INTO THE DEEP (COMPLETE - Mafia Win !!)

[blacky365]

*People suspect tobi*

*Tobi puts them on his scum list.*

*later. Tobi: Well these people voting me are all on my scum list...

[Ragian]

I don't get why chap's plan could work...

[Tobikera]

I don't get why chap's plan could work...

As I understand it, he has divided the remaining players in two groups. One group, let's call it Group A, has what he considers all townies in it except for possibly 1 player. The other group, Group B, has what he considers mostly scum or third parties, with maybe 1-2 townies in it. Lynching someone agreed upon from Group B has a better chance of nailing a scumball than lynching someone from Group A. It's really no different from what we used to do in TNC, where we separated the sheep from the goats and then lynched an agreed upon goat. Of course, all this is based on chap's view of the world, and your mileage may vary....FOB, El Segundo, CA. Pardon any misinterpretations.

[blacky365]

I don't get why chap's plan could work...

As I understand it, he has divided the remaining players in two groups. One group, let's call it Group A, has what he considers all townies in it except for possibly 1 player. The other group, Group B, has what he considers mostly scum or third parties, with maybe 1-2 townies in it. Lynching someone agreed upon from Group B has a better chance of nailing a scumball than lynching someone from Group A. It's really no different from what we used to do in TNC, where we separated the sheep from the goats and then lynched an agreed upon goat. Of course, all this is based on chap's view of the world, and your mileage may vary....FOB, El Segundo, CA. Pardon any misinterpretations.

I understand this tactic, but why would anyone from group B agree to this? I would just be signing my own death certificate.
But the biggest problem he has here is that he doesn’t even have the support of group a... so it’s a non starter!

[TX AG 90]

I don't get why chap's plan could work...

As I understand it, he has divided the remaining players in two groups. One group, let's call it Group A, has what he considers all townies in it except for possibly 1 player. The other group, Group B, has what he considers mostly scum or third parties, with maybe 1-2 townies in it. Lynching someone agreed upon from Group B has a better chance of nailing a scumball than lynching someone from Group A. It's really no different from what we used to do in TNC, where we separated the sheep from the goats and then lynched an agreed upon goat. Of course, all this is based on chap's view of the world, and your mileage may vary....FOB, El Segundo, CA. Pardon any misinterpretations.

I understand this tactic, but why would anyone from group B agree to this? I would just be signing my own death certificate.
But the biggest problem he has here is that he doesn’t even have the support of group a... so it’s a non starter!

I think he was hoping for a consensus among the 6.

Based on Chap's perspective (if true), he knows 4/5 are town and he invited me (also town, but no proof).

That leaves 6 in the other Group. Assuming 4 Scum, or 4 scum and 1 3rd party, the 2nd group would have 3/6 or 4/6 scum as opposed to 1/6. He's just playing the probability of getting a correct lynch. Even if you are a townie in Group B (because chap didn't transport you, so he doesn't have a read on you yet) and you believe Chap, you should still like the plan and lynch from the 2nd group.

If you don't believe chap, you might as well lynch him. I see it as a binary decision at this point on whether to lynch from Group B or lynch Chap (I'm voting Group B).

After that, the decision breaks down into 6 choices, which we may have a hard time deciding on.

I still think if you are town and are choosing to vote for someone in Group A other than Chap, you have a high probability of being scum. Either believe him and advocate for someone from Group B or Vote Chap if you don't. I don't see how a townie could make any other vote right now.

[TX AG 90]

I don't get why chap's plan could work...

As I understand it, he has divided the remaining players in two groups. One group, let's call it Group A, has what he considers all townies in it except for possibly 1 player. The other group, Group B, has what he considers mostly scum or third parties, with maybe 1-2 townies in it. Lynching someone agreed upon from Group B has a better chance of nailing a scumball than lynching someone from Group A. It's really no different from what we used to do in TNC, where we separated the sheep from the goats and then lynched an agreed upon goat. Of course, all this is based on chap's view of the world, and your mileage may vary....FOB, El Segundo, CA. Pardon any misinterpretations.

I understand this tactic, but why would anyone from group B agree to this? I would just be signing my own death certificate.
But the biggest problem he has here is that he doesn’t even have the support of group a... so it’s a non starter!

I think he was hoping for a consensus among the 6.

Based on Chap's perspective (if true), he knows 4/5 are town and he invited me (also town, but no proof).

That leaves 6 in the other Group. Assuming 4 Scum, or 4 scum and 1 3rd party, the 2nd group would have 3/6 or 4/6 scum as opposed to 1/6. He's just playing the probability of getting a correct lynch. Even if you are a townie in Group B (because chap didn't transport you, so he doesn't have a read on you yet) and you believe Chap, you should still like the plan and lynch from the 2nd group.

If you don't believe chap, you might as well lynch him. I see it as a binary decision at this point on whether to lynch from Group B or lynch Chap (I'm voting Group B).

After that, the decision breaks down into 6 choices, which we may have a hard time deciding on.

I still think if you are town and are choosing to vote for someone in Group A other than Chap, you have a high probability of being scum. Either believe him and advocate for someone from Group B or Vote Chap if you don't. I don't see how a townie could make any other vote right now.

As an add-on, I don't care whether Tobi is scum or not. As long as Chap is town, it still makes sense to let Tobi live and kill off someone from Group B. If Tobi is scum, he will get his eventually after the Group B house has been cleaned.

[TX AG 90]

OK,

So it seems Pika, Beast, skoffin, blacky and BJ are trying to break up Group A - that elevates all of them in my scum list.

By my own logic, I cannot vote for skoffin, no matter how scummy she may seem right now (she's in Group A)
I don't get a scum read on Beast
I think BJ deserves 1 more Day based on aage's report

That leaves blacky and pika. I had blacky pegged as likely scum at the beginning of the day, but since we are trying to build a consensus and since Tobi has voted for pika, I'll switch my vote again:

Unvote Sirius Kase Vote pikanchion

[TX AG 90]

I don't get why chap's plan could work...

I understand this tactic, but why would anyone from group B agree to this? I would just be signing my own death certificate.
But the biggest problem he has here is that he doesn’t even have the support of group a... so it’s a non starter!

But if you are town (and believe chap is also), you won't mind being a possible lynch if it ultimately gives town a win. Your job in Group B is to advocate for yourself an point to the Group B member you feel is scummiest. If you aren't willing to do that, you probably are scum. I see no other way to look at it.

If you don't believe chap, you vote to lynch him. Voting anybody else in Group B is either a mistake or a scum move.

Chap's given us the roadmap for a win or has pulled off a masterful scum move. Either way, I don't see how town can vote for anybody else in Group A other than chap. If someone can find flaw in my logic, please ppoint it out to me. But it has to start with the premise that Chap is lying or telling the truth; I don't see any other way.

[TX AG 90]

I don't get why chap's plan could work...

I understand this tactic, but why would anyone from group B agree to this? I would just be signing my own death certificate.
But the biggest problem he has here is that he doesn’t even have the support of group a... so it’s a non starter!

But if you are town (and believe chap is also), you won't mind being a possible lynch if it ultimately gives town a win. Your job in Group B is to advocate for yourself an point to the Group B member you feel is scummiest. If you aren't willing to do that, you probably are scum. I see no other way to look at it.

If you don't believe chap, you vote to lynch him. Voting anybody else in Group B is either a mistake or a scum move.

Chap's given us the roadmap for a win or has pulled off a masterful scum move. Either way, I don't see how town can vote for anybody else in Group A other than chap. If someone can find flaw in my logic, please ppoint it out to me. But it has to start with the premise that Chap is lying or telling the truth; I don't see any other way.

EBMOP

I meant to say "Voting anybody else in Group A is either a mistake or a scum move."

[ZaBeast]

As an add-on, I don't care whether Tobi is scum or not. As long as Chap is town, it still makes sense to let Tobi live and kill off someone from Group B. If Tobi is scum, he will get his eventually after the Group B house has been cleaned.

I don't know for sure chap isn't scum, but even if he was town, he can't use his special ability again (it's a 1-time use thing), so there's not going to be further "cleaning of the group B house" by chap. Anyways, I know tobi has to be lying based on BuJ claiming he's been redirected and you claiming you haven't so I don't see why I should vote someone I'm not sure is scum instead of someone I know is.
That being said, pika, you claim to have received BuJ night action result for that night with the wiretapping, do you agree the only possible conclusion is that the result can't apply to mets?

[Skoffin]

If someone can find flaw in my logic, please ppoint it out to me. But it has to start with the premise that Chap is lying or telling the truth; I don't see any other way.

Well if you insist.

IF chap is telling the truth; Groups are 1 scum among ragoo, myself, strike and tobi and chap.
Group B is Blacky, beast, pika, buj, tx and serius.

From CHAPS perspective, it makes sense to lynch from Group B due to probability alone. However, from MY perspective if I believe chap then it makes sense to lynch from Group B as by default it would mean I believe chap, I know myself not to be scum, and I also believe strike to be town. That leaves ONLY ragoo and tobi to pick from. For me lynching from group A gives a 1/2 chance of nailing scum, while group B has an unknown number of scum. Presumably it would be 3/6 scum. Now this essentially gives us the same odds either way, but then you factor in the side benefits.

Lynching from Group B randomly today means we do the same thing tomorrow. And as pointed out, Chap can't use his find scum ability a second time which was the whole big point of his "plan" to begin with.

Lynching from Group A however means two results for tomorrow:
IF we lynch the scum, we have FOUR townies known for tomorrow who can be trusted to sort this game out.
IF we lynch incorrectly, then we guarantee nailing the other scum.

Therefore, from my perspective, it only makes sense to lynch from Group A. And realistically ragoo and tobi should feel the same.

Personally I'm leaning Ragoo, but no one is going to go for that anyway and we have little time. Lynching Tobi however puts odds at 1/2 still AND he is from the redirector clusterfuck wherein one must be scum. Lynching Tobi tells us about ragoo and about the other redirectors.


So yes, there is more than the options of "lynch chap or lynch group B".

[chapcrap]

Ragian, I think they have summed me up pretty well.

As far as SK vs Pika, I am not fussed about which to vote for. They are the two scummiest from group B, IMO. SK hasn't spoken much at all lately. BuJ should definitely not be lynched, IMO. If the healers want to heal they can, but if they think he's scum, the night will kill him anyway, so lynching there makes no sense.

Skoffin, while you may view it as a 1/2 chance to lynch from group A, the majority of people cannot see it that way. At best, it's 1/3 if they think sw is town. I do think that. But between Ragian, you, and Tobi, I'm really unsure. I have a ranking for scumminess that I laid out earlier, but they truth is, I cannot be sure and neither can others. So, group B is better as far as ratios go. And, if you really believe BuJ is town, which I think you said before, then that makes the group B ratio even better for a scum lynch. And even better if a townie is accidentally lynched today. To me, with the information I have, a group B lynch makes the most sense.

I would really like to have strike wolf's input and vote on someone, because, to me, he's the towniest of us all. I think the lynch should be Pika or SK, but I'll follow whatever sw wants to do if he's on board.

[BuJaber]

I don't know why exactly but if I had to pick between Tobi and TX for who is lying I would pick TX. I trust his claim less than Tobi's. (Though as mentioned many times, claim alone doesn't tell us alignment, particularly with misdirection abilities).

Though I'm one of the people who thinks chap is scum so for me the preferred order ia chap -> TX -> Tobi. I mean we probably don't have more than 2 guesses, but I think we will find at least 1 and probably 2 scum within chap and TX.

That said I understand that from other people's perspective they may want to go for the guaranteed 33% chance of shooting within the redirector claims. I'm willing to compromise there but in that scenario, I'd lynch TX not Tobi, if we're not lynching chap today.

[blacky365]

As I said before, I do like the general idea of divide and conquer.
However, I do not believe it will work here, simply because we are so close to LYLO.

If we lynch town today and loose a town tonight then its scums game.
Dont forget, we had two deaths last night so what is to stop this from happening again?

Currently 11 alive, if we loose two we are at 9... if we are presuming there are 4 scum then well played scum


So, im convinced that skoff is scum, shes a clear number 1 for me.
However, no one else seems interested so UNVOTE

I am most tempted to vote Tobi, but not sure if he is aware that he is at L-2... Tobi, do you have anything to add?

[Skoffin]

Chap, you can see it your way but I'm not going to stop seeing it from my perspective. Your plan is terrible and puts us at risk of losing if we guess wrong. You are overrelying on your role to save the day and I am not going to use statistics alone to decide how to vote and everyones actual play etc needs to be considered.

Buj - What were your reasons for trusting tx less than Tobi? and why chap the most scum? I've been reading him as over-confident in their role townie thus far.

To be clear I am willing to vote anyone so long as there is a real justification for it, but I will not vote based on "follow chaps gambit"
Everyone needs to get their shit sorted and give their views as we are running out of time.

However, Tobi did mention something interesting regarding the possibility of one of our dead going for food. Someone better at analying scnes for clues can look at that.

[Pikanchion]

Skoffin, while you may view it as a 1/2 chance to lynch from group A, the majority of people cannot see it that way. At best, it's 1/3 if they think sw is town. I do think that. But between Ragian, you, and Tobi, I'm really unsure. I have a ranking for scumminess that I laid out earlier, but they truth is, I cannot be sure and neither can others. So, group B is better as far as ratios go. And, if you really believe BuJ is town, which I think you said before, then that makes the group B ratio even better for a scum lynch. And even better if a townie is accidentally lynched today. To me, with the information I have, a group B lynch makes the most sense.

Even if you are telling the truth it would be at worst 2 scum in each group from the information you claim to have, given you know one of the four from last night are scum and you cannot know if TX AG 90 is Town. Why are you so sure two players whose claims are nearly identical are both town, and further, if you are so sure about strike wolf then you actually have an additional group for which the likelihood is of lynching scum is 1/3; Ragian, Skoffin, and Tobikera.

[Skoffin]

There's too much goddamn math in this game.

Oh hey ragian what are your opinions

[BuJaber]

I think the main reason I don't trust TX is the "You can't prove I'm scum" thing. He's very confident about that. Yet he claims to be a redirector. Now let's break that down a little bit.

If he is town and redirector, why is he so easily willing to accept other redirectors? Why are we just now hearing about in day 4. There's no justification, no matter what he claims. No reasonable justification from an uninformed townie. Tobi claimed on day 1 if I recall, or like early day 2, means TX should have been pushing Tobi quite aggressively at some point, before we all had proof of how similar roles can be and how name of role might not be indicative of its action. So that option is out.

If he is scum and redirector, why would he still keep this confidence up, particularly when he knows of the existence of redirectors, and thus any investigative we may have might not get accurate results anyway. So there is no way to justifiably clear him at night, and definitely not with 100% confidence.

If he is town and not redirector, I think we all know why I shouldn't even be discussing this. If it is good luck town we're all dead men (and women) walking waiting for death to engulf us.

So that leaves scum and not redirector, which is what I believe is the most likely option. I think he has some sort of protective, or maybe something like godfather. Either he is baiting people to target him because he knows he can't be targetted, or he's bluffing. He might even be the active poisoner and claiming redirector to add to the confusion. Regardless of what he is exactly, I think the most reasonable assumption based on his play and the information we have is that he is scum and not redirector/misdirector.

Chap I outlined my reasons for wanting to lynch him. He wants confirmed town dead, is casting doubt on people's claims, explaining everything in the game based on his own version of events, and trying to take control of the remaining lynches.

And nobody died because of food. Mets was poisoned and didn't get healed. Aage got night killed. I don't see why aage would have went for food last night, and I can't imagine scum shooting mets in a night where he might be targetted by doc.

[ZaBeast]

BuJ, TX claimed healer, not redirector. He said he low-key tried to discredit strike on D3 but I hadn't had time to look back. I'm the one who claimed redirector, and the reason I waited to claim is because there's no point counterclaiming a role that someone else had confirmed. I had tobi on my scum list basically since then though, and his claim is the main reason I targeted him on N3

Pika you haven't answered yet: do you agree with BuJ the result he got on N2 can't apply to mets?

About whether Aage went for food and died last night: it's possible, I thought of that possibility, but I don't see how discussing it would help (and also how we'd know). If scum don't have a NK, good for us, but we should still lynch anyways, regardless if we're at LYLO or close to it.

[Pikanchion]

Pika you haven't answered yet: do you agree with BuJ the result he got on N2 can't apply to mets?

The result I saw definitely does not apply to Metsfanmax's role.

[BuJaber]

BuJ, TX claimed healer, not redirector. He said he low-key tried to discredit strike on D3 but I hadn't had time to look back. I'm the one who claimed redirector, and the reason I waited to claim is because there's no point counterclaiming a role that someone else had confirmed. I had tobi on my scum list basically since then though, and his claim is the main reason I targeted him on N3

Pika you haven't answered yet: do you agree with BuJ the result he got on N2 can't apply to mets?

About whether Aage went for food and died last night: it's possible, I thought of that possibility, but I don't see how discussing it would help (and also how we'd know). If scum don't have a NK, good for us, but we should still lynch anyways, regardless if we're at LYLO or close to it.

Who's the 3rd redirector then?
Like I'm not crazy right? Some third person also claimed some sort of redirection ability. I was pretty sure it was TX.

[Skoffin]

looooool you are not crazy Buj, and f*ck me I got confused too. I had to double check pika's handy list of actions n shit and I believe tobi/Beast/chap are essentially our "redirector" type roles.

[ZaBeast]

chap claimed busdriver indeed

And with pika's answer it's pretty clear to me the very likely explanation is tobi is lying (there is always the possibility mets was bussed and that TX is lying about not being redirected but that's way too unlikely to give it any weight imo)

[Skoffin]

CVan you explain what you and pika were talking about there? In a way a dumb person can understand (I'm the dumb here)

[ZaBeast]

BuJ said he was redirected because the result he got couldn't come from mets. I just asked pika to confirm since he claimed to have received BuJ's result through wiretapping Aage