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Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby Iron Butterfly on Tue Oct 29, 2013 3:07 pm

A no lynch is pointless in this format. If we have a 5 VT 2 goon setup then a no lynch is a free kill for mafia and we would be no better off then we were day one.

Most of the time unless there is a blatant scum tell or Town gets lucky, day one is usually a mis lynch. While it may sound bad at first it also narrows the pool and improves the odds of catching mafia.

If we are in a 5 VT 2 goon set up then are only tool we have to catch mafia is to lynch. We would absolutely have to lynch for Town to win.

What makes this set up interesting is that we could have a best case set up as well. Again though the only way to get scum is to lynch.
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Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby The Weird One on Tue Oct 29, 2013 3:23 pm

Iron Butterfly wrote:A no lynch is pointless in this format. If we have a 5 VT 2 goon setup then a no lynch is a free kill for mafia and we would be no better off then we were day one.

Most of the time unless there is a blatant scum tell or Town gets lucky, day one is usually a mis lynch. While it may sound bad at first it also narrows the pool and improves the odds of catching mafia.

If we are in a 5 VT 2 goon set up then are only tool we have to catch mafia is to lynch. We would absolutely have to lynch for Town to win.

What makes this set up interesting is that we could have a best case set up as well. Again though the only way to get scum is to lynch.


Agreed...But the question remains of who to lynch on day 1.
sheepofdumb wrote:I'm not scum, just a threat to the town. There's a difference, thank you very much.

ga7 wrote: I'll keep my vote where it should be but just in case Vote Strike Wolf AND f*ck FLAMINGOS f*ck THEM HARD
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Re: Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby epic pie on Tue Oct 29, 2013 4:02 pm

Hm, your post had me feeling you were agreeing with it. Tone is hard to feel through text.
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Re: Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby The Weird One on Tue Oct 29, 2013 4:42 pm

epic pie wrote:Hm, your post had me feeling you were agreeing with it. Tone is hard to feel through text.

Who was agreeing with what? [my post was very obviously in agreement with IB...I think I said that in it...so I'm assuming you mean another post]
sheepofdumb wrote:I'm not scum, just a threat to the town. There's a difference, thank you very much.

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Re: Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby mtamburini on Tue Oct 29, 2013 6:29 pm

Alright who is going to come clean on their role? The more claims we have the better chance we have of figuring out what kind of set up we have and if their is any counter claims.
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Re: Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby epic pie on Tue Oct 29, 2013 6:56 pm

Yes TWO, I was referring to virus'es post.
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Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby JamesKer1 on Tue Oct 29, 2013 7:17 pm

I have failed to notice some of these until now. Much of my playing has been restricted to my phone, so I apologize. I would have picked up on this and responded to it much sooner.

mtamburini wrote:I don't think well get a lynch today. I think after the nights events we will have a better understanding of what's going on.


mtamburini wrote:There is only one situation where there are no night time duties. So odds are one of us can preform a night task.


mtamburini wrote:So we expect to randomly lynch on day 1 to win?


mtamburini wrote:Alright who is going to come clean on their role? The more claims we have the better chance we have of figuring out what kind of set up we have and if their is any counter claims.


Are you new? If so, it is totally ok, I just want to know before I judge. Haven't seen a direct "Yes I am new" so wanted to double check before making assumptions. But it appears that you are pushing for a no lynch (you even voted for it), and a mass claiming- a very mafia-like agenda. With these, mafia will get free power role kills, know if there are any, and the town is constantly put closer to its doom.

If we have no PR's by the way, Colton, you have screwed us over big time and sealed the mafia's win pretty much.
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Re: Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby mtamburini on Tue Oct 29, 2013 7:20 pm

I am new
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Re: Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby JamesKer1 on Tue Oct 29, 2013 7:27 pm

mtamburini wrote:I am new


Alright, sounds good. I won't act upon that ;) Wish some people (not all necessarily, and definitely none in this game) in my first gave would have forgiven me more! :lol:

Just putting my thoughts out there, only thing that really popped out at me so far. Definitely suspicious of the whole editing-forgetting incident with pie though... accident's happen, so I'm not too worried about the editing, but "forgetting"? Busy rl or something mate?

Unvote TWO. Speaking of accidents, don't want to cause any by leaving my vote there.
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Re: Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby gregwolf121 on Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:26 pm

well still not much of note,
and yes james in general mafia is lenient towards new players that being said if too many scum tells pile up we lynch them anyways,

well it seems we don't have any leads to go off of, so if all were doing is sitting around waiting, we might as well go with a no lynch so that we can move on to the night and hopefully we have some protown power roles that can get us some information to use, i'll wait a day or so to see if anybody comes up with something that we can go off of, if not i say we go with a no lynch
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Re: Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby virus90 on Wed Oct 30, 2013 5:01 am

JamesKer1 wrote:Alright, sounds good. I won't act upon that ;) Wish some people (not all necessarily, and definitely none in this game) in my first gave would have forgiven me more! :lol:


but with so many new you should not let that make up to much of your mind i guess, i mean: better leave the best players alive right? unless you get scummy vibes with some experienced player ofcourse... Because in a scenario with us lynching an experienced player and the mob adding a second dead experienced player in the night... Well that probably would be the end of the game ?
as pointed out before, i am new as well but i stay with my point just made...

For the record, i probably am the only one whose native language is not English, except if mtam..... is from the french speaking part of canada, so excuse me for any errors in English, and if any of my sentences are not clear, i gladly try a second time. also there are cultural differences, this quote is a pretty nice one about the dutch: "Their directness gives many the impression that they are rude and crude—attributes they prefer to call ā€˜openness" just wanted to point that out cause its funny :P
oh and yes, i wear wooden shoes, live in a windmill, eat cheese and play hockey, and of course i mean field hockey. :P
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Re: Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby epic pie on Wed Oct 30, 2013 8:22 am

James, my school load is ridiculous right now, 2nd semester of Year 3 high school; on top of that, my grandparents are visiting this week. So yes, I am busy irl.

Virus, understandable, I will keep that in mind.
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Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby gregwolf121 on Wed Oct 30, 2013 6:27 pm

well i willunvote, and vote no lynch for those of you who will question this decision its for the reasons i provided in my last post, mainly that we are basically just sitting here waiting for someone to do something, which is pointless, and if this limited activity goes on for too long people will lose interest and the game will die. so since were are just sitting here, and i for one haven't spotted any scum tells that i wish to pursue, meaning that i have a few gut feelings but no case. i say we end the day and hopefully we have some town power roles that will get some info for us tonight.
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Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby The Weird One on Wed Oct 30, 2013 6:31 pm

I'm generally a strong advocate against the no lynch [as previously displayed], but I really have to agree with you, greg...I'm in three games, right now, that are all stalled out...in the hopes of something happening: unvote vote no lynch
sheepofdumb wrote:I'm not scum, just a threat to the town. There's a difference, thank you very much.

ga7 wrote: I'll keep my vote where it should be but just in case Vote Strike Wolf AND f*ck FLAMINGOS f*ck THEM HARD
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Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby Iron Butterfly on Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:06 pm

gregwolf121 wrote:well i willunvote, and vote no lynch for those of you who will question this decision its for the reasons i provided in my last post, mainly that we are basically just sitting here waiting for someone to do something, which is pointless, and if this limited activity goes on for too long people will lose interest and the game will die. so since were are just sitting here, and i for one haven't spotted any scum tells that i wish to pursue, meaning that i have a few gut feelings but no case. i say we end the day and hopefully we have some town power roles that will get some info for us tonight.


Vote gregwold

And your last case completely overlooked the case against a no lynch.

With out knowing the format you play right into the hands of mafia. If this is a 2 goon 5 VT game there will be no night actions and we will be right where we left off. These types of games are short and sweet. Mafia is not going tobe waving any big flags that say "look at me"

Town can only win if they lynch.

Town can only know what format we are in when someone dies and they flip Town or Mafia.

Even if we are in a format where Town has a role blocker or doc the doc will only help if they can guess who is being killed. The role blocker not only has to guess who is mafia they have to guess which will make a kill, so the role will be blind luck.

You are no noob to mafia Greg and in a game this small a no lynch benifits mafia because they wont get targeted and a lynch will benifit Town because we may hit mafia.
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Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby The Weird One on Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:16 pm

Iron Butterfly wrote:
gregwolf121 wrote:well i willunvote, and vote no lynch for those of you who will question this decision its for the reasons i provided in my last post, mainly that we are basically just sitting here waiting for someone to do something, which is pointless, and if this limited activity goes on for too long people will lose interest and the game will die. so since were are just sitting here, and i for one haven't spotted any scum tells that i wish to pursue, meaning that i have a few gut feelings but no case. i say we end the day and hopefully we have some town power roles that will get some info for us tonight.


Vote gregwold

And your last case completely overlooked the case against a no lynch.

With out knowing the format you play right into the hands of mafia. If this is a 2 goon 5 VT game there will be no night actions and we will be right where we left off. These types of games are short and sweet. Mafia is not going tobe waving any big flags that say "look at me"

Town can only win if they lynch.

Town can only know what format we are in when someone dies and they flip Town or Mafia.

Even if we are in a format where Town has a role blocker or doc the doc will only help if they can guess who is being killed. The role blocker not only has to guess who is mafia they have to guess which will make a kill, so the role will be blind luck.

You are no noob to mafia Greg and in a game this small a no lynch benifits mafia because they wont get targeted and a lynch will benifit Town because we may hit mafia.

His reasoning was more along the lines of "for the love of gods, let's have something happen" than "this is a great idea that is a smart move" ...
sheepofdumb wrote:I'm not scum, just a threat to the town. There's a difference, thank you very much.

ga7 wrote: I'll keep my vote where it should be but just in case Vote Strike Wolf AND f*ck FLAMINGOS f*ck THEM HARD
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Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby Iron Butterfly on Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:29 pm

So do you speak for Greg or do you care one way or the other for a no lynch vs lynch?
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Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby The Weird One on Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:40 pm

Iron Butterfly wrote:So do you speak for Greg or do you care one way or the other for a no lynch vs lynch?

I do not speak for Greg...That was just my interpretation of his reasoning. Yes, I'd rather a lynch, but at the same time, I feel like all of the games I'm in, presently are bogged down with inactivity...this looked like a way to have something start happening. It turns out it was successful in getting at least one other person active in the thread [yes, I'm just as guilty of inactivity].
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Re: Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby JamesKer1 on Wed Oct 30, 2013 9:15 pm

IB, that's a case out of nothing. In my right mind, I would vote you for it... But I'm feeling a little delusional tonight.
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Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby gregwolf121 on Thu Oct 31, 2013 12:37 am

Iron Butterfly wrote:
gregwolf121 wrote:well i willunvote, and vote no lynch for those of you who will question this decision its for the reasons i provided in my last post, mainly that we are basically just sitting here waiting for someone to do something, which is pointless, and if this limited activity goes on for too long people will lose interest and the game will die. so since were are just sitting here, and i for one haven't spotted any scum tells that i wish to pursue, meaning that i have a few gut feelings but no case. i say we end the day and hopefully we have some town power roles that will get some info for us tonight.


Vote gregwold

And your last case completely overlooked the case against a no lynch.

With out knowing the format you play right into the hands of mafia. If this is a 2 goon 5 VT game there will be no night actions and we will be right where we left off. These types of games are short and sweet. Mafia is not going tobe waving any big flags that say "look at me"

Town can only win if they lynch.

Town can only know what format we are in when someone dies and they flip Town or Mafia.

Even if we are in a format where Town has a role blocker or doc the doc will only help if they can guess who is being killed. The role blocker not only has to guess who is mafia they have to guess which will make a kill, so the role will be blind luck.

You are no noob to mafia Greg and in a game this small a no lynch benifits mafia because they wont get targeted and a lynch will benifit Town because we may hit mafia.


you know this is basically the argument that i thought you would raise, so there are five possible set ups, the worse one is that it is 2 goons and 5 vts, so we have a 20% chance of this being the format,
no i don't know what the format is but there is a 80% chance that there is a town power that can work at night,
they problem i have with lynching right now is that we have no suspects, yeah there are some that aren't posting but thats always been a weak case, i think thats the only kind of case that could reasonably be acted on, yes i know you have your vote on my because i dared to suggest a no lynch to move the day along rather than sit and do nothing,
generally i would agree with you that lynching is good, but in this case where we have nothing it would help mafia more than town, why, because it is highly doubtful that the person we lynch will flip mafia so all we would have done is lynch a townie, and with the mafia's night kill thats two dead townies, and assuming that their are two goons the town would then be one miss lynch away from mafia winning, i'll do the math so all can follow my line of thinking
we lynch day 1-if they flip town, (there is a highly probability that this will happen)
then it would be 6/7 the mafia has there night kill and we start day two
5/7, assuming there are two goons that would leave 3 town members and 2 goons, a no lynch here would mean town loses, and if we lynch the wrong person again town loses

in other words if we can't afford to lynch a townie on day one and i'll say again we have no leads on mafia at this moment, so unless someone has a good solid case they would like to share with the rest of us ill stick with no lynch, because in fact it does help the town more than a mislynch would

the difference were having right now is that you would rather put your trust in the off-chance that we would be lucky enough to lynch mafia today, and i'm putting my trust in that we have town power roles to help us out.
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Re: Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby virus90 on Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:59 am

just a technicality: colton?
half players alive + 1 equals? (7/2)+1 = 4.5 ? so 4 or 5 vote's for a majority with us 7 being alive?

3 our of 5 possibilities have 2 goons which makes it an 1/3 chance for a TOWNIE to vote on MAFIA (since you already know what you are yourself). If you add up gut feeling i think the odds are over or about 50 % to lynch mafia. for 3 out of 5 scenarios. So i would rather take my chance on voting.
In the other scenarios with only 1 goon we can still win in my opinion if we end up with 1 in 5 being a goon.
in 3 of the 5 cases not voting would leave you with 2 mafia and 6 players cause someone gets night killed, and the question would be if you would find out anything more then you know now. as a doc you have to guess who would be killed, which is pretty random because no one has claimed a role. there is a roleblocker in 2 scenarios, in scenario 1 he has a 1 in 6 chance of blocking the goon, and a 2/6 chance of blocking a towny. in scenario 2 he just gets a 1 in 6 chance of blocking mafia. In both scenarios the odds are 1/6 in being successful, only good thing about it is that the roleblocker would know who is towny. so he has a better shot of finding the goon, if the towny or himself is not killed (2/6 chance either one of them gets killed). Well the cop obviously is a nice thing to have, unfortunately only there in 2/5 scenarios.
So being a VT I dont have a clue what scenario we are in. For anyone of you who knows what scenario we are in, or has a clue, the odds,ofcourse are different then being portrayed here.
To conclude: In my opinion: we should just lynch someone, hope for the best.

To sum up how i see the camps divided right now, and please correct me if im wrong
People who prefer No lynch:
The Weird One
Gregwolf
mtamburini

People who prefer lynch:
Virus90
Iron Butterfly
Epic Pie (i guess so but not sure)

Dont have a clue where he stands:
Jameskerr
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Re: Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby epic pie on Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:15 am

I'm agreeing with virus, the math is very compelling to vote.
TWO, you don't want stuff to happen in Mafia, you want to take up as much time in a day as possible to gather more information...We are all fairly active and posting, so there is no reason to railroad a majority vote.
Also, on page 2, colton said
Day 1 is a go! With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch
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Re: Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby JamesKer1 on Thu Oct 31, 2013 1:41 pm

Sorry virus, I'm just standing. No where in particular :)
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Re: Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby The Weird One on Thu Oct 31, 2013 2:11 pm

virus90 wrote:To sum up how i see the camps divided right now, and please correct me if im wrong
People who prefer No lynch:
The Weird One
Gregwolf
mtamburini


As requested: I don't prefer a no lynch...in fact: unvote...now that that's out of the way, let me try to explain, once more: I want activity. If this takes a night happening without a lynch, then so be it. That being said, I would rather a lynch.
sheepofdumb wrote:I'm not scum, just a threat to the town. There's a difference, thank you very much.

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Re: Neighborhood Mafia (7/7) Day 1: Not So Crime Free

Postby The Weird One on Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:06 pm

Oh, bugger, I'm an idiot... Unvote
sheepofdumb wrote:I'm not scum, just a threat to the town. There's a difference, thank you very much.

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