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Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby AndyDufresne on Mon May 18, 2015 12:25 pm

I'd like to check in with our CC operative on the ground. GoranZ, can you report?

By RICK LYMAN - MAY 18, 2015 - via NY Times wrote:WARSAW — The leaders of Macedonia’s top political parties met for several hours Monday, but were unable to resolve the festering political crisis that has rocked that Balkan nation.

Tens of thousands of protesters had taken to the streets of the capital, Skopje, on Sunday to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, whose conservative and increasingly authoritarian government has been under fire for months over a wiretapping scandal.

Mr. Gruevski held talks Monday with Zoran Zaev, the leader of the largest opposition party, the left-wing Social Democrats, as well as Ali Ahmeti and Menduh Thaci, whose parties represent Macedonia’s ethnic Albanian minority. Jess L. Baily, the American ambassador, and Aivo Orav, the European Union representative in Skopje, also took part.

Officials said that three of the party leaders, including Mr. Gruevski, favored forming some sort of working group to devise a solution to the problem. But Mr. Zaev continued to insist that Mr. Gruevski leave office and turn over power to a transitional government that would enact reforms and pave the way to new elections.

A new round of negotiations was set for May 26.

A gathering of Mr. Gruevski’s supporters, which government supporters said would dwarf the size of the protest crowd on Sunday, was scheduled for Monday evening outside Parliament.

Beginning in February, Mr. Zaev has released a series of what he calls “bombs,” audio excerpts from what the opposition claims are 670,000 secretly recorded conversations from more than 20,000 Macedonian telephone numbers. In the released recordings, top government officials are heard plotting how to rig votes, buy off judges and punish political opponents.

Three top government officials have already resigned in the crisis, but that has not mollified protesters.

Mr. Zaev said the recordings were made by the government and leaked to the opposition.

Mr. Gruevski has said that the recordings were made at the direction of the “intelligence services” of an unnamed foreign country. Several current and former civil servants have been charged with aiding this effort. Mr. Zaev has been charged with threatening violence against the prime minister.

After thousands of protesters gathered Sunday outside the prime minister’s office — the government put the size of the crowd at 20,000, the opposition claimed there were two or three times that many, perhaps more — a smaller contingent set up an encampment and vowed to remain there until Mr. Gruevski resigned.

“We came here and we don’t plan to go until Gruevski resigns,” Mr. Zaev told the crowd.

Fewer than 1,000 of the protesters remained Monday afternoon, lounging in and around tents covered with protest banners and flags, dancing, listening to music and playing cards and chess to pass the time.

“We came here not only to protest but to show that the citizens of this country are not those who should be afraid anymore,” said Aleksandar Trajanov, 21, a university student. “It is the government and the political parties that should fear the citizens.”

Aleksandar Dimishkovski contributed reporting from Skopje, Macedonia.



--Andy
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby GoranZ on Mon May 18, 2015 9:25 pm

AndyDufresne wrote:I'd like to check in with our CC operative on the ground. GoranZ, can you report?

By RICK LYMAN - MAY 18, 2015 - via NY Times wrote:WARSAW — The leaders of Macedonia’s top political parties met for several hours Monday, but were unable to resolve the festering political crisis that has rocked that Balkan nation.

Tens of thousands of protesters had taken to the streets of the capital, Skopje, on Sunday to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, whose conservative and increasingly authoritarian government has been under fire for months over a wiretapping scandal.

Mr. Gruevski held talks Monday with Zoran Zaev, the leader of the largest opposition party, the left-wing Social Democrats, as well as Ali Ahmeti and Menduh Thaci, whose parties represent Macedonia’s ethnic Albanian minority. Jess L. Baily, the American ambassador, and Aivo Orav, the European Union representative in Skopje, also took part.

Officials said that three of the party leaders, including Mr. Gruevski, favored forming some sort of working group to devise a solution to the problem. But Mr. Zaev continued to insist that Mr. Gruevski leave office and turn over power to a transitional government that would enact reforms and pave the way to new elections.

A new round of negotiations was set for May 26.

A gathering of Mr. Gruevski’s supporters, which government supporters said would dwarf the size of the protest crowd on Sunday, was scheduled for Monday evening outside Parliament.

Beginning in February, Mr. Zaev has released a series of what he calls “bombs,” audio excerpts from what the opposition claims are 670,000 secretly recorded conversations from more than 20,000 Macedonian telephone numbers. In the released recordings, top government officials are heard plotting how to rig votes, buy off judges and punish political opponents.

Three top government officials have already resigned in the crisis, but that has not mollified protesters.

Mr. Zaev said the recordings were made by the government and leaked to the opposition.

Mr. Gruevski has said that the recordings were made at the direction of the “intelligence services” of an unnamed foreign country. Several current and former civil servants have been charged with aiding this effort. Mr. Zaev has been charged with threatening violence against the prime minister.

After thousands of protesters gathered Sunday outside the prime minister’s office — the government put the size of the crowd at 20,000, the opposition claimed there were two or three times that many, perhaps more — a smaller contingent set up an encampment and vowed to remain there until Mr. Gruevski resigned.

“We came here and we don’t plan to go until Gruevski resigns,” Mr. Zaev told the crowd.

Fewer than 1,000 of the protesters remained Monday afternoon, lounging in and around tents covered with protest banners and flags, dancing, listening to music and playing cards and chess to pass the time.

“We came here not only to protest but to show that the citizens of this country are not those who should be afraid anymore,” said Aleksandar Trajanov, 21, a university student. “It is the government and the political parties that should fear the citizens.”

Aleksandar Dimishkovski contributed reporting from Skopje, Macedonia.



--Andy


Forget that... its all bureaucratic rubbish(very close to Brussels one).

The real problems is hidden beneath the blanket. There are two actually, one internal and one external.

The government and the administration is heavily corrupted, but its like that for the last 20 years, its not something new. Drastic reforms are needed but no Macedonian government in the last 20 years didn't took a single step to deal with the problem, because its easier to get votes based on populism then on painful reforms. This is why I always say that western type of democracy is not a democracy as it should be. If everyone's vote is accounted for, regardless if he voted or not then the influence of the populism will be reduced to worthless, and politicians will be forced to work a lot more then they are doing it now.

Second problem, incomparably bigger then the first. The new Russian pipeline "Turkish Stream" is projected to have its main route threw my country. It is projected that only on the basis of taxes Macedonian budget will get 10% of its income from this pipeline caring gas to Europe. Thats a lot of money and West(EU/US) will try very hard for this project to fail. My country is unfortunately the weakest link in the chain. I do hope that regardless who will come to power the pipeline will be build and western wardogs will fail in their attempts, but only time will tell.

What will happen in my country?
-Demonstrations and negotiations in the upcoming months(I predict max 2 months), then some sort of provisional government followed by elections at the end of the year or maybe at the beginning of the next.
-New(or maybe Old) government in the next year... etc.
-And hopefully Russian/Macedonian gas pipes(we are already building smaller pipes in ~45% of the proposed route) by 2020.
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby notyou2 on Fri May 22, 2015 2:06 pm

This looks like a Putin plot. I expect he is planning an invasion to seize the areas of the country that have the most ethnic Russians.

Pretty sure that is GoranZ street.
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby GoranZ on Fri May 22, 2015 2:28 pm

notyou2 wrote:This looks like a Putin plot. I expect he is planning an invasion to seize the areas of the country that have the most ethnic Russians.

Call it Russian-US battlefield. They are fighting for money, big fat European money ;)

notyou2 wrote:Pretty sure that is GoranZ street.

If you have nothing valuable to add why you write?
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby notyou2 on Fri May 22, 2015 2:40 pm

GoranZ wrote:
notyou2 wrote:This looks like a Putin plot. I expect he is planning an invasion to seize the areas of the country that have the most ethnic Russians.

Call it Russian-US battlefield. They are fighting for money, big fat European money ;)

notyou2 wrote:Pretty sure that is GoranZ street.

If you have nothing valuable to add why you write?


Only you are allowed to have an opinion?

That sounds like a communist plot. Are you ex KGB?
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby notyou2 on Fri May 22, 2015 2:41 pm

You probably think Putin is a great hockey player.

I think he's an ass clown.
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby GoranZ on Fri May 22, 2015 3:14 pm

notyou2 wrote:You probably think Putin is a great hockey player.

I think he's an ass clown.

Perfect, I think you are an imbecile :lol:
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby waauw on Fri May 22, 2015 4:28 pm

Personally I didn't want the South-stream project to get blocked. However the Turkish stream is dangerous for european interests. Any gas europe could possibly receive from the middle east, Iran, Azerbaijan or central asia(though last one is most unlikely) in the future, would pass through Turkey. This gives the turks very big leverage over Europe. Adding any more streams to that would only be detrimental to european negotiation positions. I fully support any decision to try and stop the Turkish stream-project.

f*ck Erdogan!!
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby tkr4lf on Fri May 22, 2015 4:38 pm

AndyDufesne wrote:
Mr. Gruevski has said that the recordings were made at the direction of the “intelligence services” of an unnamed foreign country. Several current and former civil servants have been charged with aiding this effort. Mr. Zaev has been charged with threatening violence against the prime minister.

I wonder which is the "unnamed foreign country?" :roll:
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby DoomYoshi on Fri May 22, 2015 4:45 pm

It's Russia. The CIA have been feeding Zaev the info.

@ GoranZ: How you have experienced democracy is true of many south american, european, asian and african countries.

However, while there are certainly vote buying schemes in my country too (Mirabel airport), in general I have a different experience. I wonder if it's just a question of too much democracy all at once. I have a feeling it's based on weak constitution writing.
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby GoranZ on Fri May 22, 2015 4:55 pm

waauw wrote:Personally I didn't want the South-stream project to get blocked. However the Turkish stream is dangerous for european interests. Any gas europe could possibly receive from the middle east, Iran, Azerbaijan or central asia(though last one is most unlikely) in the future, would pass through Turkey. This gives the turks very big leverage over Europe. Adding any more streams to that would only be detrimental to european negotiation positions. I fully support any decision to try and stop the Turkish stream-project.

f*ck Erdogan!!

After the failure of South-stream project(big thanks to EU) I think that Russians didn't had many options... Unfortunately for all now Turkey is in a position to hold the future of Europe in its hands.

tkr4lf wrote:
AndyDufesne wrote:
Mr. Gruevski has said that the recordings were made at the direction of the “intelligence services” of an unnamed foreign country. Several current and former civil servants have been charged with aiding this effort. Mr. Zaev has been charged with threatening violence against the prime minister.

I wonder which is the "unnamed foreign country?" :roll:

=D> for the question... In reality no one knows. If I need to put my money the data originates from Macedonian secret service and no foreign secret service is involved. But this is according to me.
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby waauw on Fri May 22, 2015 5:00 pm

GoranZ wrote:
waauw wrote:Personally I didn't want the South-stream project to get blocked. However the Turkish stream is dangerous for european interests. Any gas europe could possibly receive from the middle east, Iran, Azerbaijan or central asia(though last one is most unlikely) in the future, would pass through Turkey. This gives the turks very big leverage over Europe. Adding any more streams to that would only be detrimental to european negotiation positions. I fully support any decision to try and stop the Turkish stream-project.

f*ck Erdogan!!

After the failure of South-stream project(big thanks to EU) I think that Russians didn't had many options... Unfortunately for all now Turkey is in a position to hold the future of Europe in its hands.


Which is why Turkey is one of the few countries I wouldn't mind the EU going to war with. But anyway, a Turkish stream is rather useless if you have neither the support of Bulgaria nor Greece.
Last edited by waauw on Fri May 22, 2015 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby GoranZ on Fri May 22, 2015 5:01 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:It's Russia. The CIA have been feeding Zaev the info.

I dont think that CIA or Russia are not involved in the sharing of the secretly recorded conversations.

DoomYoshi wrote:@ GoranZ: How you have experienced democracy is true of many south american, european, asian and african countries.

However, while there are certainly vote buying schemes in my country too (Mirabel airport), in general I have a different experience. I wonder if it's just a question of too much democracy all at once. I have a feeling it's based on weak constitution writing.

On picture explains it all...
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby GoranZ on Fri May 22, 2015 5:04 pm

waauw wrote:
GoranZ wrote:
waauw wrote:Personally I didn't want the South-stream project to get blocked. However the Turkish stream is dangerous for european interests. Any gas europe could possibly receive from the middle east, Iran, Azerbaijan or central asia(though last one is most unlikely) in the future, would pass through Turkey. This gives the turks very big leverage over Europe. Adding any more streams to that would only be detrimental to european negotiation positions. I fully support any decision to try and stop the Turkish stream-project.

f*ck Erdogan!!

After the failure of South-stream project(big thanks to EU) I think that Russians didn't had many options... Unfortunately for all now Turkey is in a position to hold the future of Europe in its hands.


Which is why Turkey is one of the few countries I wouldn't mind the EU going to war with. But anyway, a Turkish stream is rather useless if you have neither the support of Bulgaria nor Greece.

Greece is giving support, same as Serbia, Hungary and Austria. Macedonia is weakest spot now :)
BTW War with Turkey is not possible, however help for the secular opposition could help on a long term.
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby DoomYoshi on Fri May 22, 2015 5:09 pm

Every system, whether a company or a family has to repress something in order for the system to function. Anything that addresses the repressed elements upsets the apple carts. That is why, for example, a family with known alcoholics hates outsiders talking about alchoholism; or biblical literalists take the threat of evolution so seriously.

If you upset one repressed system, you get another system in which something else is repressed. As long as you are not overtly being repressed, the easy answer is to shrug and go about your day. Eventually, the system will topple and there is a new repression, ad infinitum. If you don't like the current repression, become a subversive and maybe the next suppression will be to your liking? It's like a game of cards where you can only draw bad cards (unless you are elite). One day, you will have a decent hand, or you will be too old to care.
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby DoomYoshi on Fri May 22, 2015 5:12 pm

waauw wrote:
GoranZ wrote:
waauw wrote:Personally I didn't want the South-stream project to get blocked. However the Turkish stream is dangerous for european interests. Any gas europe could possibly receive from the middle east, Iran, Azerbaijan or central asia(though last one is most unlikely) in the future, would pass through Turkey. This gives the turks very big leverage over Europe. Adding any more streams to that would only be detrimental to european negotiation positions. I fully support any decision to try and stop the Turkish stream-project.

f*ck Erdogan!!

After the failure of South-stream project(big thanks to EU) I think that Russians didn't had many options... Unfortunately for all now Turkey is in a position to hold the future of Europe in its hands.


Which is why Turkey is one of the few countries I wouldn't mind the EU going to war with. But anyway, a Turkish stream is rather useless if you have neither the support of Bulgaria nor Greece.


I will tell you what James F. Jeffrey told me personally after I expressed some misgivings about Erdogan.

He said "Quit your EU faggotry and embrace Erdogan as America's best hope to beat Russia".
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby waauw on Fri May 22, 2015 5:18 pm

GoranZ wrote:
waauw wrote:
GoranZ wrote:
waauw wrote:Personally I didn't want the South-stream project to get blocked. However the Turkish stream is dangerous for european interests. Any gas europe could possibly receive from the middle east, Iran, Azerbaijan or central asia(though last one is most unlikely) in the future, would pass through Turkey. This gives the turks very big leverage over Europe. Adding any more streams to that would only be detrimental to european negotiation positions. I fully support any decision to try and stop the Turkish stream-project.

f*ck Erdogan!!

After the failure of South-stream project(big thanks to EU) I think that Russians didn't had many options... Unfortunately for all now Turkey is in a position to hold the future of Europe in its hands.


Which is why Turkey is one of the few countries I wouldn't mind the EU going to war with. But anyway, a Turkish stream is rather useless if you have neither the support of Bulgaria nor Greece.

Greece is giving support, same as Serbia, Hungary and Austria. Macedonia is weakest spot now :)
BTW War with Turkey is not possible, however help for the secular opposition could help on a long term.


Anything concerning Greece is highly uncertain as long as they are in negotiation with the IMF(of which the US holds the most seats) and other euro nations.

I agree war with Turkey is unlikely. It's much easier to incite a revolution in the country using the seculars(as you mentioned) and the Kurds. However if that should fail, I think europe could succesfully create a sort of 'liberation'-premise. After all europe has everything to gain from crushing Erdogan and his régime.
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby waauw on Fri May 22, 2015 5:24 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:
waauw wrote:
GoranZ wrote:
waauw wrote:Personally I didn't want the South-stream project to get blocked. However the Turkish stream is dangerous for european interests. Any gas europe could possibly receive from the middle east, Iran, Azerbaijan or central asia(though last one is most unlikely) in the future, would pass through Turkey. This gives the turks very big leverage over Europe. Adding any more streams to that would only be detrimental to european negotiation positions. I fully support any decision to try and stop the Turkish stream-project.

f*ck Erdogan!!

After the failure of South-stream project(big thanks to EU) I think that Russians didn't had many options... Unfortunately for all now Turkey is in a position to hold the future of Europe in its hands.


Which is why Turkey is one of the few countries I wouldn't mind the EU going to war with. But anyway, a Turkish stream is rather useless if you have neither the support of Bulgaria nor Greece.


I will tell you what James F. Jeffrey told me personally after I expressed some misgivings about Erdogan.

He said "Quit your EU faggotry and embrace Erdogan as America's best hope to beat Russia".


The big problem with Erdogan though is that he might be too ambitious and culturally too different from the US and I seriously question the amount of damage Turkey could cause to Russia as opposed to the EU.
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby GoranZ on Fri May 22, 2015 5:49 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:Every system, whether a company or a family has to repress something in order for the system to function. Anything that addresses the repressed elements upsets the apple carts. That is why, for example, a family with known alcoholics hates outsiders talking about alchoholism; or biblical literalists take the threat of evolution so seriously.

If you upset one repressed system, you get another system in which something else is repressed. As long as you are not overtly being repressed, the easy answer is to shrug and go about your day. Eventually, the system will topple and there is a new repression, ad infinitum. If you don't like the current repression, become a subversive and maybe the next suppression will be to your liking? It's like a game of cards where you can only draw bad cards (unless you are elite). One day, you will have a decent hand, or you will be too old to care.

Technically there is no way for all people to be happy, but no one is aiming at that. Its enough if more people are happier then in the previously.

waauw wrote:The big problem with Erdogan though is that he might be too ambitious and culturally too different from the US and I seriously question the amount of damage Turkey could cause to Russia as opposed to the EU.

Erdogan is extremely ambitious, and he is fueling his projects with Nationalism from the Ottoman Empire, but Europe is helping him indirectly a lot in order to harm Russia. By doing that Europe is helping both Erdogan and Putin. Erdogan is gaining strength from EU's weakness and Putin is forced to work harder and much more properly then previously, and this in long run will make him stronger.

Instead of that EU should have just negotiated with Russia about South stream(and many other things) until both sides didn't get to ~50% of their starting positions. It would have worked. Now I think its too late.
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby waauw on Fri May 22, 2015 6:04 pm

GoranZ wrote:
waauw wrote:The big problem with Erdogan though is that he might be too ambitious and culturally too different from the US and I seriously question the amount of damage Turkey could cause to Russia as opposed to the EU.

Erdogan is extremely ambitious, and he is fueling his projects with Nationalism from the Ottoman Empire, but Europe is helping him indirectly a lot in order to harm Russia. By doing that Europe is helping both Erdogan and Putin. Erdogan is gaining strength from EU's weakness and Putin is forced to work harder and much more properly then previously, and this in long run will make him stronger.

Instead of that EU should have just negotiated with Russia about South stream(and many other things) until both sides didn't get to ~50% of their starting positions. It would have worked. Now I think its too late.


Though I don't believe it's too late(I think they rarely are in politics), I do agree europe should seek closer relations to Russia. All in all Russia and the rest of europe are in my opinion ideal partners for each other. If only they were both able set aside past differences. Culturally there are not that much differences, economically we complement each other and politically we could both obtain stability and security.
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Re: Macedonia's Political Crisis

Postby GoranZ on Sat May 23, 2015 4:24 am

waauw wrote:Though I don't believe it's too late(I think they rarely are in politics), I do agree europe should seek closer relations to Russia. All in all Russia and the rest of europe are in my opinion ideal partners for each other. If only they were both able set aside past differences. Culturally there are not that much differences, economically we complement each other and politically we could both obtain stability and security.

Yes compatibility of EU and Russia is absolute in every aspect. What Russia has and can provide EU needs, and what EU has and can provide Russia needs. Or better said such partnership or alliance will provide all of its members of everything they can possibly need(Resources, Economical Power, Military Power, Scientific Power, Production Power, Political Power) and whats important World had never seen anything like it before in its history. US strengths would be obsolete, even US-China alliance would be several times weaker. That is why US had started working to undermine the possibility of such partnership to be created, and is still working on that project.
Its important to be noted that Russia and China have similar potentials but they are not as nearly compatible as Russia-EU's one.


Back on the topic about my countries political crisis.
Few key aspects that everyone is ignoring:
-There were hints that the opposition leader Zaev has some materials before South-Stream project was canceled. I wont dive into speculation that some foreign power expected South-Stream to be canceled and Turkish-Stream to be proposed.
-Ethnic Albanians(represent ~25% of Macedonia's population) are not in a mood for rebellion(they are aware that they will get nothing good from it), same as Macedonians which are not in a mood for civil war. Security incident that happen is close to Kosovo border and majority of the terrorists were from Kosovo(illegally in Macedonia). If armed struggle happen in my country it would be because of foreign influence.
-I'm 100% convinced that opposition lead government would consider to decline of the Turkish stream only with extremely heavy foreign influence(US/EU). Current government would not decline it under any foreign influence :).

Conclusion:
What is Russia offering: 10% increase in Budget funds ever year if the pipeline is built. The income would come from pipeline taxes.
What is US/EU offering: "West would not create civil war in Macedonia" although everyone from Macedonia doesn't want civil war. This is for start, they might offer something else tho.

This probably explains my views on West and Russia and why I support one over the other.

Here is an article and a video from Bloomberg about the situation. But in order to understand the situation ignore the title and dont listen to the journalist, he is arrogant and he doesn't listen(like many western politicians), just listen to the Russian ambassador.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -pipelines
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