Will President Bolsonaro invoke Article 142??!

[bigtoughralf]

Cope

[saxitoxin]

When your approval rating is at 39%, campaign promises don't mean much.

The Biden administration said it will resume selling leases to drill for oil and gas on federal lands starting next week. President Joe Biden, who on the campaign trail called for an end to drilling on federal lands, has been looking for ways to temporarily increase U.S. energy production to help drive down the price of gas.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/15/biden-a ... lands.html

This isn't going to help him. Now that he's tipped his hand that he'll revoke the permits as soon as it's politically expedient, no one will want to invest money in drilling infrastructure. They don't understand how any of this works. They're trying to run the world's superpower learn-as-you-go style.

[mookiemcgee]

If you compare Trumps average approval rating vs Biden for their first 450 in office... Trump had a higher rating for a total of roughly 50 days in this period vs Biden holding the lead for roughly 400 days.

as a comparison, after his first 450 days in office Jimmy Carter always had a higher approval rating that Biden (though we just hit the deathcross on that chart)

G.H Bush and Obama had higher ratings all of the first 450 days vs Biden

Reagan started with a lower rating the first 50 days but then beat biden up till day 450.

[saxitoxin]

If you compare Trumps average approval rating vs Biden for their first 450 in office... Trump had a higher rating for a total of roughly 50 days in this period vs Biden holding the lead for roughly 400 days.

a. Biden started high and has been in a steady downwards trajectory while Trump was consistent throughout. As people got to know Trump their opinion - good or bad - didn't change. Every day Biden remains in power he becomes more dislikable.

b. People vote their feelings today, not their feelings of 18 months ago. The most recent 30 days are always the most important 30 days.

c. Biden isn't just losing support, his losses are most acute among base Rat constituencies which will have reverberating impacts on the party as a whole. His core of support is now 65+ white men. Only the geriatric vote is keeping his numbers above the point where the Cabinet would have the popular mandate to invoke the 25th Amendment and seize power.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3843

[aad0906]

Most European countries have more than 2 parties. Netherlands has about 10 (but about 4 major parties). UK and Germany have about 4 major parties etc.
Netherlands: Liberal party, Christian Democrats, Labour, Green Left Party, Democrat party
UK: Conservative Party, Labour, Liberal Democrats
Germany: Christian Democrats, Liberal party, Social Democrat Party, Green Party

[Doc_Brown]

The polling averages tell a bit different story. Biden is polling right on top of Trump for the last couple months both in the approval and disapproval ratings. While his approval rating is similar to some other presidents, including Carter, his (and Trump's) disapproval rating is significantly worse. Also note that at this point in Trump's presidency, there were multiple news networks (CNN and MSNBC in particular, and most of the others to a somewhat lesser extent) that were running practically wall-to-wall coverage claiming Russian collusion, treason, etc... You also had multiple reports across the major networks suggesting that Trump was mentally incompetent or experiencing dementia. Meanwhile, we see video clips of Biden trying to shake the hand of someone that doesn't exist or getting disoriented and meandering around the stage after a speech, but the major networks just ignore it.

The point being, Biden and Trump had very similar polling numbers, but Biden is getting vastly more favorable treatment from the press, which is likely propping his numbers up several points.

[bigtoughralf]

Most European countries have more than 2 parties. Netherlands has about 10 (but about 4 major parties). UK and Germany have about 4 major parties etc.
Netherlands: Liberal party, Christian Democrats, Labour, Green Left Party, Democrat party
UK: Conservative Party, Labour, Liberal Democrats
Germany: Christian Democrats, Liberal party, Social Democrat Party, Green Party

The Lib Dems have been irrelevant ever since they self-combusted propping up their 2010-15 coalition government with the Conservatives. At the UK Parliament level the UK effectively has two parties, it's at the regional level that the other parties have consistently mattered (e.g. the SNP completely dominate Scotland's regional assembly, and the DUP/Sinn Fein jointly run Northern Ireland's assembly).

The regional assemblies set law and policy for pretty much everything that isn't defense or foreign policy so in practical terms that makes those regional parties really influential.

[jusplay4fun]

The only poll that really counts is called an election. Making Predictions NOW is too early. I would argue that a poll in April 2020 would say Trump wins re-election easily. I will conjecture that all of you know what did happen. AND there is no significant FRAUD. If you say so, offer actual PROOF and not wild crazy theories or ideas. I have challenged some to do so and so far, only ...crickets...

[bigtoughralf]

Who said polls don't matter? You've clearly never followed the Ligma

[saxitoxin]

With last week's polling numbers, Biden officially became the most unpopular president in American history.

However, he's now angling for a new record -- seeing approval drop into the 20s, something no president has ever accomplished. In today's Civiqs poll, Biden comes in at 33% approval.

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_pres ... oomIn=true

Just four more points to go and we're officially into the area where he needs to start looking at escape routes and exile countries.

[PureStink]

Most European countries have more than 2 parties. Netherlands has about 10 (but about 4 major parties). UK and Germany have about 4 major parties etc.
Netherlands: Liberal party, Christian Democrats, Labour, Green Left Party, Democrat party
UK: Conservative Party, Labour, Liberal Democrats
Germany: Christian Democrats, Liberal party, Social Democrat Party, Green Party

Don't forget the platinum jubilee party in the UK. Four days of national celebration are not to be sniffed at.

[jusplay4fun]

Who said polls don't matter? You've clearly never followed the Ligma

Dewey defeats Truman.

https://www.thewrap.com/every-poll-that-got-election-wrong-donald-trump/

When Donald Trump shocked the world to become the president-elect on Tuesday night, the biggest loser wasn’t his opponent Hillary Clinton, it was the polling industry that tricked America into thinking we’d be celebrating the first female president right about now.

The polls, which Trump has been calling inaccurate and rigged for months, made it seem like Clinton was a lock to occupy the White House come January.

Polls don't matter when they are WRONG.

poorsoftsmallRalph is wrong again. But he has a long way to catch saxi, who is wrong about once per week.

[mookiemcgee]

With last week's polling numbers, Biden officially became the most unpopular president in American history.

However, he's now angling for a new record -- seeing approval drop into the 20s, something no president has ever accomplished. In today's Civiqs poll, Biden comes in at 33% approval.

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_pres ... oomIn=true

Just four more points to go and we're officially into the area where he needs to start looking at escape routes and exile countries.

I agree with Saxi, polls and the opinions of Americans are important. That's why the DOJ should file criminal charges against Donald Trump.

https://navigatorresearch.org/support-f ... ns-strong/

"A Majority Support the DOJ Filing Criminal Charges Against Donald Trump for His Involvement with January 6th"



"Republicans remain the only partisan or racial group in which a majority (71%) express opposition to the Department of Justice filing criminal charges against the former president, while a plurality of independents (47%) support it."

[saxitoxin]

With last week's polling numbers, Biden officially became the most unpopular president in American history.

However, he's now angling for a new record -- seeing approval drop into the 20s, something no president has ever accomplished. In today's Civiqs poll, Biden comes in at 33% approval.

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_pres ... oomIn=true

Just four more points to go and we're officially into the area where he needs to start looking at escape routes and exile countries.

I agree with Saxi, polls and the opinions of Americans are important. That's why the DOJ should file criminal charges against Donald Trump.

https://navigatorresearch.org/support-f ... ns-strong/

"A Majority Support the DOJ Filing Criminal Charges Against Donald Trump for His Involvement with January 6th"



"Republicans remain the only partisan or racial group in which a majority (71%) express opposition to the Department of Justice filing criminal charges against the former president, while a plurality of independents (47%) support it."

Such a credible and unbiased poll...

Navigator is a resource for developing and distributing winning progressive messages and polling on the most pressing issues of the moment.

[jusplay4fun]

Why would Republicans favor criminal investigation of the former Republican President?

The "Best" evidence presented by Democrats and TWO anti-Trump Republicans have NOT made the case that Trump needs to charged. Even the Democratic Chairman of the House Committee said so.

Following day two of the House select committee's hearings on Jan. 6, Chairman Bennie Thompson told reporters the panel will not make any criminal referrals of former President Donald Trump or anyone else to the justice department

and

“Drama”: Jan. 6 committee chairman says they won’t refer Trump to DOJ — and Liz Cheney is not happy
Bennie Thompson's surprising comments sparked rare public pushback from Liz Cheney and the committee's Democrats

https://www.salon.com/2022/06/14/drama-jan-6-committee-chairman-says-they-wont-refer-to-doj--and-liz-cheney-is-not-happy/

[saxitoxin]

Why would Republicans favor criminal investigation of the former Republican President?

The "Best" evidence presented by Democrats and TWO anti-Trump Republicans have NOT made the case that Trump needs to charged. Even the Democratic Chairman of the House Committee said so.

Following day two of the House select committee's hearings on Jan. 6, Chairman Bennie Thompson told reporters the panel will not make any criminal referrals of former President Donald Trump or anyone else to the justice department

and

“Drama”: Jan. 6 committee chairman says they won’t refer Trump to DOJ — and Liz Cheney is not happy
Bennie Thompson's surprising comments sparked rare public pushback from Liz Cheney and the committee's Democrats

https://www.salon.com/2022/06/14/drama-jan-6-committee-chairman-says-they-wont-refer-to-doj--and-liz-cheney-is-not-happy/

Yup. In 150 days the committee will be dissolved and its records shredded by the new GOP majority. And then an identical committee will be formed to investigate every single member of the Biden family, even the 8 year old granddaughter, until they've been bankrupt from legal fees.

And then comes 2024 and the election of Tom Cotton as POTUS. The last election we will ever need. Not making the mistake of 2020 a second time.

[jusplay4fun]

Trump made mistakes and his speech on Jan. 6 is a BAD one. His failure to ADMIT that he LOST the election in Nov. 2020 is also bad and led to the events of Jan. 6. I have seen NO significant evidence that Trump actually caused the attack of a few of his many RABID followers. I think his words, speeches, messages and actions leading up to the attack are despicable and contributed to this false narrative of a stolen election. He started to say this EVEN BEFORE Election Day.

The same for the charges and allegations of election fraud by Trump. There is NO evidence of widespread election fraud and certainly not enough to overturn the results state by state. NOT enough proof.

Hillary, Stacy Abrams, and others are sore political losers; Trump happens to be one of the biggest (if NOT the BIGGEST). Trump is a big Cry Baby. Trump is also an egotist and a narcissist.

To many people, President Donald Trump’s effort to overturn an election may have seemed unprecedented. Many members of the media have cast Trump’s efforts as unheard of. But sitting in Georgia, it was impossible to watch the events after November 3 without seeing the unmistakable signs of the Stacey Abrams playbook: Don’t concede. Say you were cheated. Allege voter irregularities. File lawsuits. Get witness testimony. Raise money. Repeat.

The parallels in their statements alone are compelling enough. After losing by 55,000 votes in November 2018, Abrams said: “This is not a speech of concession. Concession means to acknowledge an action is right, true or proper. . . . I cannot concede.” After losing by a slimmer 12,000 votes, President Trump told the crowd gathered in Washington, D.C., on January 6 that “we will never concede. It doesn’t happen. You don’t concede when there’s theft involved.”

https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/03/the-stacey-abrams-playbook-for-crying-stolen-election/

Last point, for now: Declaring Tom Cotton (OR anyone else as the next POTUS in 2024) is way too PREMATURE.

[saxitoxin]

Old Joe was on the campaign trail this morning.