INTO THE DEEP (COMPLETE - Mafia Win !!)

[Skoffin]

So who should we lynch and why pika?

We are literally going to run out of time before we reach a consensus at this rate.

[Ragian]

So you were going to claim regardless of Mets outing you? I probably wouldn't if I were you. Why would you?

I've said as much earlier. I came to the realisation that my role isn't that beneficial to town unclaimed. At first, I thought, "Yes, I will get scum to visit me and kill them -mwaha!!" But with SW being able to heal whoever regardless of alignment makes me impotent in that regard. Moreover, I got the feeling that most people would want the passive poisoner to claim.

Also, what do you mean "the voting is still suspicious to me"?

I haven't really read Skoffin as anything but third party for most of the game. This latest bit makes third party extremely unlikely. Right now it's pretty simple: Dakky flips scum she's most likely town. Dakky flips town, she's most likely scum. It's difficult to see scum doing this just to lynch Dakky when he's already being doubted so I tend to believe her and agree that her role is too similar to Dakkys.

vote Dakky

I always get iffy with this kind of posting because it comes off (to me) as someone setting up two consecutive lynches. If we lynch dakky D3 and he flips town, then we must lynch skoffin D4. Could be a scum move to get two townies off the block.

So who should we lynch and why pika?

We should lynch Pika because he jumped on my vote without hesitation and without demanding any explanation. It raised a red flag with me.

vote Pika

[Skoffin]

If I vote pika today will you vote dakky tomorrow comrade?

[ZaBeast]

Apologies... I thought I had cleared this up!
Originally I thought my target had poisoned me so I did not want to reveal who it was, however since jfm claimed (in a roundabout way) that he was my attacker, I reread the pm from the mod and the wording was that on my way to my target I was bumped into and I felt a pain in my side... so my target was not my poisoner but probably jfm or someone else.

---

@Blacky, did you bump into something and then get a message that something didn't feel good or something similar? (Because I did.)

FP'ed by TX

No, I dont think i bumped in to anything, i was swimming and i felt a pain on my side

Which one is it?

[Ragian]

Do you think pika is scum, lady in red font?

FP'ed by ZaBeast with a decent find.

[ZaBeast]

Or maybe the point is someone bumped into you but you didn't bump into anybody?

[TX AG 90]

Apologies... I thought I had cleared this up!
Originally I thought my target had poisoned me so I did not want to reveal who it was, however since jfm claimed (in a roundabout way) that he was my attacker, I reread the pm from the mod and the wording was that on my way to my target I was bumped into and I felt a pain in my side... so my target was not my poisoner but probably jfm or someone else.

---

@Blacky, did you bump into something and then get a message that something didn't feel good or something similar? (Because I did.)

FP'ed by TX

No, I dont think i bumped in to anything, i was swimming and i felt a pain on my side

Which one is it?

Blacky,

Exact wording would be helpful here. Can you copy and paste?

[Sirius Kase]

I will say though that we seem to have 2 poisoners, it is possible some roles could be fairly similar.

@sirius if you believe we have a sleeper cell, why vote? If no one's the bad guy atm, there's no point in trying to lynch.

I having been trying to propose a relationship between possible sleepers and no lynch. I've been treating them as separate issues. As already discussed, in all likelihood, they aren't sleeping, their attempts might be blocked. There is much bumping during the night. About the lynch, I studied some discussions about Day 1. It's not day 1 anymore, but the arguments about lost opportunity might still be applicable. If it's a total crap shoot, then we shouldn't lynch, but it's not. We have more information than we did on Day 1, and less people, which improves the odds of future lynches.

Maybe we can connect these ideas. Dakky's, claim to be commuting fits neatly with being a sleeper. He's provided reasons for being inactive during the night.

[chapcrap]

However, I agree with [TX AG 90's] thoughts...you can't cure someone from poison on the night they were poisoned, unless someone like strike wolf told the mod "my action is on XXX", and XXX just happened to be poisoned....not likely....the probabilities would be 1/16 times 1/16, roughly, or one chance in 256

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of probability, for the sake of argument I will use your model: the chance of any given player being poisoned and the Doctor targeting that player would indeed be ~1/256; the chance of any player—without regard for who that player is—being poisoned and the Doctor healing them, is the sum of the chances of that happening for each player individually, so ~1/16.

I have no fundamental misunderstanding of probability. It seems you agreed with me and then disagreed with yourself. We have two independent events, both occurring on the same night. In this case you use the Product Rule and the answer is 1 chance in 256. You agreed with me on this in your first sentence above. The Addition Rule only comes into play when you have any one of two or more mutually exclusive events on the same night. So, the probability of either a poisoning or a healing (one event, not two) is 1 chance in 8 (not 1 chance in 16 as you state, which is the probability for each player, as you state).

Pika is right. It's not 1/16*1/16. It's 16/16*1/16. It doesn't matter who the first player chooses. The doc has a 1/16 chance of picking the person.

Apologies... I thought I had cleared this up!
Originally I thought my target had poisoned me so I did not want to reveal who it was, however since jfm claimed (in a roundabout way) that he was my attacker, I reread the pm from the mod and the wording was that on my way to my target I was bumped into and I felt a pain in my side... so my target was not my poisoner but probably jfm or someone else.

---

@Blacky, did you bump into something and then get a message that something didn't feel good or something similar? (Because I did.)

FP'ed by TX

No, I dont think i bumped in to anything, i was swimming and i felt a pain on my side

Which one is it?

Blacky,

Exact wording would be helpful here. Can you copy and paste?

More and more, I feel like TX is scummy.

FP'd

[TX AG 90]

However, I agree with [TX AG 90's] thoughts...you can't cure someone from poison on the night they were poisoned, unless someone like strike wolf told the mod "my action is on XXX", and XXX just happened to be poisoned....not likely....the probabilities would be 1/16 times 1/16, roughly, or one chance in 256

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of probability, for the sake of argument I will use your model: the chance of any given player being poisoned and the Doctor targeting that player would indeed be ~1/256; the chance of any player—without regard for who that player is—being poisoned and the Doctor healing them, is the sum of the chances of that happening for each player individually, so ~1/16.

I have no fundamental misunderstanding of probability. It seems you agreed with me and then disagreed with yourself. We have two independent events, both occurring on the same night. In this case you use the Product Rule and the answer is 1 chance in 256. You agreed with me on this in your first sentence above. The Addition Rule only comes into play when you have any one of two or more mutually exclusive events on the same night. So, the probability of either a poisoning or a healing (one event, not two) is 1 chance in 8 (not 1 chance in 16 as you state, which is the probability for each player, as you state).

Pika is right. It's not 1/16*1/16. It's 16/16*1/16. It doesn't matter who the first player chooses. The doc has a 1/16 chance of picking the person.

Apologies... I thought I had cleared this up!
Originally I thought my target had poisoned me so I did not want to reveal who it was, however since jfm claimed (in a roundabout way) that he was my attacker, I reread the pm from the mod and the wording was that on my way to my target I was bumped into and I felt a pain in my side... so my target was not my poisoner but probably jfm or someone else.

---

@Blacky, did you bump into something and then get a message that something didn't feel good or something similar? (Because I did.)

FP'ed by TX

No, I dont think i bumped in to anything, i was swimming and i felt a pain on my side

Which one is it?

Blacky,

Exact wording would be helpful here. Can you copy and paste?

More and more, I feel like TX is scummy.

FP'd

Why,

Because I have been pointing at you since Day1?

Blacky's wording was inconsistent as ZaBeast pointed out. Honest mistake or scum slip? Knowing exactly what was said from Mod (if anything) will help us determine that.

[Sirius Kase]

Bumping into a passive poisoner isn't the same as simply feeling a pain.

We have slightly less than 24 hours, deadline is 8 am on Thursday. I don't have any further to contribute, but I'll review before bedtime.

[Ragian]

Bumping into a passive poisoner isn't the same as simply feeling a pain.

How do you know this?

[Sirius Kase]

Bumping into a passive poisoner isn't the same as simply feeling a pain.

How do you know this?

English is my first language. Unless "bump" and "pain" have different meanings here. If that's the case, please clarify.

[Sirius Kase]

Let me start it. Normally, if someone touches someone and it doesn't hurt, it's described as a "bump". If something hurts, the word "pain" is used. Pain can be caused without touching. I'll it turns out that English is your first language, I'm moving you to the top of my list.

[Skoffin]

Do you think pika is scum, lady in red font?

FP'ed by ZaBeast with a decent find.

He has done a rather good job at avoiding actually giving us solid reasoning for lynching someone, he merely questions everything everyone else states without directly giving his own leads, he fast voted you recently and previously fast posted me (while also ignoring someone directly pointing out the possibble scummyness of pika's play in a post right before hand) so yeah I think pika is a pretty good candidate at this point.

[blacky365]

Apologies... I thought I had cleared this up!
Originally I thought my target had poisoned me so I did not want to reveal who it was, however since jfm claimed (in a roundabout way) that he was my attacker, I reread the pm from the mod and the wording was that on my way to my target I was bumped into and I felt a pain in my side... so my target was not my poisoner but probably jfm or someone else.

---

@Blacky, did you bump into something and then get a message that something didn't feel good or something similar? (Because I did.)

FP'ed by TX

No, I dont think i bumped in to anything, i was swimming and i felt a pain on my side

Which one is it?

Jesus... they both say exactly the same thing!
There is no inconsistency here...

First I said "I was bumped into and I felt a pain in my side"
Then I said what the pm said "No, I dont think i bumped in to anything, i was swimming and i felt a pain on my side"

The second time, i am saying that I did not bump in to something as opposed to something else bumping in to me... is that so difficult to understand?

Also, these posts wasting space about the probabilites 1/16 or 1/256 or 1/who the F cares! why is this getting so much airtime? it is literally meaningless and is just clogging up this ever growing message board which inevitably means ppl will end up skimming even more!

Both the above points, are just fillers, imo posts designed to look busy and being involved but actually not contributing to the overall discussion!

Sorry for my rant, but this is getting so tedious with so much fluff and so little substance.

[Sirius Kase]

Okay, you are Danish, I'll let it slide.

I didn't mean to check back so soon, this is a bit of a distraction. I really shouldn't try to play and work with the same computer.

fp by blacky, so maybe you don't need me anyway.

[Sirius Kase]

No offense meant to people who have other languages. It complicates things when I have to decide whether or not someone is intentionally being obtuse. But, it's part of the game. So, I apologize if you were offended.

[Ragian]

What's your issue with me being Danish? We're not discussing semantics here. I'm asking you how you can be sure that bumping into someone can't afflict pain. Arrogance only works if you know what you're talking about, mate

[Ragian]

Do you think pika is scum, lady in red font?

FP'ed by ZaBeast with a decent find.

He has done a rather good job at avoiding actually giving us solid reasoning for lynching someone, he merely questions everything everyone else states without directly giving his own leads, he fast voted you recently and previously fast posted me (while also ignoring someone directly pointing out the possibble scummyness of pika's play in a post right before hand) so yeah I think pika is a pretty good candidate at this point.

Then come join me here

[Pikanchion]

Uh huh, I'm not giving solid reasoning against anybody, but I'm also too quick to vote for people when I have given solid reasoning against them. Okay.

[Sirius Kase]

What's your issue with me being Danish? We're not discussing semantics here. I'm asking you how you can be sure that bumping into someone can't afflict pain. Arrogance only works if you know what you're talking about, mate

I apologized as best as I could. I can't fly over and kiss you. There is a big difference in being the bumper and the person being bumped. It's like being the hitter vs the person being hit, Except that a bump is less likely to be painful than a hit. Your attempts to make a big deal of my attempt to be helpful, followed up by being offended by my apology, seems disingenuous.

Besides, Blacky posted a good explanation himself. You no longer need my help.

I'll be back in time to unvote if someone can explain why dakky can't be scum, or must be town. If he's something else, I'm open to all ideas that are meaningful.

[Pikanchion]

If you do want me to say whom I would lynch without much solid reasoning behind it however, I'd say TX AG 90. I had actually trawled through all their posts shortly before this exchange occurred and made a couple drafts of a post with a case against them over several hours as something had felt off about their posts to me for some time, but I failed to find anything quite conclusive enough for my liking and scrapped it. Meanwhile the people I've voted for today being Skoffin and Ragian, my case against Skoffin for being too inactive I doubt even she would contest, and against Ragian I stand by what I've said about the night action contradictions.

[Ragian]

What's your issue with me being Danish? We're not discussing semantics here. I'm asking you how you can be sure that bumping into someone can't afflict pain. Arrogance only works if you know what you're talking about, mate

I apologized as best as I could. I can't fly over and kiss you. There is a big difference in being the bumper and the person being bumped. It's like being the hitter vs the person being hit, Except that a bump is less likely to be painful than a hit. Your attempts to make a big deal of my attempt to be helpful, followed up by being offended by my apology, seems disingenuous.

Besides, Blacky posted a good explanation himself. You no longer need my help.

I'll be back in time to unvote if someone can explain why dakky can't be scum, or must be town. If he's something else, I'm open to all ideas that are meaningful.

LOL!!! Best post this game so far.

Uh huh, I'm not giving solid reasoning against anybody, but I'm also too quick to vote for people when I have given solid reasoning against them. Okay.

I'm voting you because you jumped the gun voting me. You're looking for an easy lynch and I was your best candidate. Everyone else held their horses to explore what was going on.

Exactly what night contradictions am I guilty of?

[Pikanchion]

Exactly what night contradictions am I guilty of?

You claim to have gone for, and located, your favourite food two nights in a row and yet none of the mod-described results ensued.