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AndyDufresne wrote:Okay, lets do some quick math:
8 Mafia in 25 player game = 32% ish...standard. Usually 1/3 as that is. So normal there.
Now we've had at least 3 Blues = 12%
7 Pro-Town (Thus far dead) = 28%
======================
72% when you add all. Assuming that out of the 8 remaining, 7 are townies, that pushes the townies up to 56%.
Now add all that up, you get 100%.
So I think the chances are there are no more 'blue' roles left, and that 7 people in this town can be trusted.
Now if need be, if the town thinks that I am indeed the last remaining Mafia, I'm willing to let myself be lynched to get the 'elephant' out of the room, if you all suspect me.
So if you lynch me today, and there is a night kill, knocks it down to 4 trustables and 1 mafia. ...
AndyDufresne wrote:AndyDufresne wrote:Okay, lets do some quick math:
8 Mafia in 25 player game = 32% ish...standard. Usually 1/3 as that is. So normal there.
Now we've had at least 3 Blues = 12%
7 Pro-Town (Thus far dead) = 28%
======================
72% when you add all. Assuming that out of the 8 remaining, 7 are townies, that pushes the townies up to 56%.
Now add all that up, you get 100%.
So I think the chances are there are no more 'blue' roles left, and that 7 people in this town can be trusted.
Now if need be, if the town thinks that I am indeed the last remaining Mafia, I'm willing to let myself be lynched to get the 'elephant' out of the room, if you all suspect me.
So if you lynch me today, and there is a night kill, knocks it down to 4 trustables and 1 mafia. ...
That should say: Knocks 5 trustables, and 1 mafia.
But upon further reflection, it may make sense that are is 1 more blue role out there. Consider this 8 in 25 = 1/3 of the game. Half of 8 is 4, which is 16%. 8+4 = 12...nearly half.
Which leaves the town with 13 -- Half -- ...to round out everything.
So perhaps we currently have 6 trustable people, 1 blue, and 1 mafia left. IF we do have 1 blue left, and the win condition is not similar to the town's, finding this person may be very difficult, but I've an idea who it may be.
Anyways, math is not my strong suit, I'm more of a word man, so forgive me if it seems fuzzy.
--Andy
AK_iceman wrote:Sully800, (Protown -- Doctor) dies mysteriously during the day.
Continue with the DAY!
AndyDufresne wrote:Now if need be, if the town thinks that I am indeed the last remaining Mafia, I'm willing to let myself be lynched to get the 'elephant' out of the room, if you all suspect me.
vgmmaster wrote:Trestain, this is the info I'm talking about.vgmmaster wrote:Nyvek wrote:vgmmaster wrote:While this may or may not be 100% accurate, I did a little studying recetnly.
With the exception of RK and Sam Jam (role names unknown), all of the other mafia member's x-men names are or were villains of the x-men group. Trestain has claimed Pyro as his name. Pyro's affiliation is with the Brotherhood of Mutants and the Freedom Force. Both groups contain x-men villains.
However, Puff's name (Magneto) doesn't make any sense. According to my philosphy, he should be a mafia member. However, he was an insane doctor. (Take that however you want). Also, Red Bull's name was never revealed.
But, as the other mafia members have x-men villains as their name, and how Trestain's name is Pyro (an x-men villian), I believe that Trestain is mafia.
VOTE: Trestain
I'm seeing inconsistencies with your theory. I'm not a big X-Man guru so I had to go online to check their bios. These are the named roles we have to analyze.
Beast – Protown Day Cop, correct
Cannonball – Protown Cop, correct
Husk – Protown Vanilla Mutant, correct
Iceman – Neutral Instigator, wrong
Magneto – ProTown Insane Doc, wrong
Marrow – Mafia Cop, correct
Psylocke – Vanilla Mafia, wrong
Pyro – Protown Psychiatrist(claimed), wrong
Thunderbird – Vanilla Mafia, wrong
Wolverine – Mafia, wrong
Is this list accurate?
Beast, Cannonball, Husk, Iceman, Psylocke, Thunderbird and Wolverine are supposed to be good guys right?
Magneto, Marrow and Pyro supposedly the bad ones?
I'm not sure what an instigator is, but I don't think he is Anti-Town. So, Iceman being innocent fits with my theory. For the others, I can prove that you're wrong.
Psylocke was a good guy for a long while, but she was evil for a short period of time. During that time, she was known as Lady Mandarin who became the Hand's assassin. Also, she was a member of the Hellfire club, a group of villians.
Wolverine normally is good. He was evil for a short period of time however. At one time he was a member of the Horsemen of the Apocolypse. During his stint there, he was the incarnation of death. Also, the HotA, was a supervillain group.
Thunderbird is a bit diffucult to place. He was a member of the Marine Corps at one time. While they aren't super villains, they were a faction of the government. And unless I'm mistaken, the government wanted to eliminate the x-men.
Magneto, was mainly evil, but a good guy for a short period of time. The time where he was an ally with the x-men was against some alien beast called the beyonder.
For Pyro, he was a villian. You say I'm wrong, but you're not correct in your statement either. Trestian claimed Psychiatrist, but he is not a confirmed Psychiatrist. Therefore, he could be lying. Moz caught my hint to that as well.
Also, my x-men theory is based off the information at wikipedia.
Andy: Warpath - Mayor
Senfive: Nightcrawler - Hider
Sully (dead): Multiple Man - Doc
Trestain: Pyro - Psychiratrist
vgmmaster wrote:Therefore,
VOTE: Trestain.
After thinking about it, I'm almost 99.9% sure that you are mafia.
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