Resistance Intimidating Trump Supporters

[mookiemcgee]

You voted for gary johnson....hahahaha.

I actually like him too, but I don't really see him as a viable presidential politician. I can see him in a debate making actual arguments about the issue, and trump calling him a stoner and giving him a funny nickname cus for some reason this seems to work well on the american electorate.

You don't think trump will win 2020? I'm confused by what you wrote because I agree with most of it, the left will go way too far left but to me the result is a much larger trump victory than 2016. I also fully expect Trump to start an actual war/invasion 9-12 months prior to the election, this seems to historically be the most concrete way of securing a second term.

[Neoteny]

I can't possibly be a boomer as I was born towards the end of Gen X. By some accounts, I could be a millenial. Further, I self-identify as Gen X and isn't that the most important thing - how I self identify? I'm reliably informed that's most important.

You have a boomer's sense of humor.

As to why Trump won (or HIllary lost), there are probably many different factors one of which is certainly the "normal people" concept. The voter turnout numbers are also fairly instructive (voters as a percentage of eligible voters):

- 1996 - 49% (the last year I couldn't vote)
- 2000 - 50.3% (I voted for Bush)
- 2004 - 55.7% (Didn't vote)
- 2008 - 58.2% (I voted for Bob Barr (libertarian))
- 2012 - 54.9% (I voted for Romney)
- 2016 - 55.5% (I voted for Gary Johnson (libertarian))

Given that 2016 seems to be fairly average over the past 6 elections and just above the mean, I'd say people stayed home because people stay home, not for any reason like what you've posited. In other words, seems like a fairly normal presidential election, statistically. I've never found voting to be particularly time-consuming or troublesome and there are candidates for everyone's tastes. So this idea that "Clinton and Trump didn't represent me so I'm not voting" is a particularly weird thought (unless we think that's what happens every four years).

Those numbers being a few percentage points different looks pretty small, but I wouldn't be surprised if the increases in 2004 and 2008 reflect statistically significant differences. We all know that Obama's success in 2008 was due to his charisma and message motivating a significant number of normally apathetic voters (before everyone realizes he's just another Democrat and the numbers drop again), and Kerry was notoriously vigorous. Haha I'm just kidding about that one. That election was a wartime election, and, despite any rational first glance, Bush certainly had a charisma of his own. I still see those dumb "do you miss w yet" memes on Facebook, so something is clearly there. 3 to 6 percentage points is a lot of people. I have no idea what the error bars on those numbers look like, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's something there.

At any rate, people all feel differently about how they vote. Maybe "they didn't represent me" is a little dramatic. More accurate is probably "they didn't give me a reason to skip some of my daily routine to vote." I voted for Hillary because I have no problem voting for the lesser of two evils, but others looked at the corrupt, sickly war criminal and the corrupt, sinile, fascistic game show host and decided "imma sit this one out." And I can't say I blame them. The main flaw, in my eyes, of the Hillary campaign was they were targeting "moderates," which is not a large portion of the population, and honestly, they tend to vote conservative. Anyone with the means to waffle between a neoliberal and a neofascist is probably going to lean right. You can maybe pull some of them over, but the return is not worth the effort. The easy money is on the admittedly capricious nonvoter. But there's enough of them that getting a small number of them to come to your side is enough to push you over. Obama did that. W did it. Trump did it. Hillary didn't. And if the special elections and primaries are any indicator, the Dems still haven't learned that lesson.

Also, "there are candidates for everyone's tastes" is clearly false. There were no socialists on the presidential ballot in 2016. At least, not on my Georgia ballot.

For what it's worth, I don't think Trump will win (putting aside whether he actually stays in office until he's up for reelection and assuming Republicans don't try to run against him in a serious way (I have a theory on this that once the Republicans get what they want out of Trump (another Supreme Court justice), they'll start turning on him more)). Again, my concern here is that the alternative from a policy perspective could be much worse because, whatever you say about the blue base, they are getting a lot more crazy. The trend is not for the Dems to nominate Hillary 2.0; the trend is for the Dems to find either their version of Trump or someone as radicalized as possible. Look at who the Dem candidate frontrunners are and what they are saying. They're all moving further to the left than anyone did previously (with the exception of Sanders). You know how a lot of the blue team yearns for the days of Romney and McCain? I think we're going to get to the point where the red team starts yearning for the days of Obama. I honestly hope I'm wrong and the parties nominate presidential candidates that are moderate, but I don't see it going that way.

Lol I always take for granted your perpetual fluffing of centrism to the point that I forget how reactionary you are. I'm not sure what trend you are referring to. If the trend is AOC and that guy in Virginia, well, that might be the very beginning of a trend, but right now those are just outliers. Most of the special elections and primaries happening so far have been won by establishment style Dems. Some have been dragged slightly left on, like, marijuana or criminal justice reform. Like, watching Cuomo react to AOC is the most hilarious thing. But it's extremely rare to see actual leftist policy from Democrats. Getting them to support Medicare for all is like pulling teeth. They'll fall over themselves to defend ICE. Watch one of their faces when you suggest abolishing prisons, or, god-forbid, the police. It's the same face I'm sure you made just now.

That well-spoken and politically-aware people like you think that it would be demonstrative of the failings of our political system for one of the teams to be pining for the days of formerly believed extremists like Obama is yet another signal that the Overton window in the US has been so thoroughly warped that it would fit into a circus funhouse. If a leftist won, yeah, some people would miss Obama. But there's a much, MUCH wider gulf between Obama and even an AOC, than there is between a McCain and a Trump. People like Jeff Flake and McCain have played the same centrist games that you do, while still voting almost entirely for Trump's policies. Because, when it comes down to it, the Trump administration is accomplishing almost everything the Republicans want to do. He's just says the quiet parts a little bit louder than they normally like to.

[Neoteny]

To bring patches' dumb kids back into this, there's a thing on Twitter where the left and the right make fun of each other for not knowing how to meme. What is painfully clear to both is that libertarians are the worst memers.

[thegreekdog]

You voted for gary johnson....hahahaha.

I actually like him too, but I don't really see him as a viable presidential politician.

Unlike, say (and I'm just making this up here)... Donald Trump?

Also, I'm mostly libertarian leaning both fiscally and socially with limited exceptions. I like rights to privacy, I think the war on drugs is too costly in terms of lives and money, I think we do foreign intervention far too often and should scale back the military, and I'm in favor of pretty much unlimited immigration. But I also like low taxes and limited government and I'm almost 100% pro-life. I would have voted for Rand Paul but he didn't win the nomination.

[thegreekdog]

The problem with having this type of discussion with you is that you're a true believer (see immediately below):

That well-spoken and politically-aware people like you think that it would be demonstrative of the failings of our political system for one of the teams to be pining for the days of formerly believed extremists like Obama is yet another signal that the Overton window in the US has been so thoroughly warped that it would fit into a circus funhouse. If a leftist won, yeah, some people would miss Obama. But there's a much, MUCH wider gulf between Obama and even an AOC, than there is between a McCain and a Trump. People like Jeff Flake and McCain have played the same centrist games that you do, while still voting almost entirely for Trump's policies. Because, when it comes down to it, the Trump administration is accomplishing almost everything the Republicans want to do. He's just says the quiet parts a little bit louder than they normally like to.

I don't mean that as a criticism because it's refreshing to have someone acknowledge that from a global lense there is little difference between Obama and Bush II (especially when you start throwing issues like war/intervention, spending, criminal justice, and rights to privacy out there).

I do think Trump is different than your standard Republican which I think is why he won the primary and probably the general election. He won the primary because he had "policies" that Rubio, etc. didn't have and said things that no politician would say. Sure, he's nominating conservative justices and sure he signed a bill that reduced taxes, just like any normal Republican but he's boorish and irreligious and (probably) racist, in favor of tariffs, and attempts to appeal to the working class. To put it another way, Trump is to Rubio as Sanders is to Clinton.

Semi-related - Fivethirtyeight seems to think that the reason Trump won was because of Comey (they use a statistical analysis). I thought that might be relevant to this discussion.

[thegreekdog]

You don't think trump will win 2020? I'm confused by what you wrote because I agree with most of it, the left will go way too far left but to me the result is a much larger trump victory than 2016. I also fully expect Trump to start an actual war/invasion 9-12 months prior to the election, this seems to historically be the most concrete way of securing a second term.

I think there is much more negative press now that Trump is president than before and I think the Democrats will nominate a viable candidate who will actually take Trump seriously. HIs approval ratings have hovered in the low to mid 40s which is really bad territory to be in.

The only thing that can possibly help Trump is if the economy continues its strong growth and employment numbers.

[mookiemcgee]

You don't think trump will win 2020? I'm confused by what you wrote because I agree with most of it, the left will go way too far left but to me the result is a much larger trump victory than 2016. I also fully expect Trump to start an actual war/invasion 9-12 months prior to the election, this seems to historically be the most concrete way of securing a second term.

I think there is much more negative press now that Trump is president than before and I think the Democrats will nominate a viable candidate who will actually take Trump seriously. HIs approval ratings have hovered in the low to mid 40s which is really bad territory to be in.

The only thing that can possibly help Trump is if the economy continues its strong growth and employment numbers.

Id love it, but i just don't see it... Honestly I think the democrats only hope is putting a non politician billionaire and or celebrity next to him. Frankly, and I realize this is pathetically pessimistic, but I think the Rock or Oprah have a better chance of beating Trump than say anyone on this list (except Oprah)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/03/23/the-top-15-democratic-presidential-candidates-for-2020-ranked-2/?utm_term=.12633c5d80db

To you previous post, I feel like trump was grooming himself for a presidential run for 30 years... well outside of the political sphere, and in a very non-traditional way of course. I think we have different perceptions of the American electorate, the degree to which the give a shit about voting and their attention span. The turning point in my view on this was when the Govenator was elected in Ca. After that I started to believe recognizability/visibility by the masses was the single most important factor in a candidate. Ideas/politics don't matter as much as they should at the national level imo.

[Neoteny]

I don't mean that as a criticism because it's refreshing to have someone acknowledge that from a global lense there is little difference between Obama and Bush II (especially when you start throwing issues like war/intervention, spending, criminal justice, and rights to privacy out there).

Put them both against the wall.

I do think Trump is different than your standard Republican which I think is why he won the primary and probably the general election. He won the primary because he had "policies" that Rubio, etc. didn't have and said things that no politician would say. Sure, he's nominating conservative justices and sure he signed a bill that reduced taxes, just like any normal Republican but he's boorish and irreligious and (probably) racist, in favor of tariffs, and attempts to appeal to the working class. To put it another way, Trump is to Rubio as Sanders is to Clinton.

I mean, personality traits don't make a policy, and I think racism is absolutely a part of the Republican worldview, but I'm not invested enough in defending the Democrats to really put much more effort into disagreeing.

Semi-related - Fivethirtyeight seems to think that the reason Trump won was because of Comey (they use a statistical analysis). I thought that might be relevant to this discussion.

I'm sure it was relevant. The timing in particular is excruciating. But Trump shrugged off plenty of scandals. Hillary couldn't beat the one, and I don't think Comey's activities were particularly surprising.

I hope 538's statistical analysis was better than the stats they used to make their election predictions.

I think there is much more negative press now that Trump is president than before and I think the Democrats will nominate a viable candidate who will actually take Trump seriously. HIs approval ratings have hovered in the low to mid 40s which is really bad territory to be in.

Revisionism. Trump had negative press throughout the campaign. His backers are right there. Dems just ran, like, the only candidate who is less popular than Trump.

[thegreekdog]

You don't think trump will win 2020? I'm confused by what you wrote because I agree with most of it, the left will go way too far left but to me the result is a much larger trump victory than 2016. I also fully expect Trump to start an actual war/invasion 9-12 months prior to the election, this seems to historically be the most concrete way of securing a second term.

I think there is much more negative press now that Trump is president than before and I think the Democrats will nominate a viable candidate who will actually take Trump seriously. HIs approval ratings have hovered in the low to mid 40s which is really bad territory to be in.

The only thing that can possibly help Trump is if the economy continues its strong growth and employment numbers.

Id love it, but i just don't see it... Honestly I think the democrats only hope is putting a non politician billionaire and or celebrity next to him. Frankly, and I realize this is pathetically pessimistic, but I think the Rock or Oprah have a better chance of beating Trump than say anyone on this list (except Oprah)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/03/23/the-top-15-democratic-presidential-candidates-for-2020-ranked-2/?utm_term=.12633c5d80db

To you previous post, I feel like trump was grooming himself for a presidential run for 30 years... well outside of the political sphere, and in a very non-traditional way of course. I think we have different perceptions of the American electorate, the degree to which the give a shit about voting and their attention span. The turning point in my view on this was when the Govenator was elected in Ca. After that I started to believe recognizability/visibility by the masses was the single most important factor in a candidate. Ideas/politics don't matter as much as they should at the national level imo.

For some reason I thought The Rock would run as a Libertarian. Presidential cult of personality was probably always around, but obviously became most important with JFK who combined qualifications with charisma on a television screen. Also, there is a big difference between Schwarzenegger (who wasn't very controversial) and Trump (who is). So yeah, if Oprah runs she would likely be more like Arnold than the Don.

[thegreekdog]

personality traits don't make a policy

Right, but Trump was talking about keeping manufacturing in the US in ways that no one else was talking about (e.g. TARIFFS!). And then his whole thing about infrastructure. Republicans don't prioritize those things.

I think racism is absolutely a part of the Republican worldview

If you mean that Republicans think that race should not factor into decisions, then yes. If you mean that Republicans are actually racist, then no.

I hope 538's statistical analysis was better than the stats they used to make their election predictions.

To be fair, I believe they had the highest likelihood of Trump winning of any polling used.

Revisionism. Trump had negative press throughout the campaign. His backers are right there. Dems just ran, like, the only candidate who is less popular than Trump.

Perhaps it's more accurate for me to say that people view the negative press in a more meaningful way now than they did during the election (or there is more of a reaction). Trump admits to sexual harassment in 2016, it matters less because no one thinks he's going to win the election; it mattered a whole lot more to people immediately after he won the election (see e.g the pussy hat parade in DC). Plus you had all the positive press about him during the primary election; media loved them some Trump. The question is whether the polling now matches the polling during the time up through the election. I bet Trump polls worse now.

[Neoteny]

I think racism is absolutely a part of the Republican worldview

If you mean that Republicans think that race should not factor into decisions, then yes. If you mean that Republicans are actually racist, then no.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Revisionism. Trump had negative press throughout the campaign. His backers are right there. Dems just ran, like, the only candidate who is less popular than Trump.

Perhaps it's more accurate for me to say that people view the negative press in a more meaningful way now than they did during the election (or there is more of a reaction). Trump admits to sexual harassment in 2016, it matters less because no one thinks he's going to win the election; it mattered a whole lot more to people immediately after he won the election (see e.g the pussy hat parade in DC). Plus you had all the positive press about him during the primary election; media loved them some Trump. The question is whether the polling now matches the polling during the time up through the election. I bet Trump polls worse now.

Without the numbers, who knows. I don't think he was particularly popular in polling beforehand. A quick Google brings this up, which suggests he wasn't particularly liked beforehand either. I'd even say he's improved.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ot ... ility.html

[karel]

everyone knows the left is more racist then the kkk,sucks but truth hurts,bunch of scum bags

[mookiemcgee]

everyone knows the left is more racist then the kkk,sucks but truth hurts,bunch of scum bags

Well I'm embarrassed, I didn't know that! Can you explain it to me?

[karel]

everyone knows the left is more racist then the kkk,sucks but truth hurts,bunch of scum bags

Well I'm embarrassed, I didn't know that! Can you explain it to me?

if your that shallow mined libtard then im not going to waste my time on you,ffs get a god damn clue,jesus fooking christ look at the hate groups they support,god damnit open your eyes

[Neoteny]

Lol.

I've been pondering greek's commentary that I'm a true believer and it has been an interesting thought. I'm no tankie after all, but yeah, seize the means of production.

[HitRed]

Karel, Fake Burn might adopt you, just maybe.

[mookiemcgee]

everyone knows the left is more racist then the kkk,sucks but truth hurts,bunch of scum bags

Well I'm embarrassed, I didn't know that! Can you explain it to me?

if your that shallow mined libtard then im not going to waste my time on you,ffs get a god damn clue,jesus fooking christ look at the hate groups they support,god damnit open your eyes

Correct me if I'm misunderstand what you wrote, but KKK is racist... it's just that groups you feel the left supports are more racist? Or is the KKK just not racist, and the left it? Help me friend, I want to understand. This is a revelation to me!!!

[karel]

k,i will write this very slow for you...antifa is most racist group in america,but you prolly support these left over welfare obama thugs

[Neoteny]

That's beautiful man.

[mookiemcgee]

k,i will write this very slow for you...antifa is most racist group in america,but you prolly support these left over welfare obama thugs

Thanks Karel! I understand about antifa now. It's a sad day that after over 100 years on top of the charts the KKK has finally been pushed to #2.

Maybe with some hard work and dedication we can bring it back to it's former glory... what do you thinKKK?

(I'd love to be in charge of pamphlets)

[karel]

na the clan is prolly ranked 5 or 6,as they do not even do much these days,but maybe the clan should get together and march in on a an antifa march just to kick the living shit out of these welfare scum bags

[mookiemcgee]

na the clan is prolly ranked 5 or 6,as they do not even do much these days,but maybe the clan should get together and march in on a an antifa march just to kick the living shit out of these welfare scum bags

Wow we gotta lotta work to do.... Maybe we should throw our weight behind another org? Any suggestions... we gotta do something to hold of the Antifa hords.

[Neoteny]

na the clan is prolly ranked 5 or 6,as they do not even do much these days,but maybe the clan should get together and march in on a an antifa march just to kick the living shit out of these welfare scum bags

I think we just call those people cops.

[mookiemcgee]

Guys, pull together now. If we are gonna start a revolution it really needs to start with pamphlets not hate.

[Neoteny]

Here is a pamphlet for you.