The Hobbit Mafia [Town win]

[dakky21]

gg dakky,
& if you are lying about one thing, it must be the town, not the venge...
So this may be curtains for me, but if so, I went out on a good move, imo.

You're not the one who will be shot. And yeah, it's tiresome ZaBeast.

[Skoffin]

I hope you're not scum or I'll feel a tad silly.

[ZaBeast]

Well, this may be my last post alive as I've hammered dakky and there's still the chance he's a bomb (given mitch's fear of being the hammer), so here are my thoughts on who is scum. I kinda hope he is (a bomb), because that would give us mitch as a confirmed scum (knowing hammering would kill him, but voting wouldn't), and HS as a townie since mitch joined his BW on D1. And at that moment, there were still very much chances of getting him lynched. And if HS is town-sided, that makes MudPuppy even more scummy (see below)

Atm, I'm ambivalent on
MM: dakky pushed for a claim on D1; at the same time continues not to contribute, and MudPuppy, who I'm wary of (see below), prefers to lynch HS over him.

I lean scum for (lower numbers=more likely scum)
1. mitch: I think I explained it enough, and even more if dakky flips bomb. Beginning of the post
3. Samlem: reasons explained in previous post. Last paragraph
4. Ragian: same reason as Sam, but to a lesser extent, as he was consistent on his MM vote
2. MudPuppy: same reason as Sam, but also

• BuJ argument: he wanted to unvote thor on D1 because he didn't care who between him and MM would die but could potentially point fingers at the lynchers
• Saying he's a "member of the hesitant/cautious lot", yet is completely fine with dakky shoting at random, as long as he doesn't kill thor.
• Trying to restart a dead bandwagon about 48 hours before the deadline. Why not do that while it still had a chance to get traction? Especially when your first post of the day contained this quote:
  

  Anyway, none of this "it's another D1" nonsense... it's D2 and we need to string someone up.

  
  At this point, any wagon on someone other than dakky would have resulted in either a speed lynch or a no lynch, possibly without the lynchee having even the possibility to claim. Also, I don't see how he could think MM is less guilty of trying to fly under the radar than HS.

[*]No counter-claim. While it is certainly possible/probable that scum were given roles they could use as fake claims, that is not certain. While the lack of a counter-claim isn't much on its own, it certainly would have been a lucky guess for Smaug to have picked an unassigned dwarf in this game (not saying there can't be evil dwarfs).

• You seem to be certain that Smaug is in the game, and I don't know why. For all we know, there are 13 dwarves, some of them probably being mafia-aligned or third-party (dakky did claim Dori, and basically said he's scum after he was lynched), Gandalf, and Bilbo, and another role. You talked about "the owner of the One ring" in your first post of the day and by looking at your previous posts I found this one where you agree with mitch that there would be 15 adventurers (13 dwarves, bilbo, gandalf), so I find it weird you drop Smaug's name in there. I mean, other people have talked also of the possibility of there being Azog/Bolg; Golum, spiders, and probably others I forgot. I guess we'll know with the death scene of dakky if evil dwarves are a thing, or if Dori was just a fake claim. Since Smaug is about 100% certainly evil if he's in the setup, that may be a slip from scum.

[Samlen]

Guys you're reeeally not supposed to continue talking after a hammer has been reached. Especially if it's a post of actual substance.

[lord voldemort]

"Now stop it!" said Tom and Bert together. "The night's gettin' on, and dawn comes early. Let's get on with it!"

...

"Dawn take you all, and be stone to you!" said a voice that sounded like William's. But it wasn't. For just at that moment the light came over the hill, and there was a mighty twitter in the branches. William never spoke for he stood turned to stone as he stooped; and Bert and Tom were stuck like rocks as they looked at him.

...Don't you realize that the trolls must have a cave or a hole dug somewhere near to hide from the sun in? We must look into it!"

...

"These look like good blades," said the wizard, half drawing them and looking at them curiously. "They were not made by any troll, nor by any smith among men in these parts and days; but when we can read the runes on them, we shall know more about them."

...

"I went on to spy out our road. It will soon become dangerous and difficult....said Thorin"

It was at that moment the new elvish blade was stabbed through his heart...and Thorin, son of Thrain, son of Thror was killed by the Orc leader Bolg.

dakky21, Bolg, a Vengeful Goon allied with The Enemy has been lynched.

show: Role

DirtyDishSoap, Thorin II Oakenshield, a Gunsmith allied with Thorin’s Company has been killed.

show: Role

Night 3 will last for 72 hours, deadline Click Here.

Also once I have declared a lynch...please no talk about game content...last warning.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Gg town

[lord voldemort]

Day 3

They did not sing or tell stories that day, even though the weather improved; nor the next day, nor the day after. They had begun to feel that danger was not far away on either side.

...

"Is that The Mountain?" asked Bilbo in a solemn voice, looking at it with round eyes. He had never seen a thing that looked so big before. "Of course not!" said Balin. "That is only the beginning of the Misty Mountains...

Now Gandalf led the way. "We must not miss the road, or we shall be done for," he said....

And just then an attack by the Orc party chasing them....

and Kili has been killed.

"We need food, for one thing, and rest in reasonable safety-also it is very necessary to tackle the Misty Mountains by the proper path, or else you will get lost in them, and have to come back and start at the beginning again (if you ever get back at all)."

They asked him where he was making for, and he answered: "You are come to the very edge of the Wild, as some of you may know. Hidden somewhere ahead of us is the fair valley of Rivendell where Elrond lives in the Last Homely House. I sent a message by my friends, and we are expected."

Skoffin, Kili, a Mason allied with Thorin’s Company has been killed.

show: role

Not Voting (12): Samlen, Ragian, Thorthoth, FloresDelMal, Kamikaze Jawa, Hotshot53, madmitch, BuJaber, ZaBeast, Minister Masket, MudPuppy, Pikanchion


With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

There is currently no deadline in place

[Skoffin]

...but why

[madmitch]

WOW I was wrong about Dakky but he was right about 3rd party being in this game.Maybe Thorth is 3rd party? I know he was allied with Thorin 's party but so was skoffin

[Pikanchion]

WOW I was wrong about Dakky but he was right about 3rd party being in this game.Maybe Thorth is 3rd party? I know he was allied with Thorin 's party but so was skoffin :-s

There is still no indication that there is a third party in this game...

Vote: madmitch

[Kamikaze Jawa]

WOW I was wrong about Dakky but he was right about 3rd party being in this game.Maybe Thorth is 3rd party? I know he was allied with Thorin 's party but so was skoffin

Where is any evidence of a third party? His death scene quite clearly identifies him as being allied with the enemy so that isn't proof. This post seems pretty fishy.

Sorry but I was already suspicious of you yesterday after your very odd and continued defense of dakky, whom we have now confirmed is scum, and then this continuation of dakky's '3rd party' idea so I'm going to vote mitch.

[ZaBeast]

Sorry for posting after the lynch. I thought it was fine to post before the death scene, obviously I was wrong.

I wonder if scum have a corrupt cop or another investigative role. I didn't expect DDS to be the target, and dakky's behavior makes a little more sense if we think he wanted to out a town power role. Maybe it was just a lucky shot though. He nearly managed to get out of a lynch by looking too fishy, which is quite a feat. Maybe it was just a very ballsy move.
I'm actually not sure as to what that power role (gunsmith) actually does though. I'd assume people with guns are people that can kill other people, right? And that would either mean vigs could be caught in the crossfire or that we don't have any. Or are scum the only people with guns, making it a flavor cop?

Since dakky was not a bomb, I find mitch less suspicious. He did soft-claim a power role and didn't mention any action when he doubled down on dakky's role fishing though. I'm still open on pressuring him, but not my first choice atm. And I agree his last post is also pretty weird though.

I am going to go with MudPuppy though, most of the points I made earlier stand, except the last one about Smaug which was probably a bit too thin. I think it is likely now that the scum faction is consisted of various "evil" characters not necessary connected to each other (bolg, Smaug, ...), since they're sided with "the ennemy". The ennemy could also mean the orcs and Sauron (Bolg, Azog, the Necromancer, no-name orc,...). Not that it really makes a difference Vote MudPuppy

Also,

Finally, and this discussion got burried down over the debate over whether we should lynch dakky, but skoff posted a while ago that he'd like everyone to post who his top 3 scum picks were and I think it's a good idea.
So far, I've seen such lists from DDS, Flores, me and BuJ (sorry if I forgot anybody)

I skimmed back through the thread and found some more interesting posts

MM: never actually voted for dakky, closest was

FOS dakky and this is VERY close to a vote, but I want to see your reply to this first.

(here)His lack of contribution on D1 continued throughout day 2. dakky voted him on D1, to get him to 6 (L-3). He did say he intended to unvote after a claim though. Was one of the persons skoff defended the most D1, so may be the other mason though.

So my naughty list changed a little: 1. MudPuppy; 2. mitch; 3. MM; 4. Samlem

Funny part, don't take it too seriously

show

[MudPuppy]

I assume mitch is basing his 3rd party evidence on the Elrond reference. I don't think that is an accurate conclusion but I also don't think it is really scummy either... as I don't see how it would help scum.

That said, I'll probably lean to mitch/hotshot for my vote today... especially if it comes down to mitch and I.

I'm happy I was wrong about dakky. I still don't understand his play as it didn't make sense from a numbers standpoint: why sacrifice himself to be able to shoot a single townie?!? I fully understand if folks find my defense of him scummy and am willing to claim if it comes to that... but scum probably wouldn't be so overt in their defense of him as I was. Also, I was one of the first to put a real case against dakky. I ultimately chalked up his play to "dakky being dakky" after multiple folks said poking (and I inferred this to mean baseless poking) is his meta:

I don't find dakky scummy. When town, he always comes off as poking anything (and often gets lynched for it) in order to move the game forward.

His poking didn't get him lynched in Mass Effects... but of course, then he wasn't town, was he?

And yeah dakky likes poking people, which is generally a good thing as town to get scum to slip up. Acting that way as scum is just a good way to make it seem like you're still town. Either way, I don't see it as indicative towards dakky's alignment as of yet.

Props to Thor for at least noting that his poking in ME was when he was scum.

I've said all along I didn't like dakky's play and his flip hasn't changed my mind. I also don't like Thor's play (though he's outplayed/outguessed me in terms of dakky)... but I am convinced Thor is town. I was strongly leaning town (more accurately non-scum as I thought jester was an outside possibility) on dakky and chose to defend him based on that.

[Pikanchion]

I assume mitch is basing his 3rd party evidence on the Elrond reference. I don't think that is an accurate conclusion but I also don't think it is really scummy either... as I don't see how it would help scum.

You don't see how propagating the idea that the mod-confirmed townie is a third party (and therefore a reasonable candidate for the lynch) could help scum..?

[Ragian]

Good job, people voting dakky! I was wrong. Whatcha gonna do...

Let's have everyone chime in before mitch is speedlynched. (Please let me be two for two on advocating against scum lynches.)

[ZaBeast]

Oh, it seems I missed the part of mitch's post where he continues to say he thinks thor might be third party. Makes him far more scummy, but I don't think speedlynching anyone is a good idea, so I'll hold on to my vote on MP.
btw @MP, dakky wasn't scum in ME. He was cult, which is still a non-town role. Thor was scum.

[MudPuppy]

I assume mitch is basing his 3rd party evidence on the Elrond reference. I don't think that is an accurate conclusion but I also don't think it is really scummy either... as I don't see how it would help scum.

You don't see how propagating the idea that the mod-confirmed townie is a third party (and therefore a reasonable candidate for the lynch) could help scum..?

I think that nobody else will believe that Elrond is non-town and that it was basically a misread by mitch. Effectively, it's the same defense I had of dakky, however ("mitch being mitch")... and that logic didn't work out too well for me last time. So, while I think it may not be scum trying to set Elrond up for a lynch, I do find it to be poor logic... And his suggestion that Thor may be third party despite the LoVo town confirmation and Thor's hard push on dakky... I can't begin to explain it.

So, perhaps you have a point but mitch's post has a greater chance of incriminating mitch than it ever had of incriminating Elrond and friends... so, a very poor strategy by mitch if he is scum.

[Thorthoth]

I need to recap,

Town Losses.
1. One way or another, we've lost three town (DDS-Thorin, skoffin-Kili & Bilbo too.)
2. Storywise, these should have been among the biggest town power roles. (Gandalf and Bard would be the others.)
3. But all of their powers kinda sucked, actually...
4. I would guess that Kili's brother Fili is the other mason.

Scum Loss (dakky-Blog)
It's good we got that vengeful power out of the way early.
If the town/scum ratio was 0.75/0.25 then we're running exactly even... but that ratio is just a guess.

Mitch is playing badly if he's scum, but he's playing even worse if he's town.
So I do still feel that a Mitch lynch is a reasonable route to go.

As for the rest of you, I need to give that some thought. I'll post again then.

[BuJaber]

I suggest that If there are 2 or more masons still in the game they should come forward. Skoffin's death is a double tragedy because we have no easy way of confirming who the other masons are, so he died a vanilla townie basically.
If only one person comes out with a mason claim they will get lynched by policy because it is basically just a free fake claim. So only come out if you have a back up. (You will be lynched/investigated anyway but it would be 1 investigation for the price of two). I would love to see scum take the bait and for 2 of them to come forward together. (wishful thinking?)


As for mitch: As I said before I believed dakky was scum, but I believed that dakky and mitch cannot be on the same team. So unless new evidence is introduced, as far as I'm concerned dakky flipping scum is the best defense for mitch.

[ZaBeast]

I suggest that If there are 2 or more masons still in the game they should come forward. Skoffin's death is a double tragedy because we have no easy way of confirming who the other masons are, so he died a vanilla townie basically.
If only one person comes out with a mason claim they will get lynched by policy because it is basically just a free fake claim. So only come out if you have a back up. (You will be lynched/investigated anyway but it would be 1 investigation for the price of two). I would love to see scum take the bait and for 2 of them to come forward together. (wishful thinking?)

I don't know if you're scum of just misguided, but masons are not much more than vanilla townies. Therefore, having them come forward is just going to reduce the pool of players that could have power roles, and making it easier for scum to pick with not much gain for town. Also, we can be sure there' at least one mason. Therefore, if a single mason claims and isn't counterclaimed, we can assume he's not scum.

[Pikanchion]

Oh, it seems I missed the part of mitch's post where he continues to say he thinks thor might be third party. Makes him far more scummy, but I don't think speedlynching anyone is a good idea, so I'll hold on to my vote on MP.

You yourself have noted this (and fairly recently too) on a previous occasion, why are you seemingly now surprised by it?

Wow what a lucky night for us especially Thort, Dakky asking about actions does sound scummy but I think he might be on to something. Do we start all over with new suspects or should we be like Rags and stick to our D1 favorites and push them harder? I was suspicious of Thort until he was proven town and then Ifollowed Skoffin lead on Hot Shot but basically the vote was split and time ran out so there was not much pressure put on the suspects we had,right now I am thinking either MM or HS ,they seemed to be the popular ones at the moment

@ BuJaber, you are right I am very cautious in this game, I am trying to change my play style and it is hard to break bad habits, I am still wary of THORTH maybe he is 3rd party ? just something off there, FOS against Dakky and Rags for asking about who did what? but why was Dakky voted for and not Rags ? they are both guilty, I can relate to what Flores (that little ray of sunshine...Not :lol: ) said because I take a while to read and post,I am a little older than most or all of you,I remember having a phone on the wall with a crank ,our number was 1 long crank and 3 short ones,no shit guys ,anyway I am torn between H.S. and MM from D1 ,not quite sure who to vote for yet and I will wait for a while

How can you be say you were suspicious of Thor (notice the past tense), but then go on another post a few hours later saying you still are, especially when the only thing he did in between was FOS you. Kinda looks like an OMGUS to me. Also thor has been confirmed town, I don't see why you would think he's third party. Unless your role pm doesn't talk about Thorin's company, that is, or you have good reasons to think he's in a cult now. (1st post 2nd post)

madmitch has actually been rather inconsistant with what they say that they believe generally (not just about Thorthoth in particular) since the mod confirmation:
Day 1

Mod Announcement

I am confirming that Thorthoth is aligned with Thorin's Company

I don't know why the mod would give out info about Thorth ? granted I am glad that I was wrong and did not help to hang him

Day 2

Wow what a lucky night for us especially Thort, Dakky asking about actions does sound scummy but I think he might be on to something.

I am still wary of THORTH maybe he is 3rd party ?

Wtf ?? is going on in this game,Thort deserved a 3 day suspension ,he was actually getting quite mean and rude, I know he was declared town but the way is has been acting is weird, it was like he was taunting us , I am town and you can't touch me , I sure in hell don't like agreeing with Dakky because he is usually on my ass but maybe he has a point , shit I don't know , something off,I am not sure what to do ,

At this point we seem to have 2 confirmed town Thorth ( innocent child ) and Dakky ( vengeful townie ). So you either believe Dakky claim or not, why not vote for someone else and check him at night then we would all know for sure.

I find it very strange that BuJaber and Pika are i n such a rush to hang Dakky, scum mates maybe ? Well I am not going to hammer than get killed if he is killing the hammer, so if you two think it is scummy to want to stay alive to bad,I don't trust either of you now, just trying to figure which one is scummier than I will place a vote on one of you

:cry: :cry: :cry: Oh BOO WHO , I am on Thorts scum list , I know he is town but the way he is playing makes him look beyond scummy, I will fly anyway I want :evil: :x

@ Thort what do you know ? Why do you want to finish it so badly?

Let me try to explain my post about Thort so EVERYONE can understand,,, I MEANT I was surprise no-one killed him because he was such a big pain in the ass, just like I was surprised no-one killed MM and Pika for the wasted LOTR POSTS. I understand the mafia probably thought he is not worth while to kill now ,and us guys really don't want to lose any of our players even if they are a big pain in the ass.It was nice when he couldn't post :lol: :lol: As for Dakky I am not sure what side he is on ? I have no problem if you guys want to hang him ,but I will not get on that wagon because for sure he will take me with him, any other time sure

@ Rags, you are right,but I am actually scared, at least when someone votes for me I have a chanch to survive, here I don't think I will, OKAY I WILL as long it ir not the hammer, CAN I HAVE A VOTE COUNT PLEASE

@ Thort skim much?? already voted for Dakky, and wanting to be MVP is just plain scummy, there is something not right about you ? maybe Dakky is right and you started of as an innocent child but turned into something else like 3rd party, hell I don't know ? I just don't like your attitude in this game.

Day 3

WOW I was wrong about Dakky but he was right about 3rd party being in this game.Maybe Thorth is 3rd party? I know he was allied with Thorin 's party but so was skoffin :-s

I'm not entirely sure what to make of it but it comes across as scummy to me.

---

My suspicions about the setup of the game seem to be accurate based off of the roles revealed last night; this is a low-mid power game and not everybody will have an action at night.

• Gandalf - Confirmed Town - Thorthoth
- Primary Good character throughout both The Hobbit and The LOTR trilogy
- Definitely Town

• Bilbo - Alternating Bulletproof - IcePack
- Main character of The Hobbit
- Definitely Town

• Bard - Unknown Town Power Role (not Mason) - Unknown
- Can't be on the same team as Smaug for obvious reasons
- Definitely Town

• Thorin - Investigator - DirtyDishSoap
- May become just a teeny tiny bit selfish during the latter part of The Hobbit, but otherwise is the leader of the Company and reason for its existence
- Definitely Town

• Fíli - Mason - Unknown
- Close blood relative of Thorin
- Important to the story
- Almost definitely Town

• Kíli - Mason - Skoffin
- Close blood relative of Thorin
- Important to the story
- Almost definitely Town

• Balin - Unknown Town Role - Unknown
- Blood relative of Thorin
- Important to the story
- Of the royal line of Durin
- Very likely Town

• Dwalin - Unknown Town Role - Unknown
- Blood relative of Thorin
- Of the royal line of Durin
- Very likely Town

• Óin - Probably Vanilla Townie - Unknown
- Blood relative of Thorin
- Direct descendant of Durin
- Very likely Town

• Glóin - Probably Vanilla Townie - Unknown
- Blood relative of Thorin
- Direct descendant of Durin
- Father of Gimli
- Very likely Town

• Dori/Bolg - Vengeful Goon - dakky21
- Remote relative of Thorin
- Largely unimportant
- Probably Town

• Nori - Vanilla Townie or Scum - Unknown
- Remote relative of Thorin
- Largely unimportant
- Probably Town

• Ori - Vanilla Townie or Scum - Unknown
- Remote relative of Thorin
- Largely unimportant
- Probably Town

• Bifur - Vanilla Townie or Scum - Unknown
- Unrelated to Thorin
- Largely unimportant
- Possibly Town

• Bofur - Vanilla Townie or Scum - Unknown
- Unrelated to Thorin
- Largely unimportant
- Possibly Town

• Bombur - Vanilla Townie or Scum - Unknown
- Unrelated to Thorin
- Largely unimportant
- Mostly just a liability in the book and comic relief in the films
- Possibly Town

I'm also considering treating Minister Masket as confirmed town by way of being Fíli at this point, based on each player's interactions with Skoffin, it's ether him or Ragian by my reckoning. I don't think any Mason should claim unless they are Minister Masket, or are claiming to counter a claim by Minister Masket however.

[ZaBeast]

@Pika I just would have expected him to stop saying Thor may be 3rd party especially now that dakky has flipped scum.

[ZaBeast]

@Pika I just would have expected him to stop saying Thor may be 3rd party especiallynow that dakky has flipped scum.

fixed. It seems I have the tendency to add unnecessary adverbs.

[madmitch]

Sorry guys I screwed up For some reason I had it in my head that cult and mason were the same I should know better but my brain does not work sometime

[Samlen]

I'm pretty sure mitch is just going off of dakky's last words that this must be a bastard game when he think thor isn't town. Also @pika do you really believe any of the dwarves could be evil at this point or is that just a list of likely fake claims for the scum? Cause I can see the second part but not the first one.