol:
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby Rodion on Wed Feb 15, 2012 7:26 pm

I have more questions/observations, but those will have to wait until at least some of the current questions are answered.

I also plan on rereading D3 and D4 (maybe D1 and D2 also) soonish.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby MoB Deadly on Wed Feb 15, 2012 9:01 pm

Lol Rodion 2.0! I have to catch up a little on this game. I will make sure to post by friday at the latest. It looks like everything will be slowed down while we take the time to answer all the questions we can ask before we move forward with a lynch. I think that is definitely the best option. In the mean time I will answer Rodion's question.

Rodion wrote:MoB - in a game that was provenly filled with vanillas (about half the town population, it seems), why do you think mafia would not roleblock the cop in order to roleblock you? Would you say there could be a town roleblocker between the non-claimed (either Medefe or PCM, it seems, since everyone else claimed)? If so, do you understand why a town roleblocker would have suspected you enough to target you?


Well I was thinking that as well when I got the PM saying I was blocked. I thought for sure Jim would be dead then if they took the time to roleblock me. I think the longer the bus is alive in the game, the stronger the bus gets. I have a higher probability every night of switching their mafia kill back on them. I guess they figured that either a guilty result, or a bus back at them would be the worst result for mafia, and they thought I was more likely to bus their kill than Jim was going to get a guilty.

And of course Jim, not being very active does not help his case either, maybe they thought he could possibly miss his night action, or he hasn't done enough research to pick scum on his own.

Or probably they had this fake claim fiasco all planned out ahead of time, knowing we are at or near a MYLO situation.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby chapcrap on Wed Feb 15, 2012 9:22 pm

@Rodion

I must assume that:
  1. mafia either does not have fake claims
  2. they are dumb
  3. all 4 claimed people are mafia
  4. the mafia counterclaimed a townie
I'm not sure which of these is the most likely, but to me, to have 2 claims and counterclaims, it seems like the most likely is that they do not have fake claims. That is unless the claims are just really awful. What would be the point to give fake claims that were the same characters as the towns?

So, either more than 2 of them are mafia (doubtful to me because they don't need to go to that length of deception at this stage in the game, but plausible) or they have no fake claims.

Bearing that in mind, it seems most likely that trini and Epi were scum out of the 4. Trini because he was immediately counter claimed. His claim is good for mafia because they could fish out the busdriver that way. The busdriver is there only real competition at this point. Epi because he was forced to claim and got counter claimed. If betiko was scum, why would he make a second counter claim? It doesn't even make sense.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby trinicardinal on Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:36 am

@ Rodion - lackluster you call it? well if you say so. I've tried to build my cases where things seemed strange but I haven't picked up major scumtells before D4. This is my first time playing a power role and I was also badly shaken by the fact that my N2 bus actually caused the death of our doc rather than protecting him. It has not helped that I guess everyone has been dropping small scumtells and in a game where paranoia rules its tough to sort it out sometimes. I was at one point convinced that Rodion v1.0 was the Godfather since the claim of bomb seemed simply too convenient. It seemed sure that you were lying and in some ways you were. Problem was you weren't lying about your alignment - just your role

Out of my night actions the only thing I was sure about was that MeDeFe had been a target on N2. So I could put some reliance on him being town and ofc I knew I was town - in a game of this size that wasn't much and I didn't want to expose my self too early for mafia to take me out. Our doc was exposed from D1 - I had to try busing him to protect him and after he was killed and jim (now Rodion v 2.0) had been roleblocked it became important that I bus him so that he wouldn't be roleblocked on N3. That idea seemed to have worked and he was able to do an investigation - it was just rotten luck that strike was also the night kill.

D4 - I knew that we were in a bad position and still I wasn't sure what was the best recourse - I did know that anybody getting 2 townie votes on them allowed mafia to speed lynch so I agonised over whether I should claim and finally decided that I needed to. That decision was helped by the fact that the person who was getting the votes at that time was at least someone that I could clear. Also after analysing players I was able to come up with the lists that I did. That gave me some indication of who mafia really were and allowed me to go with my case against pcm who was seeming scummier in my eyes and also fell on my list. I figured that it was good enough to start the ball rolling on a comeback for town and it certainly has made a big difference -

I guess I had to up my game knowing that it was a matter of do or die. I don't have the experience to know what is the best way to play busdriver but I have tried my best and had to really push on D4. Convincing everyone that I am telling the truth while working against 4 mafia anxious to discredit me is difficult but I'm holding strong to my belief that I can show that what I am saying makes sense. MoB has helped to a certain extent quite frankly since it means that town can be sure that one of us is mafia.

Your question to MoB re: why mafia would not roleblock the cop is very similar to one of the points that I raised earlier (here - viewtopic.php?f=213&t=156562&sk=a&start=1425#p3590330)

trinicardinal wrote:5. I find it extremely difficult to believe that mafia would not roleblock our cop (leaving him free to investigate and maybe find one of them) on N3 and, instead, roleblock someone who had no claim out and was therefore a relatively unknown factor and could very easily have been a VT with no night action? - Does[/color] MoB truly expect us to believe that line of reasoning?


Given that MoB has responded a bit to your question I'd also like to deal a bit with that response.


@MoB
MoB Deadly wrote:Lol Rodion 2.0! I have to catch up a little on this game. I will make sure to post by friday at the latest. It looks like everything will be slowed down while we take the time to answer all the questions we can ask before we move forward with a lynch. I think that is definitely the best option. In the mean time I will answer Rodion's question.

Rodion wrote:MoB - in a game that was provenly filled with vanillas (about half the town population, it seems), why do you think mafia would not roleblock the cop in order to roleblock you? Would you say there could be a town roleblocker between the non-claimed (either Medefe or PCM, it seems, since everyone else claimed)? If so, do you understand why a town roleblocker would have suspected you enough to target you?


Well I was thinking that as well when I got the PM saying I was blocked. I thought for sure Jim would be dead then if they took the time to roleblock me. I think the longer the bus is alive in the game, the stronger the bus gets. I have a higher probability every night of switching their mafia kill back on them. I guess they figured that either a guilty result, or a bus back at them would be the worst result for mafia, and they thought I was more likely to bus their kill than Jim was going to get a guilty.

And of course Jim, not being very active does not help his case either, maybe they thought he could possibly miss his night action, or he hasn't done enough research to pick scum on his own.

Or probably they had this fake claim fiasco all planned out ahead of time, knowing we are at or near a MYLO situation.


1. You have to catch up on this game? with such an important time and with counter claims on 2 roles and (you claim) such an important role that you have - you are not up to date? and yet you've been active in your other mafia games which are not at such a crucial stage? I find that strange - I have had to make sure that I am more active to try to make sure that mafia is lynched today.
2. How do you think mafia figured out it was you? they had a number of players to choose from and yet were able to figure out that you were the busdriver?
3. If it really is the case that the longer the bus is alive the stronger the bus gets why roleblock you and not kill you. It seems to me that if they knew it was you then it would make sense to kill you and not just roleblock you and leave you to get stronger.
4. If they already knew you were the busdriver why is it necessary to fakeclaim the busdriver to get you to claim (where you are saying that they already knew who you were)?
5. Why is it necessary to fakeclaim at all with the situation as it was early in D4? Lynch a townie and its pretty much game over.

also dealing with chap's response.

@chap

chapcrap wrote:@Rodion

I must assume that:
  1. mafia either does not have fake claims
  2. they are dumb
  3. all 4 claimed people are mafia
  4. the mafia counterclaimed a townie
I'm not sure which of these is the most likely, but to me, to have 2 claims and counterclaims, it seems like the most likely is that they do not have fake claims. That is unless the claims are just really awful. What would be the point to give fake claims that were the same characters as the towns?

So, either more than 2 of them are mafia (doubtful to me because they don't need to go to that length of deception at this stage in the game, but plausible) or they have no fake claims.

Bearing that in mind, it seems most likely that trini and Epi were scum out of the 4. Trini because he was immediately counter claimed. His claim is good for mafia because they could fish out the busdriver that way. The busdriver is there only real competition at this point. Epi because he was forced to claim and got counter claimed. If betiko was scum, why would he make a second counter claim? It doesn't even make sense.


1. I have operated under the assumption that mafia have been provided with fakeclaims which means that even those that claimed VT are still suspect.
2. I believe that MoB abandoned the fakeclaim that he has been provided with in order to fakeclaim my role because he figured that was the only or best way to try discredit me.
3. The less said about betiko's attempts the better. That was a poorly attempted fakeclaim and I assume that he abandoned the one he was provided with in an attempt to get Epitaph lynched. He obviously didn't work things out properly but was probably getting desperate.
4. At the stage that D4 started with a busdriver was not much competition - I became dangerous when I claimed and brought out the information that I did.
5. I'm surprised that an experienced player like you would consider a counter claim at this stage in these circumstances as strong evidence that the first claim is false. Mafia can just as easily counter claim and I have shown how betiko's counter claim is just plain horrible. He didn't even come up with some original inventions. From the time the busdriver comes out with information that is relevant to town there is a possibility that mafia will fakeclaim to get him lynched. That decision will depend on the individual players and the stage of the game.

I'm sure that there will be a whole lot more to come so I'll leave this here for now.

@ Rodion - what's your next question for me'?
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby dazza2008 on Thu Feb 16, 2012 6:30 am

Rodion wrote:Dazza - why was your VT claim strong enough to derail your wagon when Rodion 1.0's bomb claim wasn't strong enough to derail his? Consider that a bomb is better than a VT. Do you think mafia helped sway votes away from you after they got you to claim? Why?



This to me seems a pretty wierd question. How do I know why I was believed by some? If I was scum I would know that scum helped steer people away from me but I am not. I am a VT so unless I can read minds how the hell do I know why?
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby Leitz on Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:43 pm

Rodion wrote:Leitz - please make it clear for me how your 1-way lover mechanics works (you probably already did, perhaps someone else can answer this one for Leitz?): do you die if Jack dies or does Jack die if you die?

If Jack dies, I die too (only this way --> one-way)
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby Rodion on Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:44 pm

And (without saying who's Jack!) did the PM tell you who he is?
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby Leitz on Thu Feb 16, 2012 6:01 pm

Rodion wrote:And (without saying who's Jack!) did the PM tell you who he is?

Yes it did.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby Rodion on Fri Feb 17, 2012 1:09 am

Epitaph, Betiko, Medefe, PCM, I need you guys! :)
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby chapcrap on Fri Feb 17, 2012 2:33 am

I have gone over everything again and to me, I can't see which side I agree with more. Or disagree with more. All 4 of the claimed people today have done things to make me not believe. I see little from them to make me believe what they say.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby MeDeFe on Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:10 am

Medefe - looks like you failed to convince town to allow Rodion 1.0 not to be lynched. Do you agree that you did not try hard enough? Why (why not)?

You mean Rodion 1.0 got lynched despite my verbosity and me briefly mentioning the possibility of not lynching him, correct? Your syntax is just a tad confusing there.

Considering the enthusiasm with which Rodion 1.0 was arguing for town lynching him, I think I tried hard enough.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby Epitaph1 on Fri Feb 17, 2012 8:14 am

@Rodion. Will you get 2 GA medals if the town wins? haha

My role was originally backup doctor only. I'm not (or wasn't?) a universal backup, and my role was granted in my original pm, not at a later juncture.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby shieldgenerator7 on Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:05 am

I could replace PCM I guess but that'd be weird because he replaced me and I don't wanna have to reread the thread.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby pancakemix on Fri Feb 17, 2012 11:30 am

shieldgenerator7 wrote:I could replace PCM I guess but that'd be weird because he replaced me and I don't wanna have to reread the thread.


I'm far too invested in this one now (which, I know, you wouldn't guess from my activity of late).

Rodion, there is no need for me to claim. The only reason you'd need me to is because there wasn't enough info. There's plenty of info. I also have good reasons otherwise not to.

I really hate how I explained myself and trini and MeDeFe wrote me off as scum without response. Are you going to come to a determination on the counterclaims or are you going to stand there and point fingers at others?
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby Rodion on Fri Feb 17, 2012 1:34 pm

Since Betiko is the last to answer, he gets some bonus questions!

Question number 1 was already asked. Here it is.

Rodion wrote:Betiko - did your result state that Chap was "town" or "not mafia"? This is really important in case we have a 3rd-party alive (I'd doubt we'd have a serial killer due to single deaths every night, but there could very well be an arsonist - not sure if flavour fits, though, as I've not seen the movie).


2 - Do you have a 3rd inventor power? Perhaps a 4th?

3 - You said you've played mafia in real life with your friends. I'd like to know if you have ever seen one of the following roles in one of the games with your friends (if you answer yes to a certain role, please tell how likely they were used in those games):

a) backup doctor
b) backup cop
c) governor
d) jack of all trades (JOAT)
e) tracker
f) watcher
g) jailkeeper
h) bodyguard
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby MoB Deadly on Fri Feb 17, 2012 8:20 pm

wont make it on tonight as promised, will post tomorrow
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby betiko on Sat Feb 18, 2012 8:34 am

Rodion wrote:Since Betiko is the last to answer, he gets some bonus questions!

Question number 1 was already asked. Here it is.

Rodion wrote:Betiko - did your result state that Chap was "town" or "not mafia"? This is really important in case we have a 3rd-party alive (I'd doubt we'd have a serial killer due to single deaths every night, but there could very well be an arsonist - not sure if flavour fits, though, as I've not seen the movie).


2 - Do you have a 3rd inventor power? Perhaps a 4th?

3 - You said you've played mafia in real life with your friends. I'd like to know if you have ever seen one of the following roles in one of the games with your friends (if you answer yes to a certain role, please tell how likely they were used in those games):

a) backup doctor
b) backup cop
c) governor
d) jack of all trades (JOAT)
e) tracker
f) watcher
g) jailkeeper
h) bodyguard


sorry was in madrid for business last week just had time to briefly play cc turns but not to participate in here.

1) neither of these; the feedback I got was just "innocent". I didn't think about it, but do you get an innocent result on a 3rd party role no matter what? a 3rd party can be "good" like a survivor, or "bad" like an arsonist. Anyway, thinking there is a SK or an arsonist in here is just plain silly. There could be a santa claws survivor or something, that would be the only 3rd party role. I think there is no room for this character among us anymore. if there is one, i would say medefe perhaps.

2)I won't answer that question as I see no interest for me to let people know about it.

3) i have played werewolf irl before this, which is a variant of mafia with much more simple roles (little girl that sees at night; hunter that shoots who he wants if lynched; lovers that die if one of them die; witch that can learn the role of the person of her choice and that was about it..). All the other roles are new to me. even if we've been playing this for 5 month lol.

safari didn't want to give tells that jimfinn was a cop plain and square, but he just did by accepting rodion, an ex dead town to reincarnate into him. are replaced players getting medals if their alignment wins by the way?
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 4

Postby Rodion on Sat Feb 18, 2012 3:09 pm

I don't see how Safari confirmed Jim was a cop by accepting me, but I'm not arguing with your conclusion! ;)

Damnit, innocent was a damn good response! Had you answered anything else I'd be more convinced you were lying.

Most questions I created were bogus as in I didn't care about their responses. The plan was not to tip anyone on my current suspicions so they'd possibly lower their guard for scumtells. Didn't quite work as intended, though.

Alright, we are working from the premise that mafia has 4 people. I'm agreeing with Jonty's prediction of godfather, roleblocker and 2 goons since town also has a good ammount of vanillas.

Basically we have one guaranteed mafia between Trini and MoB. Trini would have been the obvious choice if this was not MYLO since he was counterclaimed, but in MYLO-massclaim the counterclaim should not be considered more reliable than the claim. As far as breadcrumbing goes, I didn't like either Trini or MoB, but Trini's made just a little bit more sense. The players they've both decided to switch during the 3 nights seemed reasonable. However, the warning that MoB was roleblocked does not sit well with me. Busdrivers don't usually know.

Regarding Epitaph and Betiko we also have one guaranteed mafia, with the possibility that both are (unlike the Trini/MoB case where Safari's night scene indicated the existence of a busdriver). I don't think I've ever seen a backup doctor, but the favor does fit if he is the doctor's assistant in the movie. Inventor is also a weird role, but what is REALLY weird is the name of the powers (like Trini found in a powerpoint slideshow) and the fact that he waited until N3 to use his investigation. I mean, come on, really? You claim you have 1 investigation and 1 protection. JOATs/Inventors commonly use their investigations on N1 as that is their most important power. I fail to see why an inventor would use nothing on N1, then protect on N2 (and the reason you gave for protecting Swifte on N2 could have been used for protecting him earlier on N1) and only use the investigation on N3, meaning he would not be able to clear/bust anyone at all before D4.

We then have PCM joining Epitaph's wagon with the only reason being "someone must die and he is closer to getting lynched". Flabbergasting. The wagon was good, however, to establish some things.


safariguy5 wrote:Vote Count

Mob(2)- trini, dazza
Epitaph(5)-betiko, leitz, MoB, PCM, chap
betiko(2)- epitaph, jim


With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.


If Epitaph is town and gets lynched, town is down to 5 people with mafia having 4. They just need to block the busdriver and shoot one townie to seal the win. Chap had Epitaph at L-1 for about 1 day and nobody hammered.

That means that if Epitaph flips town later on the game, we should consider Dazza cleared. Possibly Medefe too (I don't know if he was online to make the game-winning hammer when the opportunity presented itself, so I can't certainly tell if that would make Medefe town or not, but most likely it would).

If Epitaph is town, mafia is pretty much guaranteed to be MoB, Betiko, PCM and Leitz/Chap.

Anyway, at this point I pretty much think we need to get both PCM and Medefe to claim. We could possibly get both claiming Jack and Leitz would be forced to pick one of them. That should give us a better comprehension of the possible mafia groups. If only one claims Jack, then he is cleared and we'll go from there in assembling the puzzle of who has to die.
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