INTO THE DEEP (COMPLETE - Mafia Win !!)

[chapcrap]

@Mets

Why do you think a no lynch is the best option? You don't feel pressure to get a scum lynched? We haven't been successful yet in lynching a scum player, if we no lynch, we are still unsuccessful...

[TX AG 90]

I also had to say 2 or 3 times that it was possible that my night action was successful in curing a poisoning victim not a regular night kill target like I initially thought before anyone actually acknowledged it.

I still don't see (based on game mechanics as I understand them) how you can cure someone from poisoning the same night they are poisoned. Can you explain this to me?

[blacky365]

@Mets

Why do you think a no lynch is the best option? You don't feel pressure to get a scum lynched? We haven't been successful yet in lynching a scum player, if we no lynch, we are still unsuccessful...

I kinda see why a no lynch may be a good option... we have had no night kills for 2 nights so in a way thats 2 wins for town, if we vote no lynch we may get more night results that help us finger the scum...
However, I am feeling really strong scum reads from those i listed earlier and need to go for that option first. I may be tempted to vote no lynch tomorrow if we end up lynching town and there is no night kill again.

[Metsfanmax]

@Mets

Why do you think a no lynch is the best option? You don't feel pressure to get a scum lynched? We haven't been successful yet in lynching a scum player, if we no lynch, we are still unsuccessful...

Of course I would like to get scum if we can, but I don't have any reads that I believe enough to act on.

I think dakky is town and you all are about to mislynch.

[strike wolf]

@Mets

Why do you think a no lynch is the best option? You don't feel pressure to get a scum lynched? We haven't been successful yet in lynching a scum player, if we no lynch, we are still unsuccessful...

Of course I would like to get scum if we can, but I don't have any reads that I believe enough to act on.

I think dakky is town and you all are about to mislynch.

So do you think Skoffin is lying then? Or do you feel there's room in the game for two investigative roles who get information from being targeted in the game?

[Pikanchion]

Or do you feel there's room in the game for two investigative roles who get information from being targeted in the game?

Two roles being able to discover what seems a fairly useless piece of information in a particular as a secondary ability... Possibly, although I currently don't see what use this ability would be, so to see two roles with it is surprising. Is this what "interwebbing" roles means?

Skoffin your role presumably does (or can—on any given night—do) something other than the ambush thing either, correct?

[Pikanchion]

*in a particular way

[Sirius Kase]

My list:dakky, metz, rage . But, I prefer to take it one day at a time. If metz dies tonight, I don't have to think about him. But, if he doesn't... Rage says he's not a liability because we have a doctor. I'm going to think about that after we see if the doctor heals metz.

So when's the deadline?

[Sirius Kase]

About no lynch, that's a lost opportunity to acquire information. At least that's the logic for a Day 1 lynch. The probability of being successful has improved. So, unless we have no clue at all, we should lynch. I know some of you don't like sleepers, but, a no lynch vote might be just the signal that wakes them up.

[Sirius Kase]

"Interwebbing" sounds like word Paul Harvey would have used. It's an old man's word.

[Tobikera]

I also had to say 2 or 3 times that it was possible that my night action was successful in curing a poisoning victim not a regular night kill target like I initially thought before anyone actually acknowledged it.

I still don't see (based on game mechanics as I understand them) how you can cure someone from poisoning the same night they are poisoned. Can you explain this to me?

I'm not sure why my name was included in this post. I have never talked about the poisonings except at the beginning in relation to misdirecting Metsfanmax..I did not say those words...perhaps they belong to Strike Wolf? However, I agree with your thoughts...you can't cure someone from poison on the night they were poisoned, unless someone like strike wolf told the mod "my action is on XXX", and XXX just happened to be poisoned....not likely....the probabilities would be 1/16 times 1/16, roughly, or one chance in 256

[Tobikera]

"Interwebbing" sounds like word Paul Harvey would have used. It's an old man's word.

Yeah, but only on Page TWO...lol

[Metsfanmax]

@Mets

Why do you think a no lynch is the best option? You don't feel pressure to get a scum lynched? We haven't been successful yet in lynching a scum player, if we no lynch, we are still unsuccessful...

Of course I would like to get scum if we can, but I don't have any reads that I believe enough to act on.

I think dakky is town and you all are about to mislynch.

So do you think Skoffin is lying then? Or do you feel there's room in the game for two investigative roles who get information from being targeted in the game?

I'm not sure yet if Skoffin is lying. It's mostly the latter: I don't think her claim is a counter-claim. I will say though that Skoffin's claim is still ill-timed, since dakky revealed the information about being able to ambush his target and learn something about them all the way back on D2.

About no lynch, that's a lost opportunity to acquire information. At least that's the logic for a Day 1 lynch. The probability of being successful has improved. So, unless we have no clue at all, we should lynch. I know some of you don't like sleepers, but, a no lynch vote might be just the signal that wakes them up.

A lot has changed since D1. In particular, we have at least some reason to believe that scum may have no standard night kill, or that they are effectively being blocked from it at this time. So there is less urgency for town here. Also, I have no clue at all.

[Metsfanmax]

I earlier said I thought there was likely a SK and a mafia team, but now I'm starting to wonder if there are multiple smaller teams or multiple individuals working alone. Either way I am 100% certain there are at least 2 non-town sides that are not 'together', and for the rest of the game I will be treating it as fact.

Now you're starting to wonder? You hypothesized this all the way back on the first page of the game:

My guess would be 4 scum players; question would be whether they will all be on the same side.

That was before any actions could have been performed, so the only information you had was your role PM. Perhaps you're on one of these scum teams?

[chapcrap]

I also had to say 2 or 3 times that it was possible that my night action was successful in curing a poisoning victim not a regular night kill target like I initially thought before anyone actually acknowledged it.

I still don't see (based on game mechanics as I understand them) how you can cure someone from poisoning the same night they are poisoned. Can you explain this to me?

I explained before that night actions can happen in any order...

@Mets

Why do you think a no lynch is the best option? You don't feel pressure to get a scum lynched? We haven't been successful yet in lynching a scum player, if we no lynch, we are still unsuccessful...

Of course I would like to get scum if we can, but I don't have any reads that I believe enough to act on.

I think dakky is town and you all are about to mislynch.

Maybe. I'm not on the vote yet, but I think I we do need a lynch. No lynch does not help town, IMO. We know that scum hasn't killed, but that does not mean that they aren't able. Presumably, they get extra actions as they go, just like town. I do not see how a no lynch helps town at all at this point.

[TX AG 90]

I also had to say 2 or 3 times that it was possible that my night action was successful in curing a poisoning victim not a regular night kill target like I initially thought before anyone actually acknowledged it.

I still don't see (based on game mechanics as I understand them) how you can cure someone from poisoning the same night they are poisoned. Can you explain this to me?

I'm not sure why my name was included in this post. I have never talked about the poisonings except at the beginning in relation to misdirecting Metsfanmax..I did not say those words...perhaps they belong to Strike Wolf? However, I agree with your thoughts...you can't cure someone from poison on the night they were poisoned, unless someone like strike wolf told the mod "my action is on XXX", and XXX just happened to be poisoned....not likely....the probabilities would be 1/16 times 1/16, roughly, or one chance in 256

I was cutting and pasting and missed your name in the delete.

[TX AG 90]

"Interwebbing" sounds like word Paul Harvey would have used. It's an old man's word.

Yeah, but only on Page TWO...lol

Now, for the rest of the story...

[TX AG 90]

I also had to say 2 or 3 times that it was possible that my night action was successful in curing a poisoning victim not a regular night kill target like I initially thought before anyone actually acknowledged it.

I still don't see (based on game mechanics as I understand them) how you can cure someone from poisoning the same night they are poisoned. Can you explain this to me?

I explained before that night actions can happen in any order...

That still doesn't make sense. Did SW say "I'm going to heal player XYZ in case they get poisoned tonight" and then get lucky? Wouldn't he have protected them from getting poisoned instead?

Why am I the only one baffled by this?

[Skoffin]

That still doesn't make sense. Did SW say "I'm going to heal player XYZ in case they get poisoned tonight" and then get lucky? Wouldn't he have protected them from getting poisoned instead?

Why am I the only one baffled by this?

Yes, it's just you. Mods can select what order they have night actions operate for their game. It's fairly likely that raz could have chosen that POISON SEQUENCE occurs first, and DOCTOR SEQUENCE occurs second. That would mean player X was poisoned and then unpoisoned by strike immediately after. It's a perfectly sensible explanation.

I still have some major concerns about Strike Wolfs claim that he misread his role TWICE and then claimed to be a Doctor during the whole jfm debacle.

Not sure I'd fully blame strike for that, as he is not alone in missing info from his role. As mentioned before I had issues with understanding my role, and I think part of the issue for people may just be the particular way raz has worded things?


@ Pika

I earlier said I thought there was likely a SK and a mafia team, but now I'm starting to wonder if there are multiple smaller teams or multiple individuals working alone. Either way I am 100% certain there are at least 2 non-town sides that are not 'together', and for the rest of the game I will be treating it as fact.

Now you're starting to wonder? You hypothesized this all the way back on the first page of the game:

My guess would be 4 scum players; question would be whether they will all be on the same side.

That was before any actions could have been performed, so the only information you had was your role PM. Perhaps you're on one of these scum teams?

If you think about it you would realise that those two posts actually state the same thing; there is no contradiction.
My guess is based on setup and role. I personally would have made a mafia and SK for this particular theme.

[chapcrap]

He could have more uses than simply healing. Docs usually protect people from getting night killed. Not sure if SW has straight doc abilities or not, but that's a pretty normal thing. My guess is that he targeted himself because he didn't have anyone else that deserved protection yet, but he didn't want to say. Coming back to heal retroactively is the part that more unusual in a typical doc role.

Anyway, that's how many night kills are prevented because of a doc targeting the same person as the scum.

Fp'd

[TX AG 90]

That still doesn't make sense. Did SW say "I'm going to heal player XYZ in case they get poisoned tonight" and then get lucky? Wouldn't he have protected them from getting poisoned instead?

Why am I the only one baffled by this?

Yes, it's just you. Mods can select what order they have night actions operate for their game. It's fairly likely that raz could have chosen that POISON SEQUENCE occurs first, and DOCTOR SEQUENCE occurs second. That would mean player X was poisoned and then unpoisoned by strike immediately after. It's a perfectly sensible explanation.

He could have more uses than simply healing. Docs usually protect people from getting night killed. Not sure if SW has straight doc abilities or not, but that's a pretty normal thing. My guess is that he targeted himself because he didn't have anyone else that deserved protection yet, but he didn't want to say. Coming back to heal retroactively is the part that more unusual in a typical doc role.

Anyway, that's how many night kills are prevented because of a doc targeting the same person as the scum.

But aren't protecting and healing 2 separate actions? Wouldn't it make more sense to say, I am protecting XYZ (thereby protecting them from nightkill AND poisoning) than saying I am going to heal XYZ N1 in the off chance they get poisoned.

I'm still confused...

[ZaBeast]

I'll need more time to make up my mind on dakky. Since he's the only viable lynch candidate at this point I'll unvote. If I get to vote again it will be dakky, as I don't want to go through another speedlynch. Answers I'd like to get from dakky and/or skoffin before I can make up my mind.
1-when you're ambushed for the night, can you ambush everyone who visits you or at most 1 person?
2-@skoff

First you supported me and said I know something which only town can know

what was that info and what made you change your mind?

I will say though that we seem to have 2 poisoners, it is possible some roles could be fairly similar.

@sirius if you believe we have a sleeper cell, why vote? If no one's the bad guy atm, there's no point in trying to lynch.
@mets I can buy your no lynch vote, I just don't like the timing. We didn't have a deadline back then (though I think raz announced he'd put one up shortly) so there was still time to discuss
@tx if strike has healing+protection power he applies the whole package to his target. I'd be very surprised if he has to target 2 ppl

[Skoffin]

@TX - it's just a doctor ability. Healing/protecting would be the same action.

@Strike - I think I only ambust people who attack me. If multile people attacked me at once then I should be able to see all of them.
The info was just the way he talked about his role having multiple layers/functions, it was similar to my own and figured town would have people like that. I didn't pay much attention to the day 1 OP
I changed my mind because I realised that initial assessment of mine didn't make sense, add to that dakky has a function like mine (why give town the same thing twice?) and dakky's overral bad play and unhelpfulness.

[Pikanchion]

However, I agree with [TX AG 90's] thoughts...you can't cure someone from poison on the night they were poisoned, unless someone like strike wolf told the mod "my action is on XXX", and XXX just happened to be poisoned....not likely....the probabilities would be 1/16 times 1/16, roughly, or one chance in 256

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of probability, for the sake of argument I will use your model: the chance of any given player being poisoned and the Doctor targeting that player would indeed be ~1/256; the chance of any player—without regard for who that player is—being poisoned and the Doctor healing them, is the sum of the chances of that happening for each player individually, so ~1/16.

—

@ Pika ;)

Oh wow, I'm convinced, time to lynch dakky21 I guess... If this ability is your entire role (excepting bonus ability) I believe it is a counter-claim, if it isn't then I do not.

[Tobikera]

However, I agree with [TX AG 90's] thoughts...you can't cure someone from poison on the night they were poisoned, unless someone like strike wolf told the mod "my action is on XXX", and XXX just happened to be poisoned....not likely....the probabilities would be 1/16 times 1/16, roughly, or one chance in 256

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of probability, for the sake of argument I will use your model: the chance of any given player being poisoned and the Doctor targeting that player would indeed be ~1/256; the chance of any player—without regard for who that player is—being poisoned and the Doctor healing them, is the sum of the chances of that happening for each player individually, so ~1/16.

I have no fundamental misunderstanding of probability. It seems you agreed with me and then disagreed with yourself. We have two independent events, both occurring on the same night. In this case you use the Product Rule and the answer is 1 chance in 256. You agreed with me on this in your first sentence above. The Addition Rule only comes into play when you have any one of two or more mutually exclusive events on the same night. So, the probability of either a poisoning or a healing (one event, not two) is 1 chance in 8 (not 1 chance in 16 as you state, which is the probability for each player, as you state).