INTO THE DEEP (COMPLETE - Mafia Win !!)

[Ragian]

There's too much goddamn math in this game.

Oh hey ragian what are your opinions

Sorry. Work is fucked. On phone. Only read to this bit. Honestly, I give up on the math because I like scum hunting, and I'm too thick for and lack motivation to do math.

Three things stick out to me (apart from Pika last day):
1) What makes ZB know that Tobi is lying?
2) Why does chap ignore the rules and act as if he can use his special ability again?
3) Why would Tobi's alignment have anything to do with me?

[TX AG 90]

tobi has just breathed a big sigh of relief!
skoff is so messed up, im putting my vote back because i want it known for the record that i am convinced she is scum.

VOTE SKOFFIN

I think you need to BOLD that blacky

[blacky365]

tobi has just breathed a big sigh of relief!
skoff is so messed up, im putting my vote back because i want it known for the record that i am convinced she is scum.

VOTE SKOFFIN

I think you need to BOLD that blacky

ok then...
VOTE SKOFFIN

[TX AG 90]

TX, the only argument chap is putting forward is something along the line of "trust me, they're more likely to be scum than others". I know someone is lying and therefore scum in the tobi situation, and a flip would give much more info than someone who's been mostly ignored so far. Also his plan is based on a false premise as he can't investigate further.

Scum hunting has gotten us know where; nobody seems to know "jack" or "sh*t" for certain.

Chap's plan actually increases the probabilities of lynching scum if he's telling the truth and is town.

If he's lying, lynch him. Though Tobi and/or skoffin very well could be scum, I think we are shooting in the dark again and that is why I bought into Chap's plan.

If someone can come up with 100% proof of someone else's scumminess, I'll happily change my vote, But for now, I'm playing the odds.

[Ragian]

Of course, scum hunting is going like crap because we have a million pages of speculation that any scum can hide behind. There's nothing in this thread not drowned in a million pages of people going "I wonder how this little thingy works". It's like trying to sue a giant corporation and then drowning in legalese. Some townies have polluted this thread playing into scum hands that now no one knows anything.

@chap, why do you state that you can use your special ability again? Help me understand!

@Beast, I need to know what you got on Mets (and exactly how you got it) to understand why Tobi is lying.

[ZaBeast]

@rage

I.... don't follow?

I targeted tobi so he would be redirected. Therefore BuJ shouldn't have been redirected. However, BuJ claims he still did not land on his target based on the result he got (targeted mets, and said the result can't apply to mets) and Pika confirms (claimed to have wiretapped Aage, who wiretapped BuJ, effectively getting the result of BuJ's action). There is still the possibility that BuJ has been bussed, but then that would mean both chap (claimed busdriver, I don't believe we have 2) and TX (claimed not the have been redirected, even though tobi's action landed on him) have to be lying.

Clearer?

[Ragian]

Yes, I read that. So BuJ could be lying, too, right?

[ZaBeast]

If BuJ is lying (keep in mind Aage had a town read on him based on wiretapping him), then pika is as well because he confirmed. And TX would have to be lying too because he should have been redirected yet claims he hasn't. But it is a possibility (bullet no.3 where I list the possibilities I see. I just decided to go with the simplest explanation, which has the added benefit of lynching the one I think is most likely to be scum.
@TX let's go with the worst case scenario. We mislynch someone from group B and tomorrow we're at lylo. What reads will the mislynch have given you? What you're going with is basically a policy lynch. You can't really read into votes for a policy lynch too much. Moreover if we mislynch someone from group B today, we'll just have chap going "look, group B is even better to lynch from now!" and if he's scum and you trust him again it's going to be game over. Talking about that, you voted him on D1. What has he done since then that convinced you so much he's town you're taking everything he says at face value?

[ZaBeast]

Rage and pika, you both said you went for food. Is it clear when you get it it's a 1-time thing?

[strike wolf]

TX, the only argument chap is putting forward is something along the line of "trust me, they're more likely to be scum than others". I know someone is lying and therefore scum in the tobi situation, and a flip would give much more info than someone who's been mostly ignored so far. Also his plan is based on a false premise as he can't investigate further.

Scum hunting has gotten us know where; nobody seems to know "jack" or "sh*t" for certain.

Chap's plan actually increases the probabilities of lynching scum if he's telling the truth and is town.

If he's lying, lynch him. Though Tobi and/or skoffin very well could be scum, I think we are shooting in the dark again and that is why I bought into Chap's plan.

If someone can come up with 100% proof of someone else's scumminess, I'll happily change my vote, But for now, I'm playing the odds.

How would we know he's lying? Pika flipping town doesn't prove Chap is scum. In fact, Pika flipping scum doesn't prove that Chap is town (Though it proves more t his way)

[Ragian]

Right. I see what you're saying. But at this point in the game, it's not unnatural for scum to work together. So, let me get this straight. The only thing I get from you is that BuJ and Pika are in cahoots together. BuJ says he didn't land on his target, and Pika corroborates that. Do we know what "message" doesn't fik Mets and who stated it first if any? I don't trust Pika, you see.

Rage and pika, you both said you went for food. Is it clear when you get it it's a 1-time thing?

Well, it indicates that this action can be used the next night instead of the normal action (of which I have none apart from the passive poisoning, so I reckon it's a general message). It's not set in stone that it's a one-time thing, but I would defo assume so based on the phrasing.

[Pikanchion]

Rage and pika, you both said you went for food. Is it clear when you get it it's a 1-time thing?

Mine did when I was successful, and having gone for it N1 I can't be certain if this information was revealed as a result of having been successful or if it would have also been beforehand had I fulfilled the reveal conditions prior to actually unlocking the ability. My PM did not indicate that every bonus ability is like that, but for another to have an ability that is at least as powerful (if not more) not be limited in the same way seems suspect to me.

[Pikanchion]

*Mine clearly was one-time when I was successful

Words, whatever, I'm a little tipsy right now.

[Tobikera]

Of course, scum hunting is going like crap because we have a million pages of speculation that any scum can hide behind. ......Some townies have polluted this thread playing into scum hands that now no one knows anything.

You make the point I have tried to make before. I have from D2, been upfront about what I did. It was confirmed by a townie (Mets) and someone I consider, at this juncture, scum (Pika). I have said when I have been successful and when have not. Now, on D4, ZB comes along and paints a picture which I think is a composite of things he gathered from all the things I and others have said on D2 and D3. I swear he's making it up, and calling me a liar in hopes that unperceiving townies will vote to lynch. Everything I've done checks out. Can ZB say the same. His confirmations are only his own words and his aspersions on me. Where's his proof? Nowhere. He's creating a legend synthesized from everyone else's words. SWANNY!!!

[Skoffin]

on mobile


Tobi was going to be a top lynch choice before chaps plan divided people frim it.
Tobis alignment will tell us about other players while others players lynch would not. If tobi is town then ragoo is scum and chap is town. If tobi is scum then chap is his scum partner. Tobi is best lynch today.
But whatever just do something. Its our last day ffs and im at work for 10 hours. Ill put my vote wherever tf its needed

[TX AG 90]

TX, the only argument chap is putting forward is something along the line of "trust me, they're more likely to be scum than others". I know someone is lying and therefore scum in the tobi situation, and a flip would give much more info than someone who's been mostly ignored so far. Also his plan is based on a false premise as he can't investigate further.

Scum hunting has gotten us know where; nobody seems to know "jack" or "sh*t" for certain.

Chap's plan actually increases the probabilities of lynching scum if he's telling the truth and is town.

If he's lying, lynch him. Though Tobi and/or skoffin very well could be scum, I think we are shooting in the dark again and that is why I bought into Chap's plan.

If someone can come up with 100% proof of someone else's scumminess, I'll happily change my vote, But for now, I'm playing the odds.

How would we know he's lying? Pika flipping town doesn't prove Chap is scum. In fact, Pika flipping scum doesn't prove that Chap is town (Though it proves more t his way)

I just meant if you think he is lying NOW, go ahead and lynch him; not based on if pika flips town.

[TX AG 90]

If BuJ is lying (keep in mind Aage had a town read on him based on wiretapping him), then pika is as well because he confirmed. And TX would have to be lying too because he should have been redirected yet claims he hasn't. But it is a possibility (bullet no.3 where I list the possibilities I see. I just decided to go with the simplest explanation, which has the added benefit of lynching the one I think is most likely to be scum.
@TX let's go with the worst case scenario. We mislynch someone from group B and tomorrow we're at lylo. What reads will the mislynch have given you? What you're going with is basically a policy lynch. You can't really read into votes for a policy lynch too much. Moreover if we mislynch someone from group B today, we'll just have chap going "look, group B is even better to lynch from now!" and if he's scum and you trust him again it's going to be game over. Talking about that, you voted him on D1. What has he done since then that convinced you so much he's town you're taking everything he says at face value?

Chap didn't really do much to earn my Vote on D1. I just thought everyone was supposed to vote and based on what little or no information, I went with him. I'm still not convinced he is town, but I put it at over 50% and am ok with the plan. I said as much initially. Either it's a solid plan by a town member to narrow the lynching candidates down into a manageable pool or a masterful invention by scum to get the rest of us to lynch more townies. Since several in Group B were at the tops of my scum list anyway, I sided with - good plan for town going forward.

[Tobikera]

on mobile


Tobi was going to be a top lynch choice before chaps plan divided people frim it.
Tobis alignment will tell us about other players while others players lynch would not. If tobi is town then ragoo is scum and chap is town. If tobi is scum then chap is his scum partner. Tobi is best lynch today.
But whatever just do something. Its our last day ffs and im at work for 10 hours. Ill put my vote wherever tf its needed

Disagree, if pika or ZB are voted and found to be scum, then we can roll up most of the scum more easily. I was never a top lynch choice, except among the scum. Blacky, SW, Ragian, TX, chaps, and, of course, me have said at one time or another that it's not time to lynch Tobi. So, who are the 6 dumbshits that want to lynch a 6th townie?? Figured mafia would have night-killed me before this, but maybe a Master Misdirector is not high on their list of candidates. Scum know I am town, so look for the ones who are posting most often + mentioning the need to lynch Tobi. There you go....scum on a platter.

[Pikanchion]

I was never a top lynch choice, except among the scum.
Scum know I am town, so look for the ones who are posting most often + mentioning the need to lynch Tobi.

I guess pershy, BuJaber, strike wolf, Metsfanmax, chapcrap, Pikanchion, ZaBeast, and Skoffin is the scum team then?

[ZaBeast]

Chap didn't really do much to earn my Vote on D1. I just thought everyone was supposed to vote and based on what little or no information, I went with him. I'm still not convinced he is town, but I put it at over 50% and am ok with the plan. I said as much initially. Either it's a solid plan by a town member to narrow the lynching candidates down into a manageable pool or a masterful invention by scum to get the rest of us to lynch more townies. Since several in Group B were at the tops of my scum list anyway, I sided with - good plan for town going forward.

You realize he could just have made up this ability of bussing 4 people and knowing how many scum are in there right? I don't see how that would make it a masterful lie.

Disagree, if pika or ZB are voted and found to be scum, then we can roll up most of the scum more easily. I was never a top lynch choice, except among the scum. Blacky, SW, Ragian, TX, chaps, and, of course, me have said at one time or another that it's not time to lynch Tobi. So, who are the 6 dumbshits that want to lynch a 6th townie?? Figured mafia would have night-killed me before this, but maybe a Master Misdirector is not high on their list of candidates. Scum know I am town, so look for the ones who are posting most often + mentioning the need to lynch Tobi. There you go....scum on a platter.

Go on then, who would you town/scum read if I or pika flip scum and why? Also stop acting like you're some sort of pro-town hero and everyone should know it.

Tobis alignment will tell us about other players while others players lynch would not. If tobi is town then ragoo is scum and chap is town. If tobi is scum then chap is his scum partner. Tobi is best lynch today.

I can buy chap being scum if tobi is scum for diverting votes away from tobi, I don't see why tobi being town would mean chap is town though.

Of course, scum hunting is going like crap because we have a million pages of speculation that any scum can hide behind. ......Some townies have polluted this thread playing into scum hands that now no one knows anything.

You make the point I have tried to make before. I have from D2, been upfront about what I did. It was confirmed by a townie (Mets) and someone I consider, at this juncture, scum (Pika). I have said when I have been successful and when have not. Now, on D4, ZB comes along and paints a picture which I think is a composite of things he gathered from all the things I and others have said on D2 and D3. I swear he's making it up, and calling me a liar in hopes that unperceiving townies will vote to lynch. Everything I've done checks out. Can ZB say the same. His confirmations are only his own words and his aspersions on me. Where's his proof? Nowhere. He's creating a legend synthesized from everyone else's words. SWANNY!!!

You still haven't answered how disclosing an ability the targets are aware of should give you town cred. Also I would think by speculation Rage means stuff like talks about what the flavour means (wonder who did that) and the "theories" SK used to put forward.

Right. I see what you're saying. But at this point in the game, it's not unnatural for scum to work together. So, let me get this straight. The only thing I get from you is that BuJ and Pika are in cahoots together. BuJ says he didn't land on his target, and Pika corroborates that. Do we know what "message" doesn't fik Mets and who stated it first if any? I don't trust Pika, you see.

No we don't know what the actual action result is. But if BuJ and Pika are lying about being redirected and TX is lying about not being so they could frame tobi, you'd think they'd be faster to vote him (atm only pika is)

[Skoffin]

on mob

Tob happily puts no real effort into scumhunting but calls us all dipshits for suslecting him. Cool story bro. I'llhappily lymch chap if tx wants.
So what we doing?
Can people at least state who their top suspects are so we can gain ground

[TX AG 90]

on mob

Tob happily puts no real effort into scumhunting but calls us all dipshits for suslecting him. Cool story bro. I'llhappily lymch chap if tx wants.
So what we doing?
Can people at least state who their top suspects are so we can gain ground

At the risk of being humiliated when this is over, I currently lean this way. They are in no particular order, that seems to change with every post I digest

Scum and/or 3rd Party Lean
blacky, pikanchion, sirius kase (possible 3rd party), skoffin (possible 3rd party)

Town Lean
Za Beast

Unsure
Rest

[TX AG 90]

Speaking of flavour, has everyone claimed an animal?

At first I thought we had 2 Scum parties: Ocean dwellers vs. surface dwellers, but now I'm I'm not sure.

I've always believed that The Seal was a 3rd Party (maybe an SK).

I remember Sirius speculating what the bubbles meant after N1 when there was a clear picture of a seal right there (how could he miss that?). I wonder if that was a misdirection play because he is The Seal AND an SK. I wouldn't put it past Razor to make SK an SK.

Has Sirius claimed an animal yet?

Mechanics question for you vets - this close to LyLo, would lynching an SK help or hurt town more?

[strike wolf]

So the people arguing hardest for Chaps plan in no particular order.

1. Tobi
2. Chap
3. Tx

People arguing most against it.

1. Skoffin
2. Pika
3. Zabeast

TX and Tobi have somewhat felt linked the last couple days with Tobi often supporting tx and backing up his logic on how healing poison should work Day 3. Chap was suspected early by both Mets and Aage and Aage seemed to comment that people more seemed to forget about Chap than clear the scum vibe.

Tobis pretty much proven that he has knowledge of a redirected action choices. Tx is a claimed healer/protector. Chaps plan does seem a bit overly complicated to have just been a scum ploy. Certainly there would have been an easier way to go about it...right?

ZaBeast claimed actions seem to be at odds with what others have said. Why? Skoffin was involved in a counter claim situati on thst helped lead to a townie death. She also seems to be being a bit unreasonably tempermental rather than focusing against Chaps plan in a way that's likely to yield positive results. Pika has posted some helpful information but as others have said, his actual scum hunting seems a little less impressive so the useful information could be just something he's hiding behind.

ZaBeast has generally felt like town to me and a few others I trust. With respect to the counter claim. Newer information points to several very similar roles existing in pairs. The cohesion between possible scum partners in this group seems less concrete than in the other group.

As an individual, Pika seems like a slightly better lynch. In terms of figuring out groups, Tobi feels better. Tx and Tobi feel more linked than Chap and either of them.

I'd say I'm slightly leaning Tobi for the vote right now.

[strike wolf]

Extra notes: Chap is obviously going to pull for his plan. It's his plan.

Tobi is likely to push for it as a main lynch potential outside the plan. Likewise, Pika is more likely to push against the plan because he's the main lynch choice when following the plan.