Moderator: Community Team
saxitoxin wrote:Your position is more complex than the federal tax code. As soon as I think I understand it, I find another index of cross-references, exceptions and amendments I have to apply.
Timminz wrote:Yo mama is so classless, she could be a Marxist utopia.
dazza2008 wrote:There is a lot of risk in going for 1 of the counter claimed roles.
I very much believe trini over MoB but understand why it is risky.
Not sure who to believe in the Igor claim though. What about lynching pancake since we are more sure that he is scum?
MeDeFe wrote:ok, the last 7 and a half pages have been read and re-read.
The 2 claims and counterclaims give us one important bit of information that I don't think has been explicitly stated yet: Someone we believed to be practically cleared is scum. Either dazza or chapcrap imo. Leitz, I think not. I also don't believe the scum would go to such elaborate lengths as to have one person claim a role and then have someone else counterclaim the same character. We have had a scene with Lock, Shock and Barrel, and a scene with Oogie Boogie. Those 4 are definitely not town. The previous list of unclaimed (excluding me) was:
MoB Deadly
Epitaph1
betiko
trinicardinal
pancakemix
MoB and trini are claiming the reindeer, betiko and Epitaph and claiming Igor, one person from both pairs is town, that leaves us with only 3 candidates for scum. Since I know I'm town I know we need to take a closer look at those we had previously considere practically cleared. If chap hadn't unvoted when he did I would have said he's it, as things are I'm not sure. Luckily we still have our cop and a busdriver. *hint**hint*
I'm believing trini over MoB, trini's night actions make more sense in context and his breadcrumb is far better imo. Bringing up the character trumps talking about what a hypothetical bus driver should do, at the time I even thought it odd to mention the reindeer at all but didn't attach much importance to it. The likelihood of trini pulling that out of nowhere on day 1 and for the reindeer to actually be in the game is quite low.
I'm a bit more uncertain between Epitaph and betiko, but am more inclined to believe Epitaph. He was on both scumlists ONLY uner the assumption that every claim and softclaim (other than one of the trini/MoB pair) up til then had been true, in that situation and with people saying to lynch him since he's on both lists claiming makes sense. The knowledge that there's a backup doctor would also be extremely valuable for the further actions of the busdriver and cop. Betiko's counterclaim makes little to no sense, though, both from a scum and from a town perspective.
If betiko is town he can simply wait and concentrate on the trini/MoB case, if he is nightkilled we all see that he was the real Igor and Epitaph is lynched the next day. If betiko lives through the night he can still counterclaim the next day and make his case then.
If betiko is scum he unnecessarily reduces the amount of uncertainty for town with his fake counterclaim. We know that either he or Epitaph is lying, one is town, one is scum. It's an unnecessary move, unless he deliberately wants to open a third option because he realises that whoever of trini and MoB is town has made the better case, and his scumbuddy is likely to get it. Going for the person who was on both of chap's lists is the best option then.
As things are, I say we decide on a lynch between trini and MoB. That will give us more information than any other option currently on the table. I say we go for MoB for the reasons mentioned above.
vote MoB Deadly
The third person I consider likely to be scum is pcm, he's been dropping small tells, but the big one of "let's lynch Epitaph because he's on both lists" and leaving out that that's only the case under certain assumptions is enough to tip him well over into the scumbase for me.
Then it's either dazza or chapcrap. chap is 3 for 3 townies in the lynching, but his fast volunteering to hammer Rodion did net him some townie points. An investigation is definitely in order there. *hint**hint*
And safari, you might want to count the votes again, one person was voting for MoB in the last one, but there were two against him.
betiko wrote:Leitz wrote:@ jonty: what does super skim mean?
@ betiko: I'm just saying that because some of you are targeting me because of lack of anything better, it is possible that some mafia will play along and accuse me (=bandwagoning) hence staying 'under the radar'.
@ strike: after going through D2 I too had some supsicion on jonty & Epitaph, but not anything in particular. It's more gut feeling than anything else..
the thing is that we don't have really anything tangible on anyone right now. we can only clear out completely strike and jimfinn; all the rest of us are potential suspects at different levels and we all have different opinions about each other. Targeting someone because we didn't have anything better is what we have been doing all game.
Not having any feedback from jimfinn after last night really sucks; not having any feedback from the watcher as well. we just have to start from scratch again from assumptions. now why not you leitz?
As I said before, leitz and jonty are the 2 guys I have the least opinion about. even if you are bringing much more to the game leitz on this day 3 than before. I don't know if this is just plain vanilla flavour or not..
Epitaph I don't know, he has been doing quite a lot of interesting comments for town during the first half of day 2 in my opinion, then he's been less active, we'll see.
Pancake will have the difficult task to read all this and to reincarnate a player that was very high on my suspect list.
chapcrap... after some rethoughts, I still don't fully get his move... he sure wins some credit by doing what he said he would, but he didn't really have the choice not to, after all he said before and after the rodion claim. what if rodion really turned out bomb??? 0-2 if guessed completely wrong killing including himself; 0-1 if rodion is town but isn't the bomb (nobody really bought that); 1-0 if guessed right? on a scum perspective, it's 1-1 if unlucky, 1-0 if lucky +town credit. Chap has had to answer a lot to that. It could still be a good move from a mafia perspective to win town credit. if you lose well, you still killed the bomb that could've been a real pain for mafia. better kill him ASAP instead of having it busdriven or whatever to perform night kills (all other mobs still being alive so 1 acceptable loss for the cause)... and if it's a fake bombclaim well you've just killed 2 birds with one stone.
Now, could chap be a power role? the answer should be no. a power role would ve reacted like strike. do we risk uncovering a power role by pressuring chap? I see no reason for this. The problem is that if we make chap claim; he will claim VT no matter what his alignment is! so I don't know what to do with all this; probably keep it for day 4.
Leitz wrote:dazza2008 wrote:There is a lot of risk in going for 1 of the counter claimed roles.
I very much believe trini over MoB but understand why it is risky.
Not sure who to believe in the Igor claim though. What about lynching pancake since we are more sure that he is scum?
The counter claimed roles: MoB & betiko. So dazza is protecting MoB who in turn is protecting PCM and ALSO betiko. It seems like there is some kind of connection between these four players. Yes I know dazza suggest lynching PCM but with the current vote count that is more like a mask to me.
dazza2008 wrote:Leitz wrote:dazza2008 wrote:There is a lot of risk in going for 1 of the counter claimed roles.
I very much believe trini over MoB but understand why it is risky.
Not sure who to believe in the Igor claim though. What about lynching pancake since we are more sure that he is scum?
The counter claimed roles: MoB & betiko. So dazza is protecting MoB who in turn is protecting PCM and ALSO betiko. It seems like there is some kind of connection between these four players. Yes I know dazza suggest lynching PCM but with the current vote count that is more like a mask to me.
In what way am I protecting MoB?
I have said all along I do not believe his claim.
Rodion wrote:MoB - in a game that was provenly filled with vanillas (about half the town population, it seems), why do you think mafia would not roleblock the cop in order to roleblock you? Would you say there could be a town roleblocker between the non-claimed (either Medefe or PCM, it seems, since everyone else claimed)? If so, do you understand why a town roleblocker would have suspected you enough to target you?
trinicardinal wrote:5. I find it extremely difficult to believe that mafia would not roleblock our cop (leaving him free to investigate and maybe find one of them) on N3 and, instead, roleblock someone who had no claim out and was therefore a relatively unknown factor and could very easily have been a VT with no night action? - Does[/color] MoB truly expect us to believe that line of reasoning?
MoB Deadly wrote:Lol Rodion 2.0! I have to catch up a little on this game. I will make sure to post by friday at the latest. It looks like everything will be slowed down while we take the time to answer all the questions we can ask before we move forward with a lynch. I think that is definitely the best option. In the mean time I will answer Rodion's question.Rodion wrote:MoB - in a game that was provenly filled with vanillas (about half the town population, it seems), why do you think mafia would not roleblock the cop in order to roleblock you? Would you say there could be a town roleblocker between the non-claimed (either Medefe or PCM, it seems, since everyone else claimed)? If so, do you understand why a town roleblocker would have suspected you enough to target you?
Well I was thinking that as well when I got the PM saying I was blocked. I thought for sure Jim would be dead then if they took the time to roleblock me. I think the longer the bus is alive in the game, the stronger the bus gets. I have a higher probability every night of switching their mafia kill back on them. I guess they figured that either a guilty result, or a bus back at them would be the worst result for mafia, and they thought I was more likely to bus their kill than Jim was going to get a guilty.
And of course Jim, not being very active does not help his case either, maybe they thought he could possibly miss his night action, or he hasn't done enough research to pick scum on his own.
Or probably they had this fake claim fiasco all planned out ahead of time, knowing we are at or near a MYLO situation.
chapcrap wrote:@Rodion
I must assume that:I'm not sure which of these is the most likely, but to me, to have 2 claims and counterclaims, it seems like the most likely is that they do not have fake claims. That is unless the claims are just really awful. What would be the point to give fake claims that were the same characters as the towns?
- mafia either does not have fake claims
- they are dumb
- all 4 claimed people are mafia
- the mafia counterclaimed a townie
So, either more than 2 of them are mafia (doubtful to me because they don't need to go to that length of deception at this stage in the game, but plausible) or they have no fake claims.
Bearing that in mind, it seems most likely that trini and Epi were scum out of the 4. Trini because he was immediately counter claimed. His claim is good for mafia because they could fish out the busdriver that way. The busdriver is there only real competition at this point. Epi because he was forced to claim and got counter claimed. If betiko was scum, why would he make a second counter claim? It doesn't even make sense.
Rodion wrote:Dazza - why was your VT claim strong enough to derail your wagon when Rodion 1.0's bomb claim wasn't strong enough to derail his? Consider that a bomb is better than a VT. Do you think mafia helped sway votes away from you after they got you to claim? Why?
Rodion wrote:Leitz - please make it clear for me how your 1-way lover mechanics works (you probably already did, perhaps someone else can answer this one for Leitz?): do you die if Jack dies or does Jack die if you die?
Rodion wrote:And (without saying who's Jack!) did the PM tell you who he is?
Medefe - looks like you failed to convince town to allow Rodion 1.0 not to be lynched. Do you agree that you did not try hard enough? Why (why not)?
saxitoxin wrote:Your position is more complex than the federal tax code. As soon as I think I understand it, I find another index of cross-references, exceptions and amendments I have to apply.
Timminz wrote:Yo mama is so classless, she could be a Marxist utopia.
everywhere116 wrote:You da man! Well, not really, because we're colorful ponies, but you get the idea.
shieldgenerator7 wrote:I could replace PCM I guess but that'd be weird because he replaced me and I don't wanna have to reread the thread.
aage wrote:Never trust CYOC or pancake.
Rodion wrote:Betiko - did your result state that Chap was "town" or "not mafia"? This is really important in case we have a 3rd-party alive (I'd doubt we'd have a serial killer due to single deaths every night, but there could very well be an arsonist - not sure if flavour fits, though, as I've not seen the movie).
Rodion wrote:Since Betiko is the last to answer, he gets some bonus questions!
Question number 1 was already asked. Here it is.Rodion wrote:Betiko - did your result state that Chap was "town" or "not mafia"? This is really important in case we have a 3rd-party alive (I'd doubt we'd have a serial killer due to single deaths every night, but there could very well be an arsonist - not sure if flavour fits, though, as I've not seen the movie).
2 - Do you have a 3rd inventor power? Perhaps a 4th?
3 - You said you've played mafia in real life with your friends. I'd like to know if you have ever seen one of the following roles in one of the games with your friends (if you answer yes to a certain role, please tell how likely they were used in those games):
a) backup doctor
b) backup cop
c) governor
d) jack of all trades (JOAT)
e) tracker
f) watcher
g) jailkeeper
h) bodyguard
safariguy5 wrote:Vote Count
Mob(2)- trini, dazza
Epitaph(5)-betiko, leitz, MoB, PCM, chap
betiko(2)- epitaph, jim
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users