by Aimless on Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:03 pm
Regarding wicked / IC :
We have a claimed investigation with a scum result. IC and wicked have a history of going after each other on day one (see ManHunt mafia); and, this isn't the first time IC's landed a funky role like this (again, see ManHunt). My first, natural instinct is to trust his result.
My second instinct say that wicked revealed enough information regarding her role that either she's telling the truth or she was given that information as part of a safe fake claim. I can see either happening.
So, there are several possible scenarios (ordered by what I think is most likely most likely to least likely) :
Possibility 1 : IC is telling the truth, wicked is scum. Usually, people don't fake a cop claim on Day 1 without extreme extenuating circumstances. The only time faking a cop claim this early is when you know that there won't be consequences after the lynch. Plus, IC claim to have a one-shot investigative role rings somewhat true to me; if he did have it, I can certainly see him using it on wicked.
Possibility 2 : IC is a lyncher (or grudgeholder), wicked is his target. While this would fit the circumstances, the odds that IC would get wicked as a target randomly (*stares at Maid Mandy*) are low, especially in a game this size.
Possibility 3 : wicked is a miller. Millers are usually told the nature of their role (mandy, can you confirm this?), so if wicked were then that's what she should have claimed. A miller is a townie and townies shouldn't lie. Thus, this possibility strikes me a small.
Possibility 4 : IC is fake claiming scum, yet knows he's unlikely to survive past Day 2 (or has some other reason why the fake claim won't back fire - perhaps he's a terrorist and plans on blowing himself up anyway?). Thus, he's taking this opportunity to kill off wicked before he goes down.
Possibility 5 : IC is telling the truth, but is insane. For a one-shot investigation role, insanity doesn't make much sense, so I'm largely discounting this possibility, but it's there.
Possibility 6 : IC is the Mafia Usurper, and wicked is the Godfather. IC hopes to survive his fake claim by actually nailing scum (if wicked turns out to be Godfather, we should immediately lynch IC).
Possibility 7 : IC is the Godfather, and is sacrificing wicked to make himself look town. This is the least likely, but most dangerous possibility, IMHO. It's actually something I would strongly consider doing in a big game were I Godfather. About the only giveaway for this one is if IC survives into deep rounds, since he's usually a fairly high priority night kill target - however, this giveaway relies on a WIFOM argument.
There are no other scenarios I can think of where IC would claim a one shot investigation and wicked would claim Jedi.
However, now we need to look at worst case scenario's. If we lynch wicked, worst case scenario is that she's telling the truth, and we loose one of our strongest power roles (and then we lynch IC). If we lynch IC, worst case scenario is that he's telling the truth, and is now (having spent his load) a vanilla townie (then we lynch wicked).
Both worst case scenario's lead to the same result (IC and wicked dead) but one of them kills off a power role.
Hence, my suggestion:
We lynch IC today (he's, at best, a vanilla townie). If he's town, we lynch wicked tomorrow. If he's the Usurper or the Godfather, we lynch wicked tomorrow. If he's a terrorist, lyncher, grudgeholder, or etc. we let wicked live. If he's random other scum, we scratch our heads and let our true cop investigate wicked.
(Note: There is actually one other possibility not in my list above which I intentionally didn't mention. Unfortunately, the possibility seems reasonable and would be a pretty powerful reason to let IC live, but not quite strong enough IMHO to outweigh the reasons to lynch him. I'm intentionally not mentioning said possibility because, if it is true and if we decided not to lynch IC, mentioning it would help the scum. If you know what this possibility is, you know why I didn't mention it, and I'd ask you not to mention it either. If you don't know what it is, don't ask.)
That said,
Unvote
Vote: IC
You know, unfortunately, this whole thing is reminding me too much of ManHunt, where I used a similar logic against IC and wound up paying for it. I hope I'm not making a mistake here.
And if Wicked is going to die anyway. We don't need another jedi to die with her. 
Unless I'm misreading her posts.
