strike wolf wrote:*People suspect tobi*
*Tobi puts them on his scum list.*
*later. Tobi: Well these people voting me are all on my scum list...

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strike wolf wrote:*People suspect tobi*
*Tobi puts them on his scum list.*
*later. Tobi: Well these people voting me are all on my scum list...
Ragian wrote:I don't get why chap's plan could work...
Tobikera wrote:Ragian wrote:I don't get why chap's plan could work...
As I understand it, he has divided the remaining players in two groups. One group, let's call it Group A, has what he considers all townies in it except for possibly 1 player. The other group, Group B, has what he considers mostly scum or third parties, with maybe 1-2 townies in it. Lynching someone agreed upon from Group B has a better chance of nailing a scumball than lynching someone from Group A. It's really no different from what we used to do in TNC, where we separated the sheep from the goats and then lynched an agreed upon goat. Of course, all this is based on chap's view of the world, and your mileage may vary....FOB, El Segundo, CA. Pardon any misinterpretations.
blacky365 wrote:Tobikera wrote:Ragian wrote:I don't get why chap's plan could work...
As I understand it, he has divided the remaining players in two groups. One group, let's call it Group A, has what he considers all townies in it except for possibly 1 player. The other group, Group B, has what he considers mostly scum or third parties, with maybe 1-2 townies in it. Lynching someone agreed upon from Group B has a better chance of nailing a scumball than lynching someone from Group A. It's really no different from what we used to do in TNC, where we separated the sheep from the goats and then lynched an agreed upon goat. Of course, all this is based on chap's view of the world, and your mileage may vary....FOB, El Segundo, CA. Pardon any misinterpretations.
I understand this tactic, but why would anyone from group B agree to this? I would just be signing my own death certificate.
But the biggest problem he has here is that he doesnāt even have the support of group a... so itās a non starter!
TX AG 90 wrote:blacky365 wrote:Tobikera wrote:Ragian wrote:I don't get why chap's plan could work...
As I understand it, he has divided the remaining players in two groups. One group, let's call it Group A, has what he considers all townies in it except for possibly 1 player. The other group, Group B, has what he considers mostly scum or third parties, with maybe 1-2 townies in it. Lynching someone agreed upon from Group B has a better chance of nailing a scumball than lynching someone from Group A. It's really no different from what we used to do in TNC, where we separated the sheep from the goats and then lynched an agreed upon goat. Of course, all this is based on chap's view of the world, and your mileage may vary....FOB, El Segundo, CA. Pardon any misinterpretations.
I understand this tactic, but why would anyone from group B agree to this? I would just be signing my own death certificate.
But the biggest problem he has here is that he doesnāt even have the support of group a... so itās a non starter!
I think he was hoping for a consensus among the 6.
Based on Chap's perspective (if true), he knows 4/5 are town and he invited me (also town, but no proof).
That leaves 6 in the other Group. Assuming 4 Scum, or 4 scum and 1 3rd party, the 2nd group would have 3/6 or 4/6 scum as opposed to 1/6. He's just playing the probability of getting a correct lynch. Even if you are a townie in Group B (because chap didn't transport you, so he doesn't have a read on you yet) and you believe Chap, you should still like the plan and lynch from the 2nd group.
If you don't believe chap, you might as well lynch him. I see it as a binary decision at this point on whether to lynch from Group B or lynch Chap (I'm voting Group B).
After that, the decision breaks down into 6 choices, which we may have a hard time deciding on.
I still think if you are town and are choosing to vote for someone in Group A other than Chap, you have a high probability of being scum. Either believe him and advocate for someone from Group B or Vote Chap if you don't. I don't see how a townie could make any other vote right now.
blacky365 wrote:Tobikera wrote:Ragian wrote:I don't get why chap's plan could work...
I understand this tactic, but why would anyone from group B agree to this? I would just be signing my own death certificate.
But the biggest problem he has here is that he doesnāt even have the support of group a... so itās a non starter!
TX AG 90 wrote:blacky365 wrote:Tobikera wrote:Ragian wrote:I don't get why chap's plan could work...
I understand this tactic, but why would anyone from group B agree to this? I would just be signing my own death certificate.
But the biggest problem he has here is that he doesnāt even have the support of group a... so itās a non starter!
But if you are town (and believe chap is also), you won't mind being a possible lynch if it ultimately gives town a win. Your job in Group B is to advocate for yourself an point to the Group B member you feel is scummiest. If you aren't willing to do that, you probably are scum. I see no other way to look at it.
If you don't believe chap, you vote to lynch him. Voting anybody else in Group B is either a mistake or a scum move.
Chap's given us the roadmap for a win or has pulled off a masterful scum move. Either way, I don't see how town can vote for anybody else in Group A other than chap. If someone can find flaw in my logic, please ppoint it out to me. But it has to start with the premise that Chap is lying or telling the truth; I don't see any other way.
TX AG 90 wrote:As an add-on, I don't care whether Tobi is scum or not. As long as Chap is town, it still makes sense to let Tobi live and kill off someone from Group B. If Tobi is scum, he will get his eventually after the Group B house has been cleaned.
TX AG 90 wrote: If someone can find flaw in my logic, please ppoint it out to me. But it has to start with the premise that Chap is lying or telling the truth; I don't see any other way.
chapcrap wrote:Skoffin, while you may view it as a 1/2 chance to lynch from group A, the majority of people cannot see it that way. At best, it's 1/3 if they think sw is town. I do think that. But between Ragian, you, and Tobi, I'm really unsure. I have a ranking for scumminess that I laid out earlier, but they truth is, I cannot be sure and neither can others. So, group B is better as far as ratios go. And, if you really believe BuJ is town, which I think you said before, then that makes the group B ratio even better for a scum lynch. And even better if a townie is accidentally lynched today. To me, with the information I have, a group B lynch makes the most sense.
ZaBeast wrote:Pika you haven't answered yet: do you agree with BuJ the result he got on N2 can't apply to mets?
ZaBeast wrote:BuJ, TX claimed healer, not redirector. He said he low-key tried to discredit strike on D3 but I hadn't had time to look back. I'm the one who claimed redirector, and the reason I waited to claim is because there's no point counterclaiming a role that someone else had confirmed. I had tobi on my scum list basically since then though, and his claim is the main reason I targeted him on N3
Pika you haven't answered yet: do you agree with BuJ the result he got on N2 can't apply to mets?
About whether Aage went for food and died last night: it's possible, I thought of that possibility, but I don't see how discussing it would help (and also how we'd know). If scum don't have a NK, good for us, but we should still lynch anyways, regardless if we're at LYLO or close to it.
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