waauw wrote:Honestly duk, what is your solution? If we find (former) ISIS members among the refugees entering europe. What should we do with them? Just let them walk wherever they want?
For the most part, yes. Just because someone was in the army last year doesn't mean they have any desire to continue fighting. Most people, once they get out of the army, just want to get back to civilian life. When's the last time a former member of the Luftwaffe tried to strafe your house?
Take a former soldier down to the pub and you'll find his main interests are baseball, beer, and blowjobs, just like anyone else. I suppose if he's a devout Muslim you'll have to skip the beer, but a little whiff of ganja will be quite welcome.
Yes, of course there are exceptions. There will be some among the refugees who are active ISIS agents planning to start terror cells, of course there will be. That's why you have police and intelligence agencies.
The "fake refugee" is always attempted, but very rarely are they successful. Most of them fail their first interview with the immigration people. You'd be surprised how successful those initial interviews are at nailing the majority of the fakers. In 1940 dozens of abwehr agents were brought to Britain as fake refugees. Almost all of them were caught. Of the few that weren't, not a single one actually carried out a successful act of sabotage.
waauw wrote:Personally, I think that's too big a risk. If even just one person dies because you put too much trust in an ISIS fighter, you'll have the entire continent in uproar and the only one gaining from this is the far right.
That's crazy. If you change your world in response to potential terrorists, the terrorists have already won.
Destroying the basis of liberal democracy because of the risk of terrorist attack is shooting yourself in the head. More people die from bee-stings than from terrorist attacks. Should we slaughter all the bees and impose on ourselves the duty of hand-pollinating all the crops? Even more people die from lightning strikes. Maybe we should ban going outdoors? Even more drown in the bathtub. Perhaps bathing should be outlawed?
A rational response to terrorist gang is hunting them through normal and legal police methods, including surveillance and infiltration. It does not involve destroying the society or turning a nation into an armed camp. Will normal methods sometimes fail? Of course they will, but the alternative -- living in a locked-down police state -- is far worse that the disease, nor in fact does it carry any guarantees of safety. Russia, China, Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are all very militarized societies with high levels of vigilance and impaired civil liberties, but still they suffer terrorist attacks.
waauw wrote:Dukasaur wrote:By interfering, only five things change, none for the better.
- It is likely that the conflict will take longer
- It is likely that there will be a lot more deaths in the process
- It is likely that moderates will lose traction, and the most extreme and hateful factions will gain
- it is certain that our taxpayers will get burned for an enormous amount of money
- It is possible that the conflict will broaden and spread to even more places.
So basically you're saying, don't do anything?
what is ALREADY happening:
- The conflict has already been taking years with no end in sight.
- Creating more deaths is what needs to be obtained, you can't stop a war without killing. Playing Gandhi won't work.
- Doing nothing, has gained europe a strong increase in racism, and you can be certain this will lead to increased muslim fundamentalism within europe as well.
- The taxpayers are already spending bucketloads of money on immigrants, that money might as well be spent on tackling the root of the issue. Don't get me wrong, the ordinary war refugees are more than welcome.
- ISIS is already spreading, most notably theh're training people to spread them into europe.
Europe has no other choice but to at least try SOMETHING. Our non-interventionism in Syria up until now obviously hasn't worked out for us. It's time for a new strategy.
Lol, on what day was non-interventionism our strategy? I must have slept through it.
We
started this war. ISIS would not even exist if we hadn't destabilized Iraq and Syria. In that sense, every minute of this war is something you can lay at NATO's feet.
"[*]Creating more deaths is what needs to be obtained, you can't stop a war without killing."
Of course a war will have killing before it ends. But deliberately prolonging it will multiply the deaths.
Phase 1: If we hadn't been supplying arms to ISIS in the beginning, Assad would have killed them, and yes there would be some tragic consequences for some people, but by now it would be over and people would be rebuilding their lives. Be feeding arms to ISIS, we ensured the prolongation of the war, in the beginning.
Phase 2: With ISIS ascendant, they might have finished off Assad. And again, there would have been some tragic consequences for some people, but it would be over by now and people could be rebuilding their lives. But we got scared and changed sides. We wanted Assad under attack, you see, but we didn't want him to be removed. As long as Assad is frightening the Gulf sheikhs, they have to lick America's knuckles. So we wanted to make a big show of how we're slapping Assad around, but we didn't want (oh! HORROR!) for his government to actually fall. So in the eleventh hour, we changed sides and started bombing the shit out of ISIS.
Phase 3: Now the Russians are arriving, and we don't want them to get the glory, so we're going to keep up the pretense of bombing ISIS, but we're going to surreptitiously slip them some more modern weapons so they don't make it look too easy for the Russians. We'll also start some diplomatic initiatives now. It has to be seen that the Russians are more dangerous than the Arabs, so you can be sure that the intense propaganda effort will switch gears now. We've worked hard at painting ISIS as slobbering rabid dogs with no human qualities, but now we'll start seeing the "human" sides of ISIS, so that we can start exposing Russian "atrocities". Once again, ISIS will be on the point of extinction, but we will start pulling our punches more and more, trying to keep the whole boggle going a little longer, prolonging the agony and turning what might have been a quick end to the war into a decades-long mess.
{Everything I said about Syria could be adapted, with minor differences, to Iraq.}
So yeah, to get back to the point. Of course a war won't end without killing, but the war could end quickly and involve a lot fewer deaths if we didn't meddle. We started the war by destabilizing Iraq. We nursed the little spark of rebellion in Syria into the flame of a full-blown civil war by air-dropping weapons to ISIS. We got scared by the size of the blaze that followed, so we tried to put out fire with fire by bombing ISIS. Now, if it looks like ISIS will die, we will change sides yet again and keep them from extinction, and ultimately a rebellion that might have lasted two weeks, followed by a healing period, will turn into a quagmire that will destroy lives and suck up resources for decades.
In Vietnam, we took a civil war that might have lasted two years and cost 100,000 lives, and we nursed it along until it lasted 45 years and cost millions of lives.
And just for perspective:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/9359763/Bee-stings-killed-as-many-in-UK-as-terrorists-says-watchdog.html