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Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby Fruitcake on Tue May 11, 2010 2:48 pm

Things are starting to look very nervy for Merkel. The Bundesbank is pretty steamed up about all this dolling out of hard earned. Its head, Axel Weber told a German newspaper, "The purchase of government bonds poses significant stability risks and that's why I am critical of this part of the ECB's council decision even in this extraordinary situation". It seems he was pretty pissed off that the likes of Sarkosy made the announcement of the buy back decision by the EU before the ECB had spoken! The Bundesbank representatives on the ECB broke ranks and accused Trichet (Pres of ECB) of caving in to political pressure (so no change there then, this is France we are talking about after all). Their objection is to the ECB buying PIGS government bonds outright and hence effectively printing money and moving to a Quantitive Easing policy (printing moolah) which Trichet was castigating when the hated Anglo Saxons did it, further evidence that the politicians are trying to dictate monetary policy and Axel and the boys from Frankfurt ain't having it! Word is that CDU political grandees are reported as saying they have lost confidence in Merkel's ability to lead and have called for her resignation after this, her 'Greek Policy' is already proven as a failure waiting to happen. Worse still for Merkel, she has been forced to publicly abandon tax cut plans to pay for the Greek problems and as she has lost control of the upper house cannot push her planned public expenditure cuts through. I also read that the so called 'sterilised' bond sales may not even happen and was only pushed into the text to calm German fears of another inflationary spiral.

The amusing thing about all this is that the 'rescue' package was only increased in size after Obama phoned Merkel and Sarkosy to say half measures would not cut the mustard. His ulterior motive, of course, was the concerns of the effect the half arsed measures originally in place were going to have on the US banks. They jumped to attention (yes, the dollar does still carry a heavy punch, get used to it if you don't like it) and although through the judicious use of weasel words avoided reference to this strong arming have fallen into line.

The heaping of ironies upon ironies in this situation is only exceeded by the irony of the two main movers not really having an understanding of what irony really is.
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby Trephining on Tue May 11, 2010 3:34 pm

Great, another situation in which taxpayers bail out the banks on a massive scale.
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby Phatscotty on Tue May 11, 2010 6:36 pm

Fruitcake wrote:I am gven to understand that the 800 Billion is an EU package, with 720 coming from the Euro zone and 80 from EU, non Euro members. Of course, as always, they are light on details. However, added to this is a commitment by the ECB to purchase Eurozone debt in a sterilized manner plus an agreement by the major central banks to reinstitute currency swaps to help banks with liquidity difficulties in particular currencies mainly the dollar.

The purchase of PIGS bonds by the EU will be targeted at particular parts of the yield curve eg 2 year Greeks where rates hit 40% last week and there was no market in these bonds. There are a couple of other points, but I still cannot see how this will resolve the problems in the medium term. The Greeks will settle for the summer as the tourist season gets under way, but come September/Autumn, the streets will hear the rattle of riots once more. The main contributor to all this, the German people, gave Merkel a spectacular bloody nose yesterday in the Ruhr Westphalia local elections and Merkel lost control of the German upper house. The comments in the daily newspapers are starting to sound shrill as the papers push public opinion in the direction of hard working Germans bailing out idle, early retiring Greeks. The Bund / Greek 10 year bond spread has shrunk this morning, but I am holding steady, the markets take a longer term view than the Politicians and I still forecast that spread increasing again within a few months.

1 trillion, to me, shows we have officially lost our minds. Already, the next day, people are realizing it's not enough, and will patch things up for a bit, and the contagion will most likely spill through again much sooner than they had hoped.

I am doubling down. Again.

Ta!
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby army of nobunaga on Tue May 11, 2010 9:17 pm

rofl... in 2 weeks I may be buying euro after it bottoms out. You guys helping feed the paranoia will make me money. Frankly, I do not understand the euro in that I dont get why so many countries thought it was a good Idea... I never will, because it was not a great idea. But those said countries for whatever reason really believe in the EU. It will not fail. Im sorry.


euro is at a 14 or 15 month low atm.. I think it will hit its rock bottom soon... 2-3 weeks after the paranoia lifts.. then it will be time to invest
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby Phatscotty on Tue May 11, 2010 9:44 pm

army of nobunaga wrote:rofl... in 2 weeks I may be buying euro after it bottoms out. You guys helping feed the paranoia will make me money. Frankly, I do not understand the euro in that I dont get why so many countries thought it was a good Idea... I never will, because it was not a great idea. But those said countries for whatever reason really believe in the EU. It will not fail. Im sorry.


euro is at a 14 or 15 month low atm.. I think it will hit its rock bottom soon... 2-3 weeks after the paranoia lifts.. then it will be time to invest

I took a crap, and it's a 12 wiper. I ran out of TP. got any Euros?

Glad to also see we are gonna print dollars to buy euros and try to stabilize it?!?!

The fundamentals for hard assets is screaming white. Yet we are full steam ahead for non-tangibles. Will this be the worst crash in history?
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby army of nobunaga on Tue May 11, 2010 9:50 pm

lol, no it wont be... but i like you.
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby BigBallinStalin on Wed May 12, 2010 12:50 am

This is the Western world's immediate future hanging in the balance. They're doling out large amounts of cash and devaluing their currency, while East Asia steadily builds, steadily develops. They're taking one small territory at a time, taking a card, grabbing every 10 flat rate bonus and storing it, while the West is blowing their load all over the place only on the 1st round. Dumb newbs.

Should've cut off Greece like a lepered arm.
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby Fruitcake on Wed May 12, 2010 2:11 am

army of nobunaga wrote:rofl... in 2 weeks I may be buying euro after it bottoms out. You guys helping feed the paranoia will make me money. Frankly, I do not understand the euro in that I dont get why so many countries thought it was a good Idea... I never will, because it was not a great idea. But those said countries for whatever reason really believe in the EU. It will not fail. Im sorry.


euro is at a 14 or 15 month low atm.. I think it will hit its rock bottom soon... 2-3 weeks after the paranoia lifts.. then it will be time to invest


Your time scales are way out. 2-3 weeks? I would still be shorting it at that point.
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby DeltaFormation on Wed May 12, 2010 1:53 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:This is the Western world's immediate future hanging in the balance. They're doling out large amounts of cash and devaluing their currency, while East Asia steadily builds, steadily develops. They're taking one small territory at a time, taking a card, grabbing every 10 flat rate bonus and storing it, while the West is blowing their load all over the place only on the 1st round. Dumb newbs.

Should've cut off Greece like a lepered arm.


I don't really see how they could have just let Greece default... that could easily lead to the failure of most major European banks.

A bail out might not have been the best option but having the entire banking system collapse isn't better.
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby BigBallinStalin on Wed May 12, 2010 3:01 pm

DeltaFormation wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:This is the Western world's immediate future hanging in the balance. They're doling out large amounts of cash and devaluing their currency, while East Asia steadily builds, steadily develops. They're taking one small territory at a time, taking a card, grabbing every 10 flat rate bonus and storing it, while the West is blowing their load all over the place only on the 1st round. Dumb newbs.

Should've cut off Greece like a lepered arm.


I don't really see how they could have just let Greece default... that could easily lead to the failure of most major European banks.

A bail out might not have been the best option but having the entire banking system collapse isn't better.


Well, the opportunity to put Greece in their pocket was too lucrative of a deal to pass up. They'll be paying off their debt for a long time coming while being at the whim of the US and/or the more powerful European nations.

How would the entire banking system collapse? Cutting off Greece from the Eurozone would be cutting them off, I'm not suggesting buying their bonds, then screwing oneself over by kicking them out. I was talking about much earlier.
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby saxitoxin on Wed May 12, 2010 3:07 pm

EU TO UK: "WE WILL PUNISH YOU"

Britain has been warned it will be punished by Europe if the pound is hit by a financial crisis, after refusing to support a massive euro bail-out. Officials from both euro and non-euro countries said Britain should not ask for help if it runs into trouble because it had not signed up to a £378 billion support fund. "Europe's jerks once again!," declared the headline on yesterday's front page of Bild, Germany's biggest-selling newspaper.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... risis.html

Meanwhile, the dominoes continued to fall as Obama orders Spain to begin austerity measures:

http://www.prisonplanet.com/whos-runnin ... -euro.html
Pack Rat wrote:if it quacks like a duck and walk like a duck, it's still fascism

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=241668&start=200#p5349880
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby Fruitcake on Wed May 12, 2010 3:45 pm

Bund / Greek bonds spread is already back on the increase :)

Having dropped to just south of 450 points, it has already jumped back to near 600 points in 2 days. The euro has restarted its slow but steady descent in value (which has even caught me by surprise in its alacrity) and the Greeks are 6 billion short in settling up on some bonds due for repayment on May 19th. What's the betting the IMF have to stump up the difference while Euro countries bicker?

Meanwhile the German newspapers are starting to rip Merkel limb from limb. It can only be a matter of time before they twig to the fact that this whole sorry situation is as a result of the dear French having achieved their aim of turning the Eurozone into a kind of help yourself smorgasbrod using German money. Finally, the French get to tie the Germans to the yoke once and for all and the spendthift Med countries hail the French as the natural deal brokers.

As for J-P Jouyet saying that only God would help the UK after our refusal to get involved in this crazy house of cards, he forgets that we have plenty of experience in these matters (sterling crises over the decades) and will utilise all the attributes we as 'perfidious Albion' are well known for, including a deft touch of QE. It's just a shame the boys in Westminster wont stand up to the crazy laws being introduced that will see the centre of the Hedge Fund industry along with its satellites heading down to Zurich. (When I was down there 2-3 weeks back I noticed a marked increase in the number of HF operations setting up shop.)

This is going to be a great year!
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby Phatscotty on Wed May 12, 2010 4:23 pm

army of nobunaga wrote:lol, no it wont be... but i like you.


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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby Phatscotty on Wed May 12, 2010 4:24 pm

Fruitcake wrote:
army of nobunaga wrote:rofl... in 2 weeks I may be buying euro after it bottoms out. You guys helping feed the paranoia will make me money. Frankly, I do not understand the euro in that I dont get why so many countries thought it was a good Idea... I never will, because it was not a great idea. But those said countries for whatever reason really believe in the EU. It will not fail. Im sorry.


euro is at a 14 or 15 month low atm.. I think it will hit its rock bottom soon... 2-3 weeks after the paranoia lifts.. then it will be time to invest


Your time scales are way out. 2-3 weeks? I would still be shorting it at that point.

Been watching the Euro since .87. Forgive me if I do not gaga over 1.24
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby Phatscotty on Wed May 12, 2010 4:26 pm

DeltaFormation wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:This is the Western world's immediate future hanging in the balance. They're doling out large amounts of cash and devaluing their currency, while East Asia steadily builds, steadily develops. They're taking one small territory at a time, taking a card, grabbing every 10 flat rate bonus and storing it, while the West is blowing their load all over the place only on the 1st round. Dumb newbs.

Should've cut off Greece like a lepered arm.


I don't really see how they could have just let Greece default... that could easily lead to the failure of most major European banks.

A bail out might not have been the best option but having the entire banking system collapse isn't better.


Spartacus may be in order....
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby Phatscotty on Wed May 12, 2010 4:28 pm

saxitoxin wrote:EU TO UK: "WE WILL PUNISH YOU"

Britain has been warned it will be punished by Europe if the pound is hit by a financial crisis, after refusing to support a massive euro bail-out. Officials from both euro and non-euro countries said Britain should not ask for help if it runs into trouble because it had not signed up to a £378 billion support fund. "Europe's jerks once again!," declared the headline on yesterday's front page of Bild, Germany's biggest-selling newspaper.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... risis.html

Meanwhile, the dominoes continued to fall as Obama orders Spain to begin austerity measures:

http://www.prisonplanet.com/whos-runnin ... -euro.html


If this were a WW3 chess board, I would call this "the Queen coming out"
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby saxitoxin on Wed May 12, 2010 4:31 pm

Phatscotty wrote:
If this were a WW3 chess board, I would call this "the Queen coming out"


A chess board or a drag show?
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby Fruitcake on Wed May 12, 2010 5:29 pm

Phatscotty wrote:
Fruitcake wrote:
army of nobunaga wrote:rofl... in 2 weeks I may be buying euro after it bottoms out. You guys helping feed the paranoia will make me money. Frankly, I do not understand the euro in that I dont get why so many countries thought it was a good Idea... I never will, because it was not a great idea. But those said countries for whatever reason really believe in the EU. It will not fail. Im sorry.


euro is at a 14 or 15 month low atm.. I think it will hit its rock bottom soon... 2-3 weeks after the paranoia lifts.. then it will be time to invest


Your time scales are way out. 2-3 weeks? I would still be shorting it at that point.

Been watching the Euro since .87. Forgive me if I do not gaga over 1.24


I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro fall below parity within the next 12 months.
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby army of nobunaga on Wed May 12, 2010 5:32 pm

time will tell which of us is right, i believe it will hit its bottom soon, the same people that had it when it was much higher, will get over tha paranoia and buy back more soon.
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby Phatscotty on Wed May 12, 2010 5:32 pm

Fruitcake wrote:
Phatscotty wrote:
Fruitcake wrote:
army of nobunaga wrote:rofl... in 2 weeks I may be buying euro after it bottoms out. You guys helping feed the paranoia will make me money. Frankly, I do not understand the euro in that I dont get why so many countries thought it was a good Idea... I never will, because it was not a great idea. But those said countries for whatever reason really believe in the EU. It will not fail. Im sorry.


euro is at a 14 or 15 month low atm.. I think it will hit its rock bottom soon... 2-3 weeks after the paranoia lifts.. then it will be time to invest


Your time scales are way out. 2-3 weeks? I would still be shorting it at that point.

Been watching the Euro since .87. Forgive me if I do not gaga over 1.24


I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro fall below parity within the next 12 months.

You know, when I first started to look at all this stuff, I could not even imagine what it would look like when the house of cards actually did fall down and everybody saw the emperor had no clothes. May you live in interesting times
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby Phatscotty on Wed May 12, 2010 5:33 pm

why no questions about how a 140 billion dollar package became a 1 trillion dollar package by the next morning?
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby army of nobunaga on Wed May 12, 2010 5:44 pm

Phatscotty wrote:
army of nobunaga wrote:lol, no it wont be... but i like you.


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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby Phatscotty on Wed May 12, 2010 5:47 pm

army of nobunaga wrote:
Phatscotty wrote:
army of nobunaga wrote:lol, no it wont be... but i like you.


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you know my best friend in 1997 begged me to use all my savings and even take a loan out to buy gold. He - was - right. And I learned the meaning of the Iowa Farmer's saying "God hates a weenie"


Was his name Scott?
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby army of nobunaga on Wed May 12, 2010 5:49 pm

lol, he also practically MADE me buy gold coins that he got at price back then. I have 12 gold coins that I have no idea what are worth now still. I did it jsut to shut him up... I wish to god I had bought more. I talk to him about 8 times a year still, and he is big enough not to say I told you so. He says now to invest in gold and other metal mines.
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Re: Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

Postby Phatscotty on Wed May 12, 2010 5:57 pm

army of nobunaga wrote:lol, he also practically MADE me buy gold coins that he got at price back then. I have 12 gold coins that I have no idea what are worth now still. I did it jsut to shut him up... I wish to god I had bought more. I talk to him about 8 times a year still, and he is big enough not to say I told you so. He says now to invest in gold and other metal mines.


Yeah. I used to be that guy, trying to make my friends buy gold. Most of them called me an idiot and laughed. That was about the time I forced people to scream in my face "But real estate only goes up Scott, you big dummy!" followed by "Everyone knows that!!!"

After a while, I said f*ck em. They deserve it. Why would I want these kind of "doubters" to enjoy any financial benefit? The answer, I told myself, was "because they are fellow Americans". Simple as that
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