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Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

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Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby Dukasaur on Sat Mar 11, 2023 12:18 am

Most people still wonder how resilient the U.S. economy has been and how long it has staved off a recession that has been predicted for at least 18 months. Is the second largest bank failure in history enough to finally push it over the cliff?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/conormurray/2023/03/10/what-to-know-about-silicon-valley-banks-collapse-the-biggest-bank-failure-since-2008/?sh=1c3a7ff63a21
SVB reported $212 billion in assets for the fourth quarter of 2022, making it the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history, second only to Washington Mutual, whose 2008 failure came as the bank had roughly $300 billion in assets. Silicon Valley Bank ranked as the 16th-largest bank in the United States based on assets prior to its collapse.

KEY BACKGROUND
After the tech industry grew during the pandemic, SVB’s clients deposited billions, bringing the bank from $60 billion in total deposits at the end of the first quarter 2020 to nearly $200 billion two years later. While deposits came in, SVB invested in debt like U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, but as the Federal Reserve began to increase interest rates to combat inflation, the value of SVB’s investments fell. Higher interest rates also took a toll on SVB’s clients: Startup funding began to dry up as private fundraising became more costly, causing its clients to withdraw funds. Amid the surge in withdrawals, SVB sold assets (including bonds that had lost value due to interest rate increases) which created $1.8 billion in losses.

TANGENT
The failure of both SVB on Friday and cryptocurrency bank Silvergate on Wednesday sparked fears of contagion and drew uncomfortable comparisons to the Great Recession. Some analysts agree contagion concerns are overblown in light of “idiosyncratic issues at individual banks,” Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala said, as SVB and Silvergate primarily operated within industries vulnerable to higher interest rates (cryptocurrencies, startups and venture capital) and many banks have broader customer bases. But shares of some of the nation’s largest banks, including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup, were up Friday after slumping on Thursday.
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby HitRed on Sat Mar 11, 2023 8:31 am

Since 1980 when interest rates rose above the trend line a recession happened. Also, the amount of interest rate increase needed to cause a recession has be on a strong downward trend (red line). The more the interest rates go above the long term trend the longer the recession lasts. Currently, it is very high above the trend line.

Blue lines are interest rates. Gray areas are recessions.

Current interest rate is 4.5%-4.75 on the right side of the chart. So mentally add it. It is vastly higher than the red trend line.

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Last edited by HitRed on Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:29 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby ConfederateSS on Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:00 am

---------This one, and the Bank crash in 2008 A.D.....
------------ Shouldn't it be the worst between 1929 A.D.---1946 A.D.....The Stock Market crashed.... America really didn't get going until after World War 2....
------------- They didn't keep records back than...
------------- Is it the amount of money, or the number of Banks...I know money was less, I mean things cost less back than....But in The 1930's A.D. and 1930 A.D. itself....There was a run on all the banks...Many banks went under...More people lost everything back than...Not Rich ,Rich people....You had 30, 50 million poor people losing everything...I think that was far worse...Than 2008 A.D....and The FTX. SVB, like 5 more richy,richy shit banks going under...I'm thinking this is the 3rd worst..... Because this one, the 2008 A.D. not just the banks bailed out...But everyone is insured up to I think $50,000.. by the government.... During the Great Depression, no one was, you lost everything....That sounds worse...Who and the hell is making up these stats??? ;)
.... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:) ... That is why I have a few 1,000s... Buried in a near by cemetery...I don't trust banks,etc...There are 2 in the Southwest...Serbia, guess the right one to dig in... ;) ...
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby Dukasaur on Sat Mar 11, 2023 11:11 am

HitRed wrote:Since 1980 when interest rates rose above the trend line a recession happened. Also, the amount of interest rate increase needed to cause a recession has be on a strong downward trend (red line). The more the interest rates go above the long term trend the longer the recession lasts. Currently, it is very high above the trend line.

Blue lines are interest rates. Gray areas are recessions.

Current interest rate is 4.5%-4.75 on the right side of the chart. So mentally add it. It is vastly higher than the red trend line.

Image


Interesting.

But the red trend line is just empirical observation? It's not a theoretical prediction?
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby HitRed on Sat Mar 11, 2023 12:08 pm

History doesn’t repeat it self but we can look for trends. So Yes then No.

Some interesting possibilities exist if this trend continues. Imagine 10, 15, 20 years ahead. If the downward trend is a reaction to the ever growing nation debt do we reach a point where raising interest rates are impossible? If we have one less tool in the toolbox what would replace it?
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby jimboston on Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:43 am

HitRed wrote:History doesn’t repeat it self but we can look for trends. So Yes then No.

Some interesting possibilities exist if this trend continues. Imagine 10, 15, 20 years ahead. If the downward trend is a reaction to the ever growing nation debt do we reach a point where raising interest rates are impossible? If we have one less tool in the toolbox what would replace it?



Smaller Federal Budget?
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby mookiemcgee on Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:31 pm

unpopular opinion... SVB is going to be insulated without a ton of contagion issues. Am i hedging against the fact i might be wrong absolutely.

I think we might already be in a recession, but i also feel like while this is a big deal it isn't 2008 all over again.
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby HitRed on Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:38 pm

mookiemcgee wrote:Am i hedging against the fact i might be wrong absolutely.


What does hedging in this situation look like?
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby KoolBak on Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:13 pm

This is fascinating. Amazing that a "bank run" is still a thing; self fulfilling prophecy.

Back in my banker says, I was in correspondent banking for many years (I lent to downstream banks in the form of overnight fed funds lines of credit predicated on their liquidity).

All banks are basically on the verge of bankruptcy all the time. Average leverage is HIGH where a normal company doesn't typically exceed a ratio of 1:1, they are 4-10:1.

As far as balance sheets go, "Assets" are majorly compromised of loans they've made. Cash deposits by customers are Liabilities.

The good old fashioned bank run means they can't pay their bills and can't borrow enough overnight to remain liquid, and poof ...they're done.

The massive fund managers announcing customers should grab their cash puts the bank down....I wonder who's next? Conspiracy, anyone? :lol:

Amazing .....
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby jusplay4fun on Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:40 pm

New developments, to ease the "Ripple Effects of the SVB failure":

U.S. says all deposits at failed bank will be available Monday
Regulators also closed down Signature Bank of New York on Sunday, and said they are extending protection to those depositors
By Jeff Stein, David J. Lynch, Tony Romm and Tyler Pager
Updated March 12, 2023 at 9:21 p.m. EDT|Published March 12, 2023 at 2:29 p.m. EDT

The Biden administration announced Sunday night that all depositors at the failed Silicon Valley Bank would have access to all their money on Monday morning, approving an extraordinary intervention aimed at averting a crisis in the financial system.

Authorities said they were also extending protection to depositors of a second bank, Signature Bank of New York, which state regulators closed on Sunday as unease in the financial sector spread. Separately, the Federal Reserve announced that it was creating a lending facility for the nation’s banks, designed to buttress them against financial risks caused by Friday’s collapse of SVB.

(...)

The decision by Treasury to backstop all deposits at SVB and Signature — not just those up to $250,000 that are insured under federal law — rested on a judgment that it was necessary to avoid a wider “systemic” meltdown. The move will likely ignite a political firestorm over the decision to protect the assets of tech firms, venture capitalists, and other rich people in California.

Today we are taking decisive actions to protect the U.S. economy by strengthening public confidence in our banking system,” a joint statement from the Treasury Department, the Fed and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said. “This step will ensure that the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles of protecting deposits and providing access to credit to households and businesses in a manner that promotes strong and sustainable economic growth.

On a call with reporters on Sunday evening, a senior Treasury official defended the administration’s decision as necessary to stabilize the banking system and said that the move would protect companies and workers who could be harmed by the bank’s collapse — not the bank’s shareholders or executives. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations.

The decision to protect all deposits was made following unanimous recommendations by the boards of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Federal Reserve, the nation’s top banking regulators. President Biden was also consulted on the announcement.”


https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2023/03/12/silicon-valley-bank-deposits/
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby HitRed on Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:57 pm


The government backs all.


Reserve requirements
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby ConfederateSS on Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:58 pm

------------ The 250,000 Insured was never in question....Lots of people have way more than that...
------------- But who do people believe....The Secretary of the Treasury Yellen says one thing....Biden and his advisors/regulators say another...Monday will come soon enough....I'm thinking, a lot of people will be looking for tall buildings and open windows, Monday night, after what is really going to happen, happens...Only missed the 1929 A.D...Stock market crash...100th Anniversary by 6 years... ;)
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---------- Remember what I said about World War 3....It will start soon, but I didn't say it will be the End...As for China/Taiwan....The best time to invade, best high tides....Around March 21st, and September 21st...The clock is ticking...
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby jusplay4fun on Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:33 pm

alarmists; now you are both sounding like saxi: THE SKY IS FALLING..!!

All this is hyperbole.
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby jonesthecurl on Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:02 am

Well, it looks like it'll damage the CA wine industry at the very least.
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby saxitoxin on Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:06 am

America's next vice-president, Vivek Ramawhatever, said that tech companies spent the weekend trying to drum-up fears of contagion unless their deposits were bailed out by the government in order to create political pressure for a bail out.

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viewtopic.php?f=8&t=241668&start=200#p5349880
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby ConfederateSS on Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:15 am

jusplay4fun wrote:alarmists; now you are both sounding like saxi: THE SKY IS FALLING..!!

All this is hyperbole.

-------- No, we all know China will take Taiwan before the Next U.S. Presidential Election....
--------- Like in 1929 A.D. , The very well off....Jump out of Windows... Because they didn't know how to live, not having everything handed to them...
--------- While regular people were not bothered much, because they knew how to do things on their own...
--------- Skip forward to today's society....
--------- People freakout when there is a power outage....Oh!,No! What am I going to do...
--------- They can't live without their cell phones, cars(they have to drive everywhere, no one walks, etc., anymore,than wonder why Americans are over weight...)...
--------- Unfortunately, this lazy on society...Has it's biggest toll on the children....Yes, the pandemic drove them crazy, but it was before the pandemic....The Entitled Society, car doors that open by themselves, Why???...They don't know how to communicate without their phones(I use the term phone lightly)...Many of them can't cope when shit hits the fan...Not having things handed to them...A disruption in their normal routine....Most of these New Technology Rich , Young, always had things done for them...By others or technology...
--------- Sure Jp4fun we know how to deal with ... Failure, Blackouts, We walked to school, we could go outside play until the street lights came on...You can't drag today's kids outside in July....
--------- The sky is not falling....It is Today's Society...The wind changed direction, what do I do???
--------- They don't know the old saying...The Chatbots probably won't either....You know who does the programming...
.....
I think it comes from...The rain in Spain falls gently on the plain...
---------- What do they do in Spain when it rains???
---------- They let it rain... :D ...
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby jimboston on Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:45 am

saxitoxin wrote:America's next vice-president, Vivek Ramawhatever, said that tech companies spent the weekend trying to drum-up fears of contagion unless their deposits were bailed out by the government in order to create political pressure for a bail out.



It’s probably true.

Whether or not those fears are justified is another question.

I think the “>$250K” guarantee sets a dangerous precedent…. but we seems to like to do things like that.
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby jimboston on Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:50 am

ConfederateSS wrote:-------- No, we all know China will take Taiwan before the Next U.S. Presidential Election....


I didn’t know this.

Does China know this?

Do you have inside info from The Communist Party in China?

This absolutely ain’t happening. I’m NOT saying they will never invade Taiwan… that’s certainly possible.
Before Nov. 2024? No.

When this doesn’t happen will you admit that most of what you “KNOW” is bullshit and you really “Know Nothing”?
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby Dukasaur on Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:47 am

jimboston wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:America's next vice-president, Vivek Ramawhatever, said that tech companies spent the weekend trying to drum-up fears of contagion unless their deposits were bailed out by the government in order to create political pressure for a bail out.



It’s probably true.

Whether or not those fears are justified is another question.

I think the “>$250K” guarantee sets a dangerous precedent…. but we seems to like to do things like that.


I think it was a dangerous precedent not sending anybody to jail after 2008. I knew the bailout regime would get worse. Still, I'm shocked at this. Overnight decision to do a 100% bailout that almost nobody except a few self-interested CEOs in a small minority of companies was even pressing for. Nobody suffers any consequences at all except the taxpayers. Horrific.
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby jusplay4fun on Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:18 am

ConfederateSS wrote:
jusplay4fun wrote:alarmists; now you are both sounding like saxi: THE SKY IS FALLING..!!

All this is hyperbole.

-------- No, we all know China will take Taiwan before the Next U.S. Presidential Election....
--------- Like in 1929 A.D. , The very well off....Jump out of Windows... Because they didn't know how to live, not having everything handed to them...
--------- While regular people were not bothered much, because they knew how to do things on their own...
--------- Skip forward to today's society....
--------- People freakout when there is a power outage....Oh!,No! What am I going to do...
--------- They can't live without their cell phones, cars(they have to drive everywhere, no one walks, etc., anymore,than wonder why Americans are over weight...)...
--------- Unfortunately, this lazy on society...Has it's biggest toll on the children....Yes, the pandemic drove them crazy, but it was before the pandemic....The Entitled Society, car doors that open by themselves, Why???...They don't know how to communicate without their phones(I use the term phone lightly)...Many of them can't cope when shit hits the fan...Not having things handed to them...A disruption in their normal routine....Most of these New Technology Rich , Young, always had things done for them...By others or technology...
--------- Sure Jp4fun we know how to deal with ... Failure, Blackouts, We walked to school, we could go outside play until the street lights came on...You can't drag today's kids outside in July....
--------- The sky is not falling....It is Today's Society...The wind changed direction, what do I do???
--------- They don't know the old saying...The Chatbots probably won't either....You know who does the programming...[/size].....
I think it comes from...The rain in Spain falls gently on the plain...
---------- What do they do in Spain when it rains???
---------- They let it rain... :D ...[/size]... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:)


--------- Sure Jp4fun we know how to deal with ... Failure, Blackouts, We walked to school, we could go outside play until the street lights came on...You can't drag today's kids outside in July....


We can't drag the kids back to 1976, either, ConfedSS.
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby Dukasaur on Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:12 pm

jusplay4fun wrote:
ConfederateSS wrote:
jusplay4fun wrote:alarmists; now you are both sounding like saxi: THE SKY IS FALLING..!!

All this is hyperbole.

-------- No, we all know China will take Taiwan before the Next U.S. Presidential Election....
--------- Like in 1929 A.D. , The very well off....Jump out of Windows... Because they didn't know how to live, not having everything handed to them...
--------- While regular people were not bothered much, because they knew how to do things on their own...
--------- Skip forward to today's society....
--------- People freakout when there is a power outage....Oh!,No! What am I going to do...
--------- They can't live without their cell phones, cars(they have to drive everywhere, no one walks, etc., anymore,than wonder why Americans are over weight...)...
--------- Unfortunately, this lazy on society...Has it's biggest toll on the children....Yes, the pandemic drove them crazy, but it was before the pandemic....The Entitled Society, car doors that open by themselves, Why???...They don't know how to communicate without their phones(I use the term phone lightly)...Many of them can't cope when shit hits the fan...Not having things handed to them...A disruption in their normal routine....Most of these New Technology Rich , Young, always had things done for them...By others or technology...
--------- Sure Jp4fun we know how to deal with ... Failure, Blackouts, We walked to school, we could go outside play until the street lights came on...You can't drag today's kids outside in July....
--------- The sky is not falling....It is Today's Society...The wind changed direction, what do I do???
--------- They don't know the old saying...The Chatbots probably won't either....You know who does the programming...[/size].....
I think it comes from...The rain in Spain falls gently on the plain...
---------- What do they do in Spain when it rains???
---------- They let it rain... :D ...[/size]... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:)


--------- Sure Jp4fun we know how to deal with ... Failure, Blackouts, We walked to school, we could go outside play until the street lights came on...You can't drag today's kids outside in July....


We can't drag the kids back to 1976, either, ConfedSS.


If we could, I'd want a place on the bus ahead of the kids...:)
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby Dukasaur on Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:14 pm

KoolBak wrote:This is fascinating. Amazing that a "bank run" is still a thing; self fulfilling prophecy.

Back in my banker says, I was in correspondent banking for many years (I lent to downstream banks in the form of overnight fed funds lines of credit predicated on their liquidity).

All banks are basically on the verge of bankruptcy all the time. Average leverage is HIGH where a normal company doesn't typically exceed a ratio of 1:1, they are 4-10:1.

As far as balance sheets go, "Assets" are majorly compromised of loans they've made. Cash deposits by customers are Liabilities.

The good old fashioned bank run means they can't pay their bills and can't borrow enough overnight to remain liquid, and poof ...they're done.

The massive fund managers announcing customers should grab their cash puts the bank down....I wonder who's next? Conspiracy, anyone? :lol:

Amazing .....


But a conspiracy needs a strong beneficiary. Who benefits here?

I know some people will make some transactional profits here, but nothing extraordinary, I wouldn't think. Most players will either break even or come out with a small loss, no?
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby jimboston on Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:23 pm

Dukasaur wrote:
jimboston wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:America's next vice-president, Vivek Ramawhatever, said that tech companies spent the weekend trying to drum-up fears of contagion unless their deposits were bailed out by the government in order to create political pressure for a bail out.



It’s probably true.

Whether or not those fears are justified is another question.

I think the “>$250K” guarantee sets a dangerous precedent…. but we seems to like to do things like that.


I think it was a dangerous precedent not sending anybody to jail after 2008. I knew the bailout regime would get worse. Still, I'm shocked at this. Overnight decision to do a 100% bailout that almost nobody except a few self-interested CEOs in a small minority of companies was even pressing for. Nobody suffers any consequences at all except the taxpayers. Horrific.


Even with the bailout the markets are in turmoil. We are headed for a recession IDK that this stops it.

That said… the potential losses are much greater than “a few self-interested CEO’s”. There’s real risk to the overall market.
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Re: Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

Postby mookiemcgee on Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:33 pm

HitRed wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:Am i hedging against the fact i might be wrong absolutely.


What does hedging in this situation look like?


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