Tobikera wrote:I would also note that Mafia Watchers exist, which can be an effective power role for scum.

So you are proposing a game where the Mafia team has a Watcher, while the rest of the game is comprised a Lyncher (who has no action for the Watcher to observe), a Hider, and the rest as VTs?

dakky21 wrote:It's actually funny how Pika "watched" only still alive people. What is the chance for that? I'll tell you: to have 1 out of 11 alive is 1:11, then to have second out of 9 alive is 1:9, and third out of 8 alive is 1:8... that is multiplied and it turns to be 11 times 9 times 8 which equals 1:792 and therefore he should either buy a lotto ticket or he is lying. And Ragian is covering his ass.

For one thing, that is completely incorrect mathematically, but even if it were correct: how is this at all relevant if I am not claiming Cop? -If I watch somebody one night and they die the following night what does that say about me? Absolutely nothing.

The actual chance of me having performed the actions I claim and not seeing anything is as follows (assuming two Mafia, one of which performing no action):

ā N1:

jfm10 targeted me so I couldn't see jfm10 no matter my target. The chance of my target being the target of the NK N1 is 1/8 if my target is Town (which itself is a 8/10 chance), or 0 otherwise.

ā N2: jfm10 didn't target me, so if I chose my target randomly the chance of me targeting jfm10's target is 1/7. The chance of my target being the target of the NK that night is 1/6 if my target is Town (6/8), 0 otherwise.

ā N3: jfm10's target is unknown, so if I was not the target (a 6/7 chance) the chance of me choosing jfm10's target is 1/7, the chance otherwise is 0. The chance of my target being Mafia's target is 1/6 if my target is Town (6/8), 0 otherwise.

So the chance of me doing as claimed with the results claimed is (1 - [1/8 * 8/10]) * (1 - [1/7 + 1/6 * 6/8]) * (1 - [1/7 * 6/7 + 1/6 * 6/8]) = 49.59%