Leading indicators

[HitRed]

This is a small list of materials that are getting very expensive. Aluminum, copper, lumber. Theft of catalytic converters for platinum is common now.

Adding a new one to this list is corrugated board for making boxes. Box demand is far outpacing supply. Production time is taking 9 weeks IF manufacturers can get the material. My neighbor said, “I’ve been in this business 30 years and never seen anything like it”. Home delivery of products by Amazon, Walmart, eBay and a host of other companies is fueling increased demand. Everything moves in boxes.

[jimboston]

what happened to recycling?

[HitRed]

what happened to recycling?

Recycling requires an ID.

[jusplay4fun]

Recycled cardboard goes back to the paper mill to be added to the new cardboard at some stage. I toured a paper mill near where I live and saw that firsthand. I think they can only add 10% or so recycled; otherwise the strength of the paper fiber is too weak to make a good box.

That paper mill got a MAJOR input of capital some 10 years or so ago as someone saw the need for more boxes. The mill needed that as they were barely making it for some 20 years. They were some lean years there.

what happened to recycling?

[Dukasaur]

Recycled cardboard goes back to the paper mill to be added to the new cardboard at some stage. I toured a paper mill near where I live and saw that firsthand. I think they can only add 10% or so recycled; otherwise the strength of the paper fiber is too weak to make a good box.

That paper mill got a MAJOR input of capital some 10 years or so ago as someone saw the need for more boxes. The mill needed that as they were barely making it for some 20 years. They were some lean years there.

what happened to recycling?

One of the largest paper recycling plants in Canada is less than five miles from my house. In the time I've lived here, I've seen it go bankrupt and be sold to new owners three times. Once, you could put down to mismanagement. Twice, maybe. Three times shows what most people will tell you: paper recycling is a brutal business to be in, with a lot more supply than demand most of the time. It's very difficult to move the vast stockpiles the world has of recycled paper.

[HitRed]

Oil pipeline shutdown.

https://news.yahoo.com/cyberattack-forc ... 42785.html

Texas may be swimming in oil soon.

[jusplay4fun]

What happens when too few goods (and services) are chase by too much (deficit) money?

INFLATION

You heard it hear FIRST (perhaps)

Please see, on May 4, 2021:

They use to say we got the money Loaned to us from the Arab Oil tycoons, then China, NOW...? NOWHERE or the Federal Reserve?? That means to me that "they" are merely PRINTING MONEY. What does that lead to? INFLATION. And this is on top of rising prices for GASOLINE, what I call the Biden gas increase. I heard (on the Radio news) that some places are paying $5 per gallon, in Calif of course. Enough. OR TOO much, in this post and too much deficit spending.
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=227251&start=50

[mookiemcgee]

What happens when too few goods (and services) are chase by too much (deficit) money?

INFLATION

You heard it hear FIRST (perhaps)

Please see, on May 4, 2021:

They use to say we got the money Loaned to us from the Arab Oil tycoons, then China, NOW...? NOWHERE or the Federal Reserve?? That means to me that "they" are merely PRINTING MONEY. What does that lead to? INFLATION. And this is on top of rising prices for GASOLINE, what I call the Biden gas increase. I heard (on the Radio news) that some places are paying $5 per gallon, in Calif of course. Enough. OR TOO much, in this post and too much deficit spending.
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=227251&start=50

I agree on the point about inflation in a general sense...but CA $5 gas isn't because of inflation. It's taxes, carbons offsets, greedy oil companies, supply staying low in spite of people resuming their pre-pandemic driving behaviors. We've seen even higher prices in the past... 2013-2014 come to mind

https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/artic ... 0economist.

[HitRed]

greedy oil companies,

I own stock in two oil companies. No one uses the word greedy mentioning aluminum, gold, silver, copper, corn, wheat, rice, fish, beef or lumber companies. All react to supply and demand.

[mookiemcgee]

greedy oil companies,

No one uses the word greedy mentioning aluminum, gold, silver, copper, corn, wheat, rice, fish, beef or lumber companies.

Sure they do, people use the word greedy all the time for lots of reasons. Please stop acting like the oil industry is some kind of unique victim:

greedy fisheries - https://www.maritime-executive.com/arti ... -january-1
Greedy lumber mills - https://www.chronicleonline.com/news/lo ... b6b4c.html
Greedy gold corps - https://www.christiancentury.org/review ... -watershed
greedy mining companies (aluminium, cobalt, graphite) - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35340528 , https://newmatilda.com/2021/02/10/big-b ... un-shines/
Greedy beef retailers - https://www.dawn.com/news/1623191

I also own stock in oil companies!

[Dukasaur]

greedy oil companies,

I own stock in two oil companies. No one uses the word greedy mentioning aluminum, gold, silver, copper, corn, wheat, rice, fish, beef or lumber companies. All react to supply and demand.

The company I hate most is Quaker Oats. They cultivate this pure, wholesome, healthful image, while while marketing some of the most toxic shit known to man. Plain rolled oats are not too bad, but they form a vanishingly small percentage of the company's sales. Most of their profit comes from ground (Quick-Cook) or otherwise processed oat derivatives, saturated with sugar and other toxic waste, often compressed into candy bars and other drug-traffiking tricks.

At least when I buy a can of motor oil, I know it's toxic. Nobody's trying to pretend it isn't toxic. I can make an educated guess about the results before I feed it to my children.

[Dukasaur]

Not gonna lie, I own stock in a greedy gold mining company that uses antimony to poison the native population maximize supply.

I also own stock in an organic foods wholesaler. Who is going to go bankrupt if the fucking lockdown doesn't end soon. Greedy cunt.

[HitRed]

- Gordon Gekko

[mookiemcgee]

"Be on your guard against all kinds of greed; life does not consist in an abundance of possessions"

- from the book about that voice in your head you pretend is god

[Evil Semp]

greedy oil companies,

I own stock in two oil companies. No one uses the word greedy mentioning aluminum, gold, silver, copper, corn, wheat, rice, fish, beef or lumber companies. All react to supply and demand.

The company I hate most is Quaker Oats. They cultivate this pure, wholesome, healthful image, while while marketing some of the most toxic shit known to man. Plain rolled oats are not too bad, but they form a vanishingly small percentage of the company's sales. Most of their profit comes from ground (Quick-Cook) or otherwise processed oat derivatives, saturated with sugar and other toxic waste, often compressed into candy bars and other drug-traffiking tricks.

At least when I buy a can of motor oil, I know it's toxic. Nobody's trying to pretend it isn't toxic. I can make an educated guess about the results before I feed it to my children.

You hit me with both barrels. I work for the parent company of Quaker Oats and I work in the sweetest town in America where one of the big sugar companies is located.

[Dukasaur]

greedy oil companies,

I own stock in two oil companies. No one uses the word greedy mentioning aluminum, gold, silver, copper, corn, wheat, rice, fish, beef or lumber companies. All react to supply and demand.

The company I hate most is Quaker Oats. They cultivate this pure, wholesome, healthful image, while while marketing some of the most toxic shit known to man. Plain rolled oats are not too bad, but they form a vanishingly small percentage of the company's sales. Most of their profit comes from ground (Quick-Cook) or otherwise processed oat derivatives, saturated with sugar and other toxic waste, often compressed into candy bars and other drug-traffiking tricks.

At least when I buy a can of motor oil, I know it's toxic. Nobody's trying to pretend it isn't toxic. I can make an educated guess about the results before I feed it to my children.

You hit me with both barrels. I work for the parent company of Quaker Oats and I work in the sweetest town in America where one of the big sugar companies is located.

Ouch! Pepsi! Sorry...

[jusplay4fun]

What happens when too few goods (and services) are chase by too much (deficit) money?

INFLATION

You heard it hear FIRST (perhaps)

Please see, on May 4, 2021:

They use to say we got the money Loaned to us from the Arab Oil tycoons, then China, NOW...? NOWHERE or the Federal Reserve?? That means to me that "they" are merely PRINTING MONEY. What does that lead to? INFLATION. And this is on top of rising prices for GASOLINE, what I call the Biden gas increase. I heard (on the Radio news) that some places are paying $5 per gallon, in Calif of course. Enough. OR TOO much, in this post and too much deficit spending.
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=227251&start=50

I agree on the point about inflation in a general sense...but CA $5 gas isn't because of inflation. It's taxes, carbons offsets, greedy oil companies, supply staying low in spite of people resuming their pre-pandemic driving behaviors. We've seen even higher prices in the past... 2013-2014 come to mind

https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/artic ... 0economist.

I am aware of the high cost of gasoline in CA is due to many factors, of which many are stringent environmental ones. My point is to use that as a bellwether or leading indicator of rising prices (inflation) in general.

Should You Be Worried About Inflation?
Inflation may be an unavoidable economic fact of life, but it’s starting to make a lot of people very nervous.

Economists, investors and everyday folks believe inflation is primed for rapid growth as trillions in federal stimulus spending is layered on top of the Federal Reserve’s rock-bottom rates, a nascent economic recovery and hordes of newly vaccinated shoppers who are eager to spend.

The question is whether the coming wave of inflation will be a modest, easily managed wave or a dramatic flood that will roil markets, kneecap savers and cause the Fed to rapidly hike rates, imperilling the recovery.

Many financial professionals aren’t overly concerned that inflation will spiral out of control, especially since the economy has plenty of post-pandemic ground to make up. The administration of President Joe Biden is pinning its hopes on the idea that we’ve moved into an era of easy money without consequences.

But there are plenty of other observers who worry about a replay of the grim days of stagflation in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when inflation spiked and the economy stalled. While such dire scenarios are unlikely, .....

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/inflation-worries/

[mookiemcgee]

When i look at indications of inflation in the USA the thing that stands out to me most is the price of food, particularly at the commodity level. bottled water or Pepsi or maybe even like quaker oats...all seem to have been rising much more quickly over the last 5-7 years than any time I can remember in my lifetime

I'm not saying gas is always a bad example...but there are external factors right now that make the retail price in a corner of the country sort of skewed. Like wasn't oil trading in the negative in the last year? They were literally paying the wholesaler/refiners to take the oil for free.

[jusplay4fun]

When i look at indications of inflation in the USA the thing that stands out to me most is the price of food, particularly at the commodity level. bottled water or Pepsi or maybe even like quaker oats...all seem to have been rising much more quickly over the last 5-7 years than any time I can remember in my lifetime

I'm not saying gas is always a bad example...but there are external factors right now that make the retail price in a corner of the country sort of skewed. Like wasn't oil trading in the negative in the last year? They were literally paying the wholesaler/refiners to take the oil for free.

Here are the inflation rates for the past few years (for the USA). I checked 3 websites and they give the same basic numbers. I did not bother to compare in careful detail:

Inflation rate
2020 1.25%
2019 1.81%
2018 2.44%
2017 2.14%

The highest and lowest since 2000 were 3.8% in 2008 and then followed by-0.4% in 2009.

here is one website I used:
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

I think most of us recall the major economic downturn in 2009, following the growth in 2008, fueled in part by the housing bubble.

For the most part, inflation (in the USA, at least) has been kept in check. Many would credit the Federal Reserve for that.

You are correct, Mookie, that different sectors of the economy and different geographic regions have rates that differ from the overall trends; that is to be expected.

Mookie is also correct about the price of oil:

Crude Oil Prices - Historical Annual Data
Year Average Closing Price Annual % Change
2019 $56.99 35.42%
2018 $65.23 -25.32%
2017 $50.80 12.48%
https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

There is an interesting graph there, but I did not bother to post it here.

[jusplay4fun]

"Be on your guard against all kinds of greed; life does not consist in an abundance of possessions"

- from the book about that voice in your head you pretend is god

Good one, Mookie, the quote and the point, too.

[HitRed]

God speaks to the heart not the mind.

I call you deep from within your heart.

My heart calls out to each heart to turn to me for I am God who takes away the sin of the world. I have mercy on those who seek me with their heart. I do not spurn a contrite heart.

I call all hearts back to me at this time of great evil. I stand guard over the hearts that put their trust in me.

[mookiemcgee]

God speaks to the heart not the mind.

I call you deep from within your heart. Be greedy, this is the way

My heart calls out to each heart to turn to me for I am God who takes away the sin of the world. I have mercy on those who seek me with their heart. I do not spurn a contrite heart. Buy oil companies, i hid the oil there for you to prosper

I call all hearts back to me at this time of great evil. I stand guard over the hearts that put their trust in me. Trust in the me, do not fall victim to false prophets lost profits

fixed, since we now know the voice in your head is gordon gecko

[jusplay4fun]

God speaks to the heart not the mind.

I call you deep from within your heart.

My heart calls out to each heart to turn to me for I am God who takes away the sin of the world. I have mercy on those who seek me with their heart. I do not spurn a contrite heart.

I call all hearts back to me at this time of great evil. I stand guard over the hearts that put their trust in me.

Sorry, HR, but I will put my faith in God's Word, inspired by God and written in the Bible.

[HitRed]

100% in agreement.

[HitRed]

Inflation


“All hell will break loose” - Professor

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-05-13/- ... Hanke.html