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*Pixar* wrote:Dunk90 wrote:There is so much shit going on in the game. I CANNOT keep track of it. My head is spinning from all the accusations, finger pointing, deep investigations, and falsehoods. But from someone who hasn't played before and looking at this objectively, I think the ones who talk the most and try to hard in the beginning look the most suspicious. That is why I voted Pixar. I have suspected him from day 1. I have other suspicions of others but will reserve my feelings on them until we see what Pixar is all about. If he's been Town all along and I'm wrong about him then I will have to rethink my analysis.
BUT UNTIL THEN..........VOTE LYNCH PIXAR
Double votingā¦
DukeHazzard wrote:PepeAtila wrote:
... But for Lynch are need 8 votes from 14 ... now Jmac 6 votes and *Pixar* 5 votes
I get that no one is trusting me, but whatever. The fact remains that we don't get a lynch if we can't agree. Jmac is up and we only need 2 to switch sides. Town needs a lynch and time is short
FP by dega
degaston wrote:I haven't done a count, but based on Pepe's post it looks like both Pix and JMac are at L-2. Should they both claim?
degaston wrote:DukeHazzard wrote:PepeAtila wrote:
... But for Lynch are need 8 votes from 14 ... now Jmac 6 votes and *Pixar* 5 votes
I get that no one is trusting me, but whatever. The fact remains that we don't get a lynch if we can't agree. Jmac is up and we only need 2 to switch sides. Town needs a lynch and time is short
FP by dega
We still have more than 24 hours.
fusibaseball wrote:Not sure why the majority number has to be 8. We have 13 players eligible to vote, should be 7.
Josh may be hinting at the confirmation of a Cat role in play:
https://mafia.gg/guide/roles
Notice that his messages have decreased in length across all 4 posts today. I think the Cat on our hands just doesn't have to silence themselves. So we may have Agent and Cat still active, with likely a 5th unknown role.
Currently 6 votes JMac, 5 votes Pixar, Deg's vote for Duke, and Dukasaur has yet again not voted. He's basically Dead Weight Bax 2.0.
joshzam wrote:--. .. -... -... . .-. .. ... ....
Dunk90 wrote:joshzam wrote:--. .. -... -... . .-. .. ... ....
Can anyone translate Morse code?
degaston wrote:If Duke is lying about his role, then Pixar might or might not be scum, but there is no case where Pixar is scum and Duke is not.
Dunk90 wrote:fusibaseball wrote:Not sure why the majority number has to be 8. We have 13 players eligible to vote, should be 7.
Josh may be hinting at the confirmation of a Cat role in play:
https://mafia.gg/guide/roles
Notice that his messages have decreased in length across all 4 posts today. I think the Cat on our hands just doesn't have to silence themselves. So we may have Agent and Cat still active, with likely a 5th unknown role.
Currently 6 votes JMac, 5 votes Pixar, Deg's vote for Duke, and Dukasaur has yet again not voted. He's basically Dead Weight Bax 2.0.
DUKASAUR....Why aren't you voting????!!!!!
fusibaseball wrote:Too many lies, way too many lies.
Vote Pixar
Duke, I have a job for you. Tonight, ask Raz if I'm Town. You will 100% get a Yes response. Tomorrow during the day, before we lynch someone, we can use your ability to confirm that that player getting lynched is not Town. And if they are, Town can pivot to someone else. Deal?
fusibaseball wrote:degaston wrote:If Duke is lying about his role, then Pixar might or might not be scum, but there is no case where Pixar is scum and Duke is not.
Can you elaborate on this?
fusibaseball wrote:Degaston, I interpret you as an advanced Mafia player so I'm going to go pretty in-depth here to justify a Pixar vote right now and please let me know where my logic is flawed. You would be the 7th and necessary hammer vote (if Raz modifies a lynch from 8 to 7 votes) at a critical point in the game so your decision here matters a lot.
I agree in retrospect that a lynch onto DukeHazzard would have been more advantageous to Town than a vote onto Pixar. However, a vote onto Pixar provides immense utility for reference through previous actions. For example, starting at the very top, Day 1, Pixar outright votes Dunk within 5 hours of game start. We have a confirmed 3rd party player who bandwagons within 24 hours. We can already extrapolate Dunk is never Third party. If Pix flips Scum, Dunk is now 100% Town and that is largely collective knowledge which cannot be refuted.
Duke's now-debunked note will justify allegiance to Pixar and likely Pepe as well. This is a player who hides Days 1 and 2 and immediately fabricates a note to attenuate pressure off Pixar and Pepe, the two primary targets at that stage. If Pixar flips Scum, we can extrapolate Duke as Scum and the vote tomorrow is easy. If Pixar flips 3rd party, we do the same...vote tomorrow is easy.
Take Maxleod, a player who you may find confusing at this stage. He and Pixar cannot be aligned given how much pressure they have placed on each other. If Pixar flips Scum, we can infer Max is 3rd party or Town and should not be targeted (generally). If Pixar flips 3rd party, we can infer Max is Town or Scum. If Pixar flips Town, we have significant evidence to go after Max tomorrow.
This vote today is quite different from Days 2 and 3 because I think it itself can provide a lot of insight. Given how close it is, if he flips Mafia, we can safely assume the remaining Mafia players to be in the group of 6 who vote JMac. That clears half the lobby.
Even if you don't find him suspicious, a player at the center of so much controversy provides tremendous intel upon reveal. What does a lynch onto JMac get us? About as much information as Bax's did...nada.
Ragian has estimated that the average Mafia game has a Town:Mafia ratio of 3:1. In a group of 24 players, I estimate we started with 15:5:4 Town:Mafia:3rd Party. You can give or take 1 to each group given the specific setup Raz chose, but that's roughly the ballpark we're working with. We have lost 7 Town, 2 Mafia, 1 3rd Party. So we're looking at roughly 8:3:3, with the 3 remaining Mafia as Agent, Spy, and some other 5th role hiding really well. I re-emphasize the ratios because the more I think about it, the less urgent the situation becomes. Mafia will never gain majority until final 11, and that's worst-case scenario if 3rd party and Mafia numbers are combined. More likely, they're not, in which case Mafia does not reach majority until final 5. In other words, I think intel gathering should be the primary focus right now, even at the risk of losing someone you interpret as not Mafia.
I'm not sure what you mean here. Neither one has been lynched yet, so what is "in retrospect"?fusibaseball wrote:I agree in retrospect that a lynch onto DukeHazzard would have been more advantageous to Town than a vote onto Pixar.
fusibaseball wrote:If Pix flips Scum, Dunk is now 100% Town and that is largely collective knowledge which cannot be refuted.
fusibaseball wrote:Take Maxleod, a player who you may find confusing at this stage. He and Pixar cannot be aligned given how much pressure they have placed on each other. If Pixar flips Scum, we can infer Max is 3rd party or Town and should not be targeted (generally). If Pixar flips 3rd party, we can infer Max is Town or Scum. If Pixar flips Town, we have significant evidence to go after Max tomorrow.
fusibaseball wrote:Ragian has estimated that the average Mafia game has a Town:Mafia ratio of 3:1...
degaston wrote:fusibaseball wrote:If Pix flips Scum, Dunk is now 100% Town and that is largely collective knowledge which cannot be refuted.
Absolutely false. Dunk stated that Pix was town, so if Pix flips scum, then Dunk was lying, and is also scum.
I'm not sure what you mean here. Neither one has been lynched yet, so what is "in retrospect"?fusibaseball wrote:I agree in retrospect that a lynch onto DukeHazzard would have been more advantageous to Town than a vote onto Pixar.
fusibaseball wrote:Take Maxleod, a player who you may find confusing at this stage. He and Pixar cannot be aligned given how much pressure they have placed on each other. If Pixar flips Scum, we can infer Max is 3rd party or Town and should not be targeted (generally). If Pixar flips 3rd party, we can infer Max is Town or Scum. If Pixar flips Town, we have significant evidence to go after Max tomorrow.
fusibaseball wrote:Ragian has estimated that the average Mafia game has a Town:Mafia ratio of 3:1...
degaston wrote:...I don't think you've given enough thought to what happens if he flips town or 3rd party. Duke only said that he was not mafia. So why would you lynch Duke if Pixar was 3rd party? If Pixar is not scum, then is Duke a townie who is telling the truth, or is he scum, (who know all the non-scum players) and wanted to set himself up with confirmation of his power, wanted some town players (like Pepe) who would vouch for his "honesty", and wanted to be able to play puppet-master and lead the town to its death at a later time?
degaston wrote:My point is that analyzing voting patterns can be misleading, because the townies are confused, and the scum want to mislead you
Darin44 wrote:degaston wrote:My point is that analyzing voting patterns can be misleading, because the townies are confused, and the scum want to mislead you
The more I read the more I get confused
I like what degaston has to say, but fusibaseball has a point too
I would like to change my vote and go with degaston, But I will keep it for now
FP"d fusibaseball
Unvote Pixar, vote DukeHazzard
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